*** Updated to add spring break Data*** New Data, FP+ impacting wait times, discuss

[Mad Hattered]

an admission of trolling?

Couldn't the same be said of you? What is your analysis?

 

[morethananyonex]

an admission of trolling?

All the trolls I've seen post in depth thoughtful analysis frequently without being argumentative or rude. Totally a troll.

 

[JimmyV]

So you have...
Nemo, Figment, and LWTL between 9 and 11:30 *great, easy*
A FP for soarin around 11:30 *fine*
Lunch at 12, followed by...
Ellen, Innoventions, Test Track and Mission Space by 5:30...
and a Late Test Track?

That's not all that much. I can easily make a schedule to fit in all that.

It won't matter what you do. I intentionally plotted out a very casual, non-commando day. The more commando you make t, the more I come out ahead. It's simple really, (which is why I said that we are overthinking this). Let's remove the constants, which are standby waits for:

• Living With The Land.
• Nemo and Living Seas.
• Journey Into Imagination.
• Ellen's Energy Adventure.
• Innoventions.

and Fast Pass waits for:

• Soarin'
• Mission Space

Let's assume that Josh is wrong and that both the standby waits and FP return waits in 2013=2014.

So the change is, 2013 family rides Test Track with a FP and rides Spaceship Earth standby.

The 2014 family rides Spaceship Earth with a FP and Test Track standby. Simple math. Which will be the longer cumulative time in line? the 2013 family wins every time.

 

[2Tiggies]

It is helping those massive numbers of ppl that did not use FP- but who do have and use Smartphones. Even the non-techhies I'm going with have all loaded the MDE app on their phone and played with it.

FP+ reaches so many more people than FP- ever did. That's why we were all able to do so well with FP-, cuz most ppl didn't use it.

But many of those people who did not use FP- chose not to do so because they felt they could achieve what they wanted to, the way they wanted to, without having to schedule their every move in advance. Many who chose not to use FP- really opted out of it; not everyone who didn't use it didn't know about it. Now that sector of visitors feel they can no longer apply the strategies they did in the past because the knock on effect on wait times park wide have made this a less desirable option.

 

[WillAustin]

I agree the SB line is longer. No contest there!

If this is the case, we will be waiting longer and in more standby lines than before since we can now only use 3 FP+s. Huge downgrade for us.

 

[JimmyV]

People who want to sleep until noon and people that don't want to ride headliners.

So it helps the subset listed above, and it hurts everyone else? Where do people think the balance lies? I didn't see anything in the msn article that quoted a Disney rep as stating that this revolutionary system was designed to help people who sleep til noon.

 

[DividedSky]

People don’t like to stand in lines. People got to know the old system, and how to use it to avoid lines.

And here we are comparing 45 days from the old system, after being in place for years and years, to a system that essentially started on 1/15….essentially The first 45 days of the new system

Guess what, people haven’t figured out the most efficient use of the new system. Guess what else - Inefficient touring increases stand by lines.

What next? A case study in how a 45 day old child is less dependent then a 45 month old child?

 

[2Tiggies]

If this is the case, we will be waiting longer and in more standby lines than before since we can now only use 3 FP+s. Huge downgrade for us.

Exactly. And this is where the discussion always comes back to because this is how it is.

I mean, what's the difference between the person who gets there the day of to make FP+ reservations at a kiosk and the headliners are gone so they take one for Nemo, Figment and Living with the Land .... and the person who used to get there the day of, late, with no plans and would happily choose to burn 60 minutes in line for Test Track (because remember in the past, when the line said 60 it was usually more or less correct), and then strolled through the former three lesser attractions with little to know wait? The difference is that the way it used to be done gave the guest options. Without being locked into a return time, you could assess for yourself how you feel. Really, unless attractions have always just been an optional extra or added bonus to what you wanted to do in the parks, I am still hard pressed to coming even close to being persuaded that FP+ is a benefit, time saving or otherwise, to even half the guests.

 

[JimmyV]

It is helping those massive numbers of ppl that did not use FP- but who do have and use Smartphones. Even the non-techhies I'm going with have all loaded the MDE app on their phone and played with it.

FP+ reaches so many more people than FP- ever did. That's why we were all able to do so well with FP-, cuz most ppl didn't use it.

