*** Updated to add spring break Data*** New Data, FP+ impacting wait times, discuss

[FreeThinker]

Is there a place to see the amount of people who were in each park on each day? Has attendance gone up?

I'm off-site in May, hoping FP+ is better than it is right now!

 

[morethananyonex]

Of course! Because when you have a ride that was a 5 min standby, like GMR, Figment, Nemo, etc, and then you add in a FP+ line, now that 5 minute standby turns into a 10 or 15 minute standby because the FP line will be taken before the standby line.

I saw this with GMR in February. We didn't wait long, overall, but waited longer than normal. All while people were going through the FP+ line. I don't get FPing rides like this. But people are going to do it, which will make the standby line for those rides longer. Maybe only 5 or 10 minutes, but it's 5 or 10 minutes longer that it doesn't need to be.

Case in point the thread yesterday or the day before where the OP just decided to go to Epcot and picked Nemo and Figment as two of her FPs.

We used FP+ for GMR, there really wasn't a better option to use it on. That's the problem with FP+, we were forced to take one for a ride that didn't need one.

We obviously had our TSMM and ToT FP+ as our other two choices, but what are we left with for the third? The next best choice is Star Tours, and GMR actually had a longer wait when we were there. We did skip 15 or so minutes of line there, which normally isn't really FP worthy but what else are we supposed to do? Use a FP for Muppets? We had the thing, so that's why we used it.

 

[Shaden]

Well I, for one, sure didn't see this coming. How long have "we" been saying this would be the case? Now we just need bcrook to see this thread.

Thanks for the link, Shaden!

I was thinking the same thing about Bcrook, he needs to get in on this if he hasn't already

And you are welcome of course.

 

[morethananyonex]

http://www.disboards.com/showpost.php?p=50913008&postcount=5

Mommy brain

 

[Mad Hattered]

What did you lose? The article is drawing a connection between longer waits and FP+. That connection is arbitrary and chosen to make a point. You can always slice data to make a point if that is your goal.

The longer wait times are more likely due to the fact that attendance is up in 2014, not due to the FP+. Or say it's due to FP+ if you prefer, but that's probly not the case, as we know attendance is up this year and heavier crowds are likely to be the cause of longer wait times.

Where can we find Disney's attendance numbers for 2014 up to this point?

 

[AmyB2006]

We used FP+ for GMR, there really wasn't a better option to use it on. That's the problem with FP+, we were forced to take one for a ride that didn't need one.

We obviously had our TSMM and ToT FP+ as our other two choices, but what are we left with for the third? The next best choice is Star Tours, and GMR actually had a longer wait when we were there. We did skip 15 or so minutes of line there, which normally isn't really FP worthy but what else are we supposed to do? Use a FP for Muppets? We had the thing, so that's why we used it.

Problem #1 and Problem #2. LOL

 

[amg35]

Yes, but keep in mind that most of 2014 so far has been during Disney's slowest months historically. Josh can only compare January-first week of March. The modest line growth (5-15 minutes) will magnify as the data for heavier crowd days becomes available. I can tell you that the difference over President's Day weekend was not 5-10 minutes for secondary attractions. And while the waits for headliners built up to pretty much "nomal" length, they did so much faster. Instead of Test Track building from 20 to 30 to 40 to 50 to 70 minutes over time, it went from 20 to 70 minutes in between 9:00 and 9:30.

Thanks.

It is what it is.

Luckily, I'm going end of October, we are most definitely rope droppers and it's a long trip. Also, we don't mind standing in wait times of 30-45 minutes or so. But that's just us.

We'll make due and have a blast I'm sure.

 

[morethananyonex]

Problem #1 and Problem #2. LOL

Yup lol. So silly. But at least we knew better than to use it for Muppets . I feel bad for people who don't and think "oh hey, I like Muppets!" when booking their FP+ times and stroll into the pre show area right alongside everyone else.

 

[Shaden]

What did you lose? The article is drawing a connection between longer waits and FP+. That connection is arbitrary and chosen to make a point. You can always slice data to make a point if that is your goal.

The longer wait times are more likely due to the fact that attendance is up in 2014, not due to the FP+. Or say it's due to FP+ if you prefer, but that's probly not the case, as we know attendance is up this year and heavier crowds are likely to be the cause of longer wait times.

How do we know this again ?
We don't have numbers on actual attendance, unless I have missed something. In which case, do show. You would also have to establish that this was true over the entire period since the beginning of the year. From what we had seen last year, it didn't seem attendance was up, but rather increased spending per person was up.

