Future resale value on restricted resorts?

[Paul Stupin]

RIV opened in 2019. I doubt anyone at Disney wanted it half sold in 2022.

I'll give you Covid and no APs and other excuses, but lets not act that's a normal sales pace for anything but poor Aulani or that it was the plan all along.

Poor Aulani? I bought in the low 90s a couple years ago, the average resale price is now approx $117, and I‘m able to use both the 11 month window for busy times while still booking early December this year last week. Try doing that at WDW. I don’t want it to ever sell out! Though I also own at VGF and CCV, I couldn’t be happier with my Aulani contracts. Granted, the dues are higher, but not hugely higher, and so what.

Granted, obviously Disney did not expect sales to be so sluggish, but they seem to be ok booking cash rooms in the meantime, and the latest projections indicate that it will indeed sell out in another 5 years or so. Not sure why you care so much about the corporate perspective when this is so monumentally beneficial to owners. Despite earlier, crazy speculation, Disney is obviously still committed, and you’ll find most Aulani owners couldn’t be happier.

 

[Sandisw]

I disagree. We're talking about a resort of a similar caliber to Grand Floridian. VGF is reselling at about a 15% discount to direct. You could argue Riviera doesn't have the same brand or name reputation as VGF, but I don't personally think that explains the stark difference in resale value. Riviera is reselling at a 28% discount (almost double VGF), and I would say that is a result of resale restrictions.

It might be, but a 28% reduction over direct three and a half years in is also within the range that most active selling resorts have seen

But look at VGF…it’s not a new resort. Sales started 9 years ago and it was $145 and came back at $207. That has to be part of the discussion because that played a role in where it’s resale value started when it went back in active sales.

Its currently averaging in the $170s resale…down at least 10% from a year ago….and there are no restrictions in play…so, while the direct to resale discount is smaller than RIVs, those VGF buyers who bought in the last two years would lose money selling today..

That is why assuming that increased resale value of any resort, including the legacy ones, is a given or that DVD doesn’t have the power to influence trends is misleading because what they do…ROFR and pricing can and does change things,

We have seen it now with VGF and we have seen it with SSR, OKW, and AKV as we….

My point being that if the incentives for RIV were the same as VGF, then the resale value of RIV might be higher and that it’s just too soon to say that it’s only the restrictions that is setting resale price vs, DVDs pricing.

Or, if VGF had the same incentives as RIV…VGF resale would most likely be lower than the $170s.

 

[Paul Stupin]

It's not meaningless, it's just not important to me. I don't do this as an investment.

I don’t do it as an investment either, but a decent resale value is one of the fundamental pillars on which DVC rests.

 

[kanerf]

In 2030 or so, we may see the sales on the so-called restricted resorts soar, simply because there will probably be no other options other then the older resorts that will be sunsetting in 2042.

 

[Sandisw]

RIV opened in 2019. I doubt anyone at Disney wanted it half sold in 2022.

I'll give you Covid and no APs and other excuses, but lets not act that's a normal sales pace for anything but poor Aulani or that it was the plan all along.

You keep saying this but there are 6.5 million points at RIV. Take everything else out of it and assume average sales of 110 k monthly… similar to other resorts that have sold …it would take 59 months to sell out, even at that brisk pace,

You add in the pandemic and such and it helps to offset some of why it’s not farther along than it is.

So, yes, it’s sales are not as strong as previous resorts, but it’s not a complete failure..yet,…and the last two months it has done better than VGF, so that seems to indicate VGF is not selling either.

 

[havoc315]

.

I've said this before, but comparing sold-out and actively selling resorts is silly. That's why I compared it to VGF. And CCV and PVB before it were both reselling at a 15% discount while in active sale.

That’s not true. I showed that the discount for CCV, while in active sales, was bigger than the RIV discount. Same is true for PVB:

2017– direct was $176. Resale was between 128 and 147 depending on which data source.
So discount in 2017 for poly was between 17% and 29%.
And AUL, still in active sales, has a much bigger discount.

And when active sales end— re-sale price jumps up. You seem to be using the CCV data for after active sales ended.

Bigger picture — need to consider re-sale across the board. The last year, re-sale prices are stagnating at EVERY resort.

Your logic is:
It’s 95 degrees when Resort X opened.
It’s 65 degrees when Resort Y opened.

Therefore, you conclude… Resort X causes hotter weather. Ignoring the fact that Resort X opened in July and Resort Y opened in January.

Copper Creek and Poly both opened during a time period where resale values were increasing across the board. RIV is open during a period of stagnation.

Riviera at a 30% discount is an outlier. And I would say it's because of resale restrictions.


Aulani isn't a WDW resort. And that's why I would argue it's selling at such a discount.

You contort your assumptions to reach your pre-determined conclusion.

 

[Jlo85]

That’s not true. I showed that the discount for CCV, while in active sales, was bigger than the RIV discount. Same is true for PVB:

2017– direct was $176. Resale was between 128 and 147 depending on which data source.
So discount in 2017 for poly was between 17% and 29%.
And AUL, still in active sales, has a much bigger discount.

I'm really done with the math battles, I've cited my sources. But if you honestly believe that if Riviera was selling today without its restrictions, that I as a direct buyer could expect a 30% immediate loss if I go to sell it, then that is certainly a take to have.

To me, 15% sounds like a fair discount for a resale buyer, and has historically been the case. A 30% loss is ridiculous. And you can try to explain it away, but I just don't agree.

 

[Paul Stupin]

I'm really done with the math battles, I've cited my sources. But if you honestly believe that if Riviera was selling today without its restrictions, that I as a direct buyer could expect a 30% immediate loss if I go to sell it, then that is certainly a take to have.

To me, 15% sounds like a fair discount for a resale buyer, and has historically been the case. A 30% loss is ridiculous. And you can try to explain it away, but I just don't agree.

I'm really done with the math battles, I've cited my sources. But if you honestly believe that if Riviera was selling today without its restrictions, that I as a direct buyer could expect a 30% immediate loss if I go to sell it, then that is certainly a take to have.

To me, 15% sounds like a fair discount for a resale buyer, and has historically been the case. A 30% loss is ridiculous. And you can try to explain it away, but I just don't agree.

Maybe you should do a tad more research.
https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/buying/direct-vs-resale/
Resale at almost all the WDW resorts represents a greater than 30% savings over direct.

 

[Jlo85]

Maybe you should do a tad more research.
https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/buying/direct-vs-resale/
Resale at almost all the WDW resorts represents a greater than 30% savings over direct.

I've repeated ad nauseum that comparing sold-out resorts is silly. The whole point of this thread was have Riviera's restrictions had an impact on 1) Riviera's resale value or 2) legacy resorts resale value. And I've said that I think #1 is a pretty clear yes and #2 is a pretty clear no.

 

[havoc315]

I'm really done with the math battles, I've cited my sources. But if you honestly believe that if Riviera was selling today without its restrictions, that I as a direct buyer could expect a 30% immediate loss if I go to sell it, then that is certainly a take to have.

As that's consistent with EVERY resort in DVC except for VGF.... yes, I think it would be very similar. You are simply incorrectly calculating the data.
[And as to VGF, the re-sale data may simply be lagging the transition back into open sales.. Looking at the ROFR thread, most recent VGF sales are in the $160 to $165 range -- So using the current direct prices for 200 point purchase, RIV re-selling at a 23% discount, VGF selling at about a 19% discount. I really don't believe the gap is actually 30/15, but I would wait a few months for more data to draw any firm conclusions).
But as I said, even if you squint closely and see a tiny difference.... who cares?
If I told you that you can have your dream house for $500,000, or you can have your second choice for $500,000..
And I told you that in 30 years, the dream house would be worth between $600,000 and $650,000... while your second choice will be worth between $610,000 and $660,000.... Would you really forego your dream house because the other house *might* be worth a *little* bit more in 30 years?

To me, 15% sounds like a fair discount for a resale buyer, and has historically been the case. A 30% loss is ridiculous. And you can try to explain it away, but I just don't agree.

30% loss is ridiculous??

Animal Kingdom	$133	$200	$67	34%
Aulani	$117	$207	$90	43%
Bay Lake Tower	$169	$265	$96	36%
Beach Club	$174	$265	$91	34%
Boardwalk	$148	$230	$82	36%
Boulder Ridge	$121	$205	$84	41%
Copper Creek	$166	$240	$74	31%
Grand Californian	$265	$310	$45	15%
Grand Floridian	$174	$207	$33	16%
Hilton Head	$88	$155	$67	43%
Old Key West	$120	$200	$80	40%
Polynesian	$166	$250	$84	34%
Riviera Resort	$144	$207	$63	30%
Saratoga Springs	$130	$200	$70	35%
Vero Beach	$76	$140	$64	46%

Hmmm, 30% is the 3rd best of any DVC....

 

[havoc315]

I've repeated ad nauseum that comparing sold-out resorts is silly. The whole point of this thread was have Riviera's restrictions had an impact on 1) Riviera's resale value or 2) legacy resorts resale value. And I've said that I think #1 is a pretty clear yes and #2 is a pretty clear no.

It's pretty clear.... When you say, "I'm going to ignore comparison to all the other resorts in this time frame, because they are sold out. I'm going to ignore Aulani, because it's not WDW. I'm going to ignore the many months of CCV and Poly data that contradict what I'm saying, and only use the months and data sources that back up my conclusion."

Yes.... then it's very clear... just as clear as you certain conclusion that Boardwalk resale prices will be higher than RIV resale prices in 2040.

