March 2022 Direct Sales

[sndral]

Oh yeah I don't think it's likely. IMO, ranked from most likely to least likely:

1. DLT has restrictions, RIV keeps restrictions, PVB2 is an expansion of PVB1 with no restrictions.

2. DLT has restrictions, RIV keeps restrictions, PVB2 is a new association with restrictions.

3. DLT has no restrictions, RIV drops restrictions, PVB2 is an expansion of PVB1 with no restrictions.

4. DLT has no restrictions, RIV drops restrictions, PVB2 is a new association with no restrictions.

5. DLT has no restrictions, Riv. keeps restrictions, PVB2 has no restrictions whether new or expansion.

No. 5 is unlikely, but there are one off oddities w/in the DVC universe. The 2 subsidized dues resorts are examples. VB was originally supposed to be larger, DVC changed it’s mind & decided not to build more units so the original pre 1/1/96 buyers pay lower dues - currently $2.53 per point lower. Aulani was flat out caught underestimating their dues by Hawaiian state regulators, had to halt sales & set accurate MFs so those contracts bought w/ the initial lower MFs pay lower dues - currently $2.15 lower. OKW w/ it’s original & extended different end dates is a head scratcher if you don’t know the history. So I’m not ruling anything out - including that DVC abandons resale restrictions at Riv going forward - but doesn’t make it retroactive to those points already sold.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

5. DLT has no restrictions, Riv. keeps restrictions, PVB2 has no restrictions whether new or expansion.

No. 5 is unlikely, but there are one off oddities w/in the DVC universe. The 2 subsidized dues resorts are examples. VB was originally supposed to be larger, DVC changed it’s mind & decided not to build more units so the original pre 1/1/96 buyers pay lower dues - currently $2.53 per point lower. Aulani was flat out caught underestimating their dues by Hawaiian state regulators, had to halt sales & set accurate MFs so those contracts bought w/ the initial lower MFs pay lower dues - currently $2.15 lower. OKW w/ it’s original & extended different end dates is a head scratcher if you don’t know the history. So I’m not ruling anything out - including that DVC abandons resale restrictions at Riv going forward - but doesn’t make it retroactive to those points already sold.

IMO this would be a recipe for never selling out RIV.

 

[BeachClub2014]

"Pulled a fast one" implies some kind of swindle. Who is the victim here? To the extent that they changed course, it seems to be to everyone's benefit.

Swindle? No, not suggesting that at all. Disingenuous, perhaps, but not a swindle. If someone bought RIV, or any other resort direct, with the belief that this route guaranteed you access to all current and future resorts then they might not see the same benefit as do folks that have purchased resale points.

 

[brazzledazzler]

Way to earlier to make the conclusion that it is restrictions that lead current owners to buy. The price impacted it as well and being part of VGF and not it’s own association.

I bought it and the lack of restrictions didn’t play a role. I’m not the only one.

Like I just posted they may have taken the data as a positive that 50 year leases are not required to sell too

I own at RIV and restrictions had no part in our decision to buy there. We understand them and love the resort. No plans to sell when we purchased, we will use them them I’m a senior citizen or let our kids have them. RIV is awesome and we’re happy.

My parents added on direct at VGF (they have 50 points resale at Poly) solely because they love the resort. Restrictions didn’t matter. My mom got enough points to book us all a few nights in December if we ever want to go together for a holiday trip and stay at VGF…otherwise they’ll be using them for their own getaways.

For my parents, Poly and VGF have nostalgia. They honeymooned at Poly and they have been visiting VGF for all the seasonal celebrations for decades.

For a lot of members, restrictions play a very small part in the purchase. They are inconvenient and not favored, but not preventing most sales for those that love RIV.

And, I love how there are so many resorts to choose from!

 

[brazzledazzler]

You're looking at an RIV owner who will definitely have questions if Poly Tower is added to the existing association.

If this was the case —and Poly tower is merged with PVB & no restrictions. Then yeah, it’s just strange to keep them on RIV. Because it’s like DVD keeps on trying to skirt their own restrictions. I mean, if all they do is build add-ons/new towers to already existing DVC properties, then they never need to apply the restrictions.

I just would prefer consistency.

