What's in a BLT? - Or, Configuration of the Tower *UPDATED 11/23*

[dizfan]

*** EDITED AT 10:30 PM, 7/02/2010 ***

Well, it looks like I was premature in thinking DVD did another Declaration for BLT today. When I checked OCC about 3:00 PM today, I noticed a Condo Related record showing the 13th Amendment for BLT.and declaring Phases 65 through 76. My wife and I were amazed that DVD would declare more Units for BLT since there was already 800,000+ points in its declared-but-unsold inventory. Having more declared inventory is great news for the DVC members because it means there are more rooms to book on points. But it also means that there are fewer rooms that Disney controls and can rent through CRO.

Tonight, I went back into OCC to see how many DVC deeds were posted for today. However, when I searched for all of today's Disney records, BLT's Condo Related record didn't appear. I tried several searches without any luck. Fortunately, since I previously downloaded a copy of the Declaration I had its unique OCC record number (20100387253). A search by that record number brought back a one-page record labeled "VOID." It looks like the BLT record had been pulled off of OCC.

So I guess DVD hasn't made a new Declaration for BLT after all. . . or at least not as of today.

For the time being, I'm going to keep my original posted message but just pull back the prematurely updated chart. Perhaps after the July 4th weekend DVD will file a new BLT Declaration. Stay tuned for further updates.

*** END OF EDIT ***



DVD has declared more BLT Units for the DVC membership. On June 4, 2010, DVD made the 13th Amendment to BLT's Master Declaration of Condominium, declaring 29 Units containing 38 two-bedroom villas for the DVC inventory. The 38 villas include 20 dedicated two-bedroom villas and 18 lockoff two-bedroom villas. The villas are located on the entire 11th floor and on the 12th floor from the north crescent around to the south elevator alcove. This new declaration also brings a total of 746,320 points into the DVC inventory. The 13th Amendment was recorded by the Orange County Comptroller on July 2, 2010.

With this latest declaration, DVD has declared 86.67% of BLT for the DVC membership. There are only 764,075 points left at BLT before it will be completely declared for the DVC.

Although 86.67% of BLT has been declared, only 59.52% of BLT's estimated 5,733,530 points have been sold, based on deeds recorded with the Orange County Comptroller through June 30, 2010.

There has been talk that DVD is permitting new DVC members to buy entry level contracts for as little as 50 points. Through June 30, 2010, I have yet to see a master contract at BLT for less than 100 points.

It looks like the Declaration may be showing up again today.
Document ID 20100388810 is a Condo Related Bay Lake Tower with 27 pages listed. They haven't scanned the document yet, so the document can't be downloaded.

 

[dizfan]

Sales numbers for contracts I've found on the Orange County Comptroller's web site for contracts through 6/30/2010. I excluded a few contracts that have invalid Units for BLT and also removed a few contracts that were "corrected deed"s.

