DopeyBadger
Imagathoner
- Joined
- Oct 15, 2015
- Messages
- 10,266
Hi all,
I figured runners of all the different runDisney races would be interested in the following information. We do now have confirmed cutoffs for the 2024-2025 POT season as it has been set at 2:30 hours for HM POT and 5:00 hours for M POT (presumably).
Based on DL Halloween and W&D, here is an updated POT equivalency chart based on that information:
CURRENT VERSION IS 10.31.24
OLD VERSIONS BELOW with previous cutoff information
The pink values are the times runDisney had previously confirmed during the 2021-2022 racing season as the race equivalents of a 4:00 M and 2:00 HM. I have no reason to believe these values will deviate much from our previous confirmation. The orange values were the new cutoffs provided to me as estimates/rounded. They are all reasonably close to what I had calculated prior based on the previous estimated Riegel R values. The biggest difference was the 4:52 marathon equivalent to the 2:15 HM which I had a 4:54 (so still close).
Below was my theoretical version prior to getting more concrete values from runDisney. They're still leaving some wiggle room in their language on the most recent confirmation, so I still think these are probably reasonably close to reality.
Old values pre-2021/2022 calendar:
So, if you are looking to have a POT submittable time, then your POT should be faster than what is listed above. So a 1:38:00 10 mile is fast enough to be a POT submittable time for a HM solo event (or Challenge), but not fast enough for a M/Goofy/Dopey POT submission.
Since we have these, I've used this to help convert what I believe to be very close to the corral cutoffs. Since runDisney has moved away from the "lots of corrals with set number of people model" to a "small number of corral based on a set POT and do mini-wave" system, then these corral cutoffs should presumably be translatable across all the runDisney weekends (Princess, Marathon, Avengers, Star Wars, etc.).
The orange values are the confirmed cutoffs and the rest are just educated guesses based on math.
To read this chart, let's say you wanted to be in Starting Group s2 of Dopey. Then runDisney seems to have placed that at a 3:40-4:00 M race equivalent. So you would need to run at least a POT under 1:24:30 for 10 miler or 1:53:45 for HM.
Let's say you were aiming for Starting Group s1 of the HM solo event. Then you'd need at least a 54:45 10k, 1:31:15 10 miler, or 4:21:45 M.
If you select a non-POT submittable finish, then you'll be asked for an "estimated finish".
If you choose 2:30-2:45 HM, then you will be placed in the first non-POT starting group (Corral D or its equivalent). If you choose 3:15-3:30 HM, then you will be placed in the last starting group (Corral F or it's equivalent). During the 2022 runDisney season they were changing the number of starting groups each weekend. So while the graphics above say six starting groups, runDisney could do four for Wine and Dine and then six for MW. At this point we haven't nailed down the methodology choices on that, and we may never since it seems to some extent it's based on the estimates runners choose for that particular weekend (leading to the combination of two selectable ranges). The point being, ultimately the faster estimated range you select the earlier start group you'll be in.
Same goes for the 5k/10k (either as a solo event or as a challenge). What you choose from the drop-down will determine Corral position for that event (most of the time, we've seen some funny business here off and on).
I hope this helps and let me know if there is any confusion!
ETA: I updated the race equivalency corral breakdown chart into a more readable format.
ETA (3/4/2019): Based on 2019 Princess, I have amended the estimated cutoffs for a HM POT.
ETA (7/24/2019): Did a search for all POT related discussions with confirmed conversions from runDIsney. Used the average R value from those confirmed conversions to slightly amend the corral estimated cutoffs chart. New version depicted above.
ETA (3/10/2020): After contacting runDisney, I have received confirmation that the 2:30 HM POT cutoff is the new standard moving forward starting with Wine and Dine 2020. They provided me with the conversions necessary for each of the submittable distances as seen in the new updated chart at the beginning.
ETA (4/2/2020): runDisney has updated their website to show the new POT cutoff for the marathon distance is 5 hours. A new updated chart as been added and will be updated with official cutoffs when that information is available.
ETA (5/10/2021): Error was found in 10 miler HM POT calculated values.
ETA (6/30/2021): With the announcement of the 2021/2022 runDisney calendar came a new HM POT cutoff for Wine and Dine 2021 at 2:00 hrs. There is nothing listed for the Marathon at this time. I've included a new theoretical POT cutoff sheet above until we learn more.
ETA (7/7/2021): @Herding_Cats shared an image from an email from runDisney stating the marathon POT cutoff will be 5:00 hrs.
ETA (7/19/2021): Confirmed 2021 Marathon Weekend cutoff of 4 hours or less per runDisney's website.
ETA (7/20/2021): Confirmed cutoffs for 2021-2022 POT from runDisney.
ETA (1/21/2022): Add unofficial cutoffs from 2022 Marathon Weekend design
ETA (4/9/2022): Confirmed cutoffs for HM events moved to 2:15 POT equivalent and for M/Goofy/Dopey to 4:30 POT equivalent.
ETA (5/18/2022): Estimated/rounded cutoffs shared by runDIsney.
ETA (1/12/2023): Cutoffs changed based on how MW 2023 was handled.
ETA (2/20/2024): Based on 2024 Disneyland Halloween Weekend and 2024 Wine and Dine Weekend, the HM POT cutoff has been moved to 2:30 or less. So a new updated table has been made reflecting that change. At this point in time we don't have confirmation that Marathon/Goofy/Dopey is moving to a 5:00hr cutoff, but I will change the table to reflect that possibility.
ETA (10/31/2024): Based on 2024 Wine and Dine Weekend, the Club runDisney Platinum members were placed into Corral B. I've also temporarily removed the DL designation from the current version since 2024 Disneyland Halloween Weekend doesn't appear to have followed the same corral placement method. At a later date, I'll attempt to figure out the methodology.
