ROFR Thread April to June 2024 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

[VGCgroupie]

Everything Ive offered on Ive offered buyer pays MF because I thought I read Disney prefers that when looking at contracts. Is that wrong?

 

[VGCgroupie]

I don't really know where to ask this - so in the resale thread it is.

Why would a resale Aulani contract have a *small* credit for its maintenance points? No, it's not secretly subsidized, but I have like an 80-something positive balance for a 100p contract I recently closed on and just noticed the balance.

Im not an owner yet, still in closing... so I could be totally wrong but is it possible they prepaid dues? I know that some people who use gift cards for dues will pay early to avoid keeping balances on gift cards.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

No, we’ve seen a ton of inflation in consumer prices in the past 4 years, but DVC has taken a dive. Resale got up to $200 for BLT in 2021. It’s now $110-120.

I don’t think DVC direct can press much more. My theory is while, yes, VGC was $80-90 a decade-plus ago and tripled, the dynamic isn’t the same today. Ultimately, $8-10k is the top end for a Disney vacation. You see precipitous drop off after that as the vacation enters nice used car territory.

So, hotel cash prices at Disney can’t keep pressing, and in fact they too have tanked. Contemporary about 18 months ago was $900/night. You can find it sub-$450.

The substitutions to DVC are Disney hotel rooms…and they’re in distress. I don’t see why or how people would tie up $300pp, $320, etc. in Direct with a 50% or worse haircut when they sell when you can just pay cash for Disney hotels and not have tens of thousands locked up in a timeshare.

This is why DVC could 3x from 20 years ago, and why it likely won’t the next 20. For me to be wrong, Disney hotels would have to be $1500/night, and the consumer would be willing to spend $15-20k for a Disney vacation. I don’t see that ever being sustainable or ever happening. You could have it happen going $3k to $9k. It’s another ball game once you eclipse $10k. Families just drop out entirely.

Did not think this thread could get any bleaker than @AstroBlasters queuing up the ASPCA music yesterday, but I was wrong, lol.

Seriously though, I agree that I don’t think DVC resale prices are going to double or triple in the next decade (or possibly ever) unless there’s some sort of crazy inflation cycle that somehow doesn’t cause dues to spike. I worry for people who see DVC as an investment as opposed to a way to budget for future vacations in advance. In my opinion, just like other kinds of vacation real estate, DVC became a speculative bubble with pent-up demand and easy money borrowing — it’s not clear to me if that bubble has finished bursting or even over-corrected, but if it overcorrected, it wasn’t by much.

However, $8-10k is absolutely not the top end for a Disney vacation, ask anybody who’s stayed at Crescent Lake or the monorail loop with more than 4 people around the holidays for the last 3 years. . I actually think it is precisely because Disney is so expensive that DVC will struggle going forward— a lot of people bought DVC resale as a way to ensure annual trips for their families, but even if lodging costs are low, middle class families are getting priced out with cost of admission, G+ upgrade, food and beverage, etc. Disney is expanding DVC capacity (and making DVC resale less attractive) even as fewer Americans can afford Disney World vacations.

In my opinion, none of this matters as long as you buy where you want to stay and where you want to own for the long haul.

 

[Jimmy Geppetto]

You guys are making me think I overpaid and should be more patient. Probably too late to get out of a deal if the deposit was paid.

You have 10 days from when contract was signed to back out. Title company will automatically refund the deposit if you copy them on the email to broker advising you are exercising your right to rescind…. If you so choose.

 

[JoshF]

You have 10 days from when contract was signed to back out. Title company will automatically refund the deposit if you copy them on the email to broker advising you are exercising your right to rescind…. If you so choose.

I'm past the 10 days, so looks like I'll have to keep it.

 

[FrancisK7]

8-10k isn't the top end for a family vacation... not even close. My upcoming August DCL cruise on the Fantasy is literally double the price of a same length WDW vacation if you own points and DCL is constantly booked. Hotel Xcaret in Mexico is now easily 17k for a week for a family of 5. Club Med in the DR... 14K!

Park revenues are climbing every year, demand is not going away. The only other amusement park that is anywhere near the same league as WDW on our continent is Universal, and they happen to be in the same city, which adds value to a DVC ownership.

I feel very fortunate that sites like https://www.dvcrofr.com/ or dvcforless (which are new and recent) existed at a time when I was ready to invest/buy into DVC because it made my research much easier and allowed me to see the big picture.