20,631 total contracts
3,412,271 total points sold

Unit	UY	#Cont	Sold	Total
02A	Feb	232	38577	39280
02B	Mar	137	19238	19640
03A	Mar	276	38642	39280
03B	Apr	137	19243	19640
04A	Apr	266	38336	39280
04B	Jun	128	19283	19640
05A	---	0	---	---
05B	Aug	142	19449	19640
05C	Aug	131	19243	19640
06A	Sep	252	38285	39280
06B	Sep	133	19179	19640
07A	Oct	142	19222	19640
07B	Oct	153	19233	19640
07C	Dec	132	18991	19640
08A	Dec	279	38696	39280
08B	Feb	102	19436	19640
09A	Dec	123	19233	19640
09B	Feb	119	19233	19640
09C	Feb	115	19229	19640
10A	Mar	258	38659	39280
10B	Apr	149	19224	19640
11A	Feb	108	19222	19640
11B	Feb	99	19236	19640
11C	Feb	121	19501	19640
12A	Jun	328	38470	39280
12B	Feb	107	19243	39280
13A	Aug	170	19384	19640
13B	Feb	109	19244	19640
13C	Feb	99	19233	19640
14A	Feb	195	38484	39280
14B	Oct	138	19420	19640
15A	Feb	99	19222	19640
15B	Dec	197	19050	19640
15C	Feb	111	19241	19640
16A	Dec	264	38212	39280
16B	Feb	99	19145	19640
17A	Feb	104	19408	19640
17B	Feb	106	19232	19640
17C	Feb	101	19237	19640
18A	Dec	288	37731	39280
18B	Feb	102	19077	19640
19A	Feb	105	19240	19640
19B	Sep	112	17524	19640
19C	Jun	227	38547	39280
20A	Feb	243	38630	39280
20B	---	0	---	---
21A	Sep	131	16592	19640
21B	Sep	128	19272	19640
21C	Sep	142	18674	19640
22A	Feb	200	38121	39280
22B	Aug	159	19223	19640
23A	Feb	205	38630	39280
23B	Oct	130	18892	19640
24A	Feb	112	19545	19640
24B	Feb	100	18869	19640
24C	Feb	101	19240	19640
25A	Feb	201	38468	39280
25B	Feb	113	19063	19640
26A	Feb	103	19047	19640
26B	Feb	111	19080	19640
26C	Feb	208	38900	39280
27A	Feb	196	38483	39280
27B	Feb	108	19230	19640
28A	Feb	107	18871	19640
28B	Feb	101	19234	19640
28C	Feb	104	18684	19640
29A	Feb	199	38606	39280
29B	Feb	106	19231	19640
30A	Feb	200	38476	39280
30B	Feb	107	19531	19640
31A	Apr	134	18882	19640
31B	Feb	115	19487	19640
31C	Feb	112	18832	19640
32A	Aug	269	38007	39280
32B	Jun	99	15975	19640
33A	Jun	124	19233	19640
33B	Oct	143	19022	19640
33C	Feb	203	38164	39280
34A	Feb	200	37681	39280
34B	Feb	115	18935	19640
35A	Feb	106	19121	19640
35B	Feb	104	18972	19640
35C	Jun	130	19177	19640
36A	Feb	202	38673	39280
36B	Feb	110	19228	19640
37A	Feb	202	38175	39280
37B	Feb	111	19217	19640
38A	Oct	133	18231	19640
38B	Oct	68	11930	19640
38C	Oct	3	825	19640
39A	Feb	213	38466	39280
39B	Oct	1	250	19640
40A	Oct	2	650	19640
40B	Oct	1	250	19640
40C	Feb	210	37901	39280
41A	Feb	199	37913	39280
41B	Feb	101	18685	19640
42A	Mar	106	18740	19640
42B	---	0	---	---
42C	Feb	114	18750	19640
43A	Feb	214	37220	39280
43B	Feb	96	18021	19640
44A	Feb	198	36953	39280
44B	Mar	103	18201	19640
45A	Aug	108	17287	19640
45B	Apr	115	18407	19640
45C	Mar	115	19205	19640
46A	Mar	192	37585	39280
46B	Mar	109	18215	19640
47A	Feb	128	17638	19640
47B	Jun	99	17825	19640
47C	Dec	241	34360	39280
48A	Apr	177	31650	39280
48B	Jun	99	18718	19640
49A	Mar	114	18072	19640
49B	Feb	110	18461	19640
49C	Feb	126	18513	19640
50A	Feb	161	24004	39280
50B	Jun	122	17990	19640
51A	Feb	77	10127	39280
51B	Feb	108	18186	19640
52A	Feb	102	17682	19640
52B	Aug	102	18066	19640
52C	Mar	103	17724	19640
53A	Apr	193	34667	39280
53B	Mar	29	4638	19640
54A	Apr	8	1160	19640
54B	Apr	10	1350	19640
54C	Apr	1	425	39280
55A	Apr	143	27393	39280
55B	Sep	74	11131	19640
56A	Aug	93	14483	19640
56B	Jun	80	14252	19640
56C	Dec	41	6735	19640
57A	Jun	167	33149	39280
58A	Jun	176	34998	39280
58B	Jun	16	2715	19640
59A	Jun	58	11065	19640
59B	Aug	52	8815	19640
60A	Jun	170	30789	39280
60B	Aug	0	---	19640
82A	Mar	226	33598	34975
82B	Feb	194	34250	34975
82C	Jun	244	33820	34975
87A	Feb	183	33852	34975
87B	Feb	187	34250	34975
87C	Feb	108	19361	19640
88A	Feb	198	34036	34975
88B	Feb	196	34422	34975
88C	Feb	124	19404	19640
89A	Feb	197	34099	34975
89B	Feb	175	34408	34975
89C	Apr	100	17118	19640

Month		#Cont	Points
Oct08		181	29849
Nov08		1362	215967
Dec08		867	147293
Jan09		1211	199114
Feb09		1258	190615
Mar09		1383	237144
Apr09		1328	232902
May09		938	164890
Jun09		1177	204704
Jul09		1804	289668
Aug09		1362	227660
Sep09		1188	199099
Oct09		1230	210144
Nov09		863	127480
Dec09		542	85459
Jan10		646	107887
Feb10		469	75148
Mar10		650	109520
Apr10		703	116301
May10		701	115602
Jun10		767	125725

 

[Greysword]

Excellent job, gentlemen, as always!

These statistics paint an interesting picture, and I wonder if DVD is paying attention to them. It seems the best month for BLT sales was in July of last year, when they had the Wishmeister presentations at WDW. Other presentation attempts since then have been lackluster for sales.

Also, notice the quick drop in Nov 2009, which is indicative of the predicted "lag" in people feeling the effects of the recession.

Thanks for the details!

 

[arthur06]

I need BLT to declare more units. That way the people that have BLT WL'ed will get there room. Then I can get my AKL WL to come thru!

 

[dizfan]

Also, notice the quick drop in Nov 2009, which is indicative of the predicted "lag" in people feeling the effects of the recession.

October 4, 2009 DVD raised BLT to $120 base price. Around that same time, they had significantly better incentives for AKV. Not surprisingly, sales slowed at BLT and increased at AKV. I think BLT was $115/pt with incentives while AKV was around $96/pt with incentives.

Many contracts for BLT were started just before the price increase and increased the number of BLT contracts on the OCC web site for October. By November, most of the pre-increase sales were closed and recorded on the OCC. Even some of the early November contracts were part of the pre-price increase.

