March 2022 Direct Sales

[CaptainAmerica]

They have sold just under 42% so about 3.5 million, give or take.

I don't know anything about anything, but that strikes me as shockingly bad.

 

[Sandisw]

Thanks for the info. If there is less that half of the points sold, how are reservations still so tight there? Does something change as points are sold? Like are rooms moved from cash to dvc? When it sells out there will be no availability.

They have only declared 167 of the rooms into the association. The rest are still owned by DVD and used for cash.

As they declare more points, and the rooms, it opens up to match. Right now, it is tight because those who have bought there stay there or lots of people want to trade into the resort at 7 months.

 

[Sandisw]

I don't know anything about anything, but that strikes me as shockingly bad.

Considering the pandemic and current state of affairs, it’s not. Prior to the closure, it had some of the best numbers for DVD and was selling comparable to others 11 months in. 6.7 million points is a lot of points to sell. Even if it was selling 125K a month..which would be high..thats 54 months. We are just at 36 months…with two months of no sales.

It is also a different product so you have to expect it to sell differently. IMO, I think DVD has been fine with sales to this point because prices have gone up and incentives have, for the most part, gone down

Having said all that, VGF going back into active sales will be a test against it in today’s environment as well as what new buyers want..and those are the buyers I think are most important to DVD.

DVD has slightly better incentives for RIV than VGF, even though it has a longer date. But, it does have higher MFs too and of course restections.

Points charts are comparable with VGF being a bit more. So, pretty nice choices for a buyer depending on what is wanted.

Now, if RIV stays stagnant in sales or continues to decline, then I think DVD could become worried. But, until now, too many other variables to say it wasn’t great. It has been holding its own.

 

[sndral]

They have sold just under 42% so about 3.5 million, give or take.

The article linked in the first post states “Disney has sold 2,782,300 or 41.3% of Riviera’s 6.7 million points.”

 

[Sandisw]

The article linked in the first post states “Disney has sold 2,782,300 or 41.3% of Riviera’s 6.7 million points.”

Thanks…too early for math..I got the % part pretty close…I fixed it!

 

[larry47591]

Thanks for the info. If there is less that half of the points sold, how are reservations still so tight there? Does something change as points are sold? Like are rooms moved from cash to dvc? When it sells out there will be no availability.

Because only a part of the resort is declared which means the rest is cash bookings basically no different then non dvc. So not in inventory for dvc members yet

 

[BrianLo]

Interesting information! RIV went down. Could this finally give DVD some valid data to compare a resort with restrictions and one without? I think if they see the same thing happen to RIV in comparison to VGF in April when new buyers have a choice, maybe we will see DVD backtrack on some level of resale restrictions???

As an interesting counterpoint that does not get brought up, I just bought VGF direct.

If Disney did away with restrictions, I would have bought something else resale. Probably more SSR.

So it goes both ways. If RIV was a smaller resort and came back on sale in a few years, I imagine it would do gangbusters, simply because the resale contracts are materially worse, the direct ones would still be desirable.

 

[sndral]

Considering the pandemic and current state of affairs, it’s not. Prior to the closure, it had some of the best numbers for DVD and was selling comparable to others 11 months in. 6.7 million points is a lot of points to sell. Even if it was selling 125K a month..which would be high..thats 54 months. We are just at 36 months…with two months of no sales.

It is also a different product so you have to expect it to sell differently. IMO, I think DVD has been fine with sales to this point because prices have gone up and incentives have, for the most part, gone down

Having said all that, VGF going back into active sales will be a test against it in today’s environment as well as what new buyers want..and those are the buyers I think are most important to DVD.

DVD has slightly better incentives for RIV than VGF, even though it has a longer date. But, it does have higher MFs too and of course restections.

Points charts are comparable with VGF being a bit more. So, pretty nice choices for a buyer depending on what is wanted.

Now, if RIV stays stagnant in sales or continues to decline, then I think DVD could become worried. But, until now, too many other variables to say it wasn’t great. It has been holding its own.

