Need Advise on Buying Resale

[Sandisw]

I think that the part of this story that is missing is that 200 points doesnt get you nearly as far AT BLT as it does AT SSR or OKW...so thats something you need to factor in to your overall vacation budget as well..

I do find all of the price increases Disney is planning for Dec 1st to be interesting in light of the potential resale rule changes...

This may be true but it also makes a difference how important savings points is in the plan.

For us, since we would not be happy staying at SSR or OKW, regardless of the points savings, we spent the money to buy BLT. But, for our family, where we stay is the most important priority so it made no sense to save money on something we knew we would not be happy with in the long run.

It is definitely something that everyone needs to consider as part of their research and decide on what makes the most sense for them. For us, having a home resort we loved outweighed saving money or maximizing the points value.

 

[cayman01]

I think that the part of this story that is missing is that 200 points doesnt get you nearly as far AT BLT as it does AT SSR or OKW...so thats something you need to factor in to your overall vacation budget as well..

I do find all of the price increases Disney is planning for Dec 1st to be interesting in light of the potential resale rule changes...

No it doesn't because you can use those BLT points at any resort and they will cost the same. That's why I said a 200 point vacation not a week's stay. Let's say you want to stay at a 1 bedroom BLT MK view for 4th of July week.
That's 361 points using the different resorts here is what you actually are paying using my original numbers:

BLT $2112
SSR 2137
VGC 2144
OKW '57 2296
OKW '42 2379
AKV 2401
HHI 2574
VWL 2689
BWV 2725
BCV 2830
VB 2859

But you want more bang for your buck? How about three weeks at AKV at Concierge level studio ( good luck getting that ressie ) in September. That's 357 points and guess what? The cost chart is virtually the same (357 pts vs. 361).

Use the numbers and you'll know exactly how much that vacation is really costing you and what is really the cheapest resort.

 

[LisaS]

Won't be announced at the meeting, Disney doesn't want the confrontation. They will make it affective on a certain date, then announce that it already happened.

Bill

I agree. It will be announced as "effective immediately" and spun as another "enhancement".

 

[mch04049]

Rumors have been swirling for some time now that DVC will set up a two-tier system with different rules for resale points vs points purchased directly from Disney. There have been several threads on this topic with some folks speculating that new rules will be announced soon, possibly at the association meeting in early December.

There have been a few threads on this topic but here are two that the Search function turned up:
http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=2556970
http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=2558248

Initially it sounded like typical sales scare tactics but several people have reported hearing this in the past few weeks so it's sounding more plausible now.

I can see no valid reason to this as everybody that stays there is a paying customer. Why would you buy something you can't sell later. I don't think Disney would like to pay all the dues if everyone defaulted which they are going through right now with foreclosures. If it were of no value people would just walk away and the financial risk would increase for Disney dramaticaly. Also seems like a monopoly to me with two tier restrictions as resale would be of no value.

 

[Lil' Grumpy]

i see all kinds of valid reasons.

..while everyone may be paying, not everybody pays the same
costs. the old adage, "get what you pay for."

due to the economy, opened the door for the rush toward resales.
who doesn't like to pay less, get more? over the past summer,
many boasted & a few taunted the guides vs paying less through
resales. wonder if during meetings this frustrations from guides
was brought up?

monopoly? disney "is" & always will be . the family best vacation
designation, in the world. this fact, changes their timeshare
into "the vacation club." * while that is just my opinion, it
effected us..that we did not considered any other.

sales/resales. we didn't buy with this in mind, either. most- i think
never did, only because of the economy are selling. some
posting here talked about how painful it "is" just to consider doing
so. from the begining, we divided our contacts, not for resales
but for our children.

there are tons of options that dvc could do. i think they need
changes to reflect the new market. dvc growth is different
than it was with just 2 resorts. and why should dvc sit back
& allow outside companies make profits when a few restrictions
will redirect that monies back to them? [ how much? sales
from these other time-sales company are disney dvc? i don't know,
but guess would be very, very high]

no matter, those restrictions coming, there will still be a resales
market aimed @ disney, because it "is" disney.

now if i had a voice, i expect to have top choice @ my home
resort/s. i also like to see new changes where owners can
work together instead all these renters. [ we didn't buy to rent. &
i don't like reading how some renters boasting. also some
of the damages @ blt, were done by renters who don't give any
second thought since they don't pay dues.]

dvc , because it "is" disney, , will always have the x-factor.