I don't imagine there's been a better moment to invest into DVC than right now.

The 50% drop we've seen in the last two years are probably people who impulsively bought direct and financed it, and with rates being what they are now, are struggling and have no choice to sell. What other explanation have we other than ignorance for people offering to sell fully loaded contracts? Why would they not strip it, rent the point and get the maximum amount of value out before selling? I'm guessing they just don't know they can.

So we are currently profiting from high interest rates affecting financially irresponsible people who have to jettison their impulse buy, coupled with their ignorance of DVC mechanics. It's never been easier to find deals and we now have access to 8+ years of DVC data with dvcrofr.com.

The future is now!

 

[rhiansmom]

8-10k isn't the top end for a family vacation... not even close. My upcoming August DCL cruise on the Fantasy is literally double the price of a same length WDW vacation if you own points and DCL is constantly booked. Hotel Xcaret in Mexico is now easily 17k for a week for a family of 5. Club Med in the DR... 14K!


The future is now!

Our home away from home is Hotel Xcaret Arte...bought into their club as founding members and go back at least twice a year. Buying my first DVC contract this month and trying to explain to my husband that we are paying the same price for the contract (160 pts @ SSR) then a week at Arte. He didn't believe until I showed him the numbers.

 

[FrancisK7]

Our home away from home is Hotel Xcaret Arte...bought into their club as founding members and go back at least twice a year. Buying my first DVC contract this month and trying to explain to my husband that we are paying the same price for the contract (160 pts @ SSR) then a week at Arte. He didn't believe until I showed him the numbers.

I find the Xcaret membership really awful unless you already planned to go at least once a year. There is no way to rent your membership the years you don't go, so its difficult to justify.

With 3 kids we are forced into two rooms too.

Casa de la Playa just went up to 3k/night. Imho the Xcaret group is on crack

 

[rhiansmom]

I find the Xcaret membership really awful unless you already planned to go at least once a year. There is no way to rent your membership the years you don't go, so its difficult to justify.

With 3 kids we are forced into two rooms too.

Casa de la Playa just went up to 3k/night. Imho the Xcaret group is on crack

Thankfully we got in as founding members at a really low price and from the "free" nights and the award nights for referring others we have well exceeded what the membership costs before the discount. We recently did a review of your contract and the costs they were quoting others was crazy and yes I do believe they are on crack!

That said it is our absolute favorite place but seeing service and perks be removed is disappointing.

 

[Flynn's Gal]

What other explanation have we other than ignorance for people offering to sell fully loaded contracts? Why would they not strip it, rent the point and get the maximum amount of value out before selling? I'm guessing they just don't know they can.

One likely scenario besides ignorance is that the contract belonged to someone who couldn't use it as they became older or physically unable to travel. They may have passed away and the heirs just want to sell it and be done. So the contract may end up on the market fully loaded.

 

[aammtt20]

One likely scenario besides ignorance is that the contract belonged to someone who couldn't use it as they became older or physically unable to travel. They may have passed away and the heirs just want to sell it and be done. So the contract may end up on the market fully loaded.

Agreed - the first resale contract I bought was fully loaded, and I looked up the owners out of curiosity; they were in their early 80’s, so makes sense why the points had been accumulating

 

[that1jeff]

that1jeff---$95-$14748-125-AUL-Dec-0/22, 0/23, 125/24, 125/25- sent 5/16
that1jeff---$95-$20005-175-AUL-Dec-0/22, 0/23, 191/24, 175/25- sent 5/26

Our first DVC contracts are in the ROFR hopper.

Aloha!

 

[AstroBlasters]

8-10k isn't the top end for a family vacation... not even close. My upcoming August DCL cruise on the Fantasy is literally double the price of a same length WDW vacation if you own points and DCL is constantly booked. Hotel Xcaret in Mexico is now easily 17k for a week for a family of 5. Club Med in the DR... 14K!

Park revenues are climbing every year, demand is not going away. The only other amusement park that is anywhere near the same league as WDW on our continent is Universal, and they happen to be in the same city, which adds value to a DVC ownership.

I feel very fortunate that sites like https://www.dvcrofr.com/ or dvcforless (which are new and recent) existed at a time when I was ready to invest/buy into DVC because it made my research much easier and allowed me to see the big picture.

