Future resale value on restricted resorts?

[havoc315]

Because we’re talking about resale value. Could have bought Boardwalk resale instead of Riviera Direct in January 2020 and be selling at a 10% profit today instead of a 23% loss.

?? No… I bought Riviera direct in 2020. If I sold re-sale today, my loss would be about 10%.
If I bought Boardwalk direct in 2020, my loss today would be about 40%.

If I bought Riviera re-sale in Late 2019, I could re-sell it today at a 15% profit.
If I bought Boardwalk resale in late 2019, I’d only have a 8% increase.

You need to compare apples to apples. Now, there is month right month variation. But overall, fluctuations in re-sale price at BWV are about the same as the fluctuations at Riviera. In fact, over the last year, Riviera has stayed pretty flat while most DVC have seen their resale prices drop.

 

[matt and beth]

And isn’t that is why threads like this are so great? They put it all out there and then buyers have it all so they can make the best choice for them.

Exactly! Comes down to what works for you

 

[BeachClub2014]

I mean, I just cited numbers on why I think so. It has the lowest resale price proportional to the original direct price (without incentives) of any recent DVC opening over the same time period. And it's by a long shot, IMO.

My main message to buyers is that there are a lot people on this thread saying to be cautious of buying legacy resorts because their value will tank. I'd be cautious of buying Riviera, personally.

People should be cautious and informed when making any purchase of this magnitude.

My main point is people shouldn't assume facts not in evidence. Wholly attributing today's Riviera resale average price as a direct result of the restrictions totally ignores a host of other variables impacting perceived value. Its no coincidence that every resort sells for a different price on the resale market. There are also wide swings in the price of the same resort on the resale market. There's a whole lot of reasons why, and those shouldn't be ignored.

 

[Jlo85]

?? No… I bought Riviera direct in 2020. If I sold re-sale today, my loss would be about 10%.
If I bought Boardwalk direct in 2020, my loss today would be about 40%.

If I bought Riviera re-sale in Late 2019, I could re-sell it today at a 15% profit.
If I bought Boardwalk resale in late 2019, I’d only have a 8% increase.

You need to compare apples to apples. Now, there is month right month variation. But overall, fluctuations in re-sale price at BWV are about the same as the fluctuations at Riviera. In fact, over the last year, Riviera has stayed pretty flat while most DVC have seen their resale prices drop.

View attachment 702189

No one is reasonably buying direct for resorts that are sold-out. You're talking about a buyer that doesn't exist.

The original Riviera price without incentives was $188. It is worth $144, that is a 23% drop. You are cherry-picking numbers here to justify your position.

 

[Sandisw]

So? I sometimes get lost in the never ending debate over whether one resort is performing "better" or "worse" than another based on some snapshot in time. Riviera is nothing like CCV at all, so why is there any expectation that the two would "perform" the same on some fuzzy financial metric like average resale prices at one moment in time?

I pulled data from our threads..posted above…regarding CCV resale prices at certain points in time over the past few years, and our data shows that it also experienced some dips like RIV has in its first 3 years.

So, while I agree every resort does not have to do the same thing, right now, it’s acting pretty close to normal.

The thing about RIV, right now is that the incentives have been pretty aggressive and so it’s easier buyer to go direct for that resort and get full access..and that could be part of why the resale value has not moved much yet,

And, I don’t think anyone is saying having One restricted resort so far has made an impact on resale value…but, in 10 to 15 years, when more have them, and getting close to expiration of 2042, there is a chance it might.

 

[Jlo85]

People should be cautious and informed when making any purchase of this magnitude.

My main point is people shouldn't assume facts not in evidence. Wholly attributing today's Riviera resale average price as a direct result of the restrictions totally ignores a host of other variables impacting perceived value. Its no coincidence that every resort sells for a different price on the resale market. There are also wide swings in the price of the same resort on the resale market. There's a whole lot of reasons why, and those shouldn't be ignored.

That is fair, but I mean reviews of Riviera have been great. So, me personally, I think it is the restrictions. But people are free to disagree.

