Plans have been filed for DVC expansion at Caribbean Beach Resort

[DisDadDVC]

I agree - the CBR one will definitely be a "loader". The Boardwalk one may or may not be - but I would lean toward "NOT". It just doesn't make a lot of sense at it's current location, and even if "expansion" of a new resort somewhere - it wouldn't be there. I think it is just a router - a turn point. As I'm sure you know, any cable type device like this can to minor turns with just a tower, but to do a sharp > 90 degree turn requires a little more.



Right. This would be a bid job between like Poma and Dopplemayr and a few others. They typically build these things in a ski off-season (8 months) so it could easily be built in time for a 2019 opening. DVC sales through the roof.

2019 opening? Star Wars themed gondolas anyone?

 

[skier_pete]

What I wouldn't know is the 10-20K skier estimate. I buy your calculations on the resort numbers, but I have no concept of how many people ski at Tremblant on a typical day, besides that it's usually too many.

Quick search just now tells me that Tremblant has an overall lift capacity of just over 27,000 skiers/hour, so it sounds like you're in the right ballpark. On a busy day with an average 20 min wait at the lifts, that would imply around 20,000-ish skiers across the entire mountain.

I guess the more relevant question is simply what capacity can be expected of a gondola of this sort. Apparently the Tremblant Telecabine has a capacity of 2800/hr. The gondolas at Whistler are around the same. I'm sure it varies with length and configuration and who knows what else, but your 2-4K estimate is probably reasonable.

So... okay. You've convinced me that capacity, at least, shouldn't be a big issue.

I got the 10-20K skiers per hour just like you did. Based on lift capacity of 27,000 skiers/hour, and sort of assumed that most are doing 1-2 runs an hour. 20,000 is probably rather on the high side just for major holidays - it's probably more typically around 10,000, but the average skier is going to be taking between 10 and 20 runs ina day, which means 10 to 15 lift rides, so you might be talking about 100,000 or more riders a day on all the lifts. And all capacity is one way, unlike what we are talking about here. I haven't been to Treblant in so long (30 years) it's a different mountain now, but most ski areas have 25% of the lifts move 75% of the people - and a base gondola usually will handle a large chunk of capacity. Good chance the gondola is pushing 20,000 to 40,000 riders per day.

So then what's the impacted area near the BoardWalk parking lot? Is this (whatever "this" is, exactly) just needed to execute the turn in the line? And then we're to assume that the indirect routing past the Boardwalk entrance is just a logistical necessity (ie. for whatever reason, a more direct path to the IG just doesn't work)?

To be clear, lest someone misinterprets: none of those questions are intended as a challenge. Just trying to understand what's being proposed.

I still don't completely get it. It's more than likely a turn point. Gondolas can change directions slightly using towers, but in order to make a significant change of direction they need a sort of "pivot" point for the cable. (These runs are actually all short enough that they might be able to do them without any intermediate towers, and that is the ONLY tower on the run from CBT to Epcot.) Because they clearly want a route from CBR to both parks, the only way to get from CBT to the IG without cutting across the park is to make that sharp turn. (peak 2 peak at Whistler goes 1.88 miles without a support post...but also only carries two cars so it's more of a tramway than a gondola.)

It simply doesn't make sense as a location for loading/unloading.

As said before - these gondolas won't have to be built to go very high. They likely will be about 20 feet clearance below them. (For traffic on the roads.) The only tricky one will be the one going across the CBR Jamaica/Aruba area will have to be high enough to clear the buildings. I am pretty certain they will make them enclosed with some sort of air conditioning. This is why they are looking at clearing the tree line between CBR and DHS - the gondola won't be going high enough to be beyond the trees.)

 

[zemra406]

I think both of the curved structures (one at current CBR and other at BW parking area) are turn structures only and the loading structure itself could be in the CBR tower. Then there would be two lines. One from CBR tower to Epcot (making 2 turns) and one from CBR tower to the station across from Trinidad (making one turn). Unclear if you would then need to unload/reload to continue to DHS. Just a theory.

 

[aoconnor]

Good point. I am not sure they would really want to bring this sort of transportation to a value resort. Why stay at CBR when you can get the same thing at Pop??

I think it's extremely logical to add it to Pop/AoA. Those two resorts have a staggering 4,864 rooms. If you can charge an extra $15 per night and assume 85% average occupancy, that's an extra $22 million in revenue per year. That would be a massive return on investment to add a short extension to a system that already exists.

 

[Friendlyadvice2]

I think it's extremely logical to add it to Pop/AoA. Those two resorts have a staggering 4,864 rooms. If you can charge an extra $15 per night and assume 85% average occupancy, that's an extra $22 million in revenue per year. That would be a massive return on investment to add a short extension to a system that already exists.

This is Disney we're talking about......Why not just charge an extra $15 per night and get the same 85% occupancy and add nothing to those resorts? Then use that money to offset the construction of the main system.

