sethschroeder
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Feb 24, 2013
- Messages
- 9,439
I'm betting on a spike in unemployment and an ongoing recession. The amount of stimulus that has been injected into the worldwide economy is massive and will be coming to an end.
Not sure why you think there is a terrible chance that better discounts come in 2021 just because of sales data from August.
Metrics have likely been redefined for reduced sales, they don't have any WDW resort under construction or nearing completion that they need to rip through RIV to get it sold out, and 95% of the population is not taking any or very minimal trips in all of 2020/possibly first half of 2021 which means there is an extra ordinary amount of saved discretionary funds for middle/upper class families when they start filing back in to WDW over the next 18 months (DVC seems to understand the long game right now based on things like resale restrictions but that can always change).
Also note that there have been multiple reports of "exciting" new membership benefits in the pipeline that we could see roll out. Which lines up with doubling down on benefits or soft value vs giving away actual cash.
Finally I am just not sure how much more they really would sell if they did even an extra $5-$10/point discount for the 125+ points. If they are raising prices now it seems they don't think doing additional discounts will be that beneficial.
I am not sure why you are betting on a spike in unemployment when the reality is people are still coming back from government mandated shutdowns at this point which will fight increases in unemployment. You will also notice much of the unemployment currently is stemming from those under 25 years of age which is double that of those over 25.
https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea10.htm
You will also notice a vastly larger number of temporary job loss than normal times as well:
https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea11.htm
This temporary job loss can turn in to permanent, it can turn in to being brought back then let go, or they can be called back to work.