March 2022 Direct Sales

[Minniemoo15]

When I was there in early March, they were DEFINITELY pushing GFV2. Even at the Riv DVC booth, the signage was all about GFV.

As for us, we were very close to purchasing GFV2, but we don’t need another MK home resort. All things being equal we would prefer to buy Riv for an Epcot area resort but I’m not playing into the restrictions game, especially if it’s left as the lone restricted resort going forward. My guide seemed like this was something he hears often enough.

Sidenote, when I mentioned the resale restrictions at one of the park booths, the CM tried to convince me if I didn’t want my Riv contract anymore I could just sell it back to Disney , easy peasy, lol.

 

[redboat45]

I want to buy if it's a new association without resale restrictions. I want the longer expiration date. Unless of course a different more enticing resort is announced before this one opens.

 

[Bjaiken77]

I’ve got enough points that we are good for all our vacations. We are going to be super selective going forward. Restrictions or no restrictions is likely the difference between me adding on a small future contract or not.

It costs Disney relatively little money to keep their policies consistent and transparent. But boy, it makes people angry when they can’t do it.

 

[tjkraz]

Great point. I bet that dip has caused some hand-wringing at DVC. It will be interesting if that dip was a one-time thing with DVC having brought GFV2 online for sales, a reflection of consumer confidence dipping, or both.

There are always practical limits to how many points DVC can sell in a month. Sales don't go from 100k to 200k to 300k in a month depending on whether they have 1, 2 or 3 resorts in active sales.

Heavily marketing 2 properties at WDW is bound to split interest between the two. There was very little chance that the marketplace suddenly expanded such that Riviera would equal the past month's sales while VGF added even more buyers.

DVC would be wise to use pricing to help balance interest between VGF and Riviera. I think we're seeing that with the unexpected reduction of incentives on March 31. DVC should want to keep VGF in active sales at least through summer 2023. It's one of the most iconic WDW resorts with great ability to attract interested buyers. Many will ultimately choose Riviera for any number of factors including lower price.

 

[Docwheeze]

Is it possible that DVC employs the restriction strategy at RIV to possibly depress the resale price and then use ROFR to buy back these contracts at a lower price and add back to inventory? Not sure this makes sense. Recent direct price increases at older resorts seem to indicate a shift in strategy. What will they do with the 2042 resorts? Is it possible to compromise that a limit of resale points such as 50 to 100 each UY be allowed for use at other resorts going forward? Think this could boost RIV as well as other sales in future.

 

[Nabas]

That high VGF month was not normal. There is a great chart that shows when comparing those first 11 months, it was doing really well in comparison and had the pandemic not happened, it may have continued those strong sales as the resort had only just opened.

There is just no way to know how the shut down impacted things I think a better predictor is to use the first 11 months average.

ETA. By the end of Feb 2020, they sold 18.1% of the resort..at That pass, it would have sold out in just a little over 4 years.

@Nabas I think had the graph that shows some comparison.

Here's the updated graph with the latest DVC direct sales numbers:



I would not read too much into it. One month does not make a pattern. On one hand, I don't think March necessarily represents a full month of VGF2 sales, and those sales were limited to existing members only. There was pent-up demand and a lot of existing members were excited about the opening price and discount. Presumably, any existing member knew that the time to buy was now, especially since Disney pre-announced that future discounts were not going to be as good. On the other hand, April probably will include some contracts that started in March but were unable to close before the end of the month. In addition, April probably will see strong VGF2 sales from first-time buyers.

It will take at least 2 or 3 more months before a pattern emerges.

Again, too many variables to say one way or another what the March numbers really mean.

 

[nuhusky123]

I sure hope your prediction is wrong.

We are 100% buying at Poly Tower if it means an 11-month booking window at Poly Tower and PVB. We love the idea of being able to book either of those 2 resorts at 11 months.

We envision Poly Tower and PVB as being 2 different experiences, with Poly Tower being vaguely similar (we hope!) to the Riviera in terms of ambiance. It would be amazing to be able to book two different experiences at 11 months using the same membership! (Again, we hope! )

But if they are not in the same association, then I doubt we will buy more.

Reason for my prediction

1- pvb doesn’t have a ton of time left and even less so when poly2 is done. So new association required

2- this is brand new construction unlike gfv2, so lots of $ to be spent

3- riv still has restrictions so dvc will want at least one more resort in their portfolio that has restrictions. Otherwise I’d argue dvc would have removed restrictions on riv if they have no intention to keep restrictions

I hope I’m wrong too, but I don’t think I will be

 

[BeachClub2014]

There are always practical limits to how many points DVC can sell in a month. Sales don't go from 100k to 200k to 300k in a month depending on whether they have 1, 2 or 3 resorts in active sales.

True. I have no idea where the ceiling might be for the number of points that can reasonably expect to be sold in a month. I also found the total points sold for the resorts other than RIV and GFV. Those add up to just over 54K, which seems pretty solid to me. That's a lot of premium dollar points being sold, even with the incentives considered.