 

[skier_pete]

I think it's extremely logical to add it to Pop/AoA. Those two resorts have a staggering 4,864 rooms. If you can charge an extra $15 per night and assume 85% average occupancy, that's an extra $22 million in revenue per year. That would be a massive return on investment to add a short extension to a system that already exists.

The issue is the increased traffic. You are now going to triple the traffic on the lines going from DVC / CBR, which will have about 2000 rooms. You also now lose the benefit to CBR. Why pay upcharge to stay at CBR when you can just stay at a value.

 

[sachilles]

I got the 10-20K skiers per hour just like you did. Based on lift capacity of 27,000 skiers/hour, and sort of assumed that most are doing 1-2 runs an hour. 20,000 is probably rather on the high side just for major holidays - it's probably more typically around 10,000, but the average skier is going to be taking between 10 and 20 runs ina day, which means 10 to 15 lift rides, so you might be talking about 100,000 or more riders a day on all the lifts. And all capacity is one way, unlike what we are talking about here. I haven't been to Treblant in so long (30 years) it's a different mountain now, but most ski areas have 25% of the lifts move 75% of the people - and a base gondola usually will handle a large chunk of capacity. Good chance the gondola is pushing 20,000 to 40,000 riders per day.




I still don't completely get it. It's more than likely a turn point. Gondolas can change directions slightly using towers, but in order to make a significant change of direction they need a sort of "pivot" point for the cable. (These runs are actually all short enough that they might be able to do them without any intermediate towers, and that is the ONLY tower on the run from CBT to Epcot.) Because they clearly want a route from CBR to both parks, the only way to get from CBT to the IG without cutting across the park is to make that sharp turn. (peak 2 peak at Whistler goes 1.88 miles without a support post...but also only carries two cars so it's more of a tramway than a gondola.)

It simply doesn't make sense as a location for loading/unloading.

As said before - these gondolas won't have to be built to go very high. They likely will be about 20 feet clearance below them. (For traffic on the roads.) The only tricky one will be the one going across the CBR Jamaica/Aruba area will have to be high enough to clear the buildings. I am pretty certain they will make them enclosed with some sort of air conditioning. This is why they are looking at clearing the tree line between CBR and DHS - the gondola won't be going high enough to be beyond the trees.)

For what it's worth in my previous life, I crunched these numbers daily in the winter. The resort I worked at, a good weekend day was 8000 skiers. Our base area configuration was such that you had several options out of the base area. You could guarantee 25,000 butts in seats per lift on an 8000 skier day. That is with an average 5 minute wait in the lift line.

 

[aoconnor]

The issue is the increased traffic. You are now going to triple the traffic on the lines going from DVC / CBR, which will have about 2000 rooms. You also now lose the benefit to CBR. Why pay upcharge to stay at CBR when you can just stay at a value.

I hear you, but maybe it wouldn't be just a value anymore. It could be some new category value +, or they could make it complimentary for CBR guests and charge a fee for rides at Pop/AoA (Disney has had a number of guest surveys recently about paid premium transportation).

Regarding capacity, take the London system as an example. The carriages fit 10 passengers each and depart every 15 seconds which is a capacity of 2,400 guests per hour. How many people fit on a bus, 50? So that system would have the capacity of ~45-50 buses, which only depart once every 20 minutes.

I just feel it's too close-- a mere 1,600 feet or so -- to not tie in to an additional 4,864 rooms. How much would that cost incrementally?

 

[sachilles]

I hear you, but maybe it wouldn't be just a value anymore. It could be some new category value +, or they could make it complimentary for CBR guests and charge a fee for rides at Pop/AoA (Disney has had a number of guest surveys recently about paid premium transportation).

Regarding capacity, take the London system as an example. The carriages fit 10 passengers each and depart every 15 seconds which is a capacity of 2,400 guests per hour. How many people fit on a bus, 50? So that system would have the capacity of ~45-50 buses, which only depart once every 20 minutes.

I just feel it's too close-- a mere 1,600 feet or so -- to not tie in to an additional 4,864 rooms. How much would that cost incrementally?

Agree the proximity is too close not to take advantage of it. However I disagree with putting any type of spur into AoA. Reason being you would move the station into AoA, as you have a "stop" in the new part of CBR anyway. You would simply loop it through AoA, it would be more efficient.

I think you get a walkway from AoA and nothing more. Yes it's a long haul from the south end of AoA, but it's a value, they don't cater the luxuries to that segment. Maybe a shuttle bus.

 

[aoconnor]

I do wonder if this will be free for anyone or if they will consider this "premium transportation". Resort guests don't get a break on the express bus system they just rolled out and still have to pay extra. I suppose it could be "free" for the DVC resort if they roll it into maintenance fees.

 

[sachilles]

I think it will be free*. Now that doesn't mean they won't restrict use at certain times. Maybe you have to be a specific resort guest to board at certain times. Even just an active magic band.
Of course they'll want to promote traffic to resort restaurants if it has fireworks views etc.