 

[BeachClub2014]

That is fair, but I mean reviews of Riviera have been great. So, me personally, I think it is the restrictions. But people are free to disagree.

Agreed

 

[Frugal Fairy Tales]

Hold my beer! … Be right back… Going to get my crystal ball.

 

[Jlo85]

I pulled data from our threads..posted above…regarding CCV resale prices at certain points in time over the past few years, and our data shows that it also experienced some dips like RIV has in its first 3 years.

So, while I agree every resort does not have to do the same thing, right now, it’s acting pretty close to normal.

The thing about RIV, right now is that the incentives have been pretty aggressive and so it’s easier buyer to go direct for that resort and get full access..and that could be part of why the resale value has not moved much yet,

And, I don’t think anyone is saying having One restricted resort so far has made an impact on resale value…but, in 10 to 15 years, when more have them, and getting close to expiration of 2042, there is a chance it might.

I disagree in that there were incentives for prior resorts as well. And there will be incentives for future resorts. But again, my feeling is that if Riviera was acting like VGF PVB or CCV, it should be around $160/point today. And it's not. You can disagree and that's fine, said my piece.

 

[havoc315]

I mean, I just cited numbers on why I think so. It has the lowest resale price proportional to the original direct price (without incentives) of any recent DVC opening over the same time period. And it's by a long shot, IMO.

My main message to buyers is that there are a lot people on this thread saying to be cautious of buying legacy resorts because their value will tank. I'd be cautious of buying Riviera, personally.

We're talking about value meaning what will my asset be worth if I sell it. What do I care what Disney is charging?

Because, how can you sell it if you don’t buy it?!?!? You’re talking about the value of the re-sale —- if you bought it, how much could you then re-sell it for.

I use the original price sans incentives just to guide where Riviera should be today. IMO, if it behaved like other recent resorts it should be at $160/point resale. But it's not.

That’s simply not true. You can’t say “this is where a resort resale price should be 2 years after release” — that’s massively variable. It depends on the economic conditions of the time, and lots of other factors. How were

I mean, I just cited numbers on why I think so. It has the lowest resale price proportional to the original direct price (without incentives) of any recent DVC opening over the same time period. And it's by a long shot, IMO.

My main message to buyers is that there are a lot people on this thread saying to be cautious of buying legacy resorts because their value will tank. I'd be cautious of buying Riviera, personally.

We're talking about value meaning what will my asset be worth if I sell it. What do I care what Disney is charging?

Because, how can you sell it if you don’t buy it?!?!? You’re talking about the value of the re-sale —- if you bought it, how much could you then re-sell it for.

I use the original price sans incentives just to guide where Riviera should be today. IMO, if it behaved like other recent resorts it should be at $160/point resale. But it's not.

That’s simply not true. You can’t say “this is where a resort resale price should be 2 years after release” — that’s massively variable. It depends on the economic conditions of the time, and lots of other factors. For example, How were Resale values in 2009 in the Great Recession?

Anyway, according to Fidelity.. the resale price of CCV dropped in its first 2 years— going from 149 in 2018 to 143 in 2019 to 133 in 2020. So RIV is behaving better than CCV.

If you bought Copper Creek on opening and sold it 3 years later, you’d have lost about 30%. That’s actually worse than Riviera.

You’re trying to draw inferences that are unsupported by the evidence.

 

[Jlo85]

Anyway, according to Fidelity.. the resale price of CCV dropped in its first 2 years— going from 149 in 2018 to 143 in 2019 to 133 in 2020. So RIV is behaving better than CCV.

If you bought Copper Creek on opening and sold it 3 years later, you’d have lost about 30%. That’s actually worse than Riviera.

I love how you literally cite the report (https://www.fidelityrealestate.com/blog/long-term-value-of-disney-vacation-club-ownership/) where CCV was reselling at $150 immediately after opening and Riviera was reselling at $131.

You can believe the numbers you want to believe. I'm not getting into a math battle. But I don't think Riviera's numbers are performing on par with recent resorts. And I think any reasonable person looking at the numbers would have the same feeling. And I think it's disingenuous to try to present it to prospective buyers (like me who frequent these threads) that it is.