 

[wdrl]

As dizfan mentioned in a post this morning, BLT Declaration #13 was refiled today (7/06/2010) with the Orange County Comptroller. Substantively, today's refiled Declaration appears to be the same as the one that was filed and voided on 7/02/2010. Here is what I posted on 7/02/2010 before that Declaration was voided:

DVD has declared more BLT Units for the DVC membership. On June 4, 2010, DVD made the 13th Amendment to BLT's Master Declaration of Condominium, declaring 29 Units containing 38 two-bedroom villas for the DVC inventory. The 38 villas include 20 dedicated two-bedroom villas and 18 lockoff two-bedroom villas. The villas are located on the entire 11th floor and on the 12th floor from the north crescent around to the south elevator alcove. This new declaration also brings a total of 746,320 points into the DVC inventory. The 13th Amendment was recorded by the Orange County Comptroller on July 6, 2010.

With this latest declaration, DVD has declared 86.67% of BLT for the DVC membership. There are only 764,075 points left at BLT before it will be completely declared for the DVC. Actually, since DVD cannot sell more than 98% of a resort, there are only 649,404 points left to be declared for the Membership.

Although 86.67% of BLT has been declared, only 59.52% of BLT's estimated 5,733,530 points have been sold, based on deeds recorded with the Orange County Comptroller through June 30, 2010.

There has been talk that DVD is permitting new DVC members to buy entry level contracts for as little as 50 points. Through June 30, 2010, I have yet to see a master contract at BLT for less than 100 points.

I'm amazed by the timing and size of this Declaration. As the chart shows, BLT now has over 1,557,000 unsold-but-declared points. That is equivalent of 79 two-bedroom villas. This means that if all of the BLT owners used their points exclusively at BLT, there would still be 79 two-bedroom villas available for non-BLT owners. Another way to look at it is that the entire VWL resort only has 1,962,300 points.

The bottom line is that this latest Declaration is good news for Members who have a waitlist. Good luck to all Members who are in waitlist limbo!!

 

[arthur06]

The bottom line is that this latest Declaration is good news for Members who have a waitlist. Good luck to all Members who are in waitlist limbo!!

How soon do these points go into the inventory? Will they load today? Tomorrow? Any idea?

 

[wdrl]

How soon do these points go into the inventory? Will they load today? Tomorrow? Any idea?

These points became part of the DVC inventory on June 4, 2010, the date that DVD made the Declaration. Although the Declaration was not recorded at OCC until today, the actual process of turning over part of DVD's inventory to the DVC occurs whenever DVD says it happens. Its much like when you buy a piece of real estate: You become the owner on the closing date, even though the actual filing and recording of the deed with the County might be several days or weeks later.

I take it you are still waiting for your waitlist to come through?

 

[arthur06]

I take it you are still waiting for your waitlist to come through?

Yep, I'm still waiting... Might just have to add on with the condition that I get the room I want...

 

[dizfan]

Sales numbers for contracts I've found on the Orange County Comptroller's web site for contracts through 7/29/2010.

