EXPIRED - Direct Sales Incentives - Summer 2020 - Expanded list!

[we"reofftoneverland]

I finally called to inquire about purchasing direct. I’ve been following the resale threads, as I’ve been looking to purchase 230-250 points resale for use at Aulani and WDW. Now I’m considering 100 points direct at OKW and then resale for the remaining points. I’ve been going back and forth for weeks. Given we’re not local and my DH only accompanies my DD and me every other year to WDW, I don’t think we’ll come out ahead with any Gold Pass savings; however, I think I’ll always feel a twinge if I only hold resale points. It’s so dumb, but I think of being at Aulani seeing members with their sparkly wristbands, and it’d make me feel like my membership was less valuable (which, in a way, would be true). It’s emotional versus logical.

In any case, I want to share the guide told me that they are in specific UYs for selling the sold-out resorts. Currently, that UY is April. She said she needs to get an exception approval to sell a different UY, but did not make it sound like that would be an issue. I imagine given the guideline, they’re pushing April. Too, she mentioned they’ve been selling a lot of SSR resort as of late.

This is what we did. We have 4 contracts, one is direct just for the benefits. Dh wanted to be able to go to the Epcot lounge. Lol. I personally think it is the way to go. We are tempted to add on at RIV right now, but every time I start thinking about the resale restrictions I get nervous. I wish they would just do away with the restrictions because we would buy!

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

Metrics have likely been redefined for reduced sales, they don't have any WDW resort under construction or nearing completion that they need to rip through RIV to get it sold out, and 95% of the population is not taking any or very minimal trips in all of 2020/possibly first half of 2021 which means there is an extra ordinary amount of saved discretionary funds for middle/upper class families when they start filing back in to WDW over the next 18 months (DVC seems to understand the long game right now based on things like resale restrictions but that can always change).

Also note that there have been multiple reports of "exciting" new membership benefits in the pipeline that we could see roll out. Which lines up with doubling down on benefits or soft value vs giving away actual cash.

Finally I am just not sure how much more they really would sell if they did even an extra $5-$10/point discount for the 125+ points. If they are raising prices now it seems they don't think doing additional discounts will be that beneficial.

I am not sure why you are betting on a spike in unemployment when the reality is people are still coming back from government mandated shutdowns at this point which will fight increases in unemployment. You will also notice much of the unemployment currently is stemming from those under 25 years of age which is double that of those over 25.

https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea10.htm
You will also notice a vastly larger number of temporary job loss than normal times as well:
https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea11.htm
This temporary job loss can turn in to permanent, it can turn in to being brought back then let go, or they can be called back to work.

I agree that these are probably the best incentives you will see— ever. This has been an extraordinary period in our history and is not likely to be replicated. That being said, you never know. There are certain things that could happen that would restrict the economy. One big one could happen in a couple of months. I think Disney is offering these incentives mostly as a hedge against that possible economic uncertainty.

 

[Where'sPiglet?]

It‘s my understanding you need to show your blue card to get the sparkly wristbands, along with other discounts and benefits while at Aulani. I feel like a 5yo as I whine about non-sparkly wristbands.

I do consider purchasing Aulani resale points. Given what’s going on in Hawaii right now, it doesn’t feel as “safe” as purchasing a WDW resort, at least not until COVID is a thing of the past. Also the MFs on non-subsidized Aulani are high. Too, while I’d like to think I can make it it Aulani every other year, that’s unlikely.

My 14 yo DD and I do visit WDW once a year, sometimes twice. I have adult children who come into play on some visits, but who knows what the future will bring. I did manage to get in three trips on an AP this past year. I guess I’m looking at OKW for the direct points because of cost—it’s easier to swallow the OKW spread between resale and direct points. If using the points at WDW vs. Aulani, I’d probably try to use them as SAP on visits where I’m looking at studios—ideally at Poly. If wanting a bigger villa, OKW looks appealing for point charts and room size. For the resale points, I wouldn’t necessarily stick with OKW. Maybe there’s a flaw in my thought process?

I think your thought process is sound. I was just wondering why you'd go direct for OKW vs Aulani when Aulani has a few more years on the contract when the current price difference isn't large. I do think you're right that the spread between direct and resale is wider on Aulani than on OKW. Finding an OKW (E) resale can be challenging, and finding an Aulani Subsidized can be REALLY challenging.

Good luck!

I agree that these are probably the best incentives you will see— ever. This has been an extraordinary period in our history and is not likely to be replicated. That being said, you never know. There are certain things that could happen that would restrict the economy. One big one could happen in a couple of months. I think Disney is offering these incentives mostly as a hedge against that possible economic uncertainty.

