POT (Proof of Time) Race Equivalency Cutoff Confirmed Times

[GreatLakes]

I hope the "two year" window gets stretched for MW, but not hopeful.

I do too. I've only done one half since January 2019 and it was the slowest one I've done with the exception of one I ran for fun with a friend at their pace.

 

[garneska]

@DopeyBadger i was looking at the race calculator and i am thinking i need to go with my 10 miler for POT for 4 hour marathon. These are the my two races. I have a 10 miler in Oct 2019 of 1:24:46 and then i have Disney Half Jan 2020 1:56:37. When i look at lukehumphrey race calculator looks like my 10 miler would put me under the 4 hours. I think that is the race i should go with. I feel kind of bad as i am sure i will not go under 4 hours at Disney but i am figuring 4:30. I really dont want to be in the back corals. Not sure why, but if i can start in B i would rather do that.

 

[DopeyBadger]

@DopeyBadger i was looking at the race calculator and i am thinking i need to go with my 10 miler for POT for 4 hour marathon. These are the my two races. I have a 10 miler in Oct 2019 of 1:24:46 and then i have Disney Half Jan 2020 1:56:37. When i look at lukehumphrey race calculator looks like my 10 miler would put me under the 4 hours. I think that is the race i should go with. I feel kind of bad as i am sure i will not go under 4 hours at Disney but i am figuring 4:30. I really dont want to be in the back corals. Not sure why, but if i can start in B i would rather do that.

I would agree your 10 miler is under the estimated POT cutoff using runDisney's presumed calculation, but it's incredibly close. I plan to reach out to runDisney to get the new cutoffs for each convertible distance like I've done in the past now that we have official cutoffs for 2021-2022. But even if a 1:24:46 is not a POT according to their conversion, then you will still not be in a back corral unless you choose 6:31-7:00 hrs. If you choose 4:01-4:30 as your estimated finish, then you will be placed in that corral.

 

[jmasgat]

If you choose 4:01-4:30 as your estimated finish, then you will be placed in that corral.

The problem that I see is that so many people will say 4:01-4:15, e.g. , that it will overflow what would normally be one corral into who knows how many. Then it becomes semi-random as to where you will end up. People will give themselves the biggest cushion that they can.

 

[DopeyBadger]

The problem that I see is that so many people will say 4:01-4:15, e.g. , that it will overflow what would normally be one corral into who knows how many. Then it becomes semi-random as to where you will end up. People will give themselves the biggest cushion that they can.

I don't disagree that many will probably estimate a 4:01-4:15 even if that's not a capable time. I've outlined prior how many runners I think will end up in that corral. However, it is my belief that they will not separate out any mega corrals. If you choose 4:01-4:15, then you will be placed in the first corral behind Club runDisney. They allowed Corral F to be as much as 30% of the entire field without splitting it. My guess is they will put everyone who submits that time together and allow mini-waves to sort it out on race day. Not saying that's a good choice, but I believe that's the most likely outcome.

 

[garneska]

@jmasgat exactly. It’s been a long time since I was In the back, and I have been, I prefer those earlier corals because they are less crowded.

 

[DopeyBadger]

Here's that prior post with my modeling of how many people I think are going to be in that first non-POT corral. (link). 42% of the field for the Marathon and 32% of the field for the Half Marathon.

 

[DopeyBadger]

I missed this earlier, but a 12k and 15k are no long submittable distances for a HM POT (not that they were as common anyway). I've got an email out to them to hear back about what the race equivalency cutoffs are for the other submittable distances.

 

[DopeyBadger]

Alright, here is an updated POT cutoff estimates with confirmed values. They said there's some rounding in their values but these are close enough.



Admittedly, they are very close to the cutoffs I had estimated prior. So we're pretty close to the same calculation.

I had it as 10 miler = 1:24:50, HM = 1:53:36 for the Marathon POT.
I had it as 10k = 54:33, 10 miler = 1:31:12, M = 4:21:36 for the HM POT.

So the 10 mile and M conversion for the HM POT remain very advantageous from a time submitting standpoint.

One thing I'll add. I wouldn't be surprised to see Corral A and B above combined into a single POT corral. Since there's usually only 5% of the field in each, I could easily see runDisney combining these into a single 10-12% corral.

ETA: My inclusion of Club runDisney as its own corral between POT and non-POT is my guess only. This was not confirmed (nor did I ask) by runDisney.

 

[DopeyBadger]

I have a 10 miler in Oct 2019 of 1:24:46

So it looks like that falls on the wrong side of the conversion. They gave me a "rounded" time of 1:24:30. It's incredibly close. If it were me, I would submit that time. You're either in the POT corral or the first non-POT corral. I see almost a 0% chance of you being placed in the last corral because of an insufficient time submission. However, if you instead choose an estimated finish of 4:00-4:30, then there is a 0% chance you will be placed in the last corral.

Option 1 - Submit 1:24:46. 99% chance in first non-POT corral, 0.9% chance of POT corral, 0.1% chance of last corral.
Option 2 - Submit estimate of 4:00-4:30. 100% chance of first non-POT corral.

 

[garneska]

@DopeyBadger thanks for that info. I am with you it is close and while a slight risk i would be in the last coral, i am willing to roll that dice and i am going to submit it. I do think worst case is I end up in D but hopefully B.

 

[striker1064]

Well... Guess I'm gonna be training really hard for my 10-miler in September! Failing that, hopefully I can shave 5 minutes off my HM at W&D. Or not, because POT is due before W&D.

@DopeyBadger thanks for all this great information.

 

[jmasgat]

However, if you instead choose an estimated finish of 4:00-4:30, then there is a 0% chance you will be placed in the last corral.

Since we don't really know how they will distribute the non-PoT runners, nor how many non-PoT corrals there are going to be, nor how many will actually claim 4-4:30, then I would say not 0%. Maybe <5% (SWAG)

I agree it's really unlikely, but this is RD and we all know how cluelessly they sometime roll.

 

[Baloo in MI]

First thank you for this fantastic breakdown @DopeyBadger! Given all this, my question feels goofy and dopey . In the past I have submitted a half marathon time for my Dopey or Goofy registration. And that one POT covered the races. But when I look at the info and I see sub 2-hour for the Half but a conversion time of 1:53ish for the Marathon if using a Half POT my brain gets fuzzy….
Should I be reading this all that to get a POT corral for Dopey I will need the 1:53? Or does the sub-2 suffice?

No chance I am getting down to 1:53, Sub-2 is challenge enough for me. I just need to know if it is worth even trying for the only POT race I can run in September.

 

[DopeyBadger]

Since we don't really know how they will distribute the non-PoT runners, nor how many non-PoT corrals there are going to be, nor how many will actually claim 4-4:30, then I would say not 0%. Maybe <5% (SWAG)

I agree it's really unlikely, but this is RD and we all know how cluelessly they sometime roll.

It's a fair disagreement. I'm using that in 2019 and 2020 there was ~7% of the field placed into Corral G. They presumably chose an estimate of 6:01-6:30. Presumably not placed there due to bad POT as that would be either Corral F or H depending on circumstances. It's also not a smoothing effect either because F had 27% and H had 22%. So G really stands out. I know at a minimum there will be people who will choose 6:01-6:30 and not 4:00-4:30, because they prior had the option of choosing 5:30-6:00 (fastest non-POT available) and did not. Therefore, I'd say minimally they will be behind the first non-POT corral. That's where I'd say that choosing 4:00-4:30 would be a 0% chance of being the last corral. The only way that doesn't happen is if they go with three corrals (POT, Club runDisney, non-POT). I see a 0% chance of that happening because it would be a complete waste of energy to even ask for an estimated pace/finish then for non-POT runners. Of course that's where we both say, we know how clueless rD can be sometimes... But to me, I'd say if you put 4:00-4:30 you will not be in the last corral, but I don't actually know that for certain. But I can live with <5%.

First thank you for this fantastic breakdown @DopeyBadger! Given all this, my question feels goofy and dopey . In the past I have submitted a half marathon time for my Dopey or Goofy registration. And that one POT covered the races. But when I look at the info and I see sub 2-hour for the Half but a conversion time of 1:53ish for the Marathon if using a Half POT my brain gets fuzzy….
Should I be reading this all that to get a POT corral for Dopey I will need the 1:53? Or does the sub-2 suffice?

No chance I am getting down to 1:53, Sub-2 is challenge enough for me. I just need to know if it is worth even trying for the only POT race I can run in September.

You are running Dopey so you follow the Marathon POT requirements. That means a sub-4 hour marathon. Per the race equivalency calculation, that means a 1:53:45 HM or less. The sub-2 requirement is only relevant if you are only running the half marathon (or a 10k+HM Challenge runner from a different weekend).

 

[Baloo in MI]

Thanks! I will probably still run the September race. I really like the sweatshirt that comes with the race. And I may still shoot for a sub 2 for a future disney Half. Maybe what ever the Spring Surprise ends up being. But 1:53 is a little too fast for me. I have not been below a 1:59 since my injury/surgery. Really appreciate the clarification.

 

[UK_Disney_Dopey_Hopeful]

has anyone got any experience entering a POT being outside the US.

I notice that some of the fields RunDisney ask you to complete include State. Being a UK runner this wont be a field i cant enter any details into this (Possibly county, but if its a drop down/select box then that wont be possible)

im just wondering if you select which country you wish to submit a time from if the fields change?

I know when ive emailed RunDisney before im forced to complete a US address before it allows me submit my email query (I just use the address of the magic kingdom)

I have a 1:42 POT from November 2019 from UK race and just want to know if i should be expecting issues trying to enter this.

TIA!

 

[DopeyBadger]

im just wondering if you select which country you wish to submit a time from if the fields change?

Wine and Dine HM is still available, so you can play around with the registration. But I just went in and changed my Country from USA to UK. It dropped the state part of the address question.

 

[BigEeyore]

These POT rules are soooo confusing! I had thought based on the original language that I just had to show a POT for a HM under 2 hrs, but now it seems like my 1:54 half isn't good for much since it's a minute slower than the number rD came up with? Trying not to be bitter about club rD taking over corral C....

 

[MissLiss279]

These POT rules are soooo confusing! I had thought based on the original language that I just had to show a POT for a HM under 2 hrs, but now it seems like my 1:54 half isn't good for much since it's a minute slower than the number rD came up with? Trying not to be bitter about club rD taking over corral C....

I think a 1:54 half is very reasonable to think that you could run a 4:00 marathon. I personally would still use it, and hope for the best. I do not think rD would place you in the last corral for that, now behind club rD…

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My fastest halves in the last couple of years (April and May this year) were both around 1:58. I have a full marathon this weekend that I am really hoping to run under 4 hours. It is a downhill race, and my race calculator says I can. In this middle of my training plan I had to stop all speed work for about a month, so I wasn’t sure really where I stood with its prediction, but I was able to PR a mile (7:17) at OrangeTheory on Monday (and it was the last 7:17 of a 14 minute block, so I probably could be faster). I’m hopeful that my speed and endurance is there and I can crush the marathon this weekend! Now I’m just praying that I don’t have canceled or severely delayed flights…