POT (Proof of Time) Race Equivalency Cutoff Confirmed Times

DopeyBadger

Imagathoner
Joined
Oct 15, 2015
Hi all,

I figured runners of all the different runDisney races would be interested in the following information. We do now have confirmed cutoffs for the 2024-2025 POT season as it has been set at 2:30 hours for HM POT and 5:00 hours for M POT (presumably).

Based on DL Halloween and W&D, here is an updated POT equivalency chart based on that information:

CURRENT VERSION IS 02.20.24

Screenshot 2024-02-20 at 11.13.43 AM.png

OLD VERSIONS BELOW with previous cutoff information

screen-shot-2023-01-12-at-8-21-29-am-png.731439


1652898528761.png


The pink values are the times runDisney had previously confirmed during the 2021-2022 racing season as the race equivalents of a 4:00 M and 2:00 HM. I have no reason to believe these values will deviate much from our previous confirmation. The orange values were the new cutoffs provided to me as estimates/rounded. They are all reasonably close to what I had calculated prior based on the previous estimated Riegel R values. The biggest difference was the 4:52 marathon equivalent to the 2:15 HM which I had a 4:54 (so still close).

Below was my theoretical version prior to getting more concrete values from runDisney. They're still leaving some wiggle room in their language on the most recent confirmation, so I still think these are probably reasonably close to reality.

Screen Shot 2022-04-09 at 12.36.05 PM.png

Old values pre-2021/2022 calendar:

Screen Shot 2021-05-10 at 8.55.29 AM.png

So, if you are looking to have a POT submittable time, then your POT should be faster than what is listed above. So a 1:38:00 10 mile is fast enough to be a POT submittable time for a HM solo event (or Challenge), but not fast enough for a M/Goofy/Dopey POT submission.

Since we have these, I've used this to help convert what I believe to be very close to the corral cutoffs. Since runDisney has moved away from the "lots of corrals with set number of people model" to a "small number of corral based on a set POT and do mini-wave" system, then these corral cutoffs should presumably be translatable across all the runDisney weekends (Princess, Marathon, Avengers, Star Wars, etc.).

The orange values are the confirmed cutoffs and the rest are just educated guesses based on math.

To read this chart, let's say you wanted to be in Starting Group s2 of Dopey. Then runDisney seems to have placed that at a 3:40-4:00 M race equivalent. So you would need to run at least a POT under 1:24:30 for 10 miler or 1:53:45 for HM.

Let's say you were aiming for Starting Group s1 of the HM solo event. Then you'd need at least a 54:45 10k, 1:31:15 10 miler, or 4:21:45 M.

If you select a non-POT submittable finish, then you'll be asked for an "estimated finish".

Screen Shot 2020-03-10 at 3.50.50 PM.png

Screen Shot 2020-03-10 at 3.50.57 PM.png

If you choose 2:30-2:45 HM, then you will be placed in the first non-POT starting group (Corral D or its equivalent). If you choose 3:15-3:30 HM, then you will be placed in the last starting group (Corral F or it's equivalent). During the 2022 runDisney season they were changing the number of starting groups each weekend. So while the graphics above say six starting groups, runDisney could do four for Wine and Dine and then six for MW. At this point we haven't nailed down the methodology choices on that, and we may never since it seems to some extent it's based on the estimates runners choose for that particular weekend (leading to the combination of two selectable ranges). The point being, ultimately the faster estimated range you select the earlier start group you'll be in.

Same goes for the 5k/10k (either as a solo event or as a challenge). What you choose from the drop-down will determine Corral position for that event (most of the time, we've seen some funny business here off and on).

Screen Shot 2018-07-19 at 11.57.24 AM.png

Screen Shot 2018-07-19 at 11.57.44 AM.png

I hope this helps and let me know if there is any confusion!

ETA: I updated the race equivalency corral breakdown chart into a more readable format.
ETA (3/4/2019): Based on 2019 Princess, I have amended the estimated cutoffs for a HM POT.
ETA (7/24/2019): Did a search for all POT related discussions with confirmed conversions from runDIsney. Used the average R value from those confirmed conversions to slightly amend the corral estimated cutoffs chart. New version depicted above.

ETA (3/10/2020): After contacting runDisney, I have received confirmation that the 2:30 HM POT cutoff is the new standard moving forward starting with Wine and Dine 2020. They provided me with the conversions necessary for each of the submittable distances as seen in the new updated chart at the beginning.

ETA (4/2/2020): runDisney has updated their website to show the new POT cutoff for the marathon distance is 5 hours. A new updated chart as been added and will be updated with official cutoffs when that information is available.

ETA (5/10/2021): Error was found in 10 miler HM POT calculated values.

ETA (6/30/2021): With the announcement of the 2021/2022 runDisney calendar came a new HM POT cutoff for Wine and Dine 2021 at 2:00 hrs. There is nothing listed for the Marathon at this time. I've included a new theoretical POT cutoff sheet above until we learn more.

ETA (7/7/2021): @Herding_Cats shared an image from an email from runDisney stating the marathon POT cutoff will be 5:00 hrs.

ETA (7/19/2021): Confirmed 2021 Marathon Weekend cutoff of 4 hours or less per runDisney's website.

