*** Updated to add spring break Data*** New Data, FP+ impacting wait times, discuss

[AmyB2006]

Oooooooohhhhhh..... we might just have a winner!

I'll get back with you after I run it past the marketing heads.

It certainly garners big points with me for accuracy.

Winner Winner Chicken Dinner!

I like that and I'm even a "half" fan of FP+. LOL

 

[clsteve]

Just for fun, let's analyze further:

Let's take 200 people. In 2013, the article asserts the Dinosaur wait was an average of 15 min. Great!

Now in 2014, the standby wait is 25 min but the FP wait is (?) 8 min.

"Just for fun", let's stick to real data- or at least data collected by someone who actually does it (Josh).

"FP wait is(?) 8 min": glad you put the question mark there since it is straight out of thin air

So now 150 ppl ride it via FP, getting on in 8 min.
50 ppl ride it via Standby, waiting 25 min.

Net average wait time? 12 minutes. (8*150+50*25)/200


The data is only as good as the analysis behind it...

I agree with the bolded- it would be nice if you followed your own advice. The only number in your above equation that is close to real is the 25 minutes from Josh.

I'll leave the "equation" alone....

 

[MrInfinity]

Take Star Tours for example. We really like to ride this one more than once which makes sense with all of the different possible scenarios. I can't imagine that a huge number of people would select it for FP+. I would of course but would many others?

I would guess of the rides in the 2nd bracket, ST is the most chosen. What else is there? ToT is popular, but many fewer ppl like ToT especially for multiple rides on one trip. Anyways I'd guess ST, followed closely by ToT. The other rides probly don't get much love at all unless a family doesn't like ToT. My wife doesn't... I don't know what to pick for her and DD5 when we do ToT -Dis Jr? Don't see needing a FP to that. Muppetvision will still be a walk-on. Maybe GMR? Eh, not a great use of time on a SWW.

 

[redrosesix]

I think we actually agree more than you think. I agree the SB line is longer. No contest there! But you are waiting longer in SB, because someone else is getting to go ahead of you and is waiting equally less. Right? They're not just "stopping the line and making you wait".

I've said it many times, that FP+ gets more ppl on a few rides quickly, and anyone that wants to ride many times is going to have to wait for those that want to ride once.

That does not mean wait times are longer "on average". They're only longer "for some". Every extra minute you spend in line, is one minute someone else didn't. So the average didn't go up! There's just ppl being prioritized ahead of you.

This might be true if the FP return lines worked the same as they did with FP-...but they don't. The system makes the wait times longer in both lines, so every extra minute for me is not one less for somebody else. But it's even worse than that. Your argument would assume that all guests only did 6 rides per day, 1 on SB and 1 on FP. I don't think this is the case, even on average.

and seriously, if disney put out a PR campaign that told people they could only ride 6 rides per day... they would be done. I don't think that is what they intended with the new system and I don't think they could make people pay for tickets if that was the case. Yes, some families may be content to ride only 6 (or even 3) rides per day, but that wouldn't be enough to keep the parks open.

 

[NavyDad]

The data is showing that MY overall time in line is increasing ...

But here is the thing, this isn't just for the 1% like you said earlier.

Even our first trip to WDW a few years ago, we figured out how to FP things, all on our own, without the DisBoards. And we FP'd our brains out. Lots of people were able to smartly navigate the parks, and avoid SB lines by pulling FPs. Not just the 1% Disboarders.

What I also find interesting, is that Josh's analysis only includes the first, and short, busy period of the year.

Another analysis we saw earlier this year, up until the week before presidents day week, saw no significant increases in wait times ... Now we are seeing significant increases. What is this picture going to look like by the end of summer ? Or after spring break weeks ?

Yes - for people who "FP'd their brains out" they are probably going to spend more time in line. Myself and most DIS'rs will probably fall into that catagory.

I have seen Josh and the people at Touring Plans state many times that the percentage of people who do extensive research and know how to fully navigate the FP system before they arrive is very low.

Josh states in the article that many of these rides are seeing increased use of FP which is a virtual queing system. With more people using FP the overall system is more efficient for the overall pool of guests. That is a net positive even if a small percentage of people like you and I will be negatively impacted.