 

[rteetz]

I do wonder if this will be free for anyone or if they will consider this "premium transportation". Resort guests don't get a break on the express bus system they just rolled out and still have to pay extra. I suppose it could be "free" for the DVC resort if they roll it into maintenance fees.

The rumors indicate this will be open to everyone. It would be hard to limit this since its outside the parks. The express bus system is inside the parks and more limited.

 

[DBDiz]

I can see Disney upscaling CBR to Deluxe or Deluxe-Lite with the new tower and other construction, and taking Pop and AoA up to Moderate or Moderate-Lite by adding a table service restaurant and upgrading the main pool areas. Pop and AoA are already the two most expensive Value resorts, it wouldn't be a stretch to move them up a category to replace CBR.

You maximize your profit potential for three resorts, while eliminating the Value resorts getting perks other Values wouldn't get.

 

[skier_pete]

I can see Disney upscaling CBR to Deluxe or Deluxe-Lite with the new tower and other construction, and taking Pop and AoA up to Moderate or Moderate-Lite by adding a table service restaurant and upgrading the main pool areas. Pop and AoA are already the two most expensive Value resorts, it wouldn't be a stretch to move them up a category to replace CBR.

You maximize your profit potential for three resorts, while eliminating the Value resorts getting perks other Values wouldn't get.

The problem with trying to call Pop a "moderate" because of park access is it still has thousands of tiny rooms. Even calling CBR a "deluxe" of any form is not realistic. It's barely moderate in some ways.

 

[DBDiz]

The problem with trying to call Pop a "moderate" because of park access is it still has thousands of tiny rooms. Even calling CBR a "deluxe" of any form is not realistic. It's barely moderate in some ways.

I can see your point, but until two years ago CBR didn't even have queen sized beds. Room size won't account for much if there's amenities to compensate.

 

[sachilles]

Lockedoutlogic is going to have a lot of catching up to do when he gets back from vacation.

 

[LSLS]

I hear you, but maybe it wouldn't be just a value anymore. It could be some new category value +, or they could make it complimentary for CBR guests and charge a fee for rides at Pop/AoA (Disney has had a number of guest surveys recently about paid premium transportation).

Regarding capacity, take the London system as an example. The carriages fit 10 passengers each and depart every 15 seconds which is a capacity of 2,400 guests per hour. How many people fit on a bus, 50? So that system would have the capacity of ~45-50 buses, which only depart once every 20 minutes.

I just feel it's too close-- a mere 1,600 feet or so -- to not tie in to an additional 4,864 rooms. How much would that cost incrementally?

You could end up with an issue at CBR this way though. You are going to have people from the Values unloading at CBR and then needing to get into the CBR line to head out onto the next set. Unless this becomes almost like it's own hub not connected to CBR (just thought of that looking at the map again).

That said, I think you would almost need to include more hotels to make this viable. If the numbers I have seen are right, the DVC on average are adding somewhere around 300-400 rooms. Keep in mind this is taking out a chunk of rooms for CBR as well, so I would say at an absolute max you add 300 rooms (more likely you are closer to even). That puts CBR at 2400 rooms. So, why is that important? Well, The boat loop consists of almost 4700 rooms, and the monorail loop consists of almost 3100. That is a lot less rooms to add some significant transportation for, and while you can charge a good deal more for the DVC as has been mentioned, I'm not sure you can for the rest of the moderates there. My guess is this is why there is talk of trying to get other resorts involved (even at value).

Also, if I remember correctly, the difference between value and moderate is not just amenities, there is a pretty significant size of room difference as well.

 

[mcd2745]

Lockedoutlogic is going to have a lot of catching up to do when he gets back from vacation.

I'm sure he'll come back and simply post...TOTS.

 

[beer dave]

This is seeming to be a pretty big deal. My bet is on only connecting to CBT with one loading station, having a short or short ish walk for the balance of CBR.... and two separate lines-- one to epcot and one to HS. Three loading stations in all, unless you consider there are two at CBT-- then it is four.

So many years of hearing "they will never build any new type of transportation system again because it is less costly to add buses"...

 

[beer dave]

I think the difficulty there is you can't have two gondola routes merging into one Gondola route - unless you have HALF the cars coming into the station do the two routes. It would be a tricky mix. I suppose it is possible to have a separate line there, but the outbuilding seems to small for that.

I can't find the original overlay drawing with the new tower, but I THINK the tower already skews over towards that building. My guess is it will be within a very short walk of that building - if not an extension off the building right to the tower.

.

I was thinking two lines running through the building.

The original drawing is only on magic-- I had to sign up to be able to view it. And yes it does seem that the tower is not in line with the back side of the building as I was supposing-- more in line with the the epcot side. There is a separation in the side of the tower looking like a possible path heading that direction, as someone else has stated. We will see.

On page one of this thread thread there is a link to the source.