ETA (7/20/2021): Confirmed cutoffs for 2021-2022 POT from runDisney.

ETA (1/21/2022): Add unofficial cutoffs from 2022 Marathon Weekend design

ETA (4/9/2022): Confirmed cutoffs for HM events moved to 2:15 POT equivalent and for M/Goofy/Dopey to 4:30 POT equivalent.

ETA (5/18/2022): Estimated/rounded cutoffs shared by runDIsney.

ETA (1/12/2023): Cutoffs changed based on how MW 2023 was handled.

ETA (2/20/2024): Based on 2024 Disneyland Halloween Weekend and 2024 Wine and Dine Weekend, the HM POT cutoff has been moved to 2:30 or less. So a new updated table has been made reflecting that change. At this point in time we don't have confirmation that Marathon/Goofy/Dopey is moving to a 5:00hr cutoff, but I will change the table to reflect that possibility.
 

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Wow, that is a liberal time for A. Thanks for the hard work.

From the 2018 HM and M at Marathon Weekend:

Screen Shot 2018-08-08 at 5.34.04 PM.png

1517 bibs in A of Marathon and 1287 bibs in A of Half Marathon. So a significant change from the past (like 2017) where there more like 500-600 bibs in A.
 


Thanks DopeyBadger for putting this together!

It gives me another thing to obsess about until the 2019 Marathon weekend.

When running Wine and Dine Lumiere's Challenge in 2016, I submitted a POT of 1:44:22 Half Marathon time and ended up in corral A for 10k and corral B for the Half Marathon. Your tables line up very closely with that.
 
Yeah, but corrals went through P in 2017 and earlier so we have the new mini waves to thank for the new corral capacity.

Agreed. This was the 2017 full corral breakdown.

Screen Shot 2018-08-08 at 8.42.46 PM.png

Back then they seemed to be focused on # of bibs per corral. But now with the new mini-wave system, they seem to be focused on a set POT cutoff for each corral. Honestly, it seems like doing the new system makes it significantly easier for themselves.

When running Wine and Dine Lumiere's Challenge in 2016, I submitted a POT of 1:44:22 Half Marathon time and ended up in corral A for 10k and corral B for the Half Marathon. Your tables line up very closely with that.

img_6902.jpg

The 2016 Wine and Dine was back in the day of more corrals with possibly no mini-waves. So slightly different then what I believe is their new system. So your 2016 time lining up might have just been coincidence to the possible new method.
 
I used the same HM time I mentioned in the other thread that I emailed RunDisney about and I was in A/B for the Dark Side Challenge this year.
 


It's interesting to see the cutoff times of 2016 -- my bib number was about 20 from Corral A. I didn't realize it was so close. Even in corral B, the course was never crowded and the character lines were always short. Hoping that it'll be the same experience with the Marathon in 2019..
 
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It's interesting to see the cutoff times of 2016 -- my bib number was 20302, so I missed the HM corral A by 21. I didn't realize it was so close. Even in corral B, the course was never crowded and the character lines were always short. Hoping that it'll be the same experience with the Marathon in 2019..

The key difference between your B for Wine and Dine in 2016 and the B for 2019 marathon weekend will be the number of people ahead of you. Without running the numbers, Wine and Dine would have been around 500 whereas Marathon weekend would be about 1500. That goes back to the less corrals and mini wave idea. Still not very crowded though.
 
This is great information... I was aiming for a 2:10 half, but now I can be a little slower and still be in coral D.
 
I finished the 10K with a chip time of 1:14:36! It sounds so silly but I was so happy to be under 1:15 for POT purposes!

I know 1:15 was confirmed in a previous email, so does that mean I’m safe for entry into corral E (the first POT corral)? Should I send an email and see what they say? I want to make sure I don’t need another run, because 10Ks are so few and far between. If I do, I’ll have to start searching again ASAP!
 
I finished the 10K with a chip time of 1:14:36! It sounds so silly but I was so happy to be under 1:15 for POT purposes!

I know 1:15 was confirmed in a previous email, so does that mean I’m safe for entry into corral E (the first POT corral)? Should I send an email and see what they say? I want to make sure I don’t need another run, because 10Ks are so few and far between. If I do, I’ll have to start searching again ASAP!

Congrats!

I'd say you're as safe as we can believe. But you're more than welcome to send an additional email to them to confirm. But your sub-1:15 seems like it'll be what you're looking for in terms of getting into Corral E (or its equivalent).
 
Have a POT question for the Star Wars half...can I use my 10k from the marathon weekend 2018 for this or does it have to be from a half marathon?
 
Have a POT question for the Star Wars half...can I use my 10k from the marathon weekend 2018 for this or does it have to be from a half marathon?

For the 2019 Star Wars Rival Run Weekend (April 4-7th, 2019), you can submit a 10k time for your HM POT that is from April 1st, 2017 or sooner. So yes, the 2018 Marathon Weekend 10k would be within that timeframe and qualifies for HM POT submission. They usually give you about a 2 year timeframe.

Screen Shot 2018-08-12 at 2.27.03 PM.png
 
Awesome, thanks. Does rundisney track old race times? Or do I need to provide a link?

You will need to provide a link. They don't track old races on their own. Act as if the Marathon Weekend 10k was from a completely unrelated event to runDisney.
 

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