Also, if they don’t want restrictions—that’s cool too. It makes resale even more appealing!

 

[BeachClub2014]

I just would prefer consistency.

Yep, me too. If restrictions are the "rule" then stick to the rule. If restrictions aren't going to be the "rule", then get rid of them everywhere.

 

[brazzledazzler]

Yep, me too. If restrictions are the "rule" then stick to the rule. If restrictions aren't going to be the "rule", then get rid of them everywhere.

Especially because now with all the new DVC expansions half of discussions (or 90%, tbh) revolve around “will there be restrictions?” And more frustratingly, DVD is pretty silent until the 11th hour.

 

[BeachClub2014]

Especially because now with all the new DVC expansions half of discussions (or 90%, tbh) revolve around “will there be restrictions?” And more frustratingly, DVD is pretty silent until the 11th hour.

The topic does make for a lively debate, though.

 

[Sandisw]

Yep, me too. If restrictions are the "rule" then stick to the rule. If restrictions aren't going to be the "rule", then get rid of them everywhere.

The only thing I will add is that they have said all along that things could change. They can remove and even put back if they want. While I agree it would be weird if RIV ended up the only one right now with them, not adding them to DLT or Poly tower wouldn't be like we didn't know it could happen.

Again, I don't see them backtracking on them with those two...and don't think that the decision for VGF was a move away from them but rather no way for them to add them without creating a studio only resort which probably wouldn't sell as well. I bet we would not have seen those VGF March sales numbers where they were if owners didn't have access to the current VGF building, even if they didn't come with restrictions.

 

[Bjaiken77]

If DLT has restrictions, I believe RIV restrictions will remain. The problem is that it’s not a fair comparison.

 

[brazzledazzler]

The topic does make for a lively debate, though.

Yes. We're all on the edge of our seats in my house.

My husband and I want a contract Poly—but is it good to buy resale or wait until the Tower is released? Without the deets from DVC, we are saving our money for the Tower and hope it's worth the wait!

 

[Aela]

As a new owner (we bought VGF2), I will say that they pushed RIV very hard. Everytime I asked something about a resort, she sent the RIV stuff again. This was after our initial face meeting where we said we were not at all interested in RIV. They were not fully explaining the resale restrictions. They were explaining as buyers the restrictions did not effect us, and we were not limited in where we used our points.

 

[JoeDisney247365]

I understand that lots of buyers do not buy Riviera direct because of the restrictions. While I considered the effect they might have on a potential resale in the future they didn't sway my decision to purchase there. To that point there are plenty of timeshares in general that are fixed week at a fixed resort (outside of DVC). Those types of timeshares are sold to people who love a certain resort and are willing to go there exclusively, I suspect that there are buyers in the market who feel that way about Riviera. My guess is most of those buyers are current members who just want Riviera points and already have the ability to book elsewhere.
To me I'm good either way with or without restrictions. With restrictions limits some of the competing for rooms at my home resort at 7 months. So if availability increases my enjoyment of it (potentially) increases. Also these restrictions (potentially) limits some of the competing for rooms at new resorts at 7 months where I don't have the 11 month advantage. Without restrictions eliminates that advantage (potentially) but increases resale value (potentially). Having an exit strategy is important with something like this, even when you don't ever plan to sell, which is why we broke our larger contract into smaller ones. I think if I didn't really love Riviera than I would have placed more emphasis on the restrictions and bought elsewhere but it would have been more about not loving Riviera. But what do I know haha I also bought BCV with 20 years left.

 

[BrianR]

Welp we sat on signing our 200 VGF2 Add-On Contract for almost a month, just signed last night. Never thought I'd end up with 600 points across 5 contracts when we got our first 50 points at PVB, but here we are. I don't expect us to keep 600 points worth, between our existing resale contract and whatever shakes out with PVB, plus tying up all that capital vs. other opportunities with our family before they grow up and out of the house. Never say never though, you get accustomed to an amount of points and then "poof" what's a few more?