I don't imagine there's been a better moment to invest into DVC than right now.

The 50% drop we've seen in the last two years are probably people who impulsively bought direct and financed it, and with rates being what they are now, are struggling and have no choice to sell. What other explanation have we other than ignorance for people offering to sell fully loaded contracts? Why would they not strip it, rent the point and get the maximum amount of value out before selling? I'm guessing they just don't know they can.

So we are currently profiting from high interest rates affecting financially irresponsible people who have to jettison their impulse buy, coupled with their ignorance of DVC mechanics. It's never been easier to find deals and we now have access to 8+ years of DVC data with dvcrofr.com.

The future is now!

I was with you at first and then I feel it got a bit condescending…..

Never been a better moment to buy into DVC? Like, ever? Pre 2020 the best time to buy into (not invest) DVC for most people was as soon as they found about it…. the people who bought direct or resale in the 90s and early 00s…. an amazing purchase….

Even the people who bought resale at “revenge travel” pricing mid-2020 to late 2022 still got the benefit of using the contract for a few years between now a then.

But life happens. People get older, their financial situation changes, maybe they made a purchase when they were covered in Pixie dust…. DVC ownership is a niche within a niche within a niche and I don’t think any of us should be talking down about such a large group of our fellow owners.

<AstroBlasters steps down from the soap box>

 

[NVDISFamily]

The only other amusement park that is anywhere near the same league as WDW on our continent is Universal, and they happen to be in the same city, which adds value to a DVC ownership.

DLR and its visitor statistics would like a word…..

Yes MK get’s more bodies in the door but Disneyland does pretty well all things considered. IMO in rides, nostalgia, or charm per acre, it can’t be beat. For a DLR veteran I love visiting WDW and seeing all the differences and it’s so interesting to me for those who view WDW as Disney that some forget the OG mouse house exists over here in the west.

I do agree with Universal and its expansion being a big + for DVC. I wonder if that will help fill up OKW and SSR more as those would be good places to stay at and hike up the road to Universal Orlando if you don’t stay there.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

I was with you at first and then I feel it got a bit condescending…..

Never been a better moment to buy into DVC? Like, ever? Pre 2020 the best time to buy into (not invest) DVC for most people was as soon as they found about it…. the people who bought direct or resale in the 90s and early 00s…. an amazing purchase….

Even the people who bought resale at “revenge travel” pricing mid-2020 to late 2022 still got the benefit of using the contract for a few years between now a then.

But life happens. People get older, their financial situation changes, maybe they made a purchase when they were covered in Pixie dust…. DVC ownership is a niche within a niche within a niche and I don’t think any of us should be talking down about such a large group of our fellow owners.

<AstroBlasters steps down from the soap box>

FWIW, I agree with everything you said but I also don’t think they intended it as judgmental of people who bought at a certain time so much as people who are selling loaded contracts at (allegedly) distressed prices because they overextended with floating rate debt on direct contracts.

I actually disagree with almost every assumption made in that post— first of all, you can’t assess the best time to buy on a DVC wide basis. The idea that “the best time to buy is now” is patently absurd for some properties (looking at PVB at/above $180, VGF resale around the price where you could get it direct a year ago with ‘22 and ‘23 points), the many 2042 resorts that have less than 20 years left and sell for more than they did several years ago…there are only a few resorts I feel it may actually be true of…

Moving on to loaded contracts—the stripped contracts for most resorts aren’t going so fast these days. Perhaps the sellers wanted to get out and move on before additional declines from here? Maybe they didn’t think the after tax gain from stripping points was worth their time/trouble? Maybe they purchased 20+ years ago and were already going to have a large profit and capital gains tax bill after two decades of saving a lot of money and creating family memories so they didn’t care?

I guess I agree that the tools referenced here make it much easier to get a sense of the market and identify relatively good and bad deals…but it doesn’t mean they are good relative to future pricing with so many uncertainties. I’m not going to list a parade of hypothetical horribles and I wouldn’t own several hundred DVC points (and keep an eye out for deals) if I was expecting a major crash—but I would not advise anybody to buy unless owning and using the points makes sense for their family, even if the future resale value is de minimus.

 

[Jwaire]

OKW went on sale for $51 per point in 1991. Minimum buy in was 230 points. That's $11,730. The median net compensation in the United States in 1991 was right at $15,000.