21,409 total contracts
3,536,342 total points sold

Unit	UY	#Cont	Sold	Total
02A	Feb	232	38577	39280
02B	Mar	137	19238	19640
03A	Mar	276	38642	39280
03B	Apr	137	19243	19640
04A	Apr	266	38336	39280
04B	Jun	128	19283	19640
05A	---	0	---	---
05B	Aug	142	19449	19640
05C	Aug	131	19243	19640
06A	Sep	252	38285	39280
06B	Sep	133	19179	19640
07A	Oct	142	19222	19640
07B	Oct	153	19233	19640
07C	Dec	133	19091	19640
08A	Dec	279	38696	39280
08B	Feb	102	19436	19640
09A	Dec	123	19233	19640
09B	Feb	119	19233	19640
09C	Feb	115	19229	19640
10A	Mar	258	38659	39280
10B	Apr	149	19224	19640
11A	Feb	108	19222	19640
11B	Feb	99	19236	19640
11C	Feb	121	19501	19640
12A	Jun	328	38470	39280
12B	Feb	107	19243	39280
13A	Aug	170	19384	19640
13B	Feb	109	19244	19640
13C	Feb	99	19233	19640
14A	Feb	195	38484	39280
14B	Oct	138	19420	19640
15A	Feb	99	19222	19640
15B	Dec	197	19050	19640
15C	Feb	111	19241	19640
16A	Dec	265	38312	39280
16B	Feb	99	19145	19640
17A	Feb	104	19408	19640
17B	Feb	106	19232	19640
17C	Feb	101	19237	19640
18A	Dec	290	38246	39280
18B	Feb	102	19077	19640
19A	Feb	105	19240	19640
19B	Sep	118	18534	19640
19C	Jun	227	38547	39280
20A	Feb	243	38630	39280
20B	---	0	---	---
21A	Sep	137	17869	19640
21B	Sep	128	19272	19640
21C	Sep	142	18674	19640
22A	Feb	200	38121	39280
22B	Aug	159	19223	19640
23A	Feb	205	38630	39280
23B	Oct	130	18892	19640
24A	Feb	112	19545	19640
24B	Feb	100	18869	19640
24C	Feb	101	19240	19640
25A	Feb	201	38468	39280
25B	Feb	113	19063	19640
26A	Feb	103	19047	19640
26B	Feb	111	19080	19640
26C	Feb	208	38900	39280
27A	Feb	196	38483	39280
27B	Feb	108	19230	19640
28A	Feb	107	18871	19640
28B	Feb	101	19234	19640
28C	Feb	104	18684	19640
29A	Feb	199	38606	39280
29B	Feb	106	19231	19640
30A	Feb	200	38476	39280
30B	Feb	107	19531	19640
31A	Apr	134	18882	19640
31B	Feb	115	19487	19640
31C	Feb	112	18832	19640
32A	Aug	272	38337	39280
32B	Jun	103	16815	19640
33A	Jun	124	19233	19640
33B	Oct	143	19022	19640
33C	Feb	203	38164	39280
34A	Feb	200	37681	39280
34B	Feb	115	18935	19640
35A	Feb	106	19121	19640
35B	Feb	104	18972	19640
35C	Jun	130	19177	19640
36A	Feb	202	38673	39280
36B	Feb	110	19228	19640
37A	Feb	202	38175	39280
37B	Feb	111	19217	19640
38A	Oct	133	18231	19640
38B	Oct	99	16773	19640
38C	Oct	26	4230	19640
39A	Feb	213	38466	39280
39B	Oct	2	450	19640
40A	Oct	2	650	19640
40B	Oct	1	250	19640
40C	Feb	210	37901	39280
41A	Feb	199	37913	39280
41B	Feb	101	18685	19640
42A	Mar	106	18740	19640
42B	---	0	---	---
42C	Feb	114	18750	19640
43A	Feb	216	37298	39280
43B	Feb	96	18021	19640
44A	Feb	198	36953	39280
44B	Mar	104	18251	19640
45A	Aug	113	18332	19640
45B	Apr	116	18607	19640
45C	Mar	115	19205	19640
46A	Mar	192	37585	39280
46B	Mar	109	18215	19640
47A	Feb	128	17638	19640
47B	Jun	103	18115	19640
47C	Dec	257	36555	39280
48A	Apr	177	31650	39280
48B	Jun	100	18843	19640
49A	Mar	114	18072	19640
49B	Feb	110	18461	19640
49C	Feb	126	18513	19640
50A	Feb	210	29364	39280
50B	Jun	125	18560	19640
51A	Feb	80	10607	39280
51B	Feb	108	18186	19640
52A	Feb	103	18002	19640
52B	Aug	103	18226	19640
52C	Mar	107	18099	19640
53A	Apr	201	36117	39280
53B	Mar	45	6473	19640
54A	Apr	8	1160	19640
54B	Apr	15	1910	19640
54C	Apr	3	925	39280
55A	Apr	149	28718	39280
55B	Sep	101	15491	19640
56A	Aug	111	16918	19640
56B	Jun	100	18097	19640
56C	Dec	100	15370	19640
57A	Jun	173	34404	39280
58A	Jun	180	35768	39280
58B	Jun	22	3710	19640
59A	Jun	67	12715	19640
59B	Aug	95	15290	19640
60A	Jun	180	32285	39280
60B	Aug	73	11053	19640
61A	Aug	64	11145	19640
61B	---	0	---	---
61C	Dec	28	4682	39280
62A	Aug	17	3085	39280
62B	Aug	55	9387	19640
63A	Sep	12	2200	19640
63B	Aug	41	7610	19640
64A	---	0	---	---
64B	---	0	---	---
82A	Mar	226	33598	34975
82B	Feb	194	34250	34975
82C	Jun	244	33820	34975
87A	Feb	183	33852	34975
87B	Feb	187	34250	34975
87C	Feb	108	19361	19640
88A	Feb	198	34036	34975
88B	Feb	196	34422	34975
88C	Feb	124	19404	19640
89A	Feb	197	34099	34975
89B	Feb	175	34408	34975
89C	Apr	100	17118	19640

Month		#Cont	Points
Oct08		181	29849
Nov08		1362	215967
Dec08		867	147293
Jan09		1211	199114
Feb09		1258	190615
Mar09		1383	237144
Apr09		1328	232902
May09		938	164890
Jun09		1177	204704
Jul09		1804	289668
Aug09		1362	227660
Sep09		1188	199099
Oct09		1230	210144
Nov09		863	127480
Dec09		542	85459
Jan10		646	107887
Feb10		469	75148
Mar10		650	109520
Apr10		703	116301
May10		701	115602
Jun10		767	125725
Jul10		778	124071

 

[wdrl]

Sales numbers for contracts I've found on the Orange County Comptroller's web site for contracts through 7/29/2010.

21,409 total contracts
3,536,342 total points sold

Good work, dizfan!

I show 3,536,202 total points sold for BLT. Do you think we ought to go through all 21,409 contracts to see which number is correct?

As of July 29,2010, BLT has sold about 61.68% of its 5,733,530 total points. Disney has declared 86.67% of BLT for the DVC membership. Since no Disney deeds were posted at OCC for July 30th or 31st, these numbers represent the total points sold through July 2010.

 

[dizfan]

I show 3,536,202 total points sold for BLT. Do you think we ought to go through all 21,409 contracts to see which number is correct?

 

[wdrl]

BLT had a very good sales month in August 2010. According to data collected from deeds recorded at the Orange County Comptroller's website in August, DVD sold 168,516 BLT points. Its the best single month so far in 2010, and the best month since October 2009.

