*** Updated to add spring break Data*** New Data, FP+ impacting wait times, discuss

[2Tiggies]

Are these wait times posted by Josh actual wait times, or posted wait times? Reports of late have led me to view these as vastly different.

 

[Planogirl]

Logic (fuzzy or otherwise) aside , I put a lot of value into what Josh finds out. I can't see this as a positive when the refrain is to just wait in line if you want to ride something more than once.

 

[MrInfinity]

You just made up a number and threw it in there, like, FP return takes 8 mins, yea ok, that fits what I am trying to prove.

Ok, so tell me the actual number.

And you are only looking at a SINGLE ride, with 200 people, and no calculation of throughput, how MANY people rode FP vs SB .... or the impact of choosing toe FP Dinosaur instead of other rides.

You introduce tons of great variables here! We don't have any of that data. So drawing the conclusion that FP+ led to people on average spending more time in line to ride Dinosaur is clearly ignoring most of those important points you're making. Yes those who rode standby waited longer. But more ppl went via FP+ and waited less.

 

[JimmyV]

But those same ppl who are picking POTC aren't picking "more valuable" rides so everyone should really be happy they're doing this, no?

So here's the slogan that Mom2rtk has been searching for:
"FP+. Everyone gets screwed equally."

 

[Planogirl]

Yes those who rode standby waited longer. But more ppl went via FP+ and waited less.

In effect this is just shifting the time from one group to another if your logic is right. If so many people get Dinosaur FP+ then of course they would swamp the standby crowd. I don't see that as a good thing.

 

[mom2rtk]

So here's the slogan that Mom2rtk has been searching for:
"FP+. Everyone gets screwed equally."

Oooooooohhhhhh..... we might just have a winner!

I'll get back with you after I run it past the marketing heads.

It certainly garners big points with me for accuracy.

 

[WillAustin]

The article is drawing a connection between longer waits and FP+. That connection is arbitrary and chosen to make a point. You can always slice data to make a point if that is your goal.

Actually, Josh previously posted an article that didn't show this connection, so he has no agenda. This new article uses more data than first one.

So here's the slogan that Mom2rtk has been searching for:
"FP+. Everyone gets screwed equally."

Yep, if I'm going to have to wait in a long line, they'd better make sure everyone else has to also!

 

[NavyDad]

I thought this part was fascinating...



This means that Standby, as we used to know it anyway, is gone. Now it is truly a Standby line (like the way the airlines use the term). And then I wonder, if this is true, what do the wait times even mean?

Couple this with that survey about getting rolling FPs, it seems like Disney is moving towards 100% virtual lines.

I agree with your conclussion. Disney is taking steps towards 100% virtual lines which would actually be much more efficient than standing in a line.

The problem is a more efficient system scares the heck out of must of us because due to extensive research and experience many of us were able to fully exploit inefficiency in the system to our advantage.

 

[MrInfinity]

Logic (fuzzy or otherwise) aside , I put a lot of value into what Josh finds out. I can't see this as a positive when the refrain is to just wait in line if you want to ride something more than once.

I do too... The one calendar site I recommend is easywdw. I like his verbiage, and his reasons largely coincide w my own. However, the data, as presented, is not evidence that FP+ is leading to longer overall average waits for Tier-2 rides. They may be longer for standby, but more ppl are fast passing them. As Shaden points out, we would need more specific data to accurately draw such cause-and-effect.

Yes, sadly. The refrain is, "if you want to repeat-ride something more than once or twice, you can expect to wait for those who have not ridden it once but chose to prioritize it".

The average wait time for ppl who want to ride Soarin 3 or more times in a day will be up. No contest there, I see that. But the average wait time of all people riding Soarin is going to be about the same. You are after all, waiting longer for that 3rd ride only because other ppl are being let go ahead of you for their FP slot - and therefore they are waiting by an equal amount less.

 

[NavyDad]

In effect this is just shifting the time from one group to another if your logic is right. If so many people get Dinosaur FP+ then of course they would swamp the standby crowd. I don't see that as a good thing.

Because Disney is trying to transition to a higher percentage riding FP and a lower percentage riding STBY. They are giving an incentive to the more efficient method.

