To Buy 2042 or not to buy 2042

[Cfabar1]

Hello,

I am trying to determine the best way to calculate the “lost opportunity’ of the years after 2042 when determining the appropriate price to pay on resale for the older resorts vs. buying a resort that will last longer for me.

A bit of background, we are in our early 30s, and we would love to use DVC points well into our retirement as a way to have a “home away from home” instead of owning a second home. Obviously, the 2042 points would not allow that.

But, on the other hand, if it allows us to have affordable, fun family vacations with our young children, maybe it would be worth it to enjoy the memories over the next 20 years, and then do something else later in retirement.

Some like VB have much cheaper points rates, and the costs would go away after 20 years, but then again, we are losing something by not paying in in today’s prices for those extra years (say until 2064, 2068, etc.)

Does anyone have any suggestions about how to think about this To reflect the opportunity cost?

 

[Sparky984]

VB has high maintenance fees.

If you’re buying resale just buy where you want to stay. You’re already saving a bundle. If you want the length, look at active sales. Depending on the number of points, you might get a good deal…plus blue card benefits.

We bought a small resale contract at a 2042 at BRV - our favorite, especially at Christmas! That expires around the time the kids are less likely to be taking trips with us. We then bought direct at RIV, in two contracts - one for blue card minimum and the rest on a second contract.

This lets us sunset one option when the kids are grown and lets us stay where we love for now. We also love Riviera! But if we find we aren’t going as much without the kids, we can pare down, without selling it all. Or, we can keep it all til we expire.

Regarding opportunity cost, we just put it into a cost per point per year remaining. That was a fair way to us to level the field across varying end dates and costs. What is the “cheapest” that way might surprise you. Maintenance fees will cost more than maybe you’re anticipating.

 

[Sandisw]

You know in 19 years the 2042 are done so no matter what you pay today, you end up with $0 resale.

If you buy a different resort that ends later and decide after 19 years, you can sell it for something greater than $0.

Or, you can keep going if you decide you still want to.

For me, it would be hard to buy a 2042 resort until it’s the one I really want to stay at a lot of the time.

If there is something else you’d prefer, then I’d buy that.

I would not buy a non WDW resort for WDW stays because then you can’t book anything until 7 months out.

And, the 11/7 month window does not have ti stay that way. They could very well change that and give a larger home resort time..

As mentioned, VB has much higher fees that eat up the savings from now.

So, buy where you want to be and if it is a 2042, then just do that!

 

[NVDISFamily]

We are a bit older than you (wife and I) and we have young kids. We just made our plunge into DVC this year.

Expire date did matter for us so we didn’t consider anything with a sooner expire date. VGC comes to it’s expire date the earliest in our portfolio. I like this as it gets us way closer to the kids being older and grandkids as a possibility before we have to make a hard call. If we still love DVC by then and can keep paying those dues into retirement then we’ll keep them or give them to the kids.

If not, we can hopefully sell our points for well more than we paid and have had 2 decades of memories.

The big wildcard is if Disney will do some type of renewal option for the 2042 resorts. All of my research leads me to believe that they won’t do that, but I’m looking forward to see what they do so I’m ready for 2060 when VGC expires.

 

[MISCdisney21]

We wanted to be able to stay at boardwalk studio so found a 50 pt contract. Our main contracts are poly and grand Floridian with longer expiration dates.

So with the 50 pt, the hope is every other year to be able to grab a week just because that’s where we want to be. Without 11 month booking not sure we’d be able to get that room we want. It’s definitely not an investment but where we want to stay.

My advice would be pick a different spot for your big contract. Then either small contract or rent if there is a 2042 resort you love.

 

[Ruttangel]

As mentioned VB dues will end up eating into your initial purchase savings so after about 5 years you are paying more than if you had got something else. By the end of 20 years you may have been better off just renting. I would recommend doing lots of research, loads of threads about economical purchases on here.

 

[buzzrelly]

Hello,

I am trying to determine the best way to calculate the “lost opportunity’ of the years after 2042 when determining the appropriate price to pay on resale for the older resorts vs. buying a resort that will last longer for me.