 

[morethananyonex]

If increased attendance is the reason for increased wait times, why are many of the headliners showing decreases in wait times while the secondary rides are showing increases? To me, that points directly at FP+. There would be no other reason for large amounts of guests to change their touring strategies in 2014.

 

[Mad Hattered]

If increased attendance is the reason for increased wait times, why are many of the headliners showing decreases in wait times while the secondary rides are showing increases? To me, that points directly at FP+. There would be no other reason for large amounts of guests to change their touring strategies in 2014.

Winner winner chicken dinner!

 

[ArwenMarie]

I thought this part was fascinating...

Remember that FASTPASS/FastPass+ holders receive priority boarding. If there are 100 people waiting in standby and 100 people in FASTPASS, the 100th person in the FASTPASS line will likely board before the 30th person in standby. If there are 300 people in FASTPASS and 100 in standby, the 300th FASTPASS user will likely board before the 100th person in standby because FASTPASS users are so heavily favored.

This means that Standby, as we used to know it anyway, is gone. Now it is truly a Standby line (like the way the airlines use the term). And then I wonder, if this is true, what do the wait times even mean?

Couple this with that survey about getting rolling FPs, it seems like Disney is moving towards 100% virtual lines.

 

[MrInfinity]

Just for fun, let's analyze further:

Let's take 200 people. In 2013, the article asserts the Dinosaur wait was an average of 15 min. Great!

Now in 2014, the standby wait is 25 min but the FP wait is (?) 8 min.

Say everybody who wants to ride Dinosaur, takes a FP for it (being the 3rd of the 3 best options at the park, given most will take their FP for 3 of KS, EE, D, and KRR and rope drop the 4th).

So now 150 ppl ride it via FP, getting on in 8 min.
50 ppl ride it via Standby, waiting 25 min.

Net average wait time? 12 minutes. (8*150+50*25)/200

You guessed it. MOST people, waited LESS time. The only ppl who have to wait more time are those who want to repeat-ride several times in a day -- because, they have to wait for those ppl who haven't done their one yet. This is essentially "you don't get seconds if others haven't gotten firsts".

In all this, you have to consider the fundamental: The Dinosaur ride is still servicing the same number of riders that it did before. Are more people wanting to ride Dinosaur now that FP+ "encourages" you to do more than just EE? Maybe... but that's not a bad thing either.

The data is only as good as the analysis behind it...

 

[JimmyV]

The longer wait times are more likely due to the fact that attendance is up in 2014, not due to the FP+.

It is easy to establish that SB lines will be longer with FP+, especially for rides that never had FP-. At PoTC, if you were the 500th person in a line of 800 before, you were the 500th person to board. Now, take the same 800 people and assume that 10% get FPs. So there are 700 people in the SB line and 100 people in the FP line. 10% of the people in front of you before (50) are in the FP line and board before you. But they were ahead of you before so there is no change. But 10% of the people beind you (30) are now in the FP line and are ahead of you.
Total number of people ahead of you=450+50+30. You are now #531 to board.
And this doesn't even take into account that a ride like PoTC has a"right" and "left" boarding side. If the right side is reserved only for FP+ people and the boats go out half-filled, the you will wait even longer because it will take more actual boats to depart before you can ride.

 

[Shaden]

If increased attendance is the reason for increased wait times, why are many of the headliners showing decreases in wait times while the secondary rides are showing increases? To me, that points directly at FP+. There would be no other reason for large amounts of guests to change their touring strategies in 2014.

Indeed, and great that maybe I can save 5 or 10 mins off a 70 minute wait time, that I would never wait for anyway. But if, then the secondary rides that I count on being short/walk on double or more in wait time, how is this system good for me again?

I don't actually save any time, since I wouldn't stand in the 70 minute wait line, I'd have fast passed it, possibly more than once if I wanted to, but now will have to stand in lines for the other rides ... unless I want to skip headliners, or wait in 70 min lines, to use my precious few FPs to ride rides that I used to be able to walk onto with little or no wait ???

 

[redrosesix]

What did you lose? The article is drawing a connection between longer waits and FP+. That connection is arbitrary and chosen to make a point. You can always slice data to make a point if that is your goal.

The longer wait times are more likely due to the fact that attendance is up in 2014, not due to the FP+. Or say it's due to FP+ if you prefer, but that's probly not the case, as we know attendance is up this year and heavier crowds are likely to be the cause of longer wait times.

You said this..."But thanks to new ride management solutions like the revolutionary FP+, guests are able to get on 20% faster, reducing standby from 30 to 25 minutes"

I'm not being argumentative, I'm trying to understand your argument.