 

[MrInfinity]

Also, maybe I am wrong but I don't believe data showing that standby lines are longer actually means more people are spending more time in lines. It sounds like more total people are using fastpass over all so total man-hours spent in line per day could actually be significantly lower.

From Disney's perspective - if a small percentage of us "Comandos" are spending more time in lines but a larger percentage of people are using Fastpass and getting through the line quicker (even if this has the consequence of increasing stby times of some rides), then the system is working brilliantly for them.

Exactly.

 

[redrosesix]

How do we know this again ?
We don't have numbers on actual attendance, unless I have missed something. In which case, do show. You would also have to establish that this was true over the entire period since the beginning of the year. From what we had seen last year, it didn't seem attendance was up, but rather increased spending per person was up.

When they did their earnings report THEY said revenue increases were due to price increases -- park attendance and resort reservations were reported as having no change.

I thought this part was fascinating...



This means that Standby, as we used to know it anyway, is gone. Now it is truly a Standby line (like the way the airlines use the term). And then I wonder, if this is true, what do the wait times even mean?

Couple this with that survey about getting rolling FPs, it seems like Disney is moving towards 100% virtual lines.

I think so too -- it certainly would make their job easier if every ride and meal was pre-booked in advance. They would be able to fine tune capacity for rides and restaurants down to the hour, saving them tons of money in labour and other operating expenses.

Just for fun, let's analyze further:

Let's take 200 people. In 2013, the article asserts the Dinosaur wait was an average of 15 min. Great!

Now in 2014, the standby wait is 25 min but the FP wait is (?) 8 min.

Say everybody who wants to ride Dinosaur, takes a FP for it (being the 3rd of the 3 best options at the park, given most will take their FP for 3 of KS, EE, D, and KRR and rope drop the 4th).

So now 150 ppl ride it via FP, getting on in 8 min.
50 ppl ride it via Standby, waiting 25 min.

Net average wait time? 12 minutes. (8*150+50*25)/200

You guessed it. MOST people, waited LESS time. The only ppl who have to wait more time are those who want to repeat-ride several times in a day -- because, they have to wait for those ppl who haven't done their one yet. This is essentially "you don't get seconds if others haven't gotten firsts".

In all this, you have to consider the fundamental: The Dinosaur ride is still servicing the same number of riders that it did before. Are more people wanting to ride Dinosaur now that FP+ "encourages" you to do more than just EE? Maybe... but that's not a bad thing either.

The data is only as good as the analysis behind it...

Wait... you still have me in SB for 10 minutes longer!!!!

And I'm not even going to argue the example -- none of us have the kind of data to prove a model like the one you presented.

But I'm still in SB 10 minutes longer!!! And in your example, I was in the FP return line for 8 minutes -- but that's probably at least 7 minutes longer than the old FP- line was. So the FP return line takes longer. And if I rode both FP and SB (8 minutes plus 25 minutes) it still would take me 3 minutes longer than riding SB twice a year ago.

Nevermind that I don't agree with your example, your example has me waiting in lines longer than a year ago no matter what I do. As a guest I'm not happier waiting in longer lines.

 

[Planogirl]

I do too... The one calendar site I recommend is easywdw. I like his verbiage, and his reasons largely coincide w my own. However, the data, as presented, is not evidence that FP+ is leading to longer overall average waits for Tier-2 rides. They may be longer for standby, but more ppl are fast passing them. As Shaden points out, we would need more specific data to accurately draw such cause-and-effect.

Yes, sadly. The refrain is, "if you want to repeat-ride something more than once or twice, you can expect to wait for those who have not ridden it once but chose to prioritize it".

The average wait time for ppl who want to ride Soarin 3 or more times in a day will be up. No contest there, I see that. But the average wait time of all people riding Soarin is going to be about the same. You are after all, waiting longer for that 3rd ride only because other ppl are being let go ahead of you for their FP slot - and therefore they are waiting by an equal amount less.

I'm not really talking about a ride as popular as Soarin'. Take Star Tours for example. We really like to ride this one more than once which makes sense with all of the different possible scenarios. Josh's information shows average wait time increase for this ride even though I can't imagine that a huge number of people would select it for FP+. I would of course but would many others?

