VGF worth the Money ? Why I think YES!!!

[VGF Ben]

And the biggest part that you still aren't getting is: If you and I both buy VGF at the exact same price, it may end up being well worth the money for you, but it could end up being a horrible waste of money for me. Not everyone has the same exact situation. This is why blanket statements don't work.

Who is making a blanket statement. I agree....if you have 3 weeks you can travel on, that sure limits you. Your only choice is to buy a week....which is an option. Then it works very well for you....

 

[chukdotcom]

Who is making a blanket statement. I agree....if you have 3 weeks you can travel on, that sure limits you. Your only choice is to buy a week....which is an option. Then it works very well for you....

The person asked me if I thought the "majority" of people (>50%) got turned away when trying to book popular weeks. My 52 week example should make it clear that they do. That is all.

 

[Dean]

IMO.. I view the VGF like the VGC..
Small and hard to get into unless you own..

But yet there are successes of non owners getting in to VGC and VGC villas finding their way into RCI.

Even better....VGF is SMALLER than VGC...and the flagship of WDW...unquestionably....

VGC is 50 villas IIRC with 48 2 BR L/O and 2 GV.

You could say the same thing for all dvc resorts. If they didn't limit the amount of points they sold they would run into this problem all over the place and no one would buy. I know there is no guarantee but if most people are being turned away at the busiest times I don't think they would be selling many of these contracts at any resort.

Actually this happens now at times, there are plenty of examples of resorts/options/times when one needs to be during the home resorts period and many exactly 11 months out. We see an occasional thread where someone bought and either was promised or assumed availability and are upset.

This is a funny thread.
I think if the purchase makes sense in the buyers head, then that is all that matters. Looking for justification will always spark up a debate like this as everyone views value in different ways. In a discussion like this, who is to say that anyone else is right or wrong?

I can't speak for others but my goal is to speak to the principle not the person. However in general terms it is incorrect to say that just because one made a decision, no matter how much they researched, that it's automatically a good decision. Do they have the right to make the decision, yes but whether it's a good one depends on a lot of variables as well as what happens over time with the system, their life, etc.

 

[Dean]

Chuck,

If the benefits of buying direct mean anything to you, then it's really hard to quantify the value of those perks (it's really up to the individual).

It's actually easy to quantify the dollar value of the non guaranteed perks. The up front incentives are tied to a cost and the exchange options don't have any OR actually cost the member more over time, esp if they bought more points to use for those options than they would have just for VGF.

Not really. When VGF comes on resale, it will likely be $135+. And I realize you aren't buying into a specific resort. But you ARE buying a booking advantage at a specific resort. Which is not much different in practice.

I've already seen several listed at $135 though they were somewhat stripped contracts. I think you'll see them down around $120 pp in about a year. Neither are low enough to make it reasonable to wait simply to save money but buying at VGF, IMO. Personally I think the fixed week is the best component and a far better option than getting smaller contracts.

What you fail to mention is that those Value accommodations are only available to AKL at almost ALL times....of course, far be it from you to let facts interfere with a good flow, right?

I already did all the analysis on points comparisons...you can go back to my earlier post....the differences are hardly as dramatic as you like to make them....they are negligible for a family whose intention it is to stay at the Grand....

There have been reports of value room successes but I'd agree, and have said, that value isn't likely to be available other than at 11 months out. However, I've also stated that it's likely cheaper to buy SSR and reserve AKV standard than buying AKV for value plus you come out ahead every time you book something else none AKV as well.

I agree with you that if you have VGF points, you are foolish to use them to book anywhere else on WDW property other than VGF or Poly....

As to vacation planning, I don't know many people that can't adjust a vacation 11 months in advance. If you find you're completely shut out at 11 months, you move your plans. If you just need a day or two, there are plenty of ways around that...move to a 1br for those two days or change your view....there's almost always a way. Otherwise, you alter your plans....

Actually I think there are quite a few members that are pretty locked in no matter how far out they plan otherwise. There are certain to be quite a few buyers at VGF that end up using their points elsewhere much of the time. There has been for every option including VGC, BCV, BLT. It might be less of VGF than for say SSR but it will not be an insignificant number. You'll have the groups that buy retail on site when they take tour but don't have info, you'll have the group that buy out of emotion (we've seen quite a few already it appears) and there'll be the group that though they wanted it but ended up that it wasn't what they thought it'd be.

Ok I get it. As a VGF owner I stand to lose more then non VGF owners would lose. The caveat here is this only applies if I can't get into my home resort. Which brings me to the meat of the question. Can I expect not to get in? My question was specific "at 11 months". I mean to the day not in your qualifier of months 7-11. Do you still think more then half get turned away on that day? Anyone who waits past that day has a lot less to complain about since they waited and were beat out by other owners. It seems to me that if this number truly is over 50% disney would have a heck of a time trying to sell to people who are locked into vacationing at the busy times and can use their investment less then half the time.

