Some FP+ Info

[dadddio]

This is one of the pieces I'm really curious to watch. If you can only get 3 or 4 FPs, and only 1 or 2 of those are for headliners, then lots of folks are going to have to stand in standby lines. I think there are just too mnay unknowns to predict how this will pan out. But the pile of threads recently from folks frustrated by standby waits certainly has my attention. Many of them report entering the SB line when it was very short, but standing for extended periods of time watching dozens of FP folks feeding in while they wait. For them it doesn't matter that there weren't many other folks in the standby line. For them, it was a very negative experience.

Two things will turn around that experience. 1) accurate wait times, 2) the ability to get a FP.

 

[dadddio]

If everyone that wanted to ride had a FP then isn't that about the same as making the FP line the new SB line? How can you move most everyone out of the SB line to the FP line and not expect the FP line waits to go up greatly?

As long as the number of FPs are less than the ride's capacity for a specific time period, then the FP wait time will be short. SB waits will vary based on how the FP guests 'clump' during their return window.

 

[dadddio]

It would impact park hopping because under current system, you can do regular fastpass at two different parks in one day, but fastpass plus only allows to pre-reserve at one park per day, and the current proposed terms and conditions (which may change because no actual system in place yet) clearly states that cannot do both fastpass plus and regular fastpass in same visit. So it looks like if you do fastpass plus and do two parks in same day, one will be entirely standby lines.

The T&C states that you will not be able to use both FP+ and the 'standard' FP system. WHat is not clear is what it means by the 'standard' system. As I tried to discuss in an earlier post, that could mean the current paper FP system, or getting FPs same-day regardless of whether it is using the current paper-cased system or the to-be-released virtual system.

 

[DAZY3BYZ]

Latest rumors indicate that EMH may be gutted starting this September, which would explain why the park hours for Sept. have not been released yet. I think this would be just another result of FP+.

So if EMH is indeed going to become extinct , what will they do to entice people to stay onsite? They need to fill those resorts and right now EMH is the big advantage they advertise to staying onsite.

 

[danceintherain]

The one, and in my opinion, most important variable you are not calcualting is how many folks do no planning ahead of time. There are so many folks who dont even know what a FP is and will not bother with it. These are the folks who are in line complaining about how few rides they were able to ride because of crowds. You are assuming all WDW guests are like us- planners. How often have we been in a park and see those folks go through the turnstiles with map in hand who say "OK, what are we going to do first?" There are more of them there there are of us. So for the planners, I see this as a good thing. As long as we can book our 4 FPs prior to going and still be able to get a few FPs in the park, my planning will be easier.

One thing I think will help us is the newbies who reserve second tier rides during primary hours. That will loosen up the headliners during peak times.

I'll address the bolded in a moment but focus on the rest of the post first. While I understand what you're saying (and it's very true), if Disney is going to offer FP+ to every park guest (and all indications suggest that will be the case), they need to assume every guest will use it even though only a fraction of these guests will.

The amount of guests who use standard FP vary from day-to-day thus leading us to believe that the same will be true with FP+ so it would be impossible for Disney to predict just how many guests will take advantage of FP+, and it seems like the last thing Disney wants with this system is a shortage of FP+s. In the early stages of this program, they are going to have to assume that every park guest will use all four FP+s even though that will, most likely, not be the case. Hope you see what I'm trying to say.

I guess it really just depends on how much research Disney has put into FP in a given day. They very well could have data that indicates the number of fastpasses a given park admission redeems per day. Maybe that's not applicable to every single other day of the year, but it may be for the same day the following year.

I suppose it's possible that the new system could encourage guests who have never thought about planning for Disney to do so. However, unless they're willing to put a little extra time in, I doubt they'll do the best job at booking said FPs.

As per capacity...it's been indicated/rumored that they're going to add viewing locations for parades and fireworks to the pool, which should bump up the numbers for each park. Yeah, those of us around here will know not to book those....but first time guests could think that's the best possible thing for them to do. I'm constantly astounded by the number of people who are obsessed with booking the Dessert Party at the Magic Kingdom, when pretty much all the reviews have said that viewing space at the railing is limited.

