CDC Notifies States, Large Cities To Prepare For Vaccine Distribution As Soon As Late October

[*DisneyDreamer]

Just wanted to say how wonderful it is that we are having conversations about how best to roll out the vaccines that work and have the luxury of complaining about missed targets and criticising policy. Think it's appropriate to take a beat to recognize how staggeringly miraculous it is that the world has been able to get here so fast and all the people involved. I get the roll out is not perfect but anyone who knows anything at all about human history and disease should acknowledge how lucky we are to have avoided the millions and millions of lives that could have been lost, thanks science nerds who might be reading this

You’re absolutely right, it’s pretty astounding that we even have vaccine candidates right now. And I’m trying to remember that. Along with reminding myself that everything I’m upset about is small problems compared to so many other people. Fatigue is just setting in hard as we approach a year of this and feeling like life continues to slip by.

 

[Jonfw2]

For people who wonder if the economy will come back when this ends, the day I found out I was getting vaxxed, I booked a ten day vacation.

 

[Colleen27]

Here is my thought: park entry will not require a vaccine but certain experiences- character dinners, VIP stuff- may. And it would be 18 and over.

But that raises the same questions. How many childless adults are going to spend $60 for a mediocre meal with a bunch of people wandering around in character costumes? Would it even be enough to make offering those character meals worthwhile? VIP experiences, sure; I think that has a more adult audience. Maybe the fireworks dessert parties too, though when those return I sort of feel like families that still want some distance will be a bit part of the target audience. But character interaction is primarily a kid thing, so limiting that to adults is likely to be a tough sell.

The one area that is going to be interesting to watch is cruises. Employees will be vaccinated, for sure. It'll be interesting to see if cruise lines require it, and if so how strict they will be.

I expect the cruise lines will punt. Rather than making a decision on their own, they'll defer to the entry requirements for their ports of call (as they do with passports now). That way they can offer options for people who did get the vaccine and for those who will not (or cannot) without any blow-back from customers because the policies are set elsewhere. Which will likely mean that many Caribbean cruises may be open to the unvaccinated because island governments desperate for a return of tourist dollars will have less strict requirements, but those going to Canada, Europe, etc. will likely require proof of vaccination.

Where are you seeing 2022 for a vaccine for kids? Everything I have seen and heard is mid-late 2021.

As @EACarlson pointed out, the early candidates have barely started testing on kids yet. And the first round of testing is expected to focus on the 12 to 15/17 (Pfizer has authorization for 16+ right now, Moderna for 18+), with a second round to come later to assess safety and effectiveness in younger kids. I think the article I saw breaking down the likely timeline came from the AP, and it set out a multi-phase process where testing on teens starts almost immediately and is complete around mid-year, while testing on younger children is likely to wait until there is evidence it is well-tolerated in teens. Based on those assumptions, we should have a vaccine for 12-17 in mid-to-late 2021 and for children under 12 about 6 months later, assuming there are no setbacks in the trial data.

 

[Heigh-Ho]

For people who wonder if the economy will come back when this ends, the day I found out I was getting vaxxed, I booked a ten day vacation.

That doesn't mean the economy will come back just because you personally booked a vacation. But have fun on it, 10 days sounds nice and long

 

[skeeter31]

That doesn't mean the economy will come back just because you personally booked a vacation. But have fun on it, 10 days sounds nice and long

Yeah not exactly a scientific study there. If your job wasn’t effected to a large degree, your plans won’t really change. But for the people who lost jobs, lost wages, lost homes, etc they’re not going to flock back to Disney just because they got a shot in their arm.

 

[tarheelmjfan]

Yeah not exactly a scientific study there. If your job wasn’t effected to a large degree, your plans won’t really change. But for the people who lost jobs, lost wages, lost homes, etc they’re not going to flock back to Disney just because they got a shot in their arm.

This is true. Our vacation money for the foreseeable future has been reallocated to paying bills, since DH lost his job in early November. We'll be rebuilding our emergency fund, before we even consider a vacation.

 

[dvcgirl67]

I expect the cruise lines will punt. Rather than making a decision on their own, they'll defer to the entry requirements for their ports of call (as they do with passports now). That way they can offer options for people who did get the vaccine and for those who will not (or cannot) without any blow-back from customers because the policies are set elsewhere. Which will likely mean that many Caribbean cruises may be open to the unvaccinated because island governments desperate for a return of tourist dollars will have less strict requirements, but those going to Canada, Europe, etc. will likely require proof of vaccination.

I understand your point about the Caribbean and tourist dollars, but those islands also cannot handle outbreaks with the weak healthcare infrastructure that they have. And allowing vaccinated and unvaccinated passengers still allows for outbreaks on ships. I would be vaccinated, so I'd be good, but others will get sick....if we've learned anything, we've learned that this virus will find a way to a host if there's one available. And then as a vaccinated cruiser I would worry that I'm going to get stuck on a ship, or unable to disembark at a desired port stop because of others on board....etc.

Agree that anyone going on a cruise that visits wealthier countries like Canada or those of the EU should expect that they'll need to be vaccinated. They won't be able to throw hissy fits like the anti-maskers I see on planes in my twitter feed every day. They'll have to make a decision to get vaccinated...or not travel to certain places. I suspect some people will "take a stand" and not get the vaccine, and therefore miss out on seeing a lot of this world, but that will be their loss. Kind of like when my in-laws legit cancelled a booked trip to France back in 2003 over the "Freedom Fries" deal. They made their stand....but by the time they had forgiven the French.....they were too old to travel. So they never saw France.

 

[dvcgirl67]

For people who wonder if the economy will come back when this ends, the day I found out I was getting vaxxed, I booked a ten day vacation.

Well, I think that travel will certainly get a big bounce from the vaccines. Overall though, I believe consumer spending was down a bit for the year in the U.S.....albeit rebounding in a big way in Q3. I think what we're going to see if money moving from one bucket to another within that consumer spending umbrella. So...like you, we'll definitely spend more on services once we're vaccinated, but less on consumer goods as we did throughout the pandemic.

I own a decent sized pet care business in my area (pet-sitting and dog walking), and so I can definitely tell you that people in my area, for the most part....are not taking vacations. This past week is always the busiest of the year for me with respect to vacation travelers....this year.....not so much. And because I service so many homes with NYC commuters....I can tell you they're not doing that either in large numbers. So I have hard data on that kind of thing in my area anyway.

Where are they spending? They're spending on "stuff" for their homes. People are doing big home upgrades, both inside and out. And just buying lots and lots of stuff. We did the same here, with lots of spending on our back yard, front porch, etc. We didn't spend nearly as much as we would have on vacations, but we spent much more than we normally would have on our home in a regular year.

So I feel like money, for those who have not suffered big job losses/financial difficulties, will move from one bucket....to another. But...being on the service side of this economy, I for one am happy to hear that you're planning on a 10 day vacation....as are the people who work for me. I've only been able to bring back two of my six people, and just part-time.

 

[Jonfw2]

Well, I think that travel will certainly get a big bounce from the vaccines. Overall though, I believe consumer spending was down a bit for the year in the U.S.....albeit rebounding in a big way in Q3. I think what we're going to see if money moving from one bucket to another within that consumer spending umbrella. So...like you, we'll definitely spend more on services once we're vaccinated, but less on consumer goods as we did throughout the pandemic.

I own a decent sized pet care business in my area (pet-sitting and dog walking), and so I can definitely tell you that people in my area, for the most part....are not taking vacations. This past week is always the busiest of the year for me with respect to vacation travelers....this year.....not so much. And because I service so many homes with NYC commuters....I can tell you they're not doing that either in large numbers. So I have hard data on that kind of thing in my area anyway.

Where are they spending? They're spending on "stuff" for their homes. People are doing big home upgrades, both inside and out. And just buying lots and lots of stuff. We did the same here, with lots of spending on our back yard, front porch, etc. We didn't spend nearly as much as we would have on vacations, but we spent much more than we normally would have on our home in a regular year.

So I feel like money, for those who have not suffered big job losses/financial difficulties, will move from one bucket....to another. But...being on the service side of this economy, I for one am happy to hear that you're planning on a 10 day vacation....as are the people who work for me. I've only been able to bring back two of my six people, and just part-time.

Good analysis!
And for the record: I’m not bragging here. I’m pointing out something we should see in all industrialized parts of the world- pent up demand getting unleashed.

 

[dvcgirl67]

Good analysis!
And for the record: I’m not bragging here. I’m pointing out something we should see in all industrialized parts of the world- pent up demand getting unleashed.

Oh, I didn't read it that way. We're going somewhere this year. We're just watching South Africa because that's where we have a lot of money parked in a vacation that we had to postpone. If we can't make it there, we're going *somewhere* once we get that vaccine. I can't wait to travel!

There is most certainly pent-up demand among white-collar workers for sure. I expect my business to begin to really recover from where we are as the vaccine rollout picks up steam. I'm not sure if my dog-walking (commuters to NYC) business will full recover until maybe the fall of 2021. And some of it will likely not come back due to a certain percentage deciding to work from home permanently, or at least more than before the pandemic. Hoping to bring back another two people by the end of Q2.

 

[oompa_lumpia]

I eat my gf's cooking. A vaccine doesn't scare me.

 

[Heigh-Ho]

Good analysis!
And for the record: I’m not bragging here. I’m pointing out something we should see in all industrialized parts of the world- pent up demand getting unleashed.

I didn't think you were bragging just that you booking a vacation isn't going to bring the economy back. The travel industry is unknown right now how it rebounds between cruising, international travel, and even domestic travel. It took a while after September 11th for the travel industry to recover and that was without a global pandemic where people could contract a virus very easily, border closures potential vaccine requirements and more and that's not including any economic rebounding at large.

Take your trip and have fun

 

[anniemae]

Just heard on the news that Moderna is considering doing half doses. I guess people would get two half doses. I thought they were going to do one dose then not do the second dose, but this is a little different. Dr. Fauci seems to be against the idea. He says we should follow the science and go with how the vaccine was tested and not deviate from how the vaccine was used in the trials. I have to say I agree with him. I hope we don't mess this up.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Just heard on the news that Moderna is considering doing half doses. I guess people would get two half doses. I thought they were going to do one dose then not do the second dose, but this is a little different. Dr. Fauci seems to be against the idea. He says we should follow the science and go with how the vaccine was tested and not deviate from how the vaccine was used in the trials. I have to say I agree with him. I hope we don't mess this up.

People seem to be in a panic really all of a sudden. The trials were done a specific way with specific instructions. Deviations from this, like what england is doing, like skipping the second dose or messing with the formula, well that stuff should be concerning to the public. We're supposed to be instilling trust in the public and I'm not so sure we can do that when we just come up with things on the fly hoping for the best.

 

[anniemae]

People seem to be in a panic really all of a sudden. The trials were done a specific way with specific instructions. Deviations from this, like what england is doing, like skipping the second dose or messing with the formula, well that stuff should be concerning to the public. We're supposed to be instilling trust in the public and I'm not so sure we can do that when we just come up with things on the fly hoping for the best.

I wish everyone would just take a breath and follow the science. We could really mess things up if we just start panicking and injecting people without thinking about the consequences of messing with how the vaccine was tested. It could come back to bite us. I hope they listen to Fauci.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

I wish everyone would just take a breath and follow the science. We could really mess things up if we just start panicking and injecting people without thinking about the consequences of messing with how the vaccine was tested. It could come back to bite us. I hope they listen to Fauci.

I can't say I'm always impressed with how vaccine roll outs have been happening here in the States, it's been disappointing at times but that last thing I want is to create such a double work mess such that we're dealing with large scale issues for so much longer than necessary because we rushed through things. Forget getting covid eradicated by fall (or end of year I forget what was said) touting a 95% efficacy rate..which seems to have been thrown to the side in favor of getting some protection by the masses.

But to that point it really wasn't good to give people any deadlines. People are absolutely livid because by summer they may not be getting vaccinated. People, understandably so, needed some hope, but I think sticking with just giving the order of who is getting vaccinated but not give timelines might have been better. Because the roll out is even slower than originally projected it's like a light switch and the world is panicking. Where is all this "sacrifice for the greater good" spiel now? As much as I'm eagerly awaiting the day I am told I don't need to worry about distance or a mask I will wait longer if it means more people have high levels of protection at least right out of the gate. I suppose to some the greater good means that some layer of protection is better than the trials in which it was studied off of. I honestly can't argue with that. I guess I just want more to begin with in hopes that if there are subsequent run-ins with COVID there's a dramatic difference based on having that higher protection.

 

[amylevan]

Just heard on the news that Moderna is considering doing half doses. I guess people would get two half doses. I thought they were going to do one dose then not do the second dose, but this is a little different. Dr. Fauci seems to be against the idea. He says we should follow the science and go with how the vaccine was tested and not deviate from how the vaccine was used in the trials. I have to say I agree with him. I hope we don't mess this up.

What was the point of the trials, the EUA paperwork, and waiting for approval to pass if we’re not going to follow what all of those did? If we’re just going to go off script, why bother with the script to begin with? Heck, just give Astra-Zeneca and JJ permission to have at it now too.

 

[*DisneyDreamer]

Just heard on the news that Moderna is considering doing half doses. I guess people would get two half doses. I thought they were going to do one dose then not do the second dose, but this is a little different. Dr. Fauci seems to be against the idea. He says we should follow the science and go with how the vaccine was tested and not deviate from how the vaccine was used in the trials. I have to say I agree with him. I hope we don't mess this up.

Yeah...I really hope they don’t do this. Seems like a really good way to screw things up even more.

 

[anniemae]

Yeah...I really hope they don’t do this. Seems like a really good way to screw things up even more.

I agree. I think the problem is that everyone is freaking out at how long it's taking. I wish everyone would just pause for a moment and stay the course. If we start cutting doses or skipping the second dose, I think we are only hurting ourselves and potentially lowering the effectiveness of the vaccine in our rush to "just get everyone done and vaccinated."

 

[mom2rtk]

I agree. I think the problem is that everyone is freaking out at how long it's taking. I wish everyone would just pause for a moment and stay the course. If we start cutting doses or skipping the second dose, I think we are only hurting ourselves and potentially lowering the effectiveness of the vaccine in our rush to "just get everyone done and vaccinated."

We all need to pause for a moment while the well connected suck up the limited initial doses (not medical, I'm all for that of course). Like the executives and staff at the pharma companies. The youthful politicians. Plenty of others of course.

The rest of us schlubs will eventually have our turns.

But yeah, regardless, cutting the dose seems like a terrible idea.