This post piqued my curiosity, so I did a bit of a deep dive and found this article
https://dvcnews.com/other-resources...ring-early-sales-for-riviera-to-other-resorts
Comparing the first 65 days of sales & subsequent average per month sales
VGF1 (sold 6/2013-4/2015) 280,991 averaged 104,595 per month
Riv. (sold 4/2019 -present) 187,336 averaging* 77,286 per month
Poly (2/2015 - 8/2017) 126,382 averaged 110,688 per month
CCV (4/2017 - 5/2019) 64,999 averaged 111,139 per month
*This number is my average of total points sold at Riviera for the last 36 months, if we subtract out 2 months for when WDW was closed the average is 81,832 per month.
It appears to me that Riviera started out w/ strong numbers, for example in it’s 9th month of sales - Dec. of 2019 it sold 121,869 points https://www.dvcnews.com/dvc-program...propels-dvc-to-best-december-sales-in-8-years but it was never on pace to match VGF1’s best month of 226,439 (July 2013.) https://www.dvcnews.com/dvc-program/financial/news-34867/4677-direct-sales-2010-decade-recap
Riviera then suffered depressed sales thanks to the pandemic. It had started to inch back up selling over 80,000 points per month recently https://www.dvcnews.com/dvc-program...256-direct-sales-inch-upward-in-february-2022 but now will have competition from VGF.

 

[J-Dog]

Selfishly I want the Poly tower to be new and restricted.

It might be selfish, but I bet many RIV owners feel the same way.

I would rather have the restrictions removed, but more resorts with similar restrictions is the next best thing.

 

[Bjaiken77]

With VGF only being sold to current owners, way to early to make anything out of the depressed sales other than it did go down in comparison of the trend it had been experiencing.

The test will be the next few months. The other piece to watch for though is in relation to the expiration date. If VGF sales do seem to take away from RIV and not just add to totals, it may very well lead DVD to not only keep the restrictions but also make Poly tower new with an end date ti match current PVB because the shorter than 50 years didn’t stop people from buying.

I honestly don’t think we will see the reversal and that both DLT and Poly tower will have them.

They were trying to change the product with restrictions and I think it will take a lot to change course. That’s why we have to see how they go against each other when new buyers have the same choice.

Selfishly I want the Poly tower to be new and restricted.

I’m ok if future resorts are restricted. In fact, that’s what we were told they were trending toward. Now, VGF2 comes into play, which is great and I bought points. Next, they are building the Poly tower.

We jumped into the direct waters because we knew we want points we could spend at future restricted resorts. As an aside, we also love RIV, so that made it easier. But, IMO, it’s wrong to restrict one resort and go on to list multiple other resorts as unrestricted, even if you cut their usage year to less than 50.

I don’t care what the game is: I can always adjust. Just let me know the rules and be consistent. Honestly, I don’t want any resorts to be restricted. Poly, DLT, or RIV. I hate tiering rules in the first place.

 

[Bjaiken77]

It might be selfish, but I bet many RIV owners feel the same way.

I would rather have the restrictions removed, but more resorts with similar restrictions is the next best thing.

Yeah, this is kind of the way I feel. I own RIV points and wasn’t bothered enough to not buy because I felt like this was the way going forward. But yes, my preference is no restrictions. The only thing I REALLY hate is the lack of consistent messaging. You either are or are not moving forward with resale restrictions.

 

[nuhusky123]

My prediction for poly2 = restrictions identical to riv and a new association

 

[Sandisw]

It might be selfish, but I bet many RIV owners feel the same way.

I would rather have the restrictions removed, but more resorts with similar restrictions is the next best thing.

It doesn’t have anything to do with being a RIV owner though. Resale restrictions just are no big deal for me.

For Poly tower,I want It new and restricted so I can buy there and have less competition than it being part of PVB with all resale allowed.

 

[BeachClub2014]

My prediction for poly2 = restrictions identical to riv and a new association

I agree. I'm not a big fan of the restrictions either, but you can't just have them at one resort. That makes no sense whatsoever.

 

[Sandisw]

This post piqued my curiosity, so I did a bit of a deep dive and found this article
https://dvcnews.com/other-resources...ring-early-sales-for-riviera-to-other-resorts
Comparing the first 65 days of sales & subsequent average per month sales
VGF1 (sold 6/2013-4/2015) 280,991 averaged 104,595 per month
Riv. (sold 4/2019 -present) 187,336 averaging* 77,286 per month
Poly (2/2015 - 8/2017) 126,382 averaged 110,688 per month
CCV (4/2017 - 5/2019) 64,999 averaged 111,139 per month
*This number is my average of total points sold at Riviera for the last 36 months, if we subtract out 2 months for when WDW was closed the average is 81,832 per month.
It appears to me that Riviera started out w/ strong numbers, for example in it’s 9th month of sales - Dec. of 2019 it sold 121,869 points https://www.dvcnews.com/dvc-program...propels-dvc-to-best-december-sales-in-8-years but it was never on pace to match VGF1’s best month of 226,439 (July 2013.) https://www.dvcnews.com/dvc-program/financial/news-34867/4677-direct-sales-2010-decade-recap
Riviera then suffered depressed sales thanks to the pandemic. It had started to inch back up selling over 80,000 points per month recently https://www.dvcnews.com/dvc-program...256-direct-sales-inch-upward-in-february-2022 but now will have competition from VGF.

