To Buy 2042 or not to buy 2042

[Kumanate]

Yes, we are strongly leaning towards a 2042 resort contract. We are touring some of the newer resorts to decide. We like the fact that it will go away in our 50s, and then allow us to have new adventures. Maybe after we see riviera in person, we may go in a different direction. We are considering OKW, but also HH, which could be a terrific place to spend many a summer, and enjoy the restaurants and the beach.

Hilton Head has the highest dues and prob only go higher at this point, just something to keep in mind.

 

[Cfabar1]

Yes, I get that about the dues. But, we are hoping to have a week there in the summer, and I understand 7 month availability for summer months is rather limited.

 

[Kumanate]

Yes, I get that about the dues. But, we are hoping to have a week there in the summer, and I understand 7 month availability for summer months is rather limited.

Fair enough!

 

[kdm31091]

19 years is a long time. Mathematically, of course the newer resorts are a better deal. However, you should buy where you want to stay. Outside of SSR, OKW and AKL, it’s not always easy to get into your chosen resort inside of 7 months. If you really love a 2042 and it will bring you 19 years of happiness go for it. We don’t know what will happen in 2042. It seems unlikely the resorts will just disappear. Perhaps current owners will get a discount on the new contract if that’s the way it ends up going. No guarantee of course but I think there’s a chance you will have it past 2042 if you want (with an additional fee of course). It seems unlikely to me that Disney will just demolish all of the resorts at that time or convert them to all cash. I feel like new contracts will happen, but current owners maybe will get a discount or advantage. Who knows. Either way it’s a long time away. For all we know Florida will be underwater in 2042 and this will be a moot point. So I’d buy what I wanted.

 

[Straulin]

To the original calculation question: Decide a typical stay based upon the time of year, length of stay, and room type. Using that as a base for your average stay, determine how often you want to stay to determine the number of points you need per year for the stays at your home resort.

Then from there take the number of points per year x price per point. This will give you the rough total you will need to spend. Then compare that to the same sort of calculation at the other resort you are considering. While the 2042 resorts are not as long, the points per stay are generally much lower than newer resorts.

Next divide the two totals by the years left (edit - or the number of trips if less or more than annually) on the contracts to determine your price per stay for each resort.

I prefer the price per stay calculation to the price per point over the life of the contract calculation. I expect to stay at my home resort 80% of the time so it is a more useful calc to me.


We bought BCV 2042 resort earlier this year. Regardless of the math, we wanted to walk to Epcot. We considered some MK resorts for a while but Epcot is our favorite and will be more so as the kids grow up. So for us it was just deciding between BWV and BCV. We got a good deal on our 360 point contract at BCV so it was the same price as BWV. We decided if we stay at BCV we can still walk over to the boardwalk but the other way around we couldn’t do Stormalong Bay. So went with BCV.

 

[E2ME2]

To the original calculation question: Decide a typical stay based upon the time of year, length of stay, and room type. Using that as a base for your average stay, determine how often you want to stay to determine the number of points you need per year for the stays at your home resort.

Then from there take the number of points per year x price per point. This will give you the rough total you will need to spend. Then compare that to the same sort of calculation at the other resort you are considering. While the 2042 resorts are not as long, the points per stay are generally much lower than newer resorts.

Next divide the two totals by the years left (edit - or the number of trips if less or more than annually) on the contracts to determine your price per stay for each resort.

I prefer the price per stay calculation to the price per point over the life of the contract calculation. I expect to stay at my home resort 80% of the time so it is a more useful calc to me.


We bought BCV 2042 resort earlier this year. Regardless of the math, we wanted to walk to Epcot. We considered some MK resorts for a while but Epcot is our favorite and will be more so as the kids grow up. So for us it was just deciding between BWV and BCV. We got a good deal on our 360 point contract at BCV so it was the same price as BWV. We decided if we stay at BCV we can still walk over to the boardwalk but the other way around we couldn’t do Stormalong Bay. So went with BCV.

I agree with your BCV strategy, and am still looking to add on there, but haven't found the right resale contract yet.

 

[matt and beth]

If it makes you feel any better we sold our first two contracts for more than what we paid for them. We ended up being out only our maintenance fees to stay at some pretty KA hotels and rooms for a ton less

 

[RichVIII]

I have debated the 2042s because often can’t get a ressie or need to book something larger at twice the points to stay there.

 

[bakerr6]

We are in the same situation as you OP (mid 30s, 2 boys that are 5 and 1). We chose a contract at ssr and pbv, with the plans to buy into poly tower in the future. Our thoughts were that you can always rent/sell the contract in the future and we didn't want a 2042 due to us retiring the year of expiration.

One benefit that we have is our spring break does not coincide with most others so our week of Disney is typically available at the 7 month mark for most resorts. We still plan on taking a small trip in October which is why we picked up the poly contract. I would research availability at 7 months for the resorts you would like to stay and see what options you have

 

[Unclelude]

We heavily weighted value ( lower initial in outlay, lower dues ) and risk ( what if we want out ).

While 2042s might have some value, risk was too high for us.

If in my 30s I think it would be even a tougher sell for 2042s especially if I thought I was going to go the distance...

