Obama supporters! - A positive place to talk about his campaign

[DISUNC]

He's talking about the difference in delegates. Pennsylvania has 158 delegates (not counting supers). If she wins 60%, she gets 95, Obama gets 63. She gets 32 more.

He's using this counter:
http://www.slate.com/features/delegatecounter/

PA has 187 delegates. Not gonna debate this here, but he is having "Fun" with numbers.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/PA-D.phtml

 

[JennyMominRI]

This guy "theories" have way tooooooooo many holes. He needs a new calculator!

For instance he says "Then on April 22, the big one, Pennsylvania—and it's a Hillary blowout, 60-40, with Clinton picking up a whopping 32 delegates"

How in HECK does he figure that out????

PA has 187 Delegates. If Hillary gets 60% then she gets 112 Delegates, by my math...not 32!

There are 158 delegates up for grabs..The others are superdelegates.

That is not saying she would ONLY get 32 delegates, but that she would get 32 MORE than Obama

 

[Laura]

PA has 187 delegates. Not gonna debate this here, but he is having "Fun" with numbers.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/PA-D.phtml

Total delegates, yes, but the superdelegates aren't determined by the voters. Basically, Hillary has a lot of ground to make up to get the lead.

Check this out too: http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/29/delegate.counter/index.html

 

[DISUNC]

There are 158 delegates up for grabs..The others are superdelegates.

That is not saying she would ONLY get 32 delegates, but that she would get 32 MORE than Obama

I agree with that, but THAT is not what he said or even alluded too. I do agree that the delagate count will be very very close. It will only take 2025 for someone to get the nom.

 

[Laura]

I agree with that, but THAT is not what he said or even alluded too.

That is what he was saying. She picks up 32 delegates means she gets 32 more.

Essentially, Hillary's in a hole she won't really be able to dig out of. It doesn't seem like much, 135 pledged delegates is the difference between Barack and Hillary, but with the way the races are likely to play out, she won't get the lead in pledged delegates. And if the supers will vote the way the voters wish (in other words, who has more pledged delegates), then Barack wins.

 

[JennyMominRI]

That is what he was saying. She picks up 32 delegates means she gets 32 more.

Yup, this is the standard terminology used...She Picked up what 4 delegates in RI but actually won 8..
Picked up means how much closer she is in th delegate count to Obama..
She won Texas but he actually likely picked up delegates

 

[DISUNC]

Total delegates, yes, but the superdelegates aren't determined by the voters. Basically, Hillary has a lot of ground to make up to get the lead.

Check this out too: http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/29/delegate.counter/index.html

YUP she does have alot of 'catching up' to do....NO DOUBT about that. BUT it is still doable. He is basing his numbers on..."what ifs". I can easily write the same article scewed towards Hillary.

She will need a REALLY big win in PA, which is very possible.
But that isnt until the end of April. ANYTHING can happen until then.

 

[ckay87]

I'm from PA and was initially kind of bummed that my vote for Obama in a primary wouldn't really matter (thinking things would be decided by April 22.)

My how times have changed, huh? I expect I'll be able to go out and see him speak after all.

 

[chris1gill]

He is basing his numbers on..."what ifs". I can easily write the same article scewed towards Hillary.

I'll look forward to reading it then....

 

[Laura]

YUP she does have alot of 'catching up' to do....NO DOUBT about that. BUT it is still doable. He is basing his numbers on..."what ifs". I can easily write the same article scewed towards Hillary.

He was skewing the upcoming results for Hillary, that was the whole point. Even if she wins big, she won't get the pledged delegate lead.

 

[Laugh O. Grams]

Anyone send any money to the campaign lately? After last night, I sent another $500 and bought one of those khaki t-shirts that has Barack's face on it this morning before coming into work. I plan on wearing it in WDW in a couple weeks. We're going with friends from our old neighborhood in NYC March 17-21st.

 

[Fitswimmer]

Anyone send any money to the campaign lately? After last night, I sent another $500 and bought one of those khaki t-shirts that has Barack's face on it this morning before coming into work. I plan on wearing it in WDW in a couple weeks. We're going with friends from our old neighborhood in NYC March 17-21st.

he gets $$ every month from me....

I have a "Got Hope" T, my window sign, my buttons and my white HOPE bracelet...

 

[lilyv]

From Obama's email update, today:

"Our projections show the most likely outcome of yesterday's elections will be that Hillary Clinton gained 187 delegates, and we gained 183.

That's a net gain of 4 delegates out of more than 370 delegates available from all the states that voted.

For comparison, that's less than half our net gain of 9 delegates from the District of Columbia alone. It's also less than our net gain of 8 from Nebraska, or 12 from Washington State. And it's considerably less than our net gain of 33 delegates from Georgia.

The task for the Clinton campaign yesterday was clear. In order to have a plausible path to the nomination, they needed to score huge delegate victories and cut into our lead.

They failed.

It's clear, though, that Senator Clinton wants to continue an increasingly desperate, increasingly negative -- and increasingly expensive -- campaign to tear us down.

That's her decision. But it's not stopping John McCain, who clinched the Republican nomination last night, from going on the offensive. He's already made news attacking Barack, and that will only become more frequent in the coming days.

Right now, it's essential for every single supporter of Barack Obama to step up and help fight this two-front battle. In the face of attacks from Hillary Clinton and John McCain, we need to be ready to take them on."

 

[Crankyshank]

I'm from PA and was initially kind of bummed that my vote for Obama in a primary wouldn't really matter (thinking things would be decided by April 22.)

My how times have changed, huh? I expect I'll be able to go out and see him speak after all.