Finally, right now FP+ and regular FP ARE operating alongside one another. I think it will be impossible to tell how FP+ will affect daily touring until it's operating alone. Maybe they're trying to figure out the absolute maximum they'll be able to deal with? Also, most of the people who are trying FP+ now are probably going to be the people who knew something about the system beforehand, so maybe there are fewer no shows than Disney expected? They can also get FPs through both systems, so it's entirely possible that they have double of what they'd end up with while either system was operating alone.

I guess we'll see what happens in the next few weeks.... I do hope I can have reasonable expectations in time for my trip in April.

ETA: There also may be a power of suggestion element. When booking FPs 30 days out, if a certain park already has a large percentage of FPs booked, the computer could suggest that you go to a different park that has less FPs booked for that day. It would certainly be more effective than going to one park first and "leaving if it felt crowded." You would know in advance that FP was already close to capacity, and thus the park was likely to be more crowded with planners.

 

[golf4miami]

As long as the number of FPs are less than the ride's capacity for a specific time period, then the FP wait time will be short. SB waits will vary based on how the FP guests 'clump' during their return window.

So false.

If the FP distribution is say 1000 and the ride has a capacity of 2000 then the FP wait time would not be 'short'. At best you could have a walk on, at worst you could have 30-45min wait depending on 'clumping' as you call it. But considering the majority of FP users show up as their ticket becomes active I would say you're more likely to notice the higher range of wait times and on average somewhere around a 15-20min wait just for the FP line. (This is all assuming a 50/50 allowance of letting FP and SB waiters on the ride. If they allow more FPers on then obviously the waits would be shorter in the FP line, but that would extend the SB wait time by a wide margin.

 

[dadddio]

It has been my understanding that Disney has yet to state that FP+'s will be available the day of. For certain for those that have not made any in advance but I haven't seen where it has been stated that if you make 4 or 3 in advance that you would be allowed to make more once you are in the park. It would be great if this is what comes to pass but I have not seen Disney state this. So as you like to point out that Disney has not stated that we won't be able to get extra FP+'s the day of, neither have they stated that we WILL be able to get extra FP+'s the day of.

True.

As I discussed n one of the other threads on this topic, whether or not the company speaking to this issue should cause me stress is dependant on how I see FP+. Some see it as the company doing away with FPs and replacing them with something called FP+ which will allow a guest to preschedule some amount of FPs. Others see it as the company enhancing FPs by making them virtual and allowing some to be prescheduled.

Those that see FP+ as a replacement are stressed that no word has been given regarding same-day FPs. Those that see FP+ as an enhancement are not surprised that the company didn't discuss things that don't change while making the initial statement.

 

[dadddio]

We currently can't FP things like HM and Pirates. So, if we did that, the others would not ride with us. Is it the common consensus that we will not need to FP them? And they can be visited stand by?

Until the new program is implemented, we have no clue how the lines and our touring plans will be affected.

 

[ballarinamom]

Havent people been testing it already? Curious on their details at to how many? Were they able to add traditional FPs during the day? I would think the tester version will be the first to roll out and then it will be tweaked as time goes by. Any info on the testing??

 

[dadddio]

If the FP distribution is say 1000 and the ride has a capacity of 2000 then the FP wait time would not be 'short'. At best you could have a walk on, at worst you could have 30-45min wait depending on 'clumping' as you call it. But considering the majority of FP users show up as their ticket becomes active I would say you're more likely to notice the higher range of wait times and on average somewhere around a 15-20min wait just for the FP line. (This is all assuming a 50/50 allowance of letting FP and SB waiters on the ride. If they allow more FPers on then obviously the waits would be shorter in the FP line, but that would extend the SB wait time by a wide margin.

I think that we are on the same page. They can issue 'enough' FPs if 1) they are one-to-a-customer for each ride and 2) All that has to be done is to change people's mindset regarding lines. The SB line would no longer be the 'regular' line. The FP line would become the 'regular' line and the SB line would truly be 'stand by'.

 

[parkhopping]

Now, you have only 25% of hourly riders coming from the standby queue. So, while Disney could use FP and FP+ together, standby lines would skyrocket.

