ROFR Thread April to June 2024 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

[CastAStone]

The delayed closing -interesting hack- might be good for seller when Disney is buying back and nobody wants to buy at the ROFR price... enough that ROFR kills demand.

... kinda like a couple of years ago there were pages of SSR contracts for sale ( always lots available I guess) ...seemed like "nobody" would bid on them because they were buying back in the $130s.

Yeah not long after resale prices got into the 130s there were over 600 SSR contracts available. It took a long time to moderate back down. Then Disney raised the price direct from $165 to $180 to $205 in like a year and direct sales just ceased altogether. I think Disney probably still has a glut of SSR points.

 

[JoshF]

there was a stripped 1000 point contract that went for $59 recently

With that large of a contract I get it.

 

[rhiansmom]

rhiansmom---$92-$15349-160-SSR-Jun-18/23, 160/24, 160/25-Seller pays MF '24- sent 5/26

 

[Disney.dad]

FrancisK7---$90-$12272-115-AUL-Dec-102/22, 115/23, 115/24, 115/25- sent 5/24

Yeah, we offered the full 100 with seller paying 2024 maintenance fees which was less off and they turned us down. Smh, good buy

 

[AstroBlasters]

Yeah, we offered the full 100 with seller paying 2024 maintenance fees which was less off and they turned us down. Smh, good buy

I wonder if the maintenance fees being paid by the buyer at closing was required because the seller was behind on dues….

 

[BrianLo]

I don't really know where to ask this - so in the resale thread it is.

Why would a resale Aulani contract have a *small* credit for its maintenance points? No, it's not secretly subsidized, but I have like an 80-something positive balance for a 100p contract I recently closed on and just noticed the balance.

 

[BrianLo]

FrancisK7---$90-$12272-115-AUL-Dec-102/22, 115/23, 115/24, 115/25- sent 5/24

Nice, I also made an offer on that contract! It was well priced to begin with so clearly got good attention.

 

[Rolem]

rolem---$120-$19871-150-CCV@WL-Oct-0/22, 0/23, 296/24, 150/25- sent 4/24, passed 5/10

 

[FrancisK7]

Yeah, we offered the full 100 with seller paying 2024 maintenance fees which was less off and they turned us down. Smh, good buy

When the math is not mathing.... or perhaps they had gotten many lowball offers at that point and decided to get it over with and my timing was lucky.

I offered 90 expecting a counter. After renting all the loaded points, this will have been the best deal of my recent acquisition binge by far.

 

[The_MT]

Everything has a price…. Let’s say… $70pp fully loaded AUL 100pt in your UY with a 4m delayed closing?

sold! send me the contract!

 

[Disney.dad]

When the math is not mathing.... or perhaps they had gotten many lowball offers at that point and decided to get it over with and my timing was lucky.

I offered 90 expecting a counter. After renting all the loaded points, this will have been the best deal of my recent acquisition binge by far.

We bought a Dec 170 earlier this year for 90 with 340 23s, 170 24s and 170 25s with SELLER paying maintenance fees but I probably won’t ever repeat that deal again there. We bought a 350 point Oct use year Riviera for 103 with 350/350/350 23/24/25 that just got points deposited a week ago. Addonitis is a disease unfortunately when the deal is too good to pass up. Now we will probably be selling our 250 Dec Riviera at some point as we want 125-200 more Grand Flo points or possibly more Poly points instead (direct on the poly or buy and incentives good enough)

 

[JoshF]

We bought a Dec 170 earlier this year for 90 with 340 23s, 170 24s and 170 25s with SELLER paying maintenance fees but I probably won’t ever repeat that deal again there. We bought a 350 point Oct use year Riviera for 103 with 350/350/350 23/24/25 that just got points deposited a week ago. Addonitis is a disease unfortunately when the deal is too good to pass up. Now we will probably be selling our 250 Dec Riviera at some point as we want 125-200 more Grand Flo points or possibly more Poly points instead (direct on the poly or buy and incentives good enough)

You guys are making me think I overpaid and should be more patient. Probably too late to get out of a deal if the deposit was paid.

 

[AstroBlasters]

You guys are making me think I overpaid and should be more patient. Probably too late to get out of a deal if the deposit was paid.

This is crazy talk…..

 

[JoshF]

This is crazy talk…..

Aren’t we all a little crazy?

 

[Stank]

No, we’ve seen a ton of inflation in consumer prices in the past 4 years, but DVC has taken a dive. Resale got up to $200 for BLT in 2021. It’s now $110-120.

I don’t think DVC direct can press much more. My theory is while, yes, VGC was $80-90 a decade-plus ago and tripled, the dynamic isn’t the same today. Ultimately, $8-10k is the top end for a Disney vacation. You see precipitous drop off after that as the vacation enters nice used car territory.

So, hotel cash prices at Disney can’t keep pressing, and in fact they too have tanked. Contemporary about 18 months ago was $900/night. You can find it sub-$450.

The substitutions to DVC are Disney hotel rooms…and they’re in distress. I don’t see why or how people would tie up $300pp, $320, etc. in Direct with a 50% or worse haircut when they sell when you can just pay cash for Disney hotels and not have tens of thousands locked up in a timeshare.