Exactly, you have more to lose at every turn. About the best you can do is break even compared to your analysis. If logic and availability were an active component of DVC retail sales, there wouldn't be very much. DVC is still an emotional purchase for most. Even when we see people that spend time investigating and intellectually know the available info, we still often see them make emotional purchases. From what I've seen this has been true more for VGF than for most. Why is VGF not completely sold out at this point?

And the biggest part that you still aren't getting is: If you and I both buy VGF at the exact same price, it may end up being well worth the money for you, but it could end up being a horrible waste of money for me. Not everyone has the same exact situation. This is why blanket statements don't work.

Exactly. It's a reasonable choice for one who can truly afford it and will use it almost exclusively at VGF, and values staying there enough to pay the extra, this is one of the reasons I feel that the fixed week options such a benefit.

 

[VGF Ben]

I've already seen several listed at $135 though they were somewhat stripped contracts. I think you'll see them down around $120 pp in about a year. Neither are low enough to make it reasonable to wait simply to save money but buying at VGF, IMO. Personally I think the fixed week is the best component and a far better option than getting smaller contracts.

You're dreaming, Dean if you think the resale price is down at 120 in a year....

Your funny...out of one side of your mouth, you say that VGF won't be that hard to get at 7 months.....then out of the other, you say you have to get the 1 week guaranteed option in order to get value...which, of course, is hogwash....unless you only have one time of the year when you plan on going to Disney....Don't know many folks that are that limited in their lives that they can't find more than one time a year ahead, when they could conceivably vacation....

Which is it Dean?

 

[Dean]

You're dreaming, Dean if you think the resale price is down at 120 in a year....

Your funny...out of one side of your mouth, you say that VGF won't be that hard to get at 7 months.....then out of the other, you say you have to get the 1 week guaranteed option in order to get value...which, of course, is hogwash....unless you only have one time of the year when you plan on going to Disney....Don't know many folks that are that limited in their lives that they can't find more than one time a year ahead, when they could conceivably vacation....

Which is it Dean?

Once again you misquote/misrepresent. ALL I've said is that there will be successes, I've consistently said it will be difficult, just not completely impossible. To reference a post of yours earlier, all that has to happen to prove MY point is that a few people have to post they got in at 7 months or less.

Reminds me of the SSR discussions we had a few years ago where a certain subset couldn't see the difference between owning there and the affect on the system itself.

 

[VGF Ben]

To reference a post of yours earlier, all that has to happen to prove MY point is that a few people have to post they got in at 7 months or less.

Ummmmm....Deano....I never said that.

My point all along is that booking at 7 months would be too difficult and that the only way to reliably book there for a vacation would be to own there. I never said it would be impossible. My challenge to you was to plan your vacation there regularly....or pretend to and see what your success ratio was....I put forth that you'd have little success.

What's funny is...if you're now admitting it would be very difficult to book there, what have we been talking about for 8 pages? That was the whole point!

 

[Thisdman]

Actually I think there are quite a few members that are pretty locked in no matter how far out they plan otherwise. There are certain to be quite a few buyers at VGF that end up using their points elsewhere much of the time. There has been for every option including VGC, BCV, BLT. It might be less of VGF than for say SSR but it will not be an insignificant number. You'll have the groups that buy retail on site when they take tour but don't have info, you'll have the group that buy out of emotion (we've seen quite a few already it appears) and there'll be the group that though they wanted it but ended up that it wasn't what they thought it'd be.

You keep using words like "quite a few" and "insignificant number" that have a different meaning to different people. Can you put a percentage in its place so we can make a better judgement on your statements?

Exactly, you have more to lose at every turn. About the best you can do is break even compared to your analysis. If logic and availability were an active component of DVC retail sales, there wouldn't be very much. DVC is still an emotional purchase for most. Even when we see people that spend time investigating and intellectually know the available info, we still often see them make emotional purchases. From what I've seen this has been true more for VGF than for most. Why is VGF not completely sold out at this point?

You don't seem to have a lot of confidence in the intelligence and decision making of the people buying DVC and especially VGF. I think I'm offended and I would appreciate it if you would tell me if I am or not since I'm one of the stupid people that bought in.

Exactly. It's a reasonable choice for one who can truly afford it and will use it almost exclusively at VGF, and values staying there enough to pay the extra, this is one of the reasons I feel that the fixed week options such a benefit.[/QUOTE]

The fact is you don't know what is going to happen and you are guessing. You are stating with certainty things that are only conjecture. I disagree with much of what you're saying but I hope you keep the comments coming so people can get the differing opinions.