Not surprisingly, a lot of contracts recorded at OCC in August were for the August and September UYs. Buyers, both new and existing member doing add-ons, are taking advantage of buying points right before the end of the UY so that they can get 2009 points as well as 2010 points.

If BLT maintains its current rate of monthly sales, then DVD will reach the 98% maximum sales limit at BLT in about 11 months.

 

[dizfan]

Sales numbers for contracts I've found on the Orange County Comptroller's web site for contracts through 8/31/2010.

22,444 total contracts
3,703,698 total points sold

Unit	UY	#Cont	Sold	Total
02A	Feb	232	38577	39280
02B	Mar	137	19238	19640
03A	Mar	276	38642	39280
03B	Apr	137	19243	19640
04A	Apr	266	38336	39280
04B	Jun	128	19283	19640
05A	---	0	---	---
05B	Aug	142	19449	19640
05C	Aug	131	19243	19640
06A	Sep	253	38445	39280
06B	Sep	133	19179	19640
07A	Oct	142	19222	19640
07B	Oct	153	19233	19640
07C	Dec	133	19091	19640
08A	Dec	279	38696	39280
08B	Feb	102	19436	19640
09A	Dec	123	19233	19640
09B	Feb	119	19233	19640
09C	Feb	115	19229	19640
10A	Mar	259	38784	39280
10B	Apr	149	19224	19640
11A	Feb	108	19222	19640
11B	Feb	99	19236	19640
11C	Feb	121	19501	19640
12A	Jun	328	38470	39280
12B	Feb	107	19243	39280
13A	Aug	170	19384	19640
13B	Feb	109	19244	19640
13C	Feb	99	19233	19640
14A	Feb	195	38484	39280
14B	Oct	138	19420	19640
15A	Feb	99	19222	19640
15B	Dec	197	19050	19640
15C	Feb	111	19241	19640
16A	Dec	265	38312	39280
16B	Feb	99	19145	19640
17A	Feb	104	19408	19640
17B	Feb	106	19232	19640
17C	Feb	101	19237	19640
18A	Dec	290	38246	39280
18B	Feb	102	19077	19640
19A	Feb	105	19240	19640
19B	Sep	123	19404	19640
19C	Jun	227	38547	39280
20A	Feb	243	38630	39280
20B	---	0	---	---
21A	Sep	139	18319	19640
21B	Sep	129	19432	19640
21C	Sep	143	18834	19640
22A	Feb	200	38121	39280
22B	Aug	159	19223	19640
23A	Feb	205	38630	39280
23B	Oct	130	18892	19640
24A	Feb	112	19545	19640
24B	Feb	100	18869	19640
24C	Feb	101	19240	19640
25A	Feb	201	38468	39280
25B	Feb	113	19063	19640
26A	Feb	103	19047	19640
26B	Feb	111	19080	19640
26C	Feb	208	38900	39280
27A	Feb	196	38483	39280
27B	Feb	108	19230	19640
28A	Feb	107	18871	19640
28B	Feb	101	19234	19640
28C	Feb	105	18744	19640
29A	Feb	199	38606	39280
29B	Feb	106	19231	19640
30A	Feb	200	38476	39280
30B	Feb	107	19531	19640
31A	Apr	134	18882	19640
31B	Feb	115	19487	19640
31C	Feb	112	18832	19640
32A	Aug	275	38562	39280
32B	Jun	106	17675	19640
33A	Jun	124	19233	19640
33B	Oct	143	19022	19640
33C	Feb	204	38314	39280
34A	Feb	200	37681	39280
34B	Feb	116	19060	19640
35A	Feb	106	19121	19640
35B	Feb	104	18972	19640
35C	Jun	130	19177	19640
36A	Feb	202	38673	39280
36B	Feb	110	19228	19640
37A	Feb	202	38175	39280
37B	Feb	111	19217	19640
38A	Oct	133	18231	19640
38B	Oct	109	17803	19640
38C	Oct	85	12545	19640
39A	Feb	213	38466	39280
39B	Oct	8	1580	19640
40A	Oct	3	900	19640
40B	Oct	1	250	19640
40C	Feb	211	38101	39280
41A	Feb	199	37913	39280
41B	Feb	101	18685	19640
42A	Mar	106	18740	19640
42B	---	0	---	---
42C	Feb	114	18750	19640
43A	Feb	224	38223	39280
43B	Feb	103	18651	19640
44A	Feb	198	36953	39280
44B	Mar	104	18251	19640
45A	Aug	115	18482	19640
45B	Apr	116	18607	19640
45C	Mar	116	19235	19640
46A	Mar	192	37585	39280
46B	Mar	109	18215	19640
47A	Feb	128	17638	19640
47B	Jun	103	18115	19640
47C	Dec	261	36855	39280
48A	Apr	177	31650	39280
48B	Jun	100	18843	19640
49A	Mar	114	18072	19640
49B	Feb	110	18461	19640
49C	Feb	126	18513	19640
50A	Feb	260	35054	39280
50B	Jun	125	18560	19640
51A	Feb	88	12277	39280
51B	Feb	108	18186	19640
52A	Feb	103	18002	19640
52B	Aug	108	19069	19640
52C	Mar	112	18679	19640
53A	Apr	208	36837	39280
53B	Mar	64	9178	19640
54A	Apr	8	1160	19640
54B	Apr	19	2235	19640
54C	Apr	3	925	39280
55A	Apr	157	30108	39280
55B	Sep	119	17468	19640
56A	Aug	118	17838	19640
56B	Jun	103	18397	19640
56C	Dec	122	18255	19640
57A	Jun	178	35769	39280
57B	Dec	43	6529	19640
58A	Jun	188	36588	39280
58B	Jun	34	5295	19640
59A	Jun	71	13375	19640
59B	Aug	113	17374	19640
59C	Aug	106	17867	19640
60A	Jun	196	34350	39280
60B	Aug	93	14483	19640
61A	Aug	89	15840	19640
61B	---	55	9740	---
61C	Dec	132	21942	39280
62A	Aug	158	29533	39280
62B	Aug	93	15082	19640
63A	Sep	63	11683	19640
63B	Aug	86	16087	19640
63C	Dec	1	300	19640
64A	---	0	---	---
64B	Aug	10	2150	19640
65A	---	0	---	---
65B	Aug	70	11938	19640
66A	Sep	49	9060	19640
66B	Sep	39	5670	19640
66C	Sep	8	1810	19640
67B	Sep	1	250	19640
82A	Mar	226	33598	34975
82B	Feb	194	34250	34975
82C	Jun	244	33820	34975
87A	Feb	183	33852	34975
87B	Feb	187	34250	34975
87C	Feb	108	19361	19640
88A	Feb	198	34036	34975
88B	Feb	196	34422	34975
88C	Feb	124	19404	19640
89A	Feb	197	34099	34975
89B	Feb	175	34408	34975
89C	Apr	100	17118	19640