 

[NavyDad]

I do too... The one calendar site I recommend is easywdw. I like his verbiage, and his reasons largely coincide w my own. However, the data, as presented, is not evidence that FP+ is leading to longer overall average waits for Tier-2 rides. They may be longer for standby, but more ppl are fast passing them. As Shaden points out, we would need more specific data to accurately draw such cause-and-effect.
Yes, sadly. The refrain is, "if you want to repeat-ride something more than once or twice, you can expect to wait for those who have not ridden it once but chose to prioritize it".

The average wait time for ppl who want to ride Soarin 3 or more times in a day will be up. No contest there, I see that. But the average wait time of all people riding Soarin is going to be about the same. You are after all, waiting longer for that 3rd ride only because other ppl are being let go ahead of you for their FP slot - and therefore they are waiting by an equal amount less.

Fuzzy hit the nail on the head.....

The data Josh is presenting is not showing that overall time in line is increasing....

 

[Planogirl]

Because Disney is trying to transition to a higher percentage riding FP and a lower percentage riding STBY. They are giving an incentive to the more efficient method.

That's fine when it comes to three rides per day. We tend to ride way more than that and I imagine that most people do which is why I'm concerned. Three only and all on different rides just isn't enough.

 

[MrInfinity]

Nevermind that I don't agree with your example, your example has me waiting in lines longer than a year ago no matter what I do. As a guest I'm not happier waiting in longer lines.

I think we actually agree more than you think. I agree the SB line is longer. No contest there! But you are waiting longer in SB, because someone else is getting to go ahead of you and is waiting equally less. Right? They're not just "stopping the line and making you wait".

I've said it many times, that FP+ gets more ppl on a few rides quickly, and anyone that wants to ride many times is going to have to wait for those that want to ride once.

That does not mean wait times are longer "on average". They're only longer "for some". Every extra minute you spend in line, is one minute someone else didn't. So the average didn't go up! There's just ppl being prioritized ahead of you.

 

[Shaden]

Fuzzy hit the nail on the head.....

The data Josh is presenting is not showing that overall time in line is increasing....

The data is showing that MY overall time in line is increasing ...

But here is the thing, this isn't just for the 1% like you said earlier.

Even our first trip to WDW a few years ago, we figured out how to FP things, all on our own, without the DisBoards. And we FP'd our brains out. Lots of people were able to smartly navigate the parks, and avoid SB lines by pulling FPs. Not just the 1% Disboarders.

What I also find interesting, is that Josh's analysis only includes the first, and short, busy period of the year.

Another analysis we saw earlier this year, up until the week before presidents day week, saw no significant increases in wait times ... Now we are seeing significant increases. What is this picture going to look like by the end of summer ? Or after spring break weeks ?

 

[NavyDad]

That's fine when it comes to three rides per day. We tend to ride way more than that and I imagine that most people do which is why I'm concerned. Three only and all on different rides just isn't enough.

I hear you for sure. And as Josh stated stby times at the begining of the day and end of the day remain short so there will still be an incentive for being there at rope drope or staying until close.

 

[redrosesix]

No argumentativeness taken. It's all good.

My point was that when you have a belief, it's easy to interpret the data as supporting your belief. If people don't like FP+, they can read data about longer waits and say FP+ caused it. When really, the longer waits may be caused by other things, if they're really longer at all... (see math above, they're only actually longer for repeat riders because they have to wait for ppl that want to ride once and who pulled a FP).

So yes, those ppl who want to ride POTC, have to wait for those who chose to prioritize it and make it an FP+ of theirs. But those same ppl who are picking POTC aren't picking "more valuable" rides so everyone should really be happy they're doing this, no?

Yeah, saw it -- that argument didn't work for me. Still don't see where SB lines are 20 percent shorter, as you stated.

Whether you like the concept of FP+ or not, I think the ride data and the arguments made in the article show that prioritizing the FP return line is what ultimately breaks the system. It's also what limits the number of FPs available (I don't think they can increase the number per day, except maybe during very low crowd times) because then SB riders might never get to ride.

As a guest, you still have me waiting in all lines longer and doing less rides. I'm not happier.

 

[mom2rtk]

The data is showing that MY overall time in line is increasing ...

Bingo. And believe it or not, that is all that matters to me.