 

[RoseGold]

I’ll fully admit the data is not yet conclusive. The data suggest the resale resurrections have something between zero impact on resale value, to possibly having a minor negligible impact. Should you avoid buying your favorite resort because the resale value may, worst case scenario, be a few dollars less than another resort 20 years down the road?

For now, it hasn't mattered much. Everyone is buying it for forever. They'll never get divorced or lose their job, and they haven't had to sell.

It matters when there are thousands of people losing their shirts on DVC, and then it's like every other timeshare. The more timeshare-y Disney acts, the more it becomes every other timeshare. Right now, the O14 aren't in the same category of product. We will see over time if the product becomes differentiated for the restricted resale, or if it just overall becomes another worthless timeshare.

I hope to be out of DVC before that transition happens, but if Poly2 keeps resale restrictions, the writing is on the wall to me. DVC has a bunch of salesmen and kiosks everywhere for a reason. If those other timeshares can sell a pile of something, surely Disney can also.

 

[Jlo85]

As that's consistent with EVERY resort in DVC except for VGF.... yes, I think it would be very similar. You are simply incorrectly calculating the data.

Can't believe I'm doing this, but this is my data. I'm done:

Resort	Sales Start Date	100% Declared Date	Original Direct Price	Original Resale Price	Resale Date	Days Elapsed	Resale Discount	Source
Grand Floridian Expansion	03/03/22​		207​	172​	03/31/22​	28​	17%​	https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-july-2022/
Riviera Resort	12/16/19​		188​	139​	02/23/20​	69​	26%​	https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-december-2020/
Copper Creek	04/05/17​	03/13/19​	176​	155​	12/31/17​	270​	12%​	https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-price-changes-from-2016-2019/
Polynesian	01/13/15​	08/10/17​	160​	146​	12/31/16​	718​	9%​	https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-price-changes-from-2016-2019/
Grand Floridian	05/23/13​	10/31/14​	145​	146​	09/30/14​	495​	-1%​	https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/analysis-of-dvc-resale-price-changes-2014-2016/

 

[Paul Stupin]

It's pretty clear.... When you say, "I'm going to ignore comparison to all the other resorts in this time frame, because they are sold out. I'm going to ignore Aulani, because it's not WDW. I'm going to ignore the many months of CCV and Poly data that contradict what I'm saying, and only use the months and data sources that back up my conclusion."

Yes.... then it's very clear... just as clear as you certain conclusion that Boardwalk resale prices will be higher than RIV resale prices in 2040.

Yes, I also believe that we were told just a few days ago that BCV would be selling for $500 a point in 2041, an assertion which poster is no longer acknowledging. There truly comes a point where data is being twisted into a nonsensical knot.

 

[Jlo85]

Yes, I also believe that we were told just a few days ago that BCV would be selling for $500 a point in 2041, an assertion which poster is no longer acknowledging. There truly comes a point where data is being twisted into a nonsensical knot.

Lol, my chart said BCV will be $53/point in 2041. And if the rack rate grows at a rate of 4.7% per year as it has through history, it will be $59/point in 2041. So, yes people may buy contracts to save the $6.

 

[Paul Stupin]

Lol, my chart said BCV will be $53/point in 2041. And if the rack rate grows at a rate of 4.7% per year as it has through history, it will be $59/point in 2041. So, yes people may buy contracts to save the $6.

Copied from your post on Monday:

Keep in mind that if we consider that DVC direct prices have grown at a 4.7% rate since inception, the direct price in 2041 will be $525/point. That leaves a lot of room for savings.

Why not cook up a chart for that logic? Seems easy enough to do.

 

[DonMacGregor]

I've just enjoyed 8 pages of back and forth that amount to two fleas arguing over who owns the dog...

Thanks to all!

 

[wilkydelts]

Careful @DonMacGregor, they may use Data to refute your claim

 

[havoc315]

For now, it hasn't mattered much. Everyone is buying it for forever. They'll never get divorced or lose their job, and they haven't had to sell.

It matters when there are thousands of people losing their shirts on DVC,

Then the answer is -- Do NOT buy DVC.

If you're making a $30,000 purchase (with dues, more like $50,000-$100,000), and you're obsessed about whether the resale of one property might be worth $50 more than another property in 20 years....
No, that tiny difference isn't going to be the shirt-saver.

 

[havoc315]

Lol, my chart said BCV will be $53/point in 2041. And if the rack rate grows at a rate of 4.7% per year as it has through history, it will be $59/point in 2041. So, yes people may buy contracts to save the $6.

That's fun... people will spend $59/point for points they can never use (a purchase in 2041, after ROFR... would no longer realistically be bookable). And, we talk in 2022 prices -- So in 2022 prices, they would pay $53-$59 for per point, for points they could never use, when they could just rent the points for $20.
You really think people are suckers.

(of course, if you are saying the prices WITH inflation may be $53 to $59, that may be truer... but if so, then re-sale at Riviera would have the same inflation, and would be around $600-700 per point).