Month		#Cont	Points
Oct08		181	29849
Nov08		1362	215967
Dec08		867	147293
Jan09		1211	199114
Feb09		1258	190615
Mar09		1383	237144
Apr09		1328	232902
May09		938	164890
Jun09		1177	204704
Jul09		1804	289668
Aug09		1362	227660
Sep09		1188	199099
Oct09		1230	210144
Nov09		863	127480
Dec09		542	85459
Jan10		646	107887
Feb10		469	75148
Mar10		650	109520
Apr10		703	116301
May10		701	115602
Jun10		767	125725
Jul10		778	124071
Aug10		1035	167356

 

[dismedvc]

The bottom line is that this latest Declaration is good news for Members who have a waitlist. Good luck to all Members who are in waitlist limbo!!

Interesting comment about the wait list. It is either not being handled the way it should, or THEY LIED TO ME.

The first day allowed in January I booked a home resort (BLT) vacation for December. In February I called to drop the first day off that reservation. The CM at MS made an error and dropped the last day off the reservation instead. We recognized the mistake immediately, but it was to late to get the day I wanted back. (The person at the top of the waitlist had already been given the day that was cancelled in error, and MS could not reverse it by giving me back my day and returning that other person to the top of the waitlist.)

I was told since it was thier error, thay would put me on a "VIP" waitlist that would move me to the top of the wait list to get that day back. (Effectively, that would put me into the spot of the person whose waitlist came through when my day was cancelled in error, so everyone else on the waitlist stayed exactly where they would have been had the error not been made.)

Six months later that wait list has not come through. I called MS and told them, if I really was on the top of the wait list, then the only way my waitlist could not have come through was if no one had cancelled that day and NO NEW INVENTORY HAD BEEN DECLARED FOR THAT DAY.

Since new inventory has been declared (in large amounts) it is almost certain that one Lake view studio has been added, so I can only conclude THEY ARE LYING TO ME, OR THEY ARE PLAYING GAMES WITH THE NEWLY DECLARED INVENTORY. Either I was not actually put on the top of the waitlist, or they are using that newly declared inventory to help close sales, rahter than fill waitlist requests.

 

[wdrl]

Interesting comment about the wait list. It is either not being handled the way it should, or THEY LIED TO ME.

I suggest you call MS and speak to a supervisor about your situation. If anyone could give you the relief that you are seeking, it would be an MS supervisor. Good luck on getting it resolved.

 

[dismedvc]

I'm amazed by the timing and size of this Declaration. As the chart shows, BLT now has over 1,557,000 unsold-but-declared points. That is equivalent of 79 two-bedroom villas.

The bottom line is that this latest Declaration is good news for Members who have a waitlist. Good luck to all Members who are in waitlist limbo!!

I suggest you call MS and speak to a supervisor about your situation. If anyone could give you the relief that you are seeking, it would be an MS supervisor. Good luck on getting it resolved.

I talked with a supervisor today, and they could not tell me how many members are or were ahead of me on the VIP waitlist. (They said there could have been dozens of other members who were also on a VIP waitlist for the night I wanted.

They also could not confirm how many rooms have been added to member inventory since I went on the waitlist six months ago.

WDRL: do you know if all declared rooms are availalble for member booking? Obviously as points are sold, additional rooms need to be available to be booked using points. However, as you mentioned above, if there is a large number of declared but unsold points, since those points are actually still owned by Disney, could they use the room equivilants those points represent for Cash reservations and not to fill waitlist requests?

 

[wdrl]

WDRL: do you know if all declared rooms are availalble for member booking? Obviously as points are sold, additional rooms need to be available to be booked using points. However, as you mentioned above, if there is a large number of declared but unsold points, since those points are actually still owned by Disney, could they use the room equivilants those points represent for Cash reservations and not to fill waitlist requests?

