I share your concerns about the crowds, because we will be there during the same time. The Best Days info seems to show that this week will be less crazy, for the most part than the two weeks prior and the week that follows. I think you and I have hit the luckiest time in the way of having the crowds be as low as we would have expected them to be based on info from the last few years.
My suspicion about the rooms being booked as heavily as they are is largely due to convention traffic. With all the conventions that were suddenly displaced by the hurricanes, I think that it only makes sense that several of them made the quick move to Disney. So, with the conventions, you have booked rooms, but you do not neccessarily have crammed parks.
After reading all the reports of ADR difficulties, it seems that most of those reports are for the two weeks prior to our stay. Yes, "must have" ADR's are gone at this point, but there is still a lot of availablility. I have made a few last minute tweaks to my itinerary without much difficulty.
You and I are going to have to go with a good plan, which I already hopefully have. We will need to use FP as much as possible for the popular rides. It will help if we will arrive at the parks early and tackle the "must do" rides early. I am really looking forward to this trip.
The last time we were there was in December of 2003, during the same week. It was find until the Friday before Christmas and even then it was not that bad, unless you had little kids that just had to ride everything in Fantasyland at 2pm. Basically, there is enough extra pixie dust with the holiday stuff to make the possibly increased crowds become not that much of an issue at all.
Happy planning. Maggie