Isn't it exciting? Even though he lost my state yesterday, it was such a thrill and privilege to go out and vote in a primary knowing my vote mattered. (even if I had to do a provisional vote because my board of elections screwed me over)

 

[JARNJ3]

...and we all continue to compalin about them. I just see that now, there are a few who are less negitive on the super process, saying, well, let's just see how this plays out now.

I understand that the Democratic system has been set up from day one, and I'm 100% for playing by the rules. If Hillary loses the delegate count but wins the nomination because the supers throw support her way, and to be honest, that's the only way it appears that she can win now, I will still proudly pull the lever for her come November. No hard feelings to be sure. I'd just prefer to be pulling the lever for my man, Barack.

Oh, and as far as showing you the love, I was wondering when you guys noticed that quite a few of us came over and congratulated Hillary on the Clinton Thread last night. I think we all should start taking steps to insure you guys that all Obama supporters aren't cocky, Clinton bashers. I'd say if anything, those folks are in the very small minority...

Thank you for your kind response.

Some of us Hillary "folk" took exception to some Obama "folk" calling for Clinton to withdraw - when we all knew or hoped she was going to have a big night again. We are "for" her - not against Obama - but sometime that line is blurred when "we" feel insulted or slighted (I put "we" in quotes, as I really don't speak for all Clinton supporters.

I for one noticed the Obama supporter well wishes - but I must confess - a thought ran through my mind when I read them - are these sincere or meant to be sarcastic? I think I'm starting to realize who the Clinton bashers (and by extension Clinton supporter bashers) are and who they aren't.

What we all have to realize is that the Democratic party has broken into two distinctive groups - and we all need to find a way to co-exist, so we can come together to support the chosen candidate in November!

 

[JARNJ3]

I'd be insulted too. I think it's sad that people wouldn't vote for him if he were a Muslim.

I don't normally consider myself a prejudiced person per se - but this comment and line of thread got to me thinking.

Unfortunately - I would think twice before voting for a Muslim. Said Muslim would have to totally discount and be very local about how horrible those extremists and al qaeda types were - before I'd vote for him.

After 9\11 - what annoyed me about current famous muslims was the fact that they were not denouncing bin Laden, the taliban or the restrictive Saudis from the roof tops.

This makes me sad to say - but its the only group I had reservations about. Wait I take that back. I probably wouldn't vote for an evangelical Christian either...... so the common theme for me is religion. I'd have to be assured of the separation of church and state.

I will now leave the Obama thread......... I promise!

 

[chris1gill]

I don't normally consider myself a prejudiced person per se - but this comment and line of thread got to me thinking.

Unfortunately - I would think twice before voting for a Muslim. Said Muslim would have to totally discount and be very local about how horrible those extremists and al qaeda types were - before I'd vote for him.

After 9\11 - what annoyed me about current famous muslims was the fact that they were not denouncing bin Laden, the taliban or the restrictive Saudis from the roof tops.

This makes me sad to say - but its the only group I had reservations about. Wait I take that back. I probably wouldn't vote for an evangelical Christian either...... so the common theme for me is religion. I'd have to be assured of the separation of church and state.

I will now leave the Obama thread......... I promise!

I have Pakistani friends in Pakistan, I can guarantee you they were horrified by what happened here, and they were deeply remorseful that someone hijacked their religion and used it for such terrible purposes.. Pakistan is a scary place in places, many places, but only by a minority of people.... the vast majority of Pakistani's wish us no harm.

Now onto the good news, Obama is on the cover of Rolling Stone tomorrow! The article is a tremendous look into his organizational skills and those volunteers who have been on the ground for a year....


http://www.rollingstone.com/news/coverstory/19106326

 

[chris1gill]

I see poll numbers of Pennsylvania all over the news, but there is an upcoming Wyoming caucus and Mississippi primary, does anyone know if there are poll numbers for these states?

 

[lilyv]

Jonathan Alter lays it on the line-the numbers don't add up for Clinton. He spells it out, state by state.

Hillary’s New Math Problem
Tuesday's big wins? The delegate calculus just got worse

...."So no matter how you cut it, Obama will almost certainly end the primaries with a pledged delegate lead, courtesy of all those landslides in February. What happens then? Will Democrats come together before the Denver Convention opens in late August?

We know that Clinton is unlikely to quit. This will leave it up to the superdelegates to figure out how to settle on a nominee. With 205 already committed to Obama, he would need another 200 uncommitted superdelegates to get to the magic number of 2025 delegates needed to nominate. But that's only under my crazy pro-Hillary projections. More likely, Obama would need about 50-100 of the approximately 500 uncommitted superdelegates, which shouldn't be too difficult.

But let's say all the weeks of negative feeling have taken a toll. Let's say that Clinton supporters are feeling embittered and inclined to sit on their hands. It's not too hard to imagine prominent superdelegates asking Obama to consider putting Hillary on the ticket.

This might be the wrong move for him. A national-security choice like Sen. Jim Webb, former senator Sam Nunn or retired general Anthony Zinni could make more sense. But if Obama did ask Clinton, don't assume she would say no just because she has, well, already served as de facto vice president for eight years under her husband. (Sorry, Al).....

"How about Clinton-Obama? Nope. The Clintonites can spin to their heart's content about how big March 4 was for them. How close the race is. How they've got the Big Mo now.

Tell it to Slate's Delegate Calculator. Again."

http://www.newsweek.com/id/119010/page/1

 

[Laura]

I think some Clinton supporters don't realize how deep a pledged delegate hole she's in. She'd have to win every upcoming state with more than 55% of the vote to get a pledged delegate lead. The superdels have to make up less of a difference for Obama to get to the magic number.