 

[Dean]

Ummmmm....Deano....I never said that.

My point all along is that booking at 7 months would be too difficult and that the only way to reliably book there for a vacation would be to own there. I never said it would be impossible. My challenge to you was to plan your vacation there regularly....or pretend to and see what your success ratio was....I put forth that you'd have little success.

What's funny is...if you're now admitting it would be very difficult to book there, what have we been talking about for 8 pages? That was the whole point!

I've said that all along. Here's a quote from my first post on this thread and I've never wavered from that opinion or posted otherwise, if anything I said suggested otherwise it was unintentional. Just go back and review my posts from the beginning.

I question the never being able to stay in a studio at 7 months but I'd agree it won't be routinely available and there are times of year when it's going to be nearly impossible. Current trends won't be representative however you've got to wait for sell out and the members have a couple of trips under their belt before you can get an accurate gauge.

Here's your post on the subject of proving availability.

I'll say this....as an experiment, why not prove your point, take 150 of your points and yearly plan a vacation to a VGF studio...if not in reality, do it virtually....and not always during the middle of september of January.....

 

[VGF Ben]

I've said that all along. Here's a quote from my first post on this thread and I've never wavered from that opinion or posted otherwise, if anything I said suggested otherwise it was unintentional. Just go back and review my posts from the beginning.



Here's your post on the subject of proving availability.

That post you quote of mine is exactly the one I referenced above....thanks for finding it...lol....doesn't prove your point....

I went back and reviewed your posts....Yes, you said it might be difficult, but you made a point of saying NOT NEARLY AS DIFFICULT AS YOU THINK....

That does imply that you think it will be easier than we think....does it not?

To say that it won't be "routinely available" is still a far cry from very difficult....which is still what I think it will be. I still think you should virtually use 150 non VGF points yearly to plan vacations...and not vacations that can be infinitely moved around, but vacations that might mirror your own. Let us know how much success you have. My contention is you wouldn't have much at all....do you disagree?

 

[chukdotcom]

You don't seem to have a lot of confidence in the intelligence and decision making of the people buying DVC and especially VGF. I think I'm offended and I would appreciate it if you would tell me if I am or not since I'm one of the stupid people that bought in.

A very large portion of people that buy timeshares do so without doing their due diligence. That is not intelligent. A large portion of the people that buy DVC direct are making a bad financial decision. Notice I did not say everyone. The reason why VGF is being singled out now is because it is the one that is currently pushed by DVC. Rewind to a couple of years ago and substitute AKV in this conversation.

If you ask my opinion, if you bought VGF direct and plan on using all of your points there for the next 50 years, then you made a good investment.

 

[Dean]

That post you quote of mine is exactly the one I referenced above....thanks for finding it...lol....doesn't prove your point....

I went back and reviewed your posts....Yes, you said it might be difficult, but you made a point of saying NOT NEARLY AS DIFFICULT AS YOU THINK....

That does imply that you think it will be easier than we think....does it not?

To say that it won't be "routinely available" is still a far cry from very difficult....which is still what I think it will be. I still think you should virtually use 150 non VGF points yearly to plan vacations...and not vacations that can be infinitely moved around, but vacations that might mirror your own. Let us know how much success you have. My contention is you wouldn't have much at all....do you disagree?

You and 1 other stated repeated it would never then later backtracked only a little bit. If we're to the point of saying it'd be difficult but with occasional successes, you're arrived at my point all along. The not nearly as difficult was in direct relationship to the never available postulate and could not be read as routinely available taken in context. To be clear my feeling is the successes will be mostly off season and short notice (believe I said that early on also) but there will be other times when successes happen. Every time a member at VGF trades out in some way, there will be availability for someone either on cash or for points and likely for cash, with a member discount at times. This should be a relatively small number because hopefully most who buy there are smart enough to realize they're losing money every time they trade in any way whether it be DCL, RCI, ABD or just internally to other DVC resorts but not everyone will and new buyers will want to try other resorts also.

 

[VGF Ben]

A large portion of the people that buy DVC direct are making a bad financial decision.

That is just a gratuitously arrogant statement with no factual basis....most of the direct purchasers at Beach Club can resell for more than they bought for....you have no idea what price these DVC's will sit at in the future. You have no knowledge of future limits on resale perks and privileges vs. direct. So many factors....

If you add up all of the bankruptcies and sold DVC's, it is a VERY VERY small percentage of all DVC ownership stakes. In fact, all of resale is probably a minority percentage of DVC.

This is what gets me about this board the most. You are so smug and insulting sometimes...and you have very little knowledge to make those pronouncements....it's reckless....