This is why DVC could 3x from 20 years ago, and why it likely won’t the next 20. For me to be wrong, Disney hotels would have to be $1500/night, and the consumer would be willing to spend $15-20k for a Disney vacation. I don’t see that ever being sustainable or ever happening. You could have it happen going $3k to $9k. It’s another ball game once you eclipse $10k. Families just drop out entirely.

 

[Cfabar1]

No, we’ve seen a ton of inflation in consumer prices in the past 4 years, but DVC has taken a dive. Resale got up to $200 for BLT in 2021. It’s now $110-120.

I don’t think DVC direct can press much more. My theory is while, yes, VGC was $80-90 a decade-plus ago and tripled, the dynamic isn’t the same today. Ultimately, $8-10k is the top end for a Disney vacation. You see precipitous drop off after that as the vacation enters nice used car territory.

So, hotel cash prices at Disney can’t keep pressing, and in fact they too have tanked. Contemporary about 18 months ago was $900/night. You can find it sub-$450.

The substitutions to DVC are Disney hotel rooms…and they’re in distress. I don’t see why or how people would tie up $300pp in Direct with a 50% or worse haircut when they sell when you can just pay cash for Disney hotels and not have tens of thousands locked up in a timeshare.

This is why DVC could 3x from 20 years ago, and why it likely won’t the next 20. For me to be wrong, Disney hotels would have to be $1500-2000/night, and the consumer would be willing to spend $15-20k for a Disney vacation. I don’t see that ever being sustainable or ever happening. You could have it happen going $3k to $9k. It’s another ball game once you eclipse $10k. Families just drop out entirely.

I agree with the overall thrust of this... Though a couple of silver linings for DVC owners....

The types of accommodations that many DVC rooms offer are far more luxurious and spread out than your typical WDW hotel room. If it were simply to stay in studio rooms, I would never have bought DVC... for us the allure was 1 BR and 2 BR units. These still compare favorably to cash rates.

I am skeptical that DVC will be able to keep building new resorts every year or two. The past few projects have felt rushed and could hardly be described as "hits"... So, it is possible that DVC construction slows or stops, which would help increase prices with decreased units available...

Many may decry the off property DVC resorts, but Disney may have to figure out if they can expand beyond the bubble to fuel expansion.. Even VDH has not been the runaway hit that many (including myself) would have imagined it to be.

 

[TinkAgainU]

I’ve had an email today saying expect closing docs in the next 2 weeks!!! Ugh.

Yea, partly the e-notify issue (10 day wait) and partly just slowness between signing and closing. But to be fair I don’t have detailed knowledge of what steps need to taken after seller signs and whether it could be done any quicker.

That's pretty slow. Escrow "can" prepare the docs and send them out before it even clears ROFR, although it makes sense for them not to bother on resorts which are currently being ROFR'd since Escrow does not get paid for their work if Disney takes it.

Buyer or Seller can just take the documents to a Notary if the e-notaries are backed up. (Unless the Buyer is financing, just the Seller needs to get Deed/documents notarized.)

For Notary Services: if your bank, UPS Store, or office supplies store don't offer Notary, we found our AAA card in California included up to four free notarizations per day and were not busy at all.

 

[CastAStone]

No, we’ve seen a ton of inflation in consumer prices in the past 4 years, but DVC has taken a dive. Resale got up to $200 for BLT in 2021. It’s now $110-120.

I don’t think DVC direct can press much more. My theory is while, yes, VGC was $80-90 a decade-plus ago and tripled, the dynamic isn’t the same today. Ultimately, $8-10k is the top end for a Disney vacation. You see precipitous drop off after that as the vacation enters nice used car territory.

So, hotel cash prices at Disney can’t keep pressing, and in fact they too have tanked. Contemporary about 18 months ago was $900/night. You can find it sub-$450.

The substitutions to DVC are Disney hotel rooms…and they’re in distress. I don’t see why or how people would tie up $300pp, $320, etc. in Direct with a 50% or worse haircut when they sell when you can just pay cash for Disney hotels and not have tens of thousands locked up in a timeshare.

This is why DVC could 3x from 20 years ago, and why it likely won’t the next 20. For me to be wrong, Disney hotels would have to be $1500/night, and the consumer would be willing to spend $15-20k for a Disney vacation. I don’t see that ever being sustainable or ever happening. You could have it happen going $3k to $9k. It’s another ball game once you eclipse $10k. Families just drop out entirely.

Maybe.

I agree that DVC will remain roughly pegged to hotel prices and the deeper they’re discounting hotels and the less their increasing room rates the smaller the DVC increases will be.

But Disney was at one point a vacation spot for most families. It’s now a vacation spot for well to do families and yet demand has been outstripping supply since 2017ish.

Every time I price a cruise for a week on an Oasis class ship or look at renting a beach house on the Atlantic, even in NC which has historically been the cheap coastline, I look at the 5 figure price and come away thinking “for that I could just go to Disney World” and then, as often as not, we do.

 

[sparkhill]

The types of accommodations that many DVC rooms offer are far more luxurious and spread out than your typical WDW hotel room. If it were simply to stay in studio rooms, I would never have bought DVC... for us the allure was 1 BR and 2 BR units. These still compare favorably to cash rates.

This!

 

[TinkAgainU]

This!

I really love your Grand Calif signature photo. Very cool.