That high VGF month was not normal. There is a great chart that shows when comparing those first 11 months, it was doing really well in comparison and had the pandemic not happened, it may have continued those strong sales as the resort had only just opened.

There is just no way to know how the shut down impacted things I think a better predictor is to use the first 11 months average.

ETA. By the end of Feb 2020, they sold 18.1% of the resort..at That pass, it would have sold out in just a little over 4 years.

@Nabas I think had the graph that shows some comparison.

 

[sndral]

That high VGF month was not normal. There is a great chart that shows when comparing those first 11 months, it was doing really well in comparison and had the pandemic not happened, it may have continued those strong sales as the resort had only just opened.

@Nabas I think had the graph?

Indeed, that July 2013 VGF1 number was ridiculous & perhaps explains why VGF1 sold out much faster than I thought it would & why by the time I was ready to commit it was gone .
I didn’t find an 11 month chart & would be interested in looking at that data too, the 9 month comparison I did find was interesting.
edited to add: found this for the Feb. 2020 11 month data https://www.dvcnews.com/dvc-program/financial/news-34867/4723-direct-sales-data-for-february-2020
& this for March 2020 https://www.dvcnews.com/dvc-program...20-the-beginning-of-a-new-era-in-direct-sales
So it appears Riviera sales were picking up steam when they hit that brick wall aka the pandemic.

 

[Nabas]

Because only a part of the resort is declared which means the rest is cash bookings basically no different then non dvc. So not in inventory for dvc members yet

Generally what happens with a new DVC resort is that people who just bought there want to stay there, and existing members at other resorts want to stay there.

The result is that a new DVC resort tends to be difficult to book until all direct points are sold and most DVC members have has a chance to try the new resort.

Longer term, a DVC resort’s difficulty to book is mostly a function of its size and mix of rooms. Large DVC resorts with lots of Studios tend to be easier to book. (Studios are the most popular type of room.)

Once sold out, the Riviera will be the 4th largest WDW DVC but it only has the 6th most Studios. As such, it probably will end up being somewhere within the middle of difficulty to book.

The Riviera’s resale restrictions could make it more difficult to book long-term. However, if the pattern at the Riviera is similar to other WDW DVC resorts, then the vast majority of Riviera buyers will have bought their points directly from Disney, even 20 years from now.

 

[Nabas]

My prediction for poly2 = restrictions identical to riv and a new association

I sure hope your prediction is wrong.

We are 100% buying at Poly Tower if it means an 11-month booking window at Poly Tower and PVB. We love the idea of being able to book either of those 2 resorts at 11 months.

We envision Poly Tower and PVB as being 2 different experiences, with Poly Tower being vaguely similar (we hope!) to the Riviera in terms of ambiance. It would be amazing to be able to book two different experiences at 11 months using the same membership! (Again, we hope! )

But if they are not in the same association, then I doubt we will buy more.

 

[kilik64]

The Riviera’s resale restrictions could make it more difficult to book long-term. However, if the pattern at the Riviera is similar to other WDW DVC resorts, then the vast majority of Riviera buyers will have bought their points directly from Disney, even 20 years from now.

Thread and your post got me thinking.

Is there any way to know or even ballpark what percent of all dvc points are still considered direct points?

Considered direct in this context meaning actual direct and any resale points that were qualified before all the restrictions

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I sure hope your prediction is wrong.

We are 100% buying at Poly Tower if it means an 11-month booking window at Poly Tower and PVB. We love the idea of being able to book either of those 2 resorts at 11 months.

We envision Poly Tower and PVB as being 2 different experiences, with Poly Tower being vaguely similar (we hope!) to the Riviera in terms of ambiance. It would be amazing to be able to book two different experiences at 11 months using the same membership! (Again, we hope! )

But if they are not in the same association, then I doubt we will buy more.

I'll probably buy if there are no restrictions, regardless of whether it's a new association or not.

(Though if they plan on dropping restrictions on new resorts, I probably will have already bought at DLT.)