POT (Proof of Time) Race Equivalency Cutoff Confirmed Times

[The Expert]

Thanks everyone!

I suppose I should either train hard for one more attempt at S2 in September, or mentally prepare myself to potentially be in S3 for all 4 races. I'm actually not sure which one is more difficult!

Option 3: Spring for Platinum level Club rD and get S2 (at least that's where they put them this past MW - could change). Looks like it should open back up for memberships around the end of the month.

 

[striker1064]

Option 3: Spring for Platinum level Club rD and get S2 (at least that's where they put them this past MW - could change). Looks like it should open back up for memberships around the end of the month.

While I appreciate the suggestion, there is zero chance I would ever pay ~$850 for Platinum just to be in a guaranteed corral (or any tier, really).

 

[kevin75]

As someone who's trying to shave off some time to (maybe) submit a PoT, has there been any idea as to when the latest date might be to submit for the HM for 2023 Marathon weekend?

 

[Dom497]

As someone who's trying to shave off some time to (maybe) submit a PoT, has there been any idea as to when the latest date might be to submit for the HM for 2023 Marathon weekend?

Copying my post from the MW thread:

Covid has kinda messed up the PoT windows. For all races that have happened "post-covid", the PoT window has been valid from as early as January 2019. Disney hasn't published any info about Marathon Weekend yet so we don't know what the PoT window will be...though I suspect it will probably also be January 2019. The problem with pushing the PoT window to something like January 2020 or January 2021 is that races didn't happen in many parts of the States and in the world until recently (heck I live in Toronto, Canada and we are having the first "big" race since April 2020 this coming weekend...)

 

[DopeyBadger]

As someone who's trying to shave off some time to (maybe) submit a PoT, has there been any idea as to when the latest date might be to submit for the HM for 2023 Marathon weekend?

Officially, runDisney hasn't published that information yet. Based on recent weekends, the POT deadline is likely to be Sept 30th, 2022.

 

[kevin75]

Officially, runDisney hasn't published that information yet. Based on recent weekends, the POT deadline is likely to be Sept 30th, 2022.

Thanks DopeyBadger! That was more along the lines of what I was looking for.

 

[accm]

If my estimated half time right now using a race equivalent calculator is 2:13, is it realistic for me to believe that with good training I'd be able to meet the presumed POT cutoff time of 2:07:48 by September? Or is that too big of a jump? I'm trying to decide if it's even worth signing up for a race then, since it'd require out of town travel.

 

[DopeyBadger]

If my estimated half time right now using a race equivalent calculator is 2:13, is it realistic for me to believe that with good training I'd be able to meet the presumed POT cutoff time of 2:07:48 by September? Or is that too big of a jump? I'm trying to decide if it's even worth signing up for a race then, since it'd require out of town travel.

Can you answer the following questions and I'd be able to give a more accurate answer?

-What was your first race time ever, and when did it occur?
-What are all of your race results in the last year? And are there any extenuating circumstances around any of these races as to why you feel they aren't a good judge of fitness?
-Based on where this upcoming HM will occur, what is the historical temp + dew point in that location at that time of the race for the last five years? I use weather underground to collect historical weather data (link).
-How much of a change in training do you expect to do in the next six months compared to the last six months?

 

[accm]

Can you answer the following questions and I'd be able to give a more accurate answer?

-What was your first race time ever, and when did it occur?
-What are all of your race results in the last year? And are there any extenuating circumstances around any of these races as to why you feel they aren't a good judge of fitness?
-Based on where this upcoming HM will occur, what is the historical temp + dew point in that location at that time of the race for the last five years? I use weather underground to collect historical weather data (link).
-How much of a change in training do you expect to do in the next six months compared to the last six months?

First race was in 2016, Disneyland Paris Half, which I think I finished in 2:45ish? That was with character stops.
In the last year I did wine and dine 10k in 1:03:45, pacing myself since I knew I had the half the following day, and the half in 2:33:05, after getting hurt around mile 4. These were both with inconsistent training
Historical temp is average of 62F, and average for the last 10 years is 52 (there was no historical avg, so I averaged the last 10 years - it ranged from 40.69-66.41)
I'm hoping to get the all clear from my doctor to start training in the next month. Still working on my knee right now, so I'm working on being consistent right now. So I guess the big change will be actually following a training plan and being consistent with my training.