Direct vs Resale is an interesting thing right now... With 3 active sales and 2 more coming in not too distant future... might be some tempting 'sales' ... remember Aulani for $13x direct last year around black Friday?

If you did buy resale, say BLT ... in 2042 odds are you will be locked out of the 'new' 2042 resorts cuz of resale restrictions. ( yes all speculation, but what isn't... I think it's more likely than not current resale won't have access to new 2042... actually, I think they will eventually try to upcharge resale some how ... and I think 'new' 2042 point charts have a good chance of large scale inflation... Like instead of 5 million points at BWV there are now 500 million... But hey, you waning BLT contracts can pay a 'nominal' fee to 100x your points when booking into the new Boardwalk!... Sorry, getting into the weeds)

Yeah, so since there's no crystal ball, we wanted less exit risk... Good Luck!

Have fun!

 

[CaptainAmerica]

My problem with that math is they don’t contemplate the time value of money. Assuming 6% market return on the $75/point savings ($4.50/point) means I’m actually probably more than making up for the more expensive VB dues ($4/point). Aulani, HH, and VB are all good SAPs assuming you want to visit those places sometimes.

Saratoga Springs is the best WDW SAPs (and AKV to a lesser extent), but you’re dealing with ROFR.

You're 100% right.

NOBODY who talks DVC resale value ever discounts future cash flows. They also don't properly inflate maintenance fees or rack rates to accurately calculate savings.

They also use a lot of averages, ignore what ROFR does to price floors, and assume every buyer is a crappy negotiator.

 

[njcoach24]

Buy 2042 at "discount" vs more money to have more time?

For example 30 points at BWV will cost $3300 ($110 a point for example) vs 30 points at VGF for $5,400 ($180 a point for example).

Thoughts???

 

[Sandisw]

Buy 2042 at "discount" vs more money to have more time?

For example 30 points at BWV will cost $3300 ($110 a point for example) vs 30 points at VGF for $5,400 ($180 a point for example).

Thoughts???

VGF unless you really want to be at BWV and will be disappointed if you can’t stay there.

 

[havoc315]

Buy 2042 at "discount" vs more money to have more time?

For example 30 points at BWV will cost $3300 ($110 a point for example) vs 30 points at VGF for $5,400 ($180 a point for example).

Thoughts???

The difference isn't that big. For a small contract like that at BWV, it's more like $150-$170 per point.
At GFV, about $180 per point.

So 30 points: About $4800 at BWV vs $5400 at VGF.
But now, look at it as cost per point per year
19 years left at BWV -- $8.42 per point, per year at BWV
41 years left at GFV -- $4.39 per point per year at VGF.

If you add in dues, the difference is even more stark. Basically, BWV is costing you twice as much as VGF.

As to the argument --what if you only want to keep DVC for 19 years. In that case, you could re-sell the VGF in 2042, and get a bunch of money back (possibly more than you paid in the first place).

 

[njcoach24]

The difference isn't that big. For a small contract like that at BWV, it's more like $150-$170 per point.
At GFV, about $180 per point.

So 30 points: About $4800 at BWV vs $5400 at VGF.
But now, look at it as cost per point per year
19 years left at BWV -- $8.42 per point, per year at BWV
41 years left at GFV -- $4.39 per point per year at VGF.

If you add in dues, the difference is even more stark. Basically, BWV is costing you twice as much as VGF.

As to the argument --what if you only want to keep DVC for 19 years. In that case, you could re-sell the VGF in 2042, and get a bunch of money back (possibly more than you paid in the first place).

I completely agree. But what if you could get boardwalk at 110 a point?

I want VGF anyway but just want to consider the other option.

 

[havoc315]

I completely agree. But what if you could get boardwalk at 110 a point?

I want VGF anyway but just want to consider the other option.

You probably can't. It would be ROFRed.
But even if you could, VGF still comes out must cheaper in the long run. You'd have to get BWV for under $90 a point to even it out.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

You probably can't. It would be ROFRed.

Eh, the latest ROFR thread and lack of activity makes me believe that a $110 or potentially even lower BWV could get through. At a certain point Disney is going to have trouble selling 2042 resorts at full retail price given how soon they are expiring. They may not want the points.

 

[njcoach24]

Eh, the latest ROFR thread and lack of activity makes me believe that a $110 or potentially even lower BWV could get through. At a certain point Disney is going to have trouble selling 2042 resorts at full retail price given how soon they are expiring. They may not want the points.

I think BWV can be had at 100-110 a point soon. I should have bought AK at the start of COVID…that was around $80 pp…I ended up with POLY at $130….but want to add on another 30 points and with resale seeming to dip again with current economic conditions might be a good time.

 

[Matty B13]

Also remember, points go a lot further at BWV than at VGF.

 

[havoc315]

Also remember, points go a lot further at BWV than at VGF.

Partially true, partially a fallacy.
It's like saying, "dollars go a lot further at Motel 6 compared to Grand Floridian!"

It's not exactly that points go further, it's just that the resort is cheaper. For $50, you can get 1 real steak at a steakhouse, or you can get 25 hamburgers at McDonalds. So does $50 go further at McDonalds than at a steakhouse?

Add in the fact that, you can use your points across resorts at 7 months. So if you want your GFV points to "go as far" as BWV points, you can just use them at BWV, subject to 7 month availability.