 

[Minniemoo15]

Reason for my prediction

1- pvb doesn’t have a ton of time left and even less so when poly2 is done. So new association required

2- this is brand new construction unlike gfv2, so lots of $ to be spent

3- riv still has restrictions so dvc will want at least one more resort in their portfolio that has restrictions. Otherwise I’d argue dvc would have removed restrictions on riv if they have no intention to keep restrictions

I hope I’m wrong too, but I don’t think I will be

Poly actually has lots of time left. Poly 2.0 would have the same number of years remaining when it opens as GFV2 does, 42 years.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Reason for my prediction

1- pvb doesn’t have a ton of time left and even less so when poly2 is done. So new association required

Poly2 will have exactly the same number of years left as VGF2.

2- this is brand new construction unlike gfv2, so lots of $ to be spent

People have been dramatically overstating how "cheap" the VGF conversion was and how "expensive" a new build is.

3 - riv still has restrictions so dvc will want at least one more resort in their portfolio that has restrictions. Otherwise I’d argue dvc would have removed restrictions on riv if they have no intention to keep restrictions

I agree in theory, but there are a number of different ways this could play out.

1. Add restrictions only for full-on new resorts, not expansions of existing resorts. DLT will answer this question.

2. Drop restrictions from Riviera if they're unhappy with them.

 

[BeachClub2014]

3- riv still has restrictions so dvc will want at least one more resort in their portfolio that has restrictions. Otherwise I’d argue dvc would have removed restrictions on riv if they have no intention to keep restrictions

I tend to agree with you here. If DVC ever intends to roll back the RIV restrictions, why not do so now? The timing would seem to be right to do so with rolling GFV2 into the same association with GFV and the announcement of the Poly Tower. In this case, it feels like the silence of DVC is meaningful.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I tend to agree with you here. If DVC ever intends to roll back the RIV restrictions, why not do so now? The timing would seem to be right to do so with rolling GFV2 into the same association with GFV and the announcement of the Poly Tower. In this case, it feels like the silence of DVC is meaningful.

There's no need. DLT will be on sale before any such statement is required on Poly2.

 

[BeachClub2014]

Poly2 will have exactly the same number of years left as VGF2.

DId DVC announce that? Just curious.

 

[Ruttangel]

2- this is brand new construction unlike gfv2, so lots of $ to be spent

not all of PVB2 will be DVC some of it will be restaurants/bars/shops which pay for themselves in no time

 

[BeachClub2014]

There's no need. DLT will be on sale before any such statement is required on Poly2.

Yes, but the absence of actually removing the restrictions now speaks volumes as to their intent for the future, as they've stated. If they intend to roll back the restrictions, why keep selling RIV now with the restrictions? Many folks are hopeful, as am I, that DVC may indeed re-think this policy but we sure aren't seeing any indication of that happening.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

DId DVC announce that? Just curious.

Sorry I'm saying if PVB2 was part of the same association, it would have the same contract length as VGF2. Others are objecting, saying Disney wants to reset as a new association to sell a 50 year contract.

 

[BeachClub2014]

Sorry I'm saying if PVB2 was part of the same association, it would have the same contract length as VGF2. Others are objecting, saying Disney wants to reset as a new association to sell a 50 year contract.

Got it! Thanks for clarifying. I thought that I had missed that along the way. I am still keeping Poly Tower on my watch list for a future add-on.

 

[nuhusky123]

There's no need. DLT will be on sale before any such statement is required on Poly2.

I dont think disney land and Disney world are apples to apples

if dlt does or doesn’t have restrictions, I don’t think that gives us any clue what dvc will do in wdw

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Yes, but the absence of actually removing the restrictions now speaks volumes as to their intent for the future, as they've stated. If they intend to roll back the restrictions, why keep selling RIV now with the restrictions? Many folks are hopeful, as am I, that DVC may indeed re-think this policy but we sure aren't seeing any indication of that happening.

Oh yeah I don't think it's likely. IMO, ranked from most likely to least likely:

1. DLT has restrictions, RIV keeps restrictions, PVB2 is an expansion of PVB1 with no restrictions.

2. DLT has restrictions, RIV keeps restrictions, PVB2 is a new association with restrictions.

3. DLT has no restrictions, RIV drops restrictions, PVB2 is an expansion of PVB1 with no restrictions.

4. DLT has no restrictions, RIV drops restrictions, PVB2 is a new association with no restrictions.

 

[nuhusky123]

Poly2 will have exactly the same number of years left as VGF2.


People have been dramatically overstating how "cheap" the VGF conversion was and how "expensive" a new build is.


I agree in theory, but there are a number of different ways this could play out.

1. Add restrictions only for full-on new resorts, not expansions of existing resorts. DLT will answer this question.

2. Drop restrictions from Riviera if they're unhappy with them.

Didn’t say gfv was cheap, but it’s damn cheaper to spruce up a room Than it is to build a new building, drive in foundations, install hvac, plumbing and then furnish it