 

[RichVIII]

To me I'm good either way with or without restrictions. With restrictions limits some of the competing for rooms at my home resort at 7 months. So if availability increases my enjoyment of it (potentially) increases. Also these restrictions (potentially) limits some of the competing for rooms at new resorts at 7 months where I don't have the 11 month advantage. Without restrictions eliminates that advantage (potentially) but increases resale value (potentially

I know there are a lot of theories out there about the long-term impacts but let's take RIV for a moment. Resale owners (since they can't move anywhere at the 7 mo mark) seems like they will make more 11 mo. reservations to not be locked out. Only will direct will have the option at 7 months to potentially move. Maybe enough will but to me the beauty was the free-flowing nature of trades that kept the system in check. I could be totally wrong and would love to hear other thoughts.

 

[JoeDisney247365]

I know there are a lot of theories out there about the long-term impacts but let's take RIV for a moment. Resale owners (since they can't move anywhere at the 7 mo mark) seems like they will make more 11 mo. reservations to not be locked out. Only will direct will have the option at 7 months to potentially move. Maybe enough will but to me the beauty was the free-flowing nature of trades that kept the system in check. I could be totally wrong and would love to hear other thoughts.

This is well said. I'm guessing the ratio of direct to resale will play a big role in whether this is an actual advantage like I assumed or if it's negated by the fact that resale owners only can book there. My guess is that it will initially be an advantage as the majority of Riviera purchasers are direct points. And as the resort sells out and the resale market picks up that advantage will deteriorate with time. But it is interesting to hear the theories and my thoughts on this could be proven totally inaccurate.

 

[AvidDisReader]

Will the ability to resell the entire PVB in 42 years instead of 50 be enough incentive to make it the same Association? Or is creating another resort with restrictions more important to the long term plans? This is the big question that will be answered when it is formally announced.

 

[J-Dog]

5. DLT has no restrictions, Riv. keeps restrictions, PVB2 has no restrictions whether new or expansion.

No. 5 is unlikely, but there are one off oddities w/in the DVC universe. The 2 subsidized dues resorts are examples. VB was originally supposed to be larger, DVC changed it’s mind & decided not to build more units so the original pre 1/1/96 buyers pay lower dues - currently $2.53 per point lower. Aulani was flat out caught underestimating their dues by Hawaiian state regulators, had to halt sales & set accurate MFs so those contracts bought w/ the initial lower MFs pay lower dues - currently $2.15 lower. OKW w/ it’s original & extended different end dates is a head scratcher if you don’t know the history. So I’m not ruling anything out - including that DVC abandons resale restrictions at Riv going forward - but doesn’t make it retroactive to those points already sold.

If those contracts kept the restrictions after resale, but then newer contracts, even after resale, dropped the restrictions - that would seem like a total nightmare for MS to figure-out when trying to book at 7 months - because there's no way Disney's IT will keep that straight without endless glitches...

 

[Sandisw]

I know there are a lot of theories out there about the long-term impacts but let's take RIV for a moment. Resale owners (since they can't move anywhere at the 7 mo mark) seems like they will make more 11 mo. reservations to not be locked out. Only will direct will have the option at 7 months to potentially move. Maybe enough will but to me the beauty was the free-flowing nature of trades that kept the system in check. I could be totally wrong and would love to hear other thoughts.

I think you will see the issues at RIV at the 7 month more more so than during home resort advantage, because as you mention, resale owners won’t be trading out,

So, the ability to trade in will be less than it would be if there were no restrictions.

However, for owners, I don’t see it being much more than what we are currently seeing, when there are currently very few resale points in the system.

SV rooms are popular and most owners are booking right at 11 months…or shortly there after…so we already see some difficulty.

As had been posted, it seems the average number of resale points is about 20% of the total…it will take awhile to get there.

So, restrictions will make trading into these new resorts as a non owner a little more difficult, even for those who have points than can be used there. It may become even more important to buy at the resort you will be happy being at.

 

[Sandisw]

If those contracts kept the restrictions after resale, but then newer contracts, even after resale, dropped the restrictions - that would seem like a total nightmare for MS to figure-out when trying to book at 7 months - because there's no way Disney's IT will keep that straight without endless glitches...

I agree and I do not think they can change things for some and not all because it is all one POS…that is why they could not add resale restrictions to the new VGF points.

They are allowed to make different rules for other resort owners who want to trade in…like they have done with resale…but points owned at the same resort, if part of the same association..and under the same POS…need to follow the same rules