 

[Sandisw]

No one is reasonably buying direct for resorts that are sold-out. You're talking about a buyer that doesn't exist.

The original Riviera price without incentives was $188. It is worth $144, that is a 23% drop. You are cherry-picking numbers here to justify your position.

Well, as I posted above, based on the data on our site, CCV was selling in the $130s in 2020 when it’s direct price started at $176 in 2017…thats also a 23% drop,

Another way to look at it is that RIV is currently selling for more than SSR, OKW, BRV, AKV BWV,…plus VB, HH, and AUl..all which can trade into legacy resorts,

Its also selling within $25 of BLT, CCV and PVB..on average…which also can be used everywhere,

 

[havoc315]

I disagree in that there were incentives for prior resorts as well. And there will be incentives for future resorts. But again, my feeling is that if Riviera was acting like VGF PVB or CCV, it should be around $160/point today. And it's not. You can disagree and that's fine, said my piece.

Riv is actually acting superior to those resorts. You’re just making stuff up, unsupported by any data.

Poly launched in 2015 at $160 per Point. In 2017, resale was only $128, for example.

But there are lots of factors at play — re-sale prices rise when a resort sells out and when DVC starts using ROFR.

Compare Riv to Aulani.. 2 resorts that aren’t sold out. Riv is behave far far better in resale to Aulani.

All of this is multi-factorial. But even on simpler levels, the evidence doesn’t support your inferences.

 

[Cfabar1]

All things being equal, I would avoid buying Riviera, both direct and resale. The restrictions are a major dealbreaker to me. But, as 2042 comes closer, maybe that will change. The program is in a major transition. Right now, even if you buy and get 20 years until 2042, you’ll get a good deal and can stay anywhere except Riviera. As more restrictions emerge, and the number of years you can use the old resorts wanes, that value may change. But, I don’t see how it won’t on some level limit the value.

 

[havoc315]

I love how you literally cite the report (https://www.fidelityrealestate.com/blog/long-term-value-of-disney-vacation-club-ownership/) where CCV was reselling at $150 immediately after opening and Riviera was reselling at $131.

You can believe the numbers you want to believe. I'm not getting into a math battle. But I don't think Riviera's numbers are performing on par with recent resorts. And I think any reasonable person looking at the numbers would have the same feeling.

You can think and feel however you want. The actual data shows Riv is doing just as well or better.

I’ll leave it at this:

The actual numbers… not the feelings… Riviera is right in line (or better) than the rest in re-sale:

And I think it's disingenuous to try to present it to prospective buyers (like me who frequent these threads) that it is.

 

[Sandisw]

That is fair, but I mean reviews of Riviera have been great. So, me personally, I think it is the restrictions. But people are free to disagree.

I don’t think we can ignore the differences between buying RIV resale vs buying RIV direct

DVDs aggressive incentive the past few years has certainly played a role in what the resale market can command.

So, in that respect, the restrictions have done what DVD wanted them to do..spend a bit more to get a product that is good everywhere to one that can only be used at one resort.

In terms of future resale value being impacted? Its certainly possible because of DVD seems determined to make resale so different.

That is why I caution people not to treat DVC as an appreciating product because way to many variables that play a role in that value.

If DVD stops ROFR on SSar or AKV tomorrow for 6 months, those prices will go back down some as buyers become more aggressive with lower offers, and sellers being listing lower as well.

 

[Jlo85]

Lot of post-purchase rationalization in this thread. Here is my source for CCV: https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-june-2020/. The $130 number y'all are citing is an aberration. And if we're doing outliers, I could quickly cite the $118/point resale price on the ROFR thread for Riviera.

If you bought Riviera and are happy, I'm happy for you. You say it wasn't an investment, so you shouldn't really care about the resale value anyways (since you are never going to sell). Please don't come for me!

One question I would have for anyone is how much do you think Riviera would be selling for without the restrictions? Like I said, I think it'd be $160/point (probably higher). If you truly feel that $144/point is where it would be, I think you're crazy.