A simple plan of crowd education could have boosted FP- usage. Instead, we afre now saddled with a system that benefits the selfish. The "me, me, me" attitude is winning. "I want to stay out late, sleep in, and get the same usage out of the park the next day as the family that goes to the park all day. I want to invest less time and effort and reap the same rewards." Well, good on that. That approach is winning the battle. So far.

 

[WillAustin]

So it helps the subset you list above, and it hurts everyone else? Where do you think the balance lies?

Apparently it depends on which group you fall into.

 

[JimmyV]

an admission of trolling?

Trolling is a post that is intended to invite a reaction. My post invited a question. It is always best in a debate to cause people to ask questions and perhaps challenge their own belief system. I believe that is what happened there.

 

[Shaden]

People don’t like to stand in lines. People got to know the old system, and how to use it to avoid lines.

And here we are comparing 45 days from the old system, after being in place for years and years, to a system that essentially started on 1/15….essentially The first 45 days of the new system

Guess what, people haven’t figured out the most efficient use of the new system. Guess what else - Inefficient touring increases stand by lines.

What next? A case study in how a 45 day old child is less dependent then a 45 month old child?

Buaahahahah ...

Witness the transition, from usually ridiculous defense of the system to now, abstract justifications/promises of a better system at some point in the future because ... people will get better at it ?

Despite the fact we have heard over and over that return customers are a small portion of WDW guests and its only us DISers that learned to maximize the system, no one else did, etc etc.

The logic fails are abundant.

The good ol' "trust me".

Powerful, great analysis based on solid numbers and thought.

 

[DividedSky]

Couldn't the same be said of you? What is your analysis?

my analysis is people with an agenda are clinging to an incomplete subset of data in a rush to judgement.

without park attendance numbers, and ride malfunction variables, I see this as completely unscientific

 

[Shaden]

Powerful, great analysis based on solid numbers and thought.

Speaking of powerful, great analysis based on solid numbers and thought ...

Where the heck IS bcrook on this ??? Does he have a real life/job or something !?!?!?!

 

[MrInfinity]

So the change is, 2013 family rides Test Track with a FP and rides Spaceship Earth standby.

The 2014 family rides Spaceship Earth with a FP and Test Track standby. Simple math. Which will be the longer cumulative time in line? the 2013 family wins every time.

In both cases, you could do something else good at rope drop like an extra Soarin, so this is a nice breakdown. I'd agree it comes down to basically that tradeoff. Whereas in 2013 you could get a FP to Soarin and TT (with considerable crossing of the park and planning how to run to grab these), now, you'll take a FP to one or the other, and use your other FP on SE. And yes, the wait for TT (now) will be more than the wait for SE (then). Fair conclusion.

So yes, this particular family waits a bit longer.

But then what you call a non-commando casual approach was actually pretty Commando. You had several good techniques in there (which were available to all but used by few) -- pulling FPs but saving them till later plus double dipping... We already established MOST people did not tour this way. You might have thought to do this... but simply most people did not. They show up, they walk to a ride, then enter. This is really hard for a commando to grasp because it makes so little sense to tour so inefficiently - but people - masses of them - toured this way. They would not enter the park with a Fastpass strategy of how to get a FP to both Soarin and TT by optimizing fastpass pulls. However these same families that would not research that, ARE using MDE. THAT is the difference. Market penetration. FP+ is being used by people that did not use FP- before.

You are now being forced to share what was once your "FP advantage" with every other person who didn't bother before.

 

[Jennasis]

It is helping those massive numbers of ppl that did not use FP- but who do have and use Smartphones. Even the non-techhies I'm going with have all loaded the MDE app on their phone and played with it.

FP+ reaches so many more people than FP- ever did. That's why we were all able to do so well with FP-, cuz most ppl didn't use it.

There is no way I will ever be convinced that the new system reaches/benefits non-tech folks more or better than original recipe FP.

 

[NavyDad]

As a general matter, we are all guilty of over-thinking this. (Myself included). Consider the following. A family who, in June, 2013, went to Epcot, arrived at 9:30 and did the following:

• Walked to Soarin' and pulled a FP with a return time of 11:30.
• Rode Living With The Land.
• Rode Nemo and explored Living Seas.
• They rode Journey Into Imagination.
• Their new FP window opened up, so they got one for Test Track with a return time of 4:00.
• They rode Soarin' with their FP then had lunch at Sunshine Seasons.
• They rode Ellen's Energy Adventure.
• They spent some time at Innoventions.
• Their new FP window opened up so they got one for Mission Space with a return time of 5:30.
• They walked around World Showcase.
• They returned to Future World to use their FPs for Test Track and Mission Space.
• They rode Spaceship Earth.