A bit of background, we are in our early 30s, and we would love to use DVC points well into our retirement as a way to have a “home away from home” instead of owning a second home. Obviously, the 2042 points would not allow that.

But, on the other hand, if it allows us to have affordable, fun family vacations with our young children, maybe it would be worth it to enjoy the memories over the next 20 years, and then do something else later in retirement.

Some like VB have much cheaper points rates, and the costs would go away after 20 years, but then again, we are losing something by not paying in in today’s prices for those extra years (say until 2064, 2068, etc.)

Does anyone have any suggestions about how to think about this To reflect the opportunity cost?

You didn't say which Home Resorts you were considering, or whether you had ever stayed in a DVC resort. If the answer to that question is no, then I'd start there.

We just recently bought BCV (with a 2042 expiration) because we LOVE it there. We also own at BLT so we will still have points beyond 2042.

I'd first consider where you LOVE to stay and then decide which resort and whether it's worth it from there.

 

[RoseGold]

If your goal is affordable, Disney in general is probably not the right pick.

If your goal is "affordable" within Disney, you can make memories at the Dolphin or Art of Animation, which will be cheaper. Disney will never be a cheap choice, and DVC is often not the cheapest choice.

If your goal is retirement and going to Disney forever, then I would wait and buy your dream resort direct. Maybe that's RIV right now. Maybe that's Poly dropping 2024. Maybe that's some future resort ten years down the road. I would not settle if you are not in love with the current offerings if this is really a retirement home dream. I would be in no rush. DVC is going nowhere, and there will be another project in a couple years.

 

[Jlo85]

People make a big deal about the Vero Beach dues, but the reality is that it’s only like $4 more a point in dues than other resorts. Meanwhile, VB is like $75/point cheaper than a lot of other resorts. It’s going to take quite a few years to make up that $75, not even including interest.

I think VB is a decent SAP contract. Though, you should really only get any contract if you want to stay at that resort (e.g. VB) too.

 

[RoseGold]

VB in particular is a bad pick because of those dues. Math:

https://www.disboards.com/threads/resale-5-year-look-back.3897384/

More math:
https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/best-economical-dvc-resorts-to-purchase-spring-2022/

I agree that some of the middle ground resorts like AKL and SSR are more desirable than their rank on these charts because of cheaper buy-in and reasonable dues. That's part of why they've gotten so expensive lately.

 

[Jlo85]

VB in particular is a bad pick because of those dues. Math:

https://www.disboards.com/threads/resale-5-year-look-back.3897384/

More math:
https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/best-economical-dvc-resorts-to-purchase-spring-2022/

I agree that some of the middle ground resorts like AKL and SSR are more desirable than their rank on these charts because of cheaper buy-in and reasonable dues. That's part of why they've gotten so expensive lately.

My problem with that math is they don’t contemplate the time value of money. Assuming 6% market return on the $75/point savings ($4.50/point) means I’m actually probably more than making up for the more expensive VB dues ($4/point). Aulani, HH, and VB are all good SAPs assuming you want to visit those places sometimes.

Saratoga Springs is the best WDW SAPs (and AKV to a lesser extent), but you’re dealing with ROFR.

 

[RoseGold]

My problem with that math is they don’t contemplate the time value of money. Assuming 6% market return on the $75/point savings ($4.50/point) means I’m actually probably more than making up for the more expensive VB dues ($4/point). Aulani, HH, and VB are all good SAPs assuming you want to visit those places sometimes.

Sure. For the 10 year math above that would work, and VB still would be a bad pick.

Do it for five years, the 6% made no sense at all and VB was an even worse pick.

I agree with your point in general for a resort like SSR. But VB dues are just too crazy, and DVC is mostly dues.

 

[Bearval]

Sure. For the 10 year math above that would work, and VB still would be a bad pick.

Do it for five years, the 6% made no sense at all and VB was an even worse pick.

I agree with your point in general for a resort like SSR. But VB dues are just too crazy, and DVC is mostly dues.

Just wait and see how much higher VB dues will be for hurricane insurance next year anything on the Florida coasts will see a big increase for insurance premiums.