The economic uncertainty is what gives me the most pause in all of this decision making.

 

[RescueRanger]

I have no inside knowledge, so this is a guess, but I bet one of the new incentives will be FP+ related. There are rumors that FP+ in its current form is possibly not coming back. There are some rumors that it will involve some sort of paid option. My guess is that if this is true, blue card members will probably get the FPs for free. That would certainly make people think long and hard about it.

 

[holyrita]

If I wanted to buy direct with a Sept UY, did I miss the boat on getting 2019 points as the Sept 2019 UY has ended?

 

[Lorana]

If I wanted to buy direct with a Sept UY, did I miss the boat on getting 2019 points as the Sept 2019 UY has ended?

Yes, unfortunately. You needed to have bought direct by 8/31.

 

[holyrita]

Yes, unfortunately. You needed to have bought direct by 8/31.

Thanks! I assumed as much. If only I had read about these "exciting new benefits in the pipeline for direct members" five days ago

Now the question is.. do I accept this missed opportunity (saving money/increased FOMO), or consider adding an Oct use year to my Sept contract..

 

[MICKIMINI]

Thanks! I assumed as much. If only I had read about these "exciting new benefits in the pipeline for direct members" five days ago

Now the question is.. do I accept this missed opportunity (saving money/increased FOMO), or consider adding an Oct use year to my Sept contract..

I want to know what these new "benefits" are already!

 

[sethschroeder]

Thanks! I assumed as much. If only I had read about these "exciting new benefits in the pipeline for direct members" five days ago

Now the question is.. do I accept this missed opportunity (saving money/increased FOMO), or consider adding an Oct use year to my Sept contract..

Do you have just a singular resale contract? Any chance in the future you choose to change resorts for that resale contract where you might end up just selling it and buying another resale?

Otherwise 2 UY can be done just kind of painful but can be done.

I probably wouldn't worry about it. Yes you lost out on a year but not enough for me to carry 2 UYs.

 

[holyrita]

Do you have just a singular resale contract? Any chance in the future you choose to change resorts for that resale contract where you might end up just selling it and buying another resale?

Otherwise 2 UY can be done just kind of painful but can be done.

I probably wouldn't worry about it. Yes you lost out on a year but not enough for me to carry 2 UYs.

Yeah, we just got account access and points added on our first resale contract this past week. We got a really good deal in mid-April, so I don't think we'd sell it for another contract to switch resorts. But.. 30 years is a long time, anything is possible!

If I were to buy direct, I think I would only do it if we get the previous UY points as well. Mentally it just makes me feel better about the premium on direct prices. And you're right, I don't think I want the headache of multiple use years. Maybe I'll revisit next August, it would give us a year to see how we like DVC (if we can travel to the parks in that time..) and how far our current number of points will go.

On the other hand, the more I think about not reaching out to Disney to buy direct 5 or 6 days ago, the more I kick myself. The process on our resale contract wasn't finished yet and I wanted the existing member incentive.
Losing the previous use year points, the current incentives, and the 100 points direct benefits minimum vs likely 125 next year. Grr it really does bug me.

 

[Lorana]

Yeah, we just got account access and points added on our first resale contract this past week. We got a really good deal in mid-April, so I don't think we'd sell it for another contract to switch resorts. But.. 30 years is a long time, anything is possible!

If I were to buy direct, I think I would only do it if we get the previous UY points as well. Mentally it just makes me feel better about the premium on direct prices. And you're right, I don't think I want the headache of multiple use years. Maybe I'll revisit next August, it would give us a year to see how we like DVC (if we can travel to the parks in that time..) and how far our current number of points will go.

On the other hand, the more I think about not reaching out to Disney to buy direct 5 or 6 days ago, the more I kick myself. The process on our resale contract wasn't finished yet and I wanted the existing member incentive.
Losing the previous use year points, the current incentives, and the 100 points direct benefits minimum vs likely 125 next year. Grr it really does bug me.