 

[VGF Ben]

You and 1 other stated repeated it would never then later backtracked only a little bit. If we're to the point of saying it'd be difficult but with occasional successes, you're arrived at my point all along. The not nearly as difficult was in direct relationship to the never available postulate and could not be read as routinely available taken in context. To be clear my feeling is the successes will be mostly off season and short notice (believe I said that early on also) but there will be other times when successes happen. Every time a member at VGF trades out in some way, there will be availability for someone either on cash or for points and likely for cash, with a member discount at times. This should be a relatively small number because hopefully most who buy there are smart enough to realize they're losing money every time they trade in any way whether it be DCL, RCI, ABD or just internally to other DVC resorts but not everyone will and new buyers will want to try other resorts also.

Quote ME where I said never and meant it as never....I've been quoted multiple times saying the opposite, that you can find a few days here and there now....but that I thought, once it was 90+% sold, it would probably be never....or close to it....

And when you talk about trading out and trading in, etc....keep in mind that I've only been talking about studios in my discussions....that changes your zero sum game conclusions....

 

[Thisdman]

A very large portion of people that buy timeshares do so without doing their due diligence. That is not intelligent. A large portion of the people that buy DVC direct are making a bad financial decision. Notice I did not say everyone. The reason why VGF is being singled out now is because it is the one that is currently pushed by DVC. Rewind to a couple of years ago and substitute AKV in this conversation.

If you ask my opinion, if you bought VGF direct and plan on using all of your points there for the next 50 years, then you made a good investment.

Again people, please quantify. What exactly do you mean by "a very large portion"? I agree that there are people out there that buy for all kinds of lousy reasons but I also think that MOST consider all options before making such decisions.

 

[chukdotcom]

That is just a gratuitously arrogant statement with no factual basis....most of the direct purchasers at Beach Club can resell for more than they bought for....you have no idea what price these DVC's will sit at in the future. You have no knowledge of future limits on resale perks and privileges vs. direct. So many factors....

If you add up all of the bankruptcies and sold DVC's, it is a VERY VERY small percentage of all DVC ownership stakes. In fact, all of resale is probably a minority percentage of DVC.

This is what gets me about this board the most. You are so smug and insulting sometimes...and you have very little knowledge to make those pronouncements....it's reckless....

No, it's not. The truth is, you are the one acting smug with very little knowledge or experience in this. All I can say is, you will learn. Hopefully it won't be the hard way. Best of luck with your VGF purchase.

 

[VGF Ben]

Again people, please quantify. What exactly do you mean by "a very large portion"? I agree that there are people out there that buy for all kinds of lousy reasons but I also think that MOST consider all options before making such decisions.

I agree with you....it is the utmost in arrogance to state that MOST buyers are idiots. If people have the money to purchase at VGF and stay there, they are likely not an idiot....and do at least SOME research before purchasing.

And you all act as though they would have NO IDEA that VGF was at the top of the resort food chain....obliviously hoping from place to place. Dude, all they would need to do would be to STAY THERE once and they'd see it for themselves. And most all owners stay there within a year of purchasing....

 

[VGF Ben]

No, it's not. The truth is, you are the one acting smug with very little knowledge or experience in this. All I can say is, you will learn. Hopefully it won't be the hard way. Best of luck with your VGF purchase.

Right, Chuck....well, thank you for deigning to grace us with your elusive magical "knowledge".....we'll see how it shakes out. Talk to me in 4 years.....

This isn't rocket science, my friend.... it's simple supply and demand. If you understand those concepts, it's not too hard to figure out the rest. The history of DVC pricing is a matter of public record. There's no secret keys to the knowledge....it's all out there for us to see....

Beach Club right now is climbing in price, more each week....why? Because people can't stay there when they want....

BLT is still selling resale for at or near where it was originally offered (mid 90's with incentives)...and that is a much more available DVC property.....

 

[chukdotcom]

Again people, please quantify. What exactly do you mean by "a very large portion"? I agree that there are people out there that buy for all kinds of lousy reasons but I also think that MOST consider all options before making such decisions.

Most? Most people can't even find their way to this board. And many of those who do come on saying "I just bought DVC on a cruise I was on. I was told all resorts are sold out and only VGF is available".

There is a reason why timeshares have the stigma that they do.

And by "very large portion", I mean "almost everyone". You can't take the people here as a representative sample. They are a tiny fraction of DVC buyers. For the people that do make it here (and other places likes this), I DO think many of them do their due diligence.

 

[chukdotcom]

Right, Chuck....well, thank you for deigning to grace us with your elusive magical "knowledge".....we'll see how it shakes out. Talk to me in 4 years.....

You are welcome.