Sorry to hear that MS couldn't resolve your issue.

I'll try to answer some of the questions you raise about room availability.

Here is what I know (or what I think I know from reading the Master Declaration of Condominium):

Members can only book the number of vacation homes that have been declared for the DVC Membership Plan (DVCMP) on any given Use Day. If 86.6% of BLT has been declared, then members can book up to but not exceeding 86.6% of BLT using points on any given day.

DVD owns all points until they all sold to DVC members. The members currently own about 65.1% of BLT, leaving DVD with the remaining 34.9%. DVD's portion includes those points not yet declared (about 764,075 points) and those points that are declared but not yet sold (about 1,239,000 points).

DVD's ownership stake in BLT is dwindling as it sells more points to the DVC members. Nevertheless, as the owner of about 2 million of BLT's points, it can use those points however it wishes. As members, we have no access to the 764,075 points that are undeclared. Although members have access to the 1,239,000 points have have been declared, there is no restriction in the Master Declaration that requires that only members access those points.

Here is what I suspect might be happening:

I don't know how DVD manages the points that have been declared but unsold. Since it owns these points, they have the right to rent out the points for cash reservations. At the same time, DVD can't rent out all of its points because it has to keep some in reserve to accommodate new sales. I suspect, but don't know, that DVD has algorithms that balance DVC usage, cash reservation demand, and DVC point sales to determine how many points it keeps in reserve at any time.

On June 4, 2010, when DVD made the last declaration for BLT, I was very surprised with the size of the Declaration. Not only was it very large, but BLT already had, if I recall correctly, over 800,000 points still unsold from previous declarations. I presumed this overdeclaration would result in more villas being available to members. Now, I wonder if some of this additional capacity was necessary because DVD is selling essentially two years worth of points on a large number of contracts.

Bottom line: There is much more about the point management process that I don't know than what I do know. But slowly, I think I am getting a better understanding of the process. I now know that when a new declaration is made I shouldn't presume it will improve the waitlist chances of members.

Hopefully, your waitlist will come through and it will all work out well for you. Keep us posted on any new developments. Good luck!!

 

[dizfan]

Sales numbers for contracts I've found on the Orange County Comptroller's web site for contracts through 9/30/2010.

