It would seem a lot of people are placing a lot of emphasis on the IHME models in their prediction of park opening. At first, I was very impressed with the site - it looked like it had a lot of great data. But I have been testing a lot of the outputs from their models against my own statistics I've been collating, and now concluded that their models are flawed. I won't bore everybody with how I've come to that conclusion, but I now have little faith in their predictions, and I think their models are overly optimistic about what is going to happen in the USA. In particular I think they are overly optimistic with how quickly numbers are going to drop after the peak (their estimate for Italy was way off, for example). So on that basis, I think there is now zero chance of opening on 1st June. I would place 1st July as best case scenario, but mid to late July as a more realistic date. Which would be bad news for me, as we are meant to arrive 6th July for 2 weeks. But on the positive side, August looks like a dead cert to me, and all this talk of will it be open for Xmas is just unnecessary scaremongering.
But I do worry that a lot of businesses in the US seem to be putting a lot of faith in the IHME models on when to re-open, and I just think that faith is a touch misplaced.