 

[JimMIA]

Rumors have been swirling for some time now that DVC will set up a two-tier system with different rules for resale points vs points purchased directly from Disney.

Well...I don't have any super-secret inside info -- and IF I did, I'd be sworn to say I didn't -- but any rumor initially started by out-of -work timeshare salesmen now working and starving for DVC, and repeated in more than one DIS thread, is proof positive for me...rotfl2

That said, there really are two issues.

One -- will some change actually occur?

Two -- will any changes have REAL value to direct purchasers...or will they be something that DVC can change at the swipe of a pen at any time?

Stop and think about that last one. Would there be real changes to the program for direct buyers? Or would there just be modifications to program benefits/perks that DVC could eliminate at any moment?

"Pssstttt...listen up! We're going to give you FREE banana:) valet parking!!!"

Poof!

 

[DougEMG]

Hold on a second, all is not lost! It needs to be understood that resale is NOT always the cheapest way to go ESPECIALLY OVER THE LONG TERM! Why you ask? Maintenance Fees. They will eat away all your upfront savings and more over the term of your contract, even at SSR.

Here is an example:

To find out your actual cost per point for a vacation THIS YEAR ( it will change each year as MF's go up and years left on contract go down) use this formula:

Price Paid per Point/ Years Left on Contract + MF's/pt = Actual Cost pp

Right now Disney has an incentive for BLT for 250 points of $18 off pp and a $750 GC. So you actually pay $99 per point ( a very good deal). Your actual cost per point for this year is 99/50 + 3.87 or $5.85/point.

Now let's head to the resale market and get a "cheap" SSR contract. Let's say we pay $64/pt INCLUDING closing costs. The actual cost per point for this year is 64/44 + 4.46 or (drumroll please) $5.91/point.

Yes, in this example BLT is actually slightly cheaper than SSR. So a 200 point vacation using BLT points actually costs you $1170 vs. $1182 using SSR points.

How do the other resorts stack up? Here's a list:

OKW '42: 55/32 + 4.87= $6.59 $1318
OKW '57: 70/47 + 4.87= $6.36 1272
BWV: 70/32 + 5.36= $7.55 1510
AKV: 80/47 + 4.95= $6.65 1330
BCV: 86/32 + 5.15= $7.84 1468
VWL: 72/32 + 5.20= $7.45 1490
VGC: 100/50 + 3.94= $5.94 1188
HHI: 50/32 + 5.57= $7.13 1426
VB: 42/32 + 6.61= $7.92 1584

I tried to lowball the price paid per point and added $3 for closing costs. The actual cost will very according to price paid per point, but this gives you a good idea of what you actual cost is for a 200 point vacation. BLT, VGC, and SSR are the least expensive by a good amount. VB, BWV and VWL are the most expensive.

Also remember that price is not the only consideration. It matters not that BLT and SSR are the cheapest if you don't like staying there. Yes you can stay at other resorts but you might not always get what you want. The bigger the resort the easier it is to book at 7 months. For example, you might
buy BLT and stay at AKV and save around $150 per 200 point vacation. Conversely, you could by at SSR but have a difficult time getting BCV or VWL at 7 months because they are so small.

If you like BLT get it now. These are the best incentives I've seen in awhile.If you don't like BLT wait til after the smoke clears from possible changes and then buy resale.

This was one of the calculations I did when looking at buying and BLT and SSR came out extremely close in costs.

What made the difference for me was:

• I got a fully loaded SSR contract for $60/point
• Didn't have the funds to pay for that many points upfront at BLT

Which is why I ended up going with SSR.

 

[DVC SSR Owner]

Remeber too that BLT dues are partly subsidized now and ssr are not. We got our SSR contract at $55 pp and $0 closing costs this year for 200 points October use year and I don't see the math of paying $120-$130 pp for BLT over $55 pp for SSR. I got 13 2009, 200 2010, and 200 2011-12 points. Can you do the math on this?

 

[Safari Queen]

Timeshare Store gave me great advice on what to offer based on current sales.

 

[cayman01]

Remeber too that BLT dues are partly subsidized now and ssr are not. We got our SSR contract at $55 pp and $0 closing costs this year for 200 points October use year and I don't see the math of paying $120-$130 pp for BLT over $55 pp for SSR. I got 13 2009, 200 2010, and 200 2011-12 points. Can you do the math on this?

Right now you can get 200 BLT points for $108 + $500 GC so cost is $105.50.
A December UY gets you 200 2009 , 200 2010, 200 2011 points.