23,194 total contracts
3,822,552 total points sold

Unit	UY	#Cont	Sold	Total
02A	Feb	232	38577	39280
02B	Mar	137	19238	19640
03A	Mar	276	38642	39280
03B	Apr	137	19243	19640
04A	Apr	266	38336	39280
04B	Jun	128	19283	19640
05A	---	0	---	---
05B	Aug	142	19449	19640
05C	Aug	131	19243	19640
06A	Sep	253	38445	39280
06B	Sep	134	19229	19640
07A	Oct	142	19222	19640
07B	Oct	153	19233	19640
07C	Dec	133	19091	19640
08A	Dec	279	38696	39280
08B	Feb	102	19436	19640
09A	Dec	123	19233	19640
09B	Feb	119	19233	19640
09C	Feb	115	19229	19640
10A	Mar	265	39659	39280
10B	Apr	149	19224	19640
11A	Feb	108	19222	19640
11B	Feb	99	19236	19640
11C	Feb	121	19501	19640
12A	Jun	328	38470	39280
12B	Feb	107	19243	39280
13A	Aug	170	19384	19640
13B	Feb	109	19244	19640
13C	Feb	99	19233	19640
14A	Feb	195	38484	39280
14B	Oct	138	19420	19640
15A	Feb	99	19222	19640
15B	Dec	197	19050	19640
15C	Feb	111	19241	19640
16A	Dec	266	38472	39280
16B	Feb	99	19145	19640
17A	Feb	104	19408	19640
17B	Feb	106	19232	19640
17C	Feb	101	19237	19640
18A	Dec	290	38246	39280
18B	Feb	102	19077	19640
19A	Feb	105	19240	19640
19B	Sep	123	19404	19640
19C	Jun	227	38547	39280
20A	Feb	243	38630	39280
20B	---	0	---	---
21A	Sep	140	18419	19640
21B	Sep	129	19432	19640
21C	Sep	143	18834	19640
22A	Feb	200	38121	39280
22B	Aug	159	19223	19640
23A	Feb	205	38630	39280
23B	Oct	130	18892	19640
24A	Feb	112	19545	19640
24B	Feb	100	18869	19640
24C	Feb	101	19240	19640
25A	Feb	201	38468	39280
25B	Feb	113	19063	19640
26A	Feb	103	19047	19640
26B	Feb	111	19080	19640
26C	Feb	208	38900	39280
27A	Feb	196	38483	39280
27B	Feb	108	19230	19640
28A	Feb	107	18871	19640
28B	Feb	101	19234	19640
28C	Feb	106	18819	19640
29A	Feb	199	38606	39280
29B	Feb	106	19231	19640
30A	Feb	200	38476	39280
30B	Feb	107	19531	19640
31A	Apr	134	18882	19640
31B	Feb	115	19487	19640
31C	Feb	112	18832	19640
32A	Aug	276	38622	39280
32B	Jun	106	17675	19640
33A	Jun	124	19233	19640
33B	Oct	143	19022	19640
33C	Feb	204	38314	39280
34A	Feb	202	37906	39280
34B	Feb	116	19060	19640
35A	Feb	106	19121	19640
35B	Feb	106	19232	19640
35C	Jun	130	19177	19640
36A	Feb	202	38673	39280
36B	Feb	110	19228	19640
37A	Feb	202	38175	39280
37B	Feb	111	19217	19640
38A	Oct	133	18231	19640
38B	Oct	111	18373	19640
38C	Oct	111	16135	19640
39A	Feb	213	38466	39280
39B	Oct	38	6374	19640
40A	Oct	11	2055	19640
40B	Oct	1	250	19640
40C	Feb	211	38101	39280
41A	Feb	200	38163	39280
41B	Feb	102	18885	19640
42A	Mar	106	18740	19640
42B	---	0	---	---
42C	Feb	114	18750	19640
43A	Feb	225	38323	39280
43B	Feb	104	18706	19640
44A	Feb	201	37763	39280
44B	Mar	104	18251	19640
45A	Aug	115	18482	19640
45B	Apr	117	18657	19640
45C	Mar	116	19235	19640
46A	Mar	193	37835	39280
46B	Mar	109	18215	19640
47A	Feb	131	17998	19640
47B	Jun	107	18835	19640
47C	Dec	264	37336	39280
48A	Apr	177	31650	39280
48B	Jun	103	19083	19640
49A	Mar	120	18777	19640
49B	Feb	110	18461	19640
49C	Feb	126	18513	19640
50A	Feb	272	36374	39280
50B	Jun	125	18560	19640
51A	Feb	174	23772	39280
51B	Feb	109	18406	19640
52A	Feb	103	18002	19640
52B	Aug	108	19069	19640
52C	Mar	112	18679	19640
53A	Apr	212	37162	39280
53B	Mar	69	9968	19640
54A	Apr	8	1160	19640
54B	Apr	23	2815	19640
54C	Apr	3	925	39280
55A	Apr	158	30308	39280
55B	Sep	125	18268	19640
56A	Aug	119	17963	19640
56B	Jun	106	18677	19640
56C	Dec	125	18813	19640
57A	Jun	182	36649	39280
57B	Dec	97	14194	19640
58A	Jun	190	36913	39280
58B	Jun	43	6075	19640
59A	Jun	73	13675	19640
59B	Aug	116	17734	19640
59C	Aug	107	18077	19640
60A	Jun	198	34670	39280
60B	Aug	98	15283	19640
61A	Aug	93	16720	19640
61B	---	74	13242	---
61C	Dec	185	30682	39280
62A	Aug	179	32983	39280
62B	Aug	107	16997	19640
63A	Sep	89	15878	19640
63B	Aug	92	17027	19640
63C	Dec	18	3425	19640
64A	---	0	---	---
64B	Aug	12	2510	19640
65A	---	0	---	39280
65B	Aug	95	15713	19640
66A	Sep	73	13235	19640
66B	Sep	95	14151	19640
66C	Sep	66	12841	19640
67A	---	0	---	39280
67B	Sep	54	9742	19640
68A	---	0	---	19640
68B	---	0	---	19640
68C	Sep	55	10325	39280
69A	---	0	---	39280
69B	---	0	---	19640
70A	---	0	---	19640
70B	---	0	---	19640
70C	---	0	---	19640
71A	---	0	---	39280
71B	---	0	---	19640
72A	---	0	---	39280
72B	---	0	---	19640
73A	---	0	---	19640
73B	---	0	---	19640
73C	---	0	---	19640
74A	---	0	---	39280
74B	---	0	---	19640
75A	---	0	---	19640
75B	---	0	---	19640
75C	---	0	---	39280
76A	---	0	---	39280
76B	---	0	---	19640
82A	Mar	226	33598	34975
82B	Feb	194	34250	34975
82C	Jun	244	33820	34975
87A	Feb	183	33852	34975
87B	Feb	187	34250	34975
87C	Feb	108	19361	19640
88A	Feb	198	34036	34975
88B	Feb	196	34422	34975
88C	Feb	124	19404	19640
89A	Feb	197	34099	34975
89B	Feb	175	34408	34975
89C	Apr	100	17118	19640

Month		#Cont	Points
Oct08		181	29849
Nov08		1362	215967
Dec08		867	147293
Jan09		1211	199114
Feb09		1258	190615
Mar09		1383	237144
Apr09		1328	232902
May09		938	164890
Jun09		1177	204704
Jul09		1804	289668
Aug09		1362	227660
Sep09		1188	199099
Oct09		1230	210144
Nov09		863	127480
Dec09		542	85459
Jan10		646	107887
Feb10		469	75148
Mar10		650	109520
Apr10		703	116301
May10		701	115602
Jun10		767	125725
Jul10		778	124071
Aug10		1035	167356
Sep10		750	118854

 

[wdrl]

The following chart shows sales at BLT through September 30, 2010:

About two-thirds of BLT's total points have been sold. Since Disney cannot sell more than 98% of BLT's total points, there appears to be about 1,796,307 points remaining before BLT is sold out to the public. At the current rate of sales, BLT should reach that point in about 10-12 months.

Due in part to the large declaration of points made in June 2010, I do not anticipate another declaration of Units for the DVC membership until after the first of the year. Currently, Disney has over 1.14 million BLT points that have been declared but are unsold.