 

[Sandisw]

My problem with that math is they don’t contemplate the time value of money. Assuming 6% market return on the $75/point savings ($4.50/point) means I’m actually probably more than making up for the more expensive VB dues ($4/point). Aulani, HH, and VB are all good SAPs assuming you want to visit those places sometimes.

Saratoga Springs is the best WDW SAPs (and AKV to a lesser extent), but you’re dealing with ROFR.

Also need to consider with VB, besides being locked out of WDW until 7 months, is the special assessment that could happen if a hurricane or other weather event hits..

And, depending on severity or timing, they could decide, especially with 19 years left, not to rebuild.

With SSR passing at lower levels these days, which could mean ROFR is subsiding, the difference may be worth it because in 2042, if you are done, SSR would still be worth more than VB,

And, you are on property and don’t have to worry about potential changes they might do as the 2042 as it gets closer to expiration

 

[Sparky984]

My problem with that math is they don’t contemplate the time value of money. Assuming 6% market return on the $75/point savings ($4.50/point) means I’m actually probably more than making up for the more expensive VB dues ($4/point). Aulani, HH, and VB are all good SAPs assuming you want to visit those places sometimes.

Saratoga Springs is the best WDW SAPs (and AKV to a lesser extent), but you’re dealing with ROFR.

Valid points, but does anyone ever roll the savings from VB into the market? What about people who did so and started last year? What about someone bought BWV 20 years ago? Would they get 6%/yr back on a sale of their BWV points if they sold today? They also got 20 years of vacations.

 

[Stargazer65]

Imagine if you had to prepay your dues for the life of the contract up front. I wonder how many people would buy into DVC? A 200 point, 50 year contract at Riviera for the mere price of $120,000 up front, or $62,000 up front for 20 years at Vero Beach. Of course that would get you out of the yearly increases, which is nice, but still that's a lot of money to cough up.

 

[BeachClub2014]

We all dance around different mathematical formulas and convoluted calculations to convince ourselves that owning DVC makes sense and is a good value for our individual families or that it doesn't. Oddly enough, both can be true. It all depends on your perspective.

If you start with the perspective that DVC is not an investment vehicle intended to generate stable, predictable ROIs, then, trying to parse which purchase option might "save" you a few dollars over time or which resort might "outperform" another on the resale market isn't all that important.

You should decide where you want to stay while at WDW. If staying at a particular DVC resort is the priority, then buy at that resort as it will result in the greatest likelihood of success. If you don't care which DVC resort you stay in, then buy the cheapest points available and roll the dice on your accommodations. If you don't care about staying primarily at a DVC resort while at WDW, then don't buy DVC at all as there are far cheaper options.

 

[bobbiwoz]

Imagine if you had to prepay your dues for the life of the contract up front. I wonder how many people would buy into DVC? A 200 point, 50 year contract at Riviera for the mere price of $120,000 up front, or $62,000 up front for 20 years at Vero Beach. Of course that would get you out of the yearly increases, which is nice, but still that's a lot of money to cough up.

These thoughts were what kept us out of DVC when we first looked at it, 1996.

 

[SLThomas318]

We all dance around different mathematical formulas and convoluted calculations to convince ourselves that owning DVC makes sense and is a good value for our individual families or that it doesn't. Oddly enough, both can be true. It all depends on your perspective.

If you start with the perspective that DVC is not an investment vehicle intended to generate stable, predictable ROIs, then, trying to parse which purchase option might "save" you a few dollars over time or which resort might "outperform" another on the resale market isn't all that important.

You should decide where you want to stay while at WDW. If staying at a particular DVC resort is the priority, then buy at that resort as it will result in the greatest likelihood of success. If you don't care which DVC resort you stay in, then buy the cheapest points available and roll the dice on your accommodations. If you don't care about staying primarily at a DVC resort while at WDW, then don't buy DVC at all as there are far cheaper options.

It's called "Disney Math" in our house lol!

 

[Brian Noble]

we are in our early 30s,

Twenty years is a long time. I've rarely been able to predict much past three years out in terms of specific vacation patterns. On the other hand, I'm in my mid-50s now, the kids are all in graduate school, and that opens up a new horizon for us to vacation.