 

[JimmyV]

Say everybody who wants to ride Dinosaur, takes a FP for it this is an odd assumption. EE, KS and KRR (plus meet and greets) will all get more FP+ usage than D. Most people will be in the SB line and get cut off by a trickle of FP people. But that trickle will have an impact ...given most will take their FP for 3 of KS, EE, D, and KRR and rope drop the 4th).Rope Drop? I thought FP+ was supposed to allow people to lounge by the pool before arriving.


The data is only as good as the analysis behind it...

And the data is only as good as that which you invent. You can invent data that WDW is experiencing record crowds and thatmost people will get a FP+ for Dinosaur. But we need more than ipse dixit.

 

[Shaden]

Just for fun, let's analyze further:

Let's take 200 people. In 2013, the article asserts the Dinosaur wait was an average of 15 min. Great!

Now in 2014, the standby wait is 25 min but the FP wait is (?) 8 min.

Say everybody who wants to ride Dinosaur, takes a FP for it (being the 3rd of the 3 best options at the park, given most will take their FP for 3 of KS, EE, D, and KRR and rope drop the 4th).

So now 150 ppl ride it via FP, getting on in 8 min.
50 ppl ride it via Standby, waiting 25 min.

Net average wait time? 12 minutes. (8*150+50*25)/200

You guessed it. MOST people, waited LESS time. The only ppl who have to wait more time are those who want to repeat-ride several times in a day -- because, they have to wait for those ppl who haven't done their one yet. This is essentially "you don't get seconds if others haven't gotten firsts".

In all this, you have to consider the fundamental: The Dinosaur ride is still servicing the same number of riders that it did before. Are more people wanting to ride Dinosaur now that FP+ "encourages" you to do more than just EE? Maybe... but that's not a bad thing either.

The data is only as good as the analysis behind it...

Lol, except your analysis is terrible !!!

You just made up a number and threw it in there, like, FP return takes 8 mins, yea ok, that fits what I am trying to prove.

Secondly the median wait increased from 15 to 30 mins, not 15 to 25. Though with your assumed numbers you could still argue that the "average wait" is shorter.

And you are only looking at a SINGLE ride, with 200 people, and no calculation of throughput, how MANY people rode FP vs SB .... or the impact of choosing toe FP Dinosaur instead of other rides.

Just play with your numbers a little, assume a 50/50 split of FP/SB.

100*8 (I guess since we are using that made up number) 100*30. / 200

Oooooh, 19 mins. Yup, "average" wait time is up.

Seriously, whilst making up numbers to serve your "analysis" you should not accuse others of "bad analysis" ...

 

[MrInfinity]

I'm not being argumentative, I'm trying to understand your argument.

No argumentativeness taken. It's all good.

My point was that when you have a belief, it's easy to interpret the data as supporting your belief. If people don't like FP+, they can read data about longer waits and say FP+ caused it. When really, the longer waits may be caused by other things, if they're really longer at all... (see math above, they're only actually longer for repeat riders because they have to wait for ppl that want to ride once and who pulled a FP).

So yes, those ppl who want to ride POTC, have to wait for those who chose to prioritize it and make it an FP+ of theirs. But those same ppl who are picking POTC aren't picking "more valuable" rides so everyone should really be happy they're doing this, no?

 

[NavyDad]

Not sure exactly yet what this will mean for our trip in June. We are taking a wait-and-see attitude right now, but I may have lost my battle for getting APs this year with all of this. DH says he will not upgrade to APs just to sit in line longer.

I do think this is very interesting data and I'm sure the Disney execs are analyzing this data on their end too - or I would certainly hope so. I think in theory FP+ looks great on paper, but something doesn't look like it's working in the implementation.

Honestly - it looks to me like the system is working exactly like Disney planned it with the exception of bugs and glitches that still need to be ironed out.

This system was never intended to make the experience better for the less than 1% of guests who like us live on the DIS boards and had the old fastpass system down to a science.

The system was designed for the 1st time visitors or once in a decade visitors. Many of these people in the past did little to no research and many did not have a clue what fastpass was or how to use it.

Also, maybe I am wrong but I don't believe data showing that standby lines are longer actually means more people are spending more time in lines. It sounds like more total people are using fastpass over all so total man-hours spent in line per day could actually be significantly lower.

From Disney's perspective - if a small percentage of us "Comandos" are spending more time in lines but a larger percentage of people are using Fastpass and getting through the line quicker (even if this has the consequence of increasing stby times of some rides), then the system is working brilliantly for them.

Also, with most of the headliners seeing no increase or even decrease in wait times combined with increased wait times at secondary rides - this may mean crowds are being spread out more efficiently around the park which was probably another of their goals.