 

[JimmyV]

As a general matter, we are all guilty of over-thinking this. (Myself included). Consider the following. A family who, in June, 2013, went to Epcot, arrived at 9:30 and did the following:

• Walked to Soarin' and pulled a FP with a return time of 11:30.
• Rode Living With The Land.
• Rode Nemo and explored Living Seas.
• They rode Journey Into Imagination.
• Their new FP window opened up, so they got one for Test Track with a return time of 4:00.
• They rode Soarin' with their FP then had lunch at Sunshine Seasons.
• They rode Ellen's Energy Adventure.
• They spent some time at Innoventions.
• Their new FP window opened up so they got one for Mission Space with a return time of 5:30.
• They walked around World Showcase.
• They returned to Future World to use their FPs for Test Track and Mission Space.
• They rode Spaceship Earth.

Now, this same family arrives at 9:30 and has FPs reserved for Soarin' at 11:30, Mission Space at 1:00 and Spaceship Earth at 2:00. There is no way that this family will be able to repeat their typical day at Epcot without spending more net time in lines. And I don't think that this hypothetical family is unusual, or were 1% super users. So who is FP+ helping?

 

[amg35]

As a general matter, we are all guilty of over-thinking this. (Myself included). Consider the following. A family who, in June, 2013, went to Epcot, arrived at 9:30 and did the following:

• Walked to Soarin' and pulled a FP with a return time of 11:30.
• Rode Living With The Land.
• Rode Nemo and explored Living Seas.
• They rode Journey Into Imagination.
• Their new FP window opened up, so they got one for Test Track with a return time of 4:00.
• They rode Soarin' with their FP then had lunch at Sunshine Seasons.
• They rode Ellen's Energy Adventure.
• They spent some time at Innoventions.
• Their new FP window opened up so they got one for Mission Space with a return time of 5:30.
• They walked around World Showcase.
• They returned to Future World to use their FPs for Test Track and Mission Space.
• They rode Spaceship Earth.

Now, this same family arrives at 9:30 and has FPs reserved for Soarin' at 11:30, Mission Space at 1:00 and Spaceship Earth at 2:00. There is no way that this family will be able to repeat their typical day at Epcot without spending more net time in lines. And I don't think that this hypothetical family is unusual, or were 1% super users. So who is FP+ helping?

What if they got there at opening and road Test Track first? (and then had scheduled fast pass for Soarin and other picks)

They would still be able to get on the lower tier rides w/out fast pass? (living with land, nemo, etc)

I guess people have to play around with when they will schedule their 3 rides in order to make the most use of the park?

I don't know....

 

[MrInfinity]

In effect this is just shifting the time from one group to another if your logic is right. If so many people get Dinosaur FP+ then of course they would swamp the standby crowd. I don't see that as a good thing.

Yes, I'd say that's fairly accurate. Shifting the time. You (and I) used to ride a lot because we were in the minority that knew FP- and used it well. Now, we will have to wait for the masses... who used to ride less and used to be in Standby while you and I were double dipping and going ahead of them.... to at least ride some. So what if they didn't "used to". Now they can, and for us to ride a lot, we have to wait for them to get in their 3.

It's a shift from us to them. That's not good for you or anyone who used to have FP- mastered... but the average time in line is still unchanged. It's just different ppl doing the waiting.

 

[clsteve]

As a general matter, we are all guilty of over-thinking this. (Myself included). Consider the following. A family who, in June, 2013, went to Epcot, arrived at 9:30 and did the following:

• Walked to Soarin' and pulled a FP with a return time of 11:30.
• Rode Living With The Land.
• Rode Nemo and explored Living Seas.
• They rode Journey Into Imagination.
• Their new FP window opened up, so they got one for Test Track with a return time of 4:00.
• They rode Soarin' with their FP then had lunch at Sunshine Seasons.
• They rode Ellen's Energy Adventure.
• They spent some time at Innoventions.
• Their new FP window opened up so they got one for Mission Space with a return time of 5:30.
• They walked around World Showcase.
• They returned to Future World to use their FPs for Test Track and Mission Space.
• They rode Spaceship Earth.

Now, this same family arrives at 9:30 and has FPs reserved for Soarin' at 11:30, Mission Space at 1:00 and Spaceship Earth at 2:00. There is no way that this family will be able to repeat their typical day at Epcot without spending more net time in lines. And I don't think that this hypothetical family is unusual, or were 1% super users. So who is FP+ helping?

Yep, the main takeaway from Josh's data is that there's a chance touring might change big-time with the secondaries having longer waits - even if you didn't really use FP-, but used RD to knock out the headliners. We did that and spent the busier part of the day hitting POTC, HM, Star Tours, etc., pulling the random FP for re-rides when we were in that part of the Park and they were available.