Now, this same family arrives at 9:30 and has FPs reserved for Soarin' at 11:30, Mission Space at 1:00 and Spaceship Earth at 2:00. There is no way that this family will be able to repeat their typical day at Epcot without spending more net time in lines. And I don't think that this hypothetical family is unusual, or were 1% super users. So who is FP+ helping?

Actually JimmyV I think you are trying to get people to under-think it with this anecdote to support your opinion.

Josh has stated that wait times remain short early and late in the day.

Very basic knowledge of queueing theory will explain that many people will be helped by FP+.

Basically the non-preemptive priority Queue (FP) is more efficient then the First in - First Out Queue(STBY) line. Disney is basically networking these two types of queues right now but the more people that use the priority queue over the FI-FO Queue the more efficient the system will be.

By going from FP legacy to Plus Disney was hoping to increase awareness of and give an incentive to using the more efficient system. I think Josh's data that FP use on many rides is up means that their strategy was succesful. As with any queueing system there is probably room for improvement. Right now they are using Tier and time slot to determine priority but they could easily change their priority formula. An example could be giving more FP at less busy times of day or days of the month.

I think people are cherry-picking one data point (STBY times) from Josh's article and using that to justify their opinion of the system.

I don't want to sound like I am dis-regarding peoples concerns. We all work hard for our money and should spend it where and how we see fit. There will be some people that are impacted in a negative way by this system and may choose not to spend their money on a Disney vacation. There will be many others who still enjoy Disney but will need to change how they visit. Overall, an increase in efficiency of the system is going to impact the majority of guests in a positive way.

 

[JimmyV]

In both cases, you could do something else good at rope drop like an extra Soarin, so this is a nice breakdown. I'd agree it comes down to basically that tradeoff. Whereas in 2013 you could get a FP to Soarin and TT (with considerable crossing of the park and planning how to run to grab these), now, you'll take a FP to one or the other, and use your other FP on SE. And yes, the wait for TT (now) will be more than the wait for SE (then). Fair conclusion.

Inescapable, really.

But then what you call a non-commando casual approach was actually pretty Commando.

But you yourself said that this wasn't very much to do in a day.

You had several good techniques in there (which were available to all but used by few) -- pulling FPs but saving them till later plus double dipping... We already established MOST people did not tour this way.

Much of this debate hinges on invented data, and I submit that the statement above is made up. (Not necessarily by you. But it is an oft-used refrain that we don't have data points on. Just Disney's say-so as they rolled out their billion dollar baby.) Even if true, how hard would it be to teach the 50% who didn't use FP- to do so? FP- was not a MENSA qulification exam.

You are now being forced to share what was once your "FP advantage" with every other person who didn't bother before.

Not only with people who didn't use it, but with people who want to do a "hit and run" three hour trip to a park and who feel entitled to accomplish the same goals as me when I am in the park for 10 hours. Not hard to see why people are upset. But at least we are drilling down to the truth here. FP+ is NOT helping people do more. It is forcing people to do the same. This entire thread started as a discussion on whether lines were lengthening. I think we can now see that, at least at the "Tiered" parks, people will have to spend more time in line. The percentage of people who used o get a FP for both Test Track and Soarin' is unknow. But it was greater than zero. It is now zero.

 

[JanaDee]

It is helping those massive numbers of ppl that did not use FP- but who do have and use Smartphones. Even the non-techhies I'm going with have all loaded the MDE app on their phone and played with it.

FP+ reaches so many more people than FP- ever did. That's why we were all able to do so well with FP-, cuz most ppl didn't use it.

Everyone had equal opportunity to use FP with the legacy system. If they chose not to use it, it wasn't my problem.

 

[JimmyV]

Actually JimmyV I think you are trying to get people to under-think it with this anecdote to support your opinion.

Math is math. Test Track > Spaceship Earth. If you cannot get a FP for both Soarin' and Test Track, your cumulative time in line to ride both rides will be greater. That is not underthinking the issue. It focuses the attention exactly where it is supposed to be. Yes, rope drop is an andetode. But the 2013 family could have employed that strategy as well and gotten more rides in.