 

[DopeyBadger]

First race was in 2016, Disneyland Paris Half, which I think I finished in 2:45ish? That was with character stops.
In the last year I did wine and dine 10k in 1:03:45, pacing myself since I knew I had the half the following day, and the half in 2:33:05, after getting hurt around mile 4. These were both with inconsistent training

What race are you using to get a 2:13 HM equivalent, and when did it occur?

Have you ever done a mile time trial? It sounds like you are dealing with an injury, so I wouldn't advise trying one anytime soon if that's the case. You want to be at about six weeks of good consistent training before attempting a mile time trial. You'd want to be around an 8:17 min/mile to have a realistic shot at a 2:07:48 HM.

Historical temp is average of 62F, and average for the last 10 years is 52 (there was no historical avg, so I averaged the last 10 years - it ranged from 40.69-66.41)

Those are near ideal temps and should likely not hurt your chances.

I'm hoping to get the all clear from my doctor to start training in the next month. Still working on my knee right now, so I'm working on being consistent right now. So I guess the big change will be actually following a training plan and being consistent with my training.

Does that mean you haven't been training lately? If so, have you been completely off from running, or just doing a reduced training schedule? How long has this been happening? This will tell us how long to expect to get back to your previous best fitness situation, and then tells us how much time you have to make new gains before the upcoming HM. Easier to rebuild fitness than it is to make new gains.

Getting closer to having a good idea.

 

[accm]

What race are you using to get a 2:13 HM equivalent, and when did it occur?

Have you ever done a mile time trial? It sounds like you are dealing with an injury, so I wouldn't advise trying one anytime soon if that's the case. You want to be at about six weeks of good consistent training before attempting a mile time trial. You'd want to be around an 8:17 min/mile to have a realistic shot at a 2:07:48 HM.

It's not from a race. I used the fact that I was running 5ks in 29 minutes last summer while training.
I've never done a mile time trial, but will do it once I've been training consistently.

Does that mean you haven't been training lately? If so, have you been completely off from running, or just doing a reduced training schedule? How long has this been happening? This will tell us how long to expect to get back to your previous best fitness situation, and then tells us how much time you have to make new gains before the upcoming HM. Easier to rebuild fitness than it is to make new gains.

Getting closer to having a good idea.

I was completely off running from November to January, the started following a 10k plan you recommended, and for the last 2 or 3 weeks have been running, but have been capping it at about 2.5 miles.

Thank you for the help! I might sign up for it anyways, but it'd be good to know if its an attainable goal, or to just forget about the POT

 

[DopeyBadger]

It's not from a race. I used the fact that I was running 5ks in 29 minutes last summer while training.

Were those race level effort 5ks and are you confident that the distance is accurate? Is that a 29:00 or 29:59?

I was completely off running from November to January, the started following a 10k plan you recommended, and for the last 2 or 3 weeks have been running, but have been capping it at about 2.5 miles.

I'd say that means you're at least six weeks away to getting back to your old fitness levels. When is the HM race?

 

[accm]

Were those race level effort 5ks and are you confident that the distance is accurate? Is that a 29:00 or 29:59?



I'd say that means you're at least six weeks away to getting back to your old fitness levels. When is the HM race?

It looks like they ranged from about 29:20-29:50. And I’d say pretty close to race level effort. It was before I knew that not every run had to be at 100%.
The race is on Sep 11. It’s also supposedly a very flat course if that matters.

 

[Disneyhanna]

It looks like they ranged from about 29:20-29:50. And I’d say pretty close to race level effort. It was before I knew that not every run had to be at 100%.
The race is on Sep 11. It’s also supposedly a very flat course if that matters.

Anecdotally, I ran a 27:32 5k in very hot/humid weather (above 80) and about two months later ran a 1:35:05 10 mile in ideal conditions (around 50) while training consistently for both races. I plugged in my 10 mile time into Luke Humphrey's race equivalency calculator and my times are basically spot on in terms of equivalency. If the weather were better for the 5k, I probably could have done 27 flat on that day. The calculator puts me at a 2:06:43 HM, or about a minute under the 2:07:48 HM cutoff. Hope that is somewhat insightful!

 

[DopeyBadger]

It looks like they ranged from about 29:20-29:50. And I’d say pretty close to race level effort. It was before I knew that not every run had to be at 100%.
The race is on Sep 11. It’s also supposedly a very flat course if that matters.