I figured runners of all the different runDisney races would be interested in the following information. We do now have confirmed cutoffs for the 2024-2025 POT season as it has been set at 2:30 hours for HM POT and 5:00 hours for M POT (presumably).
Based on DL Halloween and W&D, here is an updated POT equivalency chart based on that information:
CURRENT VERSION IS 10.31.24
OLD VERSIONS BELOW with previous cutoff information
The pink values are the times runDisney had previously confirmed during the 2021-2022 racing season as the race equivalents of a 4:00 M and 2:00 HM. I have no reason to believe these values will deviate much from our previous confirmation. The orange values were the new cutoffs provided to me as estimates/rounded. They are all reasonably close to what I had calculated prior based on the previous estimated Riegel R values. The biggest difference was the 4:52 marathon equivalent to the 2:15 HM which I had a 4:54 (so still close).
Below was my theoretical version prior to getting more concrete values from runDisney. They're still leaving some wiggle room in their language on the most recent confirmation, so I still think these are probably reasonably close to reality.
Old values pre-2021/2022 calendar:
So, if you are looking to have a POT submittable time, then your POT should be faster than what is listed above. So a 1:38:00 10 mile is fast enough to be a POT submittable time for a HM solo event (or Challenge), but not fast enough for a M/Goofy/Dopey POT submission.
Since we have these, I've used this to help convert what I believe to be very close to the corral cutoffs. Since runDisney has moved away from the "lots of corrals with set number of people model" to a "small number of corral based on a set POT and do mini-wave" system, then these corral cutoffs should presumably be translatable across all the runDisney weekends (Princess, Marathon, Avengers, Star Wars, etc.).
The orange values are the confirmed cutoffs and the rest are just educated guesses based on math.
To read this chart, let's say you wanted to be in Starting Group s2 of Dopey. Then runDisney seems to have placed that at a 3:40-4:00 M race equivalent. So you would need to run at least a POT under 1:24:30 for 10 miler or 1:53:45 for HM.
Let's say you were aiming for Starting Group s1 of the HM solo event. Then you'd need at least a 54:45 10k, 1:31:15 10 miler, or 4:21:45 M.
If you select a non-POT submittable finish, then you'll be asked for an "estimated finish".
If you choose 2:30-2:45 HM, then you will be placed in the first non-POT starting group (Corral D or its equivalent). If you choose 3:15-3:30 HM, then you will be placed in the last starting group (Corral F or it's equivalent). During the 2022 runDisney season they were changing the number of starting groups each weekend. So while the graphics above say six starting groups, runDisney could do four for Wine and Dine and then six for MW. At this point we haven't nailed down the methodology choices on that, and we may never since it seems to some extent it's based on the estimates runners choose for that particular weekend (leading to the combination of two selectable ranges). The point being, ultimately the faster estimated range you select the earlier start group you'll be in.
Same goes for the 5k/10k (either as a solo event or as a challenge). What you choose from the drop-down will determine Corral position for that event (most of the time, we've seen some funny business here off and on).
I hope this helps and let me know if there is any confusion!
ETA: I updated the race equivalency corral breakdown chart into a more readable format.
ETA (3/4/2019): Based on 2019 Princess, I have amended the estimated cutoffs for a HM POT.
ETA (7/24/2019): Did a search for all POT related discussions with confirmed conversions from runDIsney. Used the average R value from those confirmed conversions to slightly amend the corral estimated cutoffs chart. New version depicted above.
ETA (3/10/2020): After contacting runDisney, I have received confirmation that the 2:30 HM POT cutoff is the new standard moving forward starting with Wine and Dine 2020. They provided me with the conversions necessary for each of the submittable distances as seen in the new updated chart at the beginning.
ETA (4/2/2020): runDisney has updated their website to show the new POT cutoff for the marathon distance is 5 hours. A new updated chart as been added and will be updated with official cutoffs when that information is available.
ETA (5/10/2021): Error was found in 10 miler HM POT calculated values.
ETA (6/30/2021): With the announcement of the 2021/2022 runDisney calendar came a new HM POT cutoff for Wine and Dine 2021 at 2:00 hrs. There is nothing listed for the Marathon at this time. I've included a new theoretical POT cutoff sheet above until we learn more.
ETA (7/7/2021): @Herding_Cats shared an image from an email from runDisney stating the marathon POT cutoff will be 5:00 hrs.
ETA (7/19/2021): Confirmed 2021 Marathon Weekend cutoff of 4 hours or less per runDisney's website.
ETA (7/20/2021): Confirmed cutoffs for 2021-2022 POT from runDisney.
ETA (1/21/2022): Add unofficial cutoffs from 2022 Marathon Weekend design
ETA (4/9/2022): Confirmed cutoffs for HM events moved to 2:15 POT equivalent and for M/Goofy/Dopey to 4:30 POT equivalent.
ETA (5/18/2022): Estimated/rounded cutoffs shared by runDIsney.
ETA (1/12/2023): Cutoffs changed based on how MW 2023 was handled.
ETA (2/20/2024): Based on 2024 Disneyland Halloween Weekend and 2024 Wine and Dine Weekend, the HM POT cutoff has been moved to 2:30 or less. So a new updated table has been made reflecting that change. At this point in time we don't have confirmation that Marathon/Goofy/Dopey is moving to a 5:00hr cutoff, but I will change the table to reflect that possibility.
ETA (10/31/2024): Based on 2024 Wine and Dine Weekend, the Club runDisney Platinum members were placed into Corral B. I've also temporarily removed the DL designation from the current version since 2024 Disneyland Halloween Weekend doesn't appear to have followed the same corral placement method. At a later date, I'll attempt to figure out the methodology.
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