Now, with FP+ times starting at RD, guests reserving 3, first-timers and casuals actually honoring their reserved FP's for secondaries, SB going slower, and the published wait times not matching what's really happening (based on Dis feedback), it's gonna take going through a good part of the upcoming busy season to begin to figure it out.

 

[amg35]

Yep, the main takeaway from Josh's data is that there's a chance touring might change big-time with the secondaries having longer waits - even if you didn't really use FP-, but used RD to knock out the headliners. We did that and spent the busier part of the day hitting POTC, HM, Star Tours, etc., pulling the random FP for re-rides when we were in that part of the Park and they were available.

Now, with FP+ times starting at RD, guests reserving 3, first-timers and casuals actually honoring their reserved FP's for secondaries, SB going slower, and the published wait times not matching what's really happening (based on Dis feedback), it's gonna take going through a good part of the upcoming busy season to begin to figure it out.

Great, now you guys get to work on that and then let me know by August how I should schedule my October fast passes.

 

[Shaden]

I think another IMPORTANT part to this equation might be the number of FPs being given out ????

We, or rather I, have NO data on this. But have seen several reports of the fact that they have increased the number of FPs being distributed in order to deal with the increased usage. Also possibly why they extended FP to rides that previously did not need to be FP'd.

I wonder what this looks like if we just looked at someone who used to ride, perhaps repeatedly, tier 2 rides.

 

[MrInfinity]

As a general matter, we are all guilty of over-thinking this. (Myself included). Consider the following. A family who, in June, 2013, went to Epcot, arrived at 9:30 and did the following:

• Walked to Soarin' and pulled a FP with a return time of 11:30.
• Rode Living With The Land.
• Rode Nemo and explored Living Seas.
• They rode Journey Into Imagination.
• Their new FP window opened up, so they got one for Test Track with a return time of 4:00.
• They rode Soarin' with their FP then had lunch at Sunshine Seasons.
• They rode Ellen's Energy Adventure.
• They spent some time at Innoventions.
• Their new FP window opened up so they got one for Mission Space with a return time of 5:30.
• They walked around World Showcase.
• They returned to Future World to use their FPs for Test Track and Mission Space.
• They rode Spaceship Earth.

Now, this same family arrives at 9:30 and has FPs reserved for Soarin' at 11:30, Mission Space at 1:00 and Spaceship Earth at 2:00. There is no way that this family will be able to repeat their typical day at Epcot without spending more net time in lines. And I don't think that this hypothetical family is unusual, or were 1% super users. So who is FP+ helping?

So you have...
Nemo, Figment, and LWTL between 9 and 11:30 *great, easy*
A FP for soarin around 11:30 *fine*
Lunch at 12, followed by...
Ellen, Innoventions, Test Track and Mission Space by 5:30...
and a Late Test Track?

That's not all that much. I can easily make a schedule to fit in all that.

My days have me at Epcot for 1.5 days with FP+. I see everything I want, ride Nemo, Turtle, Figment (twice) Soarin (twice) LWTL, TT (twice) MS (once) SE (once) Maelstrom (twice) all with FP+, spending only really the morning hours in FW (you put till 5:30 there which we'd never do) and the afternoons in the WS. Perhaps I should share my touring plan and you can rip it apart...

 

[JanaDee]

As a general matter, we are all guilty of over-thinking this. (Myself included). Consider the following. A family who, in June, 2013, went to Epcot, arrived at 9:30 and did the following:

• Walked to Soarin' and pulled a FP with a return time of 11:30.
• Rode Living With The Land.
• Rode Nemo and explored Living Seas.
• They rode Journey Into Imagination.
• Their new FP window opened up, so they got one for Test Track with a return time of 4:00.
• They rode Soarin' with their FP then had lunch at Sunshine Seasons.
• They rode Ellen's Energy Adventure.
• They spent some time at Innoventions.
• Their new FP window opened up so they got one for Mission Space with a return time of 5:30.
• They walked around World Showcase.
• They returned to Future World to use their FPs for Test Track and Mission Space.
• They rode Spaceship Earth.

Now, this same family arrives at 9:30 and has FPs reserved for Soarin' at 11:30, Mission Space at 1:00 and Spaceship Earth at 2:00. There is no way that this family will be able to repeat their typical day at Epcot without spending more net time in lines. And I don't think that this hypothetical family is unusual, or were 1% super users. So who is FP+ helping?