105.5/50 + 3.78 = $5.89

Your SSR contract:

55/44 + 4.46 = $5.71

So your 200 point vacation would be $36 cheaper using your SSR points.

However, you still have 200 extra BLT points. You could rent them for $10/pt to lower your costs or have an extra Disney vacation. You also have 6 extra years of vacations with BLT plus , for many, a more desirable location. the numbers do not vary very much. Renting those points lowers your point cost by 20 cents. SSR and BLT will remain the best value buys for awhile along with VGC. At least until their MF's catch up to the other resorts.

 

[jsivigny]

Is there a missing component in the above math?...Opportunity Cost. In the above example, the Initial Cost at BLT for a 200 Point contract is 200 * $105/point = $21,000 The SSR Resale Contract is 200 * $55/point = $11,000. So there is a $10,000 savings in up front costs. Assume a modest interest rate of 4% on that money and you earn $400 per year in interest, compounded annually. You could then divide the $400 dollars by 200 points and you net a $2 per point benefit at SSR on the money you saved up front. So SSR could look like this...

$55/44 + $4.46 dues - $2 (Opportunity Cost Savings) = $3.71 per point for SSR....Using your example.

Not sure if this makes sense, but the lower up front costs for SSR vs BLT should somehow be accounted for.

 

[DVC SSR Owner]

Also, what are the closing costs on BLT with that deal? I don't want a December use year.

 

[dianeschlicht]

I agree. It will be announced as "effective immediately" and spun as another "enhancement".

I agree, and I'm starting to hate the word "enhancement".

 

[lisareniff]

Eck! Not another enhacement!!

Should have realized! I was assuming it would have to brought up at the annual meeting. I wasn't thinking of an enhancement announcement!

 

[DVC SSR Owner]

Maybe enhancement could be changed to enchantment or entrapment? Does pre-owned make a car less used? Lol

 

[Jason@dvcstore]

Does pre-owned make a car less used? Lol

Jason

 

[cayman01]

Is there a missing component in the above math?...Opportunity Cost. In the above example, the Initial Cost at BLT for a 200 Point contract is 200 * $105/point = $21,000 The SSR Resale Contract is 200 * $55/point = $11,000. So there is a $10,000 savings in up front costs. Assume a modest interest rate of 4% on that money and you earn $400 per year in interest, compounded annually. You could then divide the $400 dollars by 200 points and you net a $2 per point benefit at SSR on the money you saved up front. So SSR could look like this...

$55/44 + $4.46 dues - $2 (Opportunity Cost Savings) = $3.71 per point for SSR....Using your example.

Not sure if this makes sense, but the lower up front costs for SSR vs BLT should somehow be accounted for.

A lot of people talk about opportunity costs when looking at these numbers like this. But they really cannot be properly measured. How do you know you're going to get a positive return? what if your return is -4%?

Also, very few actually implement this idea or think about it for that matter. People are buying a lifetime vacation the only question is how much they want to pay upfront in my example. If you can afford the upfront cash of BLT or VGC you come out ahead.

 

[andycat]

Getting back to the original issue of this thread, I think CheetoGuido's unasked question is, where are the "for sale by owner" sites? I have no knock on the Timeshare Store and appreciate their support, but it's seems like there would be some owners who want to avoid the commission, and presumably would pass along some of those savings. I'm not trying to start a debate about the pros and cons (and certainly there are many more than just price), but it seems like there aren't a lot of DVC FSBOs.

And to give the the conspiracy theorists something to chew on, I don't see that anyone has brought up the new California Coast DVC property: http://www.wdwnewstoday.com/2010/11/04/disney-vacation-club-slips-on-disneys-california-coast-hotel/. (This is somewhat tongue-in-cheek - I don't know that this is exactly a reliable source...)

 

[jsivigny]

A lot of people talk about opportunity costs when looking at these numbers like this. But they really cannot be properly measured. How do you know you're going to get a positive return? what if your return is -4%?

Also, very few actually implement this idea or think about it for that matter. People are buying a lifetime vacation the only question is how much they want to pay upfront in my example. If you can afford the upfront cash of BLT or VGC you come out ahead.

Agreed...over the life of the contract, the differences are negligible. It you can't afford the upfront cash, then at least there are options. Other factors not even mentioned include price increase and inflation. I have no idea how to account for those.

 

[psac]

Additionally, the comparison math assumes a full life of contract comparison, e.g., 44 years for SSR and 50 years for BLT. If I have no intention of still taking vacations 50 years from now, that far end of the ownership is meaningless.