It's interesting that you picked Space for your example, because that is EXACTLY what someone on the boards was reporting about a week ago. They were sending FPs onto three of the four cars, therefore running standby at only 25% capacity. I was there on Friday and tried to observe how it was being run. While I can't say with certainty that's what was happening, I can say that the entire left hand side (2 of the cars) were being used exclusively for FPs. So that's at least 50% capacity for each line.

So far, based on the speculation/info we have now, it sounds like FP+ will not be too terrible for those who plan their vacations in advance. It may or may not be as good as the current system, but will be workable. My major concern is, and has always been, the impact on locals like me.

Since becoming a passholder, I have taken three trips that were planned months in advance. But most of the time, I decide about a week out that I'm going to go. Sometimes more spontaneously than that. There's been times when I didn't decide which park to go to until I was in the car on the way there. How on earth will this system benefit locals like me in the least? I foresee a situation in which getting a FP+ for an E ticket attraction 2 hours after park opening the day of will be as difficult as getting a reservation at BOG or CRT. Right now, if I get to Epcot at 11 am, I can still pull a FP for TT. I don't see that being a possibility with FP+. So locals like me will be forced into SB lines more often than not.

If that is what happens, I will have to reconsider renewing my pass. It may be better for me to simply choose 3-4 times to visit per year, purchase regular tickets for those trips, and reserve FP+ in advance.

 

[dadddio]

Havent people been testing it already? Curious on their details at to how many? Were they able to add traditional FPs during the day? I would think the tester version will be the first to roll out and then it will be tweaked as time goes by. Any info on the testing??

They were able to add traditional FPs. Some believe that this caused the tests to be flawed. However, it could have added accuracy, if they were planning on allowing same-day virtual FPs when FP+ went live.

 

[golf4miami]

I think that we are on the same page. They can issue 'enough' FPs if 1) they are one-to-a-customer for each ride and 2) All that has to be done is to change people's mindset regarding lines. The SB line would no longer be the 'regular' line. The FP line would become the 'regular' line and the SB line would truly be 'stand by'.

You really don't see the problem with this? There would be no way for a normal family to be able to complete all of their rides in a day this way. It would kill the ability to plan based on the stand-by wait time. This would mean you're only guaranteed 4 rides with a 'normal' wait each day you're in the parks.

Not to mention you would no longer have the ability to say "We have ADR's at 5:30p and it's 5p now. So, since the standby for Jungle Cruise is 20 min we can make it." Now you'll look at your watch and say, "Oh geez, we only have 30min before our reservation, there is no way we can get a ride in between now and dinner.

 

[mom2rtk]

You really don't see the problem with this? There would be no way for a normal family to be able to complete all of their rides in a day this way. It would kill the ability to plan based on the stand-by wait time. This would mean you're only guaranteed 4 rides with a 'normal' wait each day you're in the parks.

Not to mention you would no longer have the ability to say "We have ADR's at 5:30p and it's 5p now. So, since the standby for Jungle Cruise is 20 min we can make it." Now you'll look at your watch and say, "Oh geez, we only have 30min before our reservation, there is no way we can get a ride in between now and dinner.

I agree. What Daddio described would definitely be a wratcheting down of expectations, a sort of rationing of ride slots. And it would be a deal breaker for us. I hope that's not the case.

 

[ktrask]

I'd be interested to know when we will be able to start reserving FP+ times. The claim is that you can do it 60 days in advance, so will reservations be allowed 60 days before launch?

 

[Robo]

I'd be interested to know when we will be able to start reserving FP+ times. The claim is that you can do it 60 days in advance, so will reservations be allowed 60 days before launch?

Not likely.

But, stay tuned.

 

[gwmort]

It's time for some more math! Let's explore the possibility of running standard FP and FP+ at the same time. For now, let's just look at one extremely popular attraction; we'll use Space Mountain. These calculations are based on those found in my previous post.

I don't know the specific numbers, but I've heard estimates of Space Mountain's hourly capacity being somewhere near 2,000 riders. Now, we'll again assume Disney is using twelve slots, so well divide 2,000 by 12 to get 165 (rounded down from 166.666 because you can't go above capacity), so that means that in every slot you can only have a total of 165 potential riders. Now, assuming every FP+ user who has a FP+ within that particular slot returns around the same time, you have 100 people now able to ride the attraction in the FP+ queue and only 65 people able to ride in the standby queue. To decrease FP+ wait times, many more FP+s holders will be let on to the attraction then standbyers.