 

[Sandisw]

I disagree in that there were incentives for prior resorts as well. And there will be incentives for future resorts. But again, my feeling is that if Riviera was acting like VGF PVB or CCV, it should be around $160/point today. And it's not. You can disagree and that's fine, said my piece.

There is nothing wrong with making some predictions on what you feel RIV should be. To be honest, I and others predicted when it was first announced it would never get more than $100/pt and here it is selling in the $140s, and some of us have paid in the $150s...I did last summer.

But, we do have data here on the DIS that I and others have shared, which so shows that CCV, experienced a similar reduction in its resale value compared to its starting price, in 2020. And then you graph things over time, it’s pretty similar.

So, the current situation with RIV is not completely unprecedented when comparing It to previous resorts. There was a time when I sold BLT in the $80s when it’s base price had started at $104.

Even consider VGF…it’s base price in 2013 was $145 and it’s averaging right now around the $160s to $170s…shouldn’t that be much higher?

It’s not because DVD decided to expand the resort and put it back on sale for such a low price. I paid $179/ for my 300 points.

And that is why many of us are very cautious in the info we share because we have watched the resale market and DVDs actions for so long that we take nothing for granted when it comes to the resale value of any of the resorts.

ETA: Real people who did indeed pay in the $130s.

https://www.disboards.com/threads/r...ost-for-instructions-formatting-tool.3798344/

https://www.disboards.com/threads/r...ost-for-instructions-formatting-tool.3806556/

 

[havoc315]

Lot of post-purchase rationalization in this thread. Here is my source for CCV: https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-june-2020/. The $130 number y'all are citing is an aberration. And if we're doing outliers, I could quickly cite the $118/point resale price on the ROFR thread for Riviera.

If you bought Riviera and are happy, I'm happy for you. You say it wasn't an investment, so you shouldn't really care about the resale value anyways (since you are never going to sell). Please don't come for me!

One question I would have for anyone is how much do you think Riviera would be selling for without the restrictions? Like I said, I think it'd be $160/point (probably higher). If you truly feel that $144/point is where it would be, I think you're crazy.

Once again, you cite data incorrectly, it actually proving my point.
In June 2020 -- A 200 point contract sold at RIV for $177 per point. At CCV, a 200 point contract was $202 per point.
Based on link you just provided: In June 2020, RIV resale was $133 and CCV resale was $147 in June 2020.

So that means... in June 2020 -- RIV re-sale was retaining 75% of direct value. CCV re-sale was retaining 73% of its direct value.

So even based on the link you just provided, RIV was actually holding its resale value a tad better than CCV.

Now of course there is fluctuation and variation. These are often small sample sizes. They can vary wildly based on the sizes of the contract being sold. ROFR has a huge impact. Economic factors, etc.

But when comparing apples to apples data, RIV consistently holds up in line with the other resorts. You seem to like to pick and choose apples to oranges comparisons... and of course only the apples and oranges that suit your preferred conclusion.
If you're going to compare CCV to RIV, why not compare RIV to AUL? Aulani launched in 2010 at $120 per point. In June 2020, by the data you provided, it was $88 per point. So a full TEN YEARS after initial sales, resale was still 25% below the initial direct price!

 

[Paul Stupin]

I mean, I just cited numbers on why I think so. It has the lowest resale price proportional to the original direct price (without incentives) of any recent DVC opening over the same time period. And it's by a long shot, IMO.

My main message to buyers is that there are a lot people on this thread saying to be cautious of buying legacy resorts because their value will tank. I'd be cautious of buying Riviera, personally.

We're talking about value meaning what will my asset be worth if I sell it. What do I care what Disney is charging? I use the original price sans incentives just to guide where Riviera should be today. IMO, if it behaved like other recent resorts it should be at $160/point resale. But it's not.

I know you don’t believe legacy resorts’ value will tank. Weren't you just recently arguing, on a separate thread, that BCV could be selling at $500 per point in 2041?