Maybe the way to look at it is that while you lost the 2019 points, if you buy direct now you do get the current incentives - which I really do believe will be the lowest prices we’re likely to see! - AND you get the lower 100-point direct minimum? And if you wait a couple of days, you’ll be in the 10 day window to change your mind or switch to the new incentives. If you wait, you’ll likely pay more per point (as it’s possible they’ll raise prices and offer lower incentives), and need higher minimums. Think of buying now as getting extra incentive for those 2020 points you’d get buying August of next year. ;-)

Though I do hear you on wanting the “double” points. I kept debating whether I should add a small CCV contract to the direct purchase I was making, and crossing from 8/31 to 9/1 (as I also have a SEP UY) just took that urgency away for me, since I wouldn’t get the 2019 points. Which is silly, because I’d get $40 off per point if I did it now. But CCV is a 50 point minimum not 25, so I’ll just wait as I shouldn’t spend the extra money now anyway. If I could’ve gotten 25 points I’d have done it.

 

[Prince John Robin Hood]

I am not sure why you are betting on a spike in unemployment when the reality is people are still coming back from government mandated shutdowns at this point which will fight increases in unemployment. You will also notice much of the unemployment currently is stemming from those under 25 years of age which is double that of those over 25.

Some small businesses are hanging by a thread right now and unfortunately won't make it. A lot of large companies are laying off employees and this will likely accelerate in 2021. Layoffs haven't been limited to the airlines or those under 25. Opening up businesses isn't what's stimulating the economy, it's the cheap money being handed out to corporations. Once that dries up they'll cut payroll to insulate profit margins. Unemployment is high right now and employment gains will slow in the coming months.

 

[sethschroeder]

Some small businesses are hanging by a thread right now and unfortunately won't make it. A lot of large companies are laying off employees and this will likely accelerate in 2021. Layoffs haven't been limited to the airlines or those under 25. Opening up businesses isn't what's stimulating the economy, it's the cheap money being handed out to corporations. Once that dries up they'll cut payroll to insulate profit margins. Unemployment is high right now and employment gains will slow in the coming months.

And I never said others wouldn't lay off people. I have actually stated as such previously. I do not however agree with the comment I responded to though that said a "spike in unemployment". I take that as a dramatic increase in unemployment.

Also did you review the data I sent a disproportionate number of individuals that are younger and on temporary layoff? Where 16-24 year olds have 2x the unemployment rate as of those over 25. Also how temporary unemployment is 758% of a year ago while permanent job loss is at 202%.

Now temporary unemployment is absolutely going to go up in my mind overall though I don't think the all up unemployment is going to be spiking.

You can also see that temporary job loss is typically significantly less than permanent job loss as well:

https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/reasons-for-unemployment.htm

 

[poofyo101]

Think I may pull the trigger for 200 point direct at RIV. really really hate the resale restriction though but this might be the cheapest direct points will ever be again.

 

[Prince John Robin Hood]

And I never said others wouldn't lay off people. I have actually stated as such previously. I do not however agree with the comment I responded to though that said a "spike in unemployment". I take that as a dramatic increase in unemployment.

Also did you review the data I sent a disproportionate number of individuals that are younger and on temporary layoff? Where 16-24 year olds have 2x the unemployment rate as of those over 25. Also how temporary unemployment is 758% of a year ago while permanent job loss is at 202%.

Now temporary unemployment is absolutely going to go up in my mind overall though I don't think the all up unemployment is going to be spiking.

You can also see that temporary job loss is typically significantly less than permanent job loss as well:

https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/reasons-for-unemployment.htm

I'm thinking when we look at unemployment in 6 months it will be worse then it is currently. Keep in mind the U.S. government data has misclassifications which they've acknowledged making the numbers look better than they are.

Government programs helping employers pay their employees are coming to an end. Unfortunately this will mean layoffs and terminations are likely to accelerate.

This recession is unique in that it's hitting the global economy at the same time. WDW attendance will be low for years most likely, meaning fewer DVC tours and fewer onsite prospective buyers. If Disney elects to not offer another round of incentives by early 2021 I'd be very surprised. They're big enough they can afford not too but I doubt they'll want sales to slow too much.

 

[sethschroeder]

Government programs helping employers pay their employees are coming to an end.

And every single program is not going to just be cut off or not adjusted and or have alternatives regardless of political party in control after November.

Like I said permanent job loss will go up but temporary will go down a fairly significant number. Temporary is built partly around government restrictions on businesses some around furloughs.

This recession is unique in that it's hitting the global economy at the same time. WDW attendance will be low for years most likely, meaning fewer DVC tours and fewer onsite prospective buyers.

Which is a small subset of actual DVC owners and likely not enough for Disney to really worry since they can account for that percentage of business and likely already adjusted projections.

 

[sethschroeder]

There is a huge difference between this month and next month.

Sales projections, budget, targets were all originally created way back in 2019 for the whole fiscal year. Starting next month new fiscal year and likely fully new projections and budget numbers taking in to account current world events and reduction in sales.

