I bet someone knows this-(numbers question)

[DenLo]

But they are still artificially low IMO partly due to the fact that everything is new and maint is inherently less. It is my opinion that the spread will not stay as great as it is right now, we'll see.

But historically, the other WDW DVC resorts have not had excessive raises. But because the MF are lower at BLT than some of the other resorts you think that this time there will be big increases? Why wouldn't the fact that BLT as a lot of points being sold for it room numbers might help keep the annual dues lower?

 

[Dean]

But historically, the other WDW DVC resorts have not had excessive raises. But because the MF are lower at BLT than some of the other resorts you think that this time there will be big increases? Why wouldn't the fact that BLT as a lot of points being sold for it room numbers might help keep the annual dues lower?

We'll each have to make our assumptions and move forward. Mine is that I believe the amount of the spread will lessen over time eroding the maint fees savings associated. Given the changes in general the last 3-4 years, current group in charge and more recent dues hx, I don't think the long term hx helps us much in evaluating this situation. Time will tell but I'd rather be owning cheaper points with higher dues than more expensive points with lower dues for a new resort unless I'm set on that resort with the higher price basically every trip assuming there's no inherent reason to have higher fees. That leaves HH and VB out to a degree as I believe they do have inherent reasons to have higher fees. My judgement on the matter, yours may be different. We'll have to see who's right in a few years though it'll likely take 10-15 or more to really know.

 

[NewDCLGuy]

Lower points per night = inherant reason for higher fees.

 

[Deb & Bill]

Lower points per night = inherant reason for higher fees.

So all studios require higher maintenance fees?

 

[Mtnman44]

When we bought at SSR, it was the "low maint fee" leader, probably because it was still under construction in some phases. The dues were about $3.85 per point. Once the entire resort was finished, the points jumped quickly up to around $4.25 per ponit and are now somewhere in the range of $4.45.

I would expect similar from BLT in the years to come. Super low Maint fees relative to the other resorts should not be relied upon in a purchasing decision.

I've always maintained the notion that Yes, maint fees ARE the majority cost in DVC over the life of the contract. So, when weighing the buy or not-buy decision, it is important. However, when weighing the "which resort to buy" decision, I find the maint fees are much less important as they are really only pennies per point differences for the most part (excluding the beach resorts of course).

 

[NewDCLGuy]

It took 4 years for SSR dues to go from 3.80 to 4.21.That's a whopping 2.6% annual growth rate. Annual increases have been:

0.7%
3.9%
3.5%
2.2%
3.1%
2.8%

 

[NewDCLGuy]

Here are the average fee increases for the 5 WDW resorts from 2004 through 2010 (2004 was ssr's first). They are in order From oldest resort to newest. Again, I see zero reason to believe fees will increase faster at BLT than at older resorts.

OKW 4.9%
BWV 3.9%
VWL 3.5%
BCV 3.5%
SSR 2.7%

 

[Brian Noble]

If you put SSR and it's low price per point up against BLT and it's low maintenance fees, does one turn out to be a smarter purchase at some point?

It probably depends on the rate you use for depreciation, amortization, and opportunity cost of the purchase price. You can pick a set of assumptions that would lead to either winning. I tend to use 7% as my rate. At 7%, an SSR resale point at $70 (including closing) "costs" $9.36 in the first year. At the same rate, a BLT resale point at $112 "costs" $11.62. If you assume a 3.5% annual increase in dues at both resorts, in 20 years the dues approximately double, while the depreciation, amortization, and opportunity cost remain the same. At that point, SSR costs $13.82 per point, while BLT costs $15.40. So, still a split; the capital costs of BLT push it over.

Of course, if you use a smaller figure for depreciation, amortization, and opportunity, you can get the opposite answer. So, just buy where you want to stay.

 

[Deb & Bill]

Here are the average fee increases for the 5 WDW resorts from 2004 through 2010 (2004 was ssr's first). They are in order From oldest resort to newest. Again, I see zero reason to believe fees will increase faster at BLT than at older resorts.

OKW 4.9%
BWV 3.9%
VWL 3.5%
BCV 3.5%
SSR 2.7%

In the late 90's, the dues at OKW actually went down, twice I think.

Everyone is already complaining about damage to BLT. That translates to higher dues to me in the future.

 

[sweetdana]

1 added thing would be all points are not created equal.

Yes, you can use your points anywhere.. but if you are going 12-24 - 12-31 you are really limited to where ever you own. That being said even the standard BLT is much higher per night than any SSR (About 20 points a week than SSR room.)

You have to add this into the cost, though depending on when/how long/ and room type. Would sway the #s.

.. Who knows.. but Disney may when BC/BWV contracts run up, change the points per room to reflect the higher points at BLT. As right now a standard BW is cheaper than any SSR room, and this doesn't really make sense. BC and BW should be in line with BLT. SSR, and OKW should be cheaper. They may not do what they did with OKW, as seems they could make a killing starting over with point charts and dues.

 

[Sandisw]

1 added thing would be all points are not created equal.

Yes, you can use your points anywhere.. but if you are going 12-24 - 12-31 you are really limited to where ever you own. That being said even the standard BLT is much higher per night than any SSR (About 20 points a week than SSR room.)

You have to add this into the cost, though depending on when/how long/ and room type. Would sway the #s.

.. Who knows.. but Disney may when BC/BWV contracts run up, change the points per room to reflect the higher points at BLT. As right now a standard BW is cheaper than any SSR room, and this doesn't really make sense. BC and BW should be in line with BLT. SSR, and OKW should be cheaper. They may not do what they did with OKW, as seems they could make a killing starting over with point charts and dues.

Actually, the SV rooms are very similar in cost, points wise, already to these two resorts. It is the move to LV and MKV that starts to cost more.

So, if someone wants to be able to stay at BLT for a similar # of points, owning there to get priority for the SV rooms would be important.

I know for us, since we travel in Magic season, and only want to stay at BLT, BCV, BWV, or VWL, our point cost for a 5 night stay at any of these resorts are virtually the same (using 2011 points and 3 weeknights and 2 weekends).

 

[StitchFan73]

It probably depends on the rate you use for depreciation, amortization, and opportunity cost of the purchase price. You can pick a set of assumptions that would lead to either winning. I tend to use 7% as my rate. At 7%, an SSR resale point at $70 (including closing) "costs" $9.36 in the first year. At the same rate, a BLT resale point at $112 "costs" $11.62. If you assume a 3.5% annual increase in dues at both resorts, in 20 years the dues approximately double, while the depreciation, amortization, and opportunity cost remain the same. At that point, SSR costs $13.82 per point, while BLT costs $15.40. So, still a split; the capital costs of BLT push it over.

Of course, if you use a smaller figure for depreciation, amortization, and opportunity, you can get the opposite answer. So, just buy where you want to stay.

It's good advice-it's all good advice. I think part of my problem is after having seen all the resorts-with the exception of OKW, I love them all. No one resort speaks to me more than the other. I think that comes from being perfectly content in a Value resort-so any step up from there is..well....pretty good in my book lol. I think I need higher standards or or to be a bit more picky

Edited to clarify-I have never seen OKW-not that I didn't love OKW. Don't want to dis anyones' home resort. I know how people love their home resorts

 

[Brian Noble]

Well, if you love them all, then you could own at any of them. And, if that's where you are, I personally think an SSR resale is a pretty good deal. Among the WDW resorts, only BLT has lower dues, and SSR resale prices are great deals comparatively. OKW is another good choice, but unless you can find a resale for an extended contract, the earlier expiration date may end up being material.