To further put that into perspective, each hour 1,200 FP+ users will be able to ride while only 800 standby guests will be able to ride. Imagine WDW also distributes 300 standard FPs each hour (so 25 FPs per slot). Now, you have only 25% of hourly riders coming from the standby queue.

So, while Disney could use FP and FP+ together, standby lines would skyrocket. That being said, we don't know if there will be a decrease (or increase?) in guests using the standby queue after FP+ is implemented.

Logic Flaw:

The two systems are exclusive, your figure of 100 fp+ per segment was based on total park capacity (everyone using fp+), if everyone was using fp+ there would be zero people in the parks eligible to pull your hypothetical fp-'s. Therefore you can reduce the number of available fp+'s based on the number of guests you anticipate will be not using the system.

Prior to that day's operation they'll know how many slots have been prebooked, they will know their projection of how many they think will not be using the system and can dynamically on the fly make unbooked fp+'s available to to either system until the old system completely fades out).

I think this is going to be great!

 

[dadddio]

You really don't see the problem with this? There would be no way for a normal family to be able to complete all of their rides in a day this way.

If you were able to obtain FPs for the rides that you were interested in riding, how would you be unable to ride those rides?

It would kill the ability to plan based on the stand-by wait time.

Why? In my hypothetical scenario, pretty much the only people in theSB line would be those that already have a FP for that ride, but wish to ride it multiple times.

This would mean you're only guaranteed 4 rides with a 'normal' wait each day you're in the parks.

This statement seems to conflict with my hypothetical scenario and thethread's premise.

Not to mention you would no longer have the ability to say "We have ADR's at 5:30p and it's 5p now. So, since the standby for Jungle Cruise is 20 min we can make it." Now you'll look at your watch and say, "Oh geez, we only have 30min before our reservation, there is no way we can get a ride in between now and dinner.

I'm missing your point. If the posted wait time for a ride allows you to make your ADR, then you should be able to make your ADR. That's the same as it is currently.

 

[golf4miami]

If you were able to obtain FPs for the rides that you were interested in riding, how would you be unable to ride those rides?

The point is you CANNOT with the current proposed FP+ system obtain FPs for all of the rides you're going to want to ride. There is now way that many FPs would ever be available. Not to mention you're only allowed to schedule 4 per day.

Why? In my hypothetical scenario, pretty much the only people in theSB line would be those that already have a FP for that ride, but wish to ride it multiple times. This statement seems to conflict with my hypothetical scenario and thethread's premise.

Your scenario is flawed. Please see my above response.

I'm missing your point. If the posted wait time for a ride allows you to make your ADR, then you should be able to make your ADR. That's the same as it is currently.

The point is that you never know how many FP+ users would show up at any given time. Therefore any posted SB wait time would have to be taken with a grain of salt because as you put it, they are not guaranteed a ride since they didn't have a FP for it. So, a 20 min posted wait could be a 10 min wait if no FP users show up (Highly unlikely) or it could be 30, 40, or even 50 min if you get a sudden influx of FP users. Just look at what has happened to Test Track and of the DIS board users who have come back complaining of their 20 min posted wait time becoming 120. So no, you can't plan for it.

 

[andyman8]

Logic Flaw:

The two systems are exclusive, your figure of 100 fp+ per segment was based on total park capacity (everyone using fp+), if everyone was using fp+ there would be zero people in the parks eligible to pull your hypothetical fp-'s. Therefore you can reduce the number of available fp+'s based on the number of guests you anticipate will be not using the system.

Prior to that day's operation they'll know how many slots have been prebooked, they will know their projection of how many they think will not be using the system and can dynamically on the fly make unbooked fp+'s available to to either system until the old system completely fades out).

I think this is going to be great!

People who choose to FP+s for other attractions (so, not Space Mt.) would have to wait in the standby line for Space Mountain if FP and FP+ were mutually exclusive.

The scenario where WDW is also distributing FPs assumes that both systems can be used together. According to Disney's T&C, guests would need to have non-RFID tickets to have access to standard FP but in the near future, WDW will not be distributing those types of tickets.

This is not going to be great...