 

[Where'sPiglet?]

My resolve is wearing thin.

I still have concerns about the economy and the safety of traveling in the near term, but the blue card minimum going up AGAIN and the current incentives are making me reconsider waiting for Disneyland Tower. DLT has apparently been approved by a commission, but not by the Anaheim City Council, so it's still a gamble that it even happens. Also, it will probably be really expensive and really high point values.

So, I'm thinking about buying 100 points at Copper Creek. In hindsight, I should have bought when it was 195 and had a 75 point minimum for the blue card, but here we are. Those thoughts are why I'm thinking about buying now before things go up AGAIN. CCV is one of the best values of the current incentives and I dislike the Riviera points chart and resale restrictions. I could add points at BLT and/or Poly (a 50-50 split), but they cost more per point to buy in and then the expiration years are different, so I'd lose benefits for the last 6 years of Poly, if I even still have the contract.

I'm thinking about if I do get 100 points at CCV, to split them into two 50-point contracts. This way, I could sell one of them and then buy, say, 75 at Disneyland Tower if the minimum is 125 at that time, but then I don't think 50 is enough for CCV. Maybe it would better to sell my 125-point Poly or 80-point BLT resale if I want to add on at DLT in the future, then all 100 points would be a single contract for the blue card and I could just get the minimum add-on at DLT, which might be 50 like it is at RIV and CCV.

I am admittedly overthinking this. I've had blue card FOMO from the beginning. My original plan was to get some points resale and the minimum direct, but I was on a wait list for BLT for so long that I bought resale points instead, and ...yeah. Once it came available, it was right after I'd closed on my resale and I didn't want to spend the money, especially since I think it was $220/point at the time. I kind of regret that now.

My resale points are actually pre-2019, so I could use them at this mythical Disneyland Tower, provided it exists AND I can get in at 7 months. I'm going in circles. Help? Thoughts?

 

[striker1064]

So, I'm thinking about buying 100 points at Copper Creek. In hindsight, I should have bought when it was 195 and had a 75 point minimum for the blue card, but here we are. Those thoughts are why I'm thinking about buying now before things go up AGAIN. CCV is one of the best values of the current incentives and I dislike the Riviera points chart and resale restrictions. I could add points at BLT and/or Poly (a 50-50 split), but they cost more per point to buy in and then the expiration years are different, so I'd lose benefits for the last 6 years of Poly, if I even still have the contract.

I'm thinking about if I do get 100 points at CCV, to split them into two 50-point contracts. This way, I could sell one of them and then buy, say, 75 at Disneyland Tower if the minimum is 125 at that time, but then I don't think 50 is enough for CCV.

I've gotta be completely honest, as someone who owns CCV, 50 points is not enough. Those studios are a nice cheap price nightly, but they can be difficult to book year-round. I have no qualms about going CCV over RIV despite the higher price if you like it better (because the two resorts are very different, so you should get the one you like most). However, if you're not buying a fixed week, I'd very strongly recommend you get enough CCV points for a 1-br so you aren't locked out of the time you want to go. Those studios go fast.

And then, if you're buying more points, we're getting into a deeper philosophical discussion in that you should really go resale for a larger contract, because the savings are fairly significant. I suppose 150 at $195 direct isn't too terrible if you value direct perks that much, but off the top of my head I'm guessing you could get 150 resale at $145-155, so that's a $6,000 - $7,500 markup for perks. That's not nothing.

I dunno, lots to think about there. My strong feeling though is it's not smart to buy a small non-FW CCV contract that can only get you regular studio stays unless you like the idea of fighting for your booking for basically all of fall through Princess Half Marathon weekend in February, plus spotty availability through Flower & Garden, and all the way through the points charts increasing in cost for the summer in late June (and, as someone who just booked that time period, even late June and into the summer is spotty).

 

[UrsulaWantsYourSoul]

Disneyland Tower won't be here for probably 3 years (if at all but I'm betting it will) - that's a lot of fun vacations between now and then. And like you said you can use your direct points at DLT at 7 months. DLT is going to have veeeeerrry few 1/2/3 bedrooms but a TON of studios (which only hold 4 not 5). So if you're ok with a studio for 4 or less, you should be fine at 7 month window I'm guessing especially if you book at 7 months - so many of Disneyland visitors are locals so the pressure for reservations at restaurants / hotels tends to be more relaxed. Grand Cal just has so few villas. Buying not at Riviera gives you some options to sell via resale in a few years if you're really itching for some DLT at that time.