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/central.html

It's all about perspective.

 

[AwfulWaffle]

I do agree with Universal and its expansion being a big + for DVC

I don't know that its a big+ but certainly a reason to keep your membership a bit longer. As kids age out of Disney then they age right into Universal so as a parent it is certainly convenient to have both in close proximity. Personally I prefer Universal and Seaworld and I finally may have someone in my corner for once since the 13 year old is really excited about the How to Train a Dragon land in the new Epic Universal expansion
If I get the blessing to get tickets there the we will definitely be using our SSR points to stay on property for those days

 

[FrancisK7]

I'm French and still translate expressions directly to English when writing so perhaps the connotation in English of saying people are financially irresponsible is seen as condescending, but it is not the case where I live, it was said in a "matter of fact" way because these are the official statistics in my country... 50% of people earning the median household salary (so not in poverty) live paycheque to paycheque here because 1. they live well above their means 2. financial literacy is nearly nonexistent in our culture as it's not taught in any school curriculum.

According to WHOIS data dvcrofr.com was created in 2023 so I assumed before there was no equivalent tool easily giving access to all the data to make better informed decisions. So even if in 2020 it was a great time, it wasn't as easy to determine it was!

If I rent 100% of the points I just bought every year I'll see a 12.47% annual return (assuming BCV@20$ and others @18$), taking me only 8 years to recoup 100% of the capital invested. That's better than my favorite index fund (XEQT). Considering the risk involved, that's a damn good return, plus it gives me 75% off rack rates at WDW! What's not to love. The fact renting can be somewhat automated by using brokers, all for the trouble of mailing a W7 to the IRS to get an ITIN, is icing on the cake.

Without access to dvcrofr.com data I might have bought one contract, but not 6 or 7. And without the aggregate site, might have not found all the deals I did (or maybe I would have with more work involved). So that's why I said now is the perfect timing, because we have access to all the information and we're back to 2017 pricing.

I absolutely did not mean to belittle anyone though, I do apologize if it came off as such. Cheers!

 

[Cfabar1]

My view is vacations are quickly becoming something that middle class families cannot afford to do... especially Disney vacations...

OKW went on sale for $51 per point in 1991. Minimum buy in was 230 points. That's $11,730. The median net compensation in the United States in 1991 was right at $15,000.

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/central.html

It's all about perspective.

Other ways of looking at this:
230 Points for about $27,000 inflation adjusted that included 7 or 8 years of free admission for half of your traveling party if you maxed out the room.... So if you booked a 2 BR as a family of four, your admission was free...

Today, new DVC owner purchasers at RIV would pay I think about $47,000 if I am reading the incentive chart correctly for that same amount of points.... Not even one free day of park admission is included....

Then you can add that 230 points at OKW when it opened got you basically a week in a 2 Bedroom Unit during "choice season". There is currently not a single view type in a 2 Bedroom at Riviera an owner can even get for 230 points. Best case scenario would be a 2 BR standard view in September which would require 284 points which is just under around $55,000 in current incentives.... AND that doesn't include the fact that is getting you a 2 BR in the lowest "season" (instead of the initial OKW category which would have been what was, at the time, the second lowest season). And that isn't even for the ability to book any 2 BR at Riviera, only some of them.

Watching the initial videos marketing DVC, it is clear they were marketing to an older and higher income demographic than the Disney WDW Vacation Planning Videos that were made at the time. However, as time as gone on, DVC has tried to both broaden the appeal of DVC and they have done so by promoting studios, offering lower buy ins, etc. and at the same time have made each point in the newer resorts worth less (with the possible recent exception being CFW, which has other issues surrounding whether purchasing is a sound financial idea).

But make no mistake - those who want the true 1991-style Timeshare resort product at an affordable price missed the train! Disney is still selling DVC points - I think last year was their 2nd best year ever if I'm not mistaken... Disney just knows it can charge way MORE than what it used to, provide LESS, and people like many of us on this board will still willingly hand over our wallets...

 

[CastAStone]

According to WHOIS data dvcrofr.com was created in 2023 so I assumed before there was no equivalent tool easily giving access to all the data to make better informed decisions. So even if in 2020 it was a great time, it wasn't as easy to determine it was!

There have been other tools like DVC ROFR in the past, although perhaps not as comprehensive.

The creators tend to get bored and abandon them after a few years.