People who want to sleep until noon and people that don't want to ride headliners.

 

[cheesemouse]

This will not likely affect our usual touring plans. We are a RD family and will continue to arrive before RD and leave by 1pm each day and return in the evening for entertainment. We usually find most things to be walk on to 10 minutes for us in the morning if we tour wisely. Should this not be the case next week when we go, then I'll know why.

 

[redrosesix]

The data is showing that MY overall time in line is increasing ...

But here is the thing, this isn't just for the 1% like you said earlier.

Even our first trip to WDW a few years ago, we figured out how to FP things, all on our own, without the DisBoards. And we FP'd our brains out. Lots of people were able to smartly navigate the parks, and avoid SB lines by pulling FPs. Not just the 1% Disboarders.

What I also find interesting, is that Josh's analysis only includes the first, and short, busy period of the year.

Another analysis we saw earlier this year, up until the week before presidents day week, saw no significant increases in wait times ... Now we are seeing significant increases. What is this picture going to look like by the end of summer ? Or after spring break weeks ?

I don't think there are any issues with the FP+ system when crowd levels are low -- at times there may be nobody in the SB line who has to wait for the FP return line to clear, as well as times when there is nobody in the FP return line so the SB line can ride. But as crowd levels increase they will reach a point where the FP line begins to hold up the SB line, and the wait in SB will increase exponentially, not linearly, because no matter how many more guests are there is still only 1 ride. It is at this point that the system breaks down.

Bingo. And believe it or not, that is all that matters to me.

Same. I just want to have more fun on my VACATION.

Yes - for people who "FP'd their brains out" they are probably going to spend more time in line. Myself and most DIS'rs will probably fall into that catagory.

I have seen Josh and the people at Touring Plans state many times that the percentage of people who do extensive research and know how to fully navigate the FP system before they arrive is very low.

Josh states in the article that many of these rides are seeing increased use of FP which is a virtual queing system. With more people using FP the overall system is more efficient for the overall pool of guests. That is a net positive even if a small percentage of people like you and I will be negatively impacted.

While it may be more efficient, and that's probably how the IT people sold it to the execs, your argument assumes that people will want to tour parks on a schedule. I don't think that's the case, and I don't think they can sell it to people who have never been to the parks.

Your argument assume that people will feel as well off riding fewer rides with slightly shorter waits (because the FP return line does not have zero wait time), and that all families will be better off having their touring scheduled. I think there are so many components that contribute to families having a good vacation that ARE negatively impacted that you can't conclude that the system is better for even most people.

There are reasons why the operations people were against this sytem but the IT people won out. I think we see this time and time again when technological concepts are put into practice and IMO it's a result of taking less advice from people like economists and engineers, and wanting that shiny new thing. Just because you CAN do something doesn't always mean that you SHOULD.

 

[morethananyonex]

People who want to sleep until noon and people that don't want to ride headliners.

Don't forget the people who want to ride 3 rides and spend the rest of their day shopping on Disney property, eating at signature restaurants and bowling at Splitsville. Oh wait, that's who Disney wants using the system. I think that percentage of the Disney population is smaller than the super users of the DIS percentage.

 

[2Tiggies]

Don't forget the people who want to ride 3 rides and spend the rest of their day shopping on Disney property, eating at signature restaurants and bowling at Splitsville. Oh wait, that's who Disney wants using the system. I think that percentage of the Disney population is smaller than the super users of the DIS percentage.

Your logic sounds about right to me!

 

[JimmyV]

What if they got there at opening and road Test Track first? (and then had scheduled fast pass for Soarin and other picks)

No, that won't work. (And I'm glad you took the bait). The family in June, 2013 could have arrived earlier as well, gone to Test Track at Rope Drop, and still gotten back on their 9:30 schedule. So adding RD to the equation definitely saves the family of today some time, but it also would have gotten the 2013 family an extra ride on a headliner making it such that they come out ahead. You cannot make the 2014 family come out on top of the 2013 family. You just can't.

 

[DividedSky]

No, that won't work. (And I'm glad you took the bait).

an admission of trolling?

 

[MrInfinity]

So who is FP+ helping?

It is helping those massive numbers of ppl that did not use FP- but who do have and use Smartphones. Even the non-techhies I'm going with have all loaded the MDE app on their phone and played with it.

FP+ reaches so many more people than FP- ever did. That's why we were all able to do so well with FP-, cuz most ppl didn't use it.