Alright, so you're looking at about 21 weeks until race day. Six weeks to return to baseline (minimally) gives you 15 weeks of training. You've been running for about six years so your improvement is probably going to be stunted compared to a newer runner, although your race history suggests there's more than likely still room to grow. You were in about 2:15 HM shape, so you need about 5.4% improvement. A 5% gain is on the higher end for a single training plan gain, but I've seen as high as 10-11% before. So I'd say the possibility of running a sub-2:08 is there, but it's likely going to take a bigger training load with a good training plan to get there. Of course with an increased training load comes an increased risk of injury, so you'd want to figure out the root causes of your previous injury before you'd want to attempt to increase the training. My suggestion is give yourself another six weeks of easy running. After that, try a mile time trial to give yourself a general idea of where you're at. If you're in the 8:40s, then the chance is probably lower. If you're in the 8:20s, then you have a reasonable chance at it.

 

[accm]

Alright, so you're looking at about 21 weeks until race day. Six weeks to return to baseline (minimally) gives you 15 weeks of training. You've been running for about six years so your improvement is probably going to be stunted compared to a newer runner, although your race history suggests there's more than likely still room to grow. You were in about 2:15 HM shape, so you need about 5.4% improvement. A 5% gain is on the higher end for a single training plan gain, but I've seen as high as 10-11% before. So I'd say the possibility of running a sub-2:08 is there, but it's likely going to take a bigger training load with a good training plan to get there. Of course with an increased training load comes an increased risk of injury, so you'd want to figure out the root causes of your previous injury before you'd want to attempt to increase the training. My suggestion is give yourself another six weeks of easy running. After that, try a mile time trial to give yourself a general idea of where you're at. If you're in the 8:40s, then the chance is probably lower. If you're in the 8:20s, then you have a reasonable chance at it.

Thank you so much for all the insight! I think I'll talk to my husband about registering regardless of POT, so I can get the last half out of my system, and don't need to worry about trying to prove anything (to myself) on Marathon weekend.

 

[Disneyhanna]

Hopefully this isn't old news, but it looks like the RunDisney website has been updated for Marathon Weekend! Hoping I can slide into s3 if I decide to go for Dopey with a 1:35:05 10 mile.

Proof of Time Guidelines

If you believe you will finish the Half Marathon in 2 hours and 15 minutes (2:15) or less or the Marathon in 4 hours and 30 minutes (4:30) or less, proof of time is required for start group placement. If you believe you will finish the Half Marathon in over 2 hours and 15 minutes or the Marathon in over 4 hours and 30 minutes, proof of time is not required. Start group placement is based on your anticipated finish time and start group capacities. Goofy’s Race and a Half Challenge and Dopey Challenge participants should adhere to Full Marathon proof of time requirements. Proof of time is not required for the 5K and 10K races.
Please note that if you submit a proof of time from an alternate race distance, an industry standard calculation will be applied to equate your finish time.

• Proof of time must be provided from an officially timed race on a USATF certified course reflecting results between January 1, 2019, and September 27, 2022, and must be one of the below listed distances.
• Runners will be placed in the last start group if appropriate race distance is not submitted for proof of time or if the data provided is incomplete or cannot be verified.

Full Marathon Proof of Time: Results for a 10-Mile, Half Marathon or Marathon
Half Marathon Proof of Time: Results for a 10K, 10-Mile, Half Marathon or Marathon

 

[Dom497]

^ So it looks like the Marathon POT window has increased by 30 minutes (I think last year was 4 hours?)

 

[kps7795]

Perhaps @DopeyBadger or someone else can clarify something for me...I understand that you need proof that you can run the half marathon in 2:15 and the full marathon in 4:30. I ran a half in 2:11:35. What does that mean for my POT for the full marathon? What POT establishes that you can run the full marathon in 4:30?

 

[GollyGadget]

Perhaps @DopeyBadger or someone else can clarify something for me...I understand that you need proof that you can run the half marathon in 2:15 and the full marathon in 4:30. I ran a half in 2:11:35. What does that mean for my POT for the full marathon? What POT establishes that you can run the full marathon in 4:30?

According to the first post, it looks like 2:07:48

Old values pre-2021/2022 calendar: