Cases rising or dropping by you?

[RamblingMad]

Just saw CAs count: 4,216. That's a big leap.

 

[bookwormde]

Please educate us on how you calculated that.
World:
Deaths: 465,944
Cases: 8,894,711
Percent: 5.23%

US
Deaths: 121,900
Cases: 2,326,251
Percent: 5.24%

Yes there was a big assumption that 5 to 10x more people had it than we were capturing with testing. Now that testing is widening out, the incremental increases from positive asystematic tests is putting that in question.

I have done some infection time frame cohort tracking and the range is between 6 and 7.5% This higher rate comes from the fact that those who are dying now on great part were confirmed as infected 8 to 14 days ago so the infection as of 10 days ago is the most accurate denominator

The biggest variable is the death rate in special populations (high risk) and the infection rate for those groups

 

[spiders]

Please educate us on how you calculated that.
World:
Deaths: 465,944
Cases: 8,894,711
Percent: 5.23%

US
Deaths: 121,900
Cases: 2,326,251
Percent: 5.24%

And per the CDC data as of 6/17, a total of 103,000 deaths of which 35,000 were 85 or older and an additional 27,000 were over 75. The life expectancy in the US is 78. I'm not arguing that there aren't high risk categories and that people who are high risk should definitely take the most extreme precautions. I am saying though if my options are take my chances with COVID or deplete my assets then I'll take the COVID.

I have an essential job. It is very easy for me to join the crowd that says you should stay home until this is over but as I originally stated when it comes to people in higher education, they also have jobs right now. I'm not going to sit here and pretend that everyone is doing just as rosy. We are now well over 90 days into this and there is virtually no chance this is going to be over in another 90. Most financial experts recommend you have 180 days of savings which we all know most people don't to begin with. There are a lot of people out there where this situation isn't as simple as stay at home.

 

[sam_gordon]

And per the CDC data as of 6/17, a total of 103,000 deaths of which 35,000 were 85 or older and an additional 27,000 were over 75. The life expectancy in the US is 78. I'm not arguing that there aren't high risk categories and that people who are high risk should definitely take the most extreme precautions. I am saying though if my options are take my chances with COVID or deplete my assets then I'll take the COVID.

I have an essential job. It is very easy for me to join the crowd that says you should stay home until this is over but as I originally stated when it comes to people in higher education, they also have jobs right now. I'm not going to sit here and pretend that everyone is doing just as rosy. We are now well over 90 days into this and there is virtually no chance this is going to be over in another 90. Most financial experts recommend you have 180 days of savings which we all know most people don't to begin with. There are a lot of people out there where this situation isn't as simple as stay at home.

And this has to do with your statement that if someone catches COVID, they have a 1.5% chance of dying how? Or are you isolating a specific age group.

I have an essential job also. I have been to work, stores, car shopping, and other "out of house" activities. I don't know what that has to do with the statement you made. The one about how "educated" people know if they catch COVID, they only have a 1.5% chance of dying.

 

[spiders]

And this has to do with your statement that if someone catches COVID, they have a 1.5% chance of dying how? Or are you isolating a specific age group.

I have an essential job also. I have been to work, stores, car shopping, and other "out of house" activities. I don't know what that has to do with the statement you made. The one about how "educated" people know if they catch COVID, they only have a 1.5% chance of dying.

Obviously it is higher, Sam. I guess I wasn't updated on the most current figure. But I will say that I follow aviation closely. Delta has 90,000 employees. Obviously some have taken the voluntary leave. They reported this week that they had 500 confirmed cases and 10 deaths. So, basically just over 0.5% got it and of those that got it, 2% died -- all of this in a work group that is obviously traveling quite a bit. Everything we do has risk, I still find it an acceptable risk. I'm not about ready to stand shoulder to shoulder at a concert but I also don't think this is as fatal as people think it is. I don't think we shouldn't have done anything and I also don't think we should have done everything that we did.

 

[sam_gordon]

Obviously it is higher, Sam. I guess I wasn't updated on the most current figure. But I will say that I follow aviation closely. Delta has 90,000 employees. Obviously some have taken the voluntary leave. They reported this week that they had 500 confirmed cases and 10 deaths. So, basically just over 0.5% got it and of those that got it, 2% died -- all of this in a work group that is obviously traveling quite a bit. Everything we do has risk, I still find it an acceptable risk. I'm not about ready to stand shoulder to shoulder at a concert but I also don't think this is as fatal as people think it is. I don't think we shouldn't have done anything and I also don't think we should have done everything that we did.

But has Delta tested all of it's employees? If they haven't, then your math is wrong. According to this article, https://www.wvlt.tv/2020/06/19/500-delta-employees-test-positive-for-covid-19/, they STARTED testing all employees this week. If you've got something that says they've completed testing on everyone, I'll admit *I* was wrong.

I have no problems with ANYONE taking whatever risks they want to. I do have a problem with people presenting "facts" that aren't true.

 

[godisney14]

https://www.disboards.com/threads/the-i-want-to-argue-thread.3797874/page-20#post-62028834

 

[Jrb1979]

Educated people know that there is a chance you could get COVID and then have a 1.5% chance of dying from it. Educated people also know that there is a 100% chance that your life will be really miserable if you run out of money.

No one is saying to go back into a lockdown. What's the problem with having mandatory masks and strict social distancing in place? Cause apparently it's a lot to ask. Businesses can open but with social distancing in place. For some reason many are against that and just want to go back to normal.

 

[Mango7100]

No one is saying to go back into a lockdown. What's the problem with having mandatory masks and strict social distancing in place? Cause apparently it's a lot to ask. Businesses can open but with social distancing in place. For some reason many are against that and just want to go back to normal.

Yup. People were calling for businesses to reopen..OK we will reopen but can you follow some simple rules like wear a mask and stay 6 feet apart...what? no! I can’t do that! I don’t want to! My freedom!

 

[okeydokey]

No one is saying to go back into a lockdown. What's the problem with having mandatory masks and strict social distancing in place? Cause apparently it's a lot to ask. Businesses can open but with social distancing in place. For some reason many are against that and just want to go back to normal.

This is it exactly. Nobody wants to close everything up again, and there exists a very simple and easy way to keep the businesses open by wearing masks and social distancing, but that, for some crazy reason, seems too much to ask.

 

[a1tinkfans]

Too many numbers, too many people using different criteria, too many opinions on What the numbers actually mean. All I know is Cases are Up in our area and too many people are now tired//frustrated/refusing/selfish and Not wearing masks nor distancing

 

[Live4travel]

This is possibly why some states are showing a recent spike in Covid cases:

From CDC:
"A positive test result shows you may have antibodies from an infection with the virus that causes COVID-19, or possibly from infection with a related virus from the same family of viruses (called coronavirus), such as one that causes the common cold."
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/testing/serology-overview.html

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/...-test-data-pennsylvania-georgia-texas/611935/
Florida began antibody testing in May. I found these just with a quick Google search for Florida.
https://www.sun-sentinel.com/corona...0200529-cnq4rkcpt5a47hi63fbcaibwte-story.html

https://www.local10.com/news/local/...south-florida-as-leaders-await-state-results/

 

[MamaLema]

I’m feeling pretty good about our area. Finally going to Stage 2 tomorrow. The majority of people here are wearing masks and social distancing.

 

[Kitty 34]

Bars and restaurants opened up I think June 15 and already headline news out of Lansing, MI stated 14 confirmed cases linked to a bar and grill in their town.

I was toying with visiting an area casino this week, was going to go early, use all precautions, etc......but nah; with my lung disease I just can't justify that enjoyment that was once in my life right now.

 

[Lumpy1106]

Cases are up in CA, but hospitalizations and the AGE of people getting it is WAY down. Same goes for FL - and a lot of other places I would imagine but I haven't been keeping track of everywhere. I don't want people getting sick, but I see that as a good thing because;

1. Younger people ending up in intensive care is the exception, not the rule as it is for older people
2. With recent events, the trend was predictable. I'll leave it at that. Bars opening too - I thought that was premature.

A negative I could see from this trend is that older people generally understand and abide by the full length of the quarantine if they do get sick - I think younger people would be more inclined to head back out if they are feeling better.

 

[gwynne]

Cases are up in CA, but hospitalizations and the AGE of people getting it is WAY down. Same goes for FL - and a lot of other places I would imagine but I haven't been keeping track of everywhere. I don't want people getting sick, but I see that as a good thing because;

1. Younger people ending up in intensive care is the exception, not the rule as it is for older people
2. With recent events, the trend was predictable. I'll leave it at that. Bars opening too - I thought that was premature.

A negative I could see from this trend is that older people generally understand and abide by the full length of the quarantine if they do get sick - I think younger people would be more inclined to head back out if they are feeling better.

I thought this article was interesting. It notes the hospitals in Florida are seeing more folks in their late 20's, 30's, and 40's.

https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local...62/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&amp

 

[RamblingMad]

Going through the roof here in AZ. We’re screwed when flu season hits. Even if a good treatment options are available then, there won’t be enough ICU beds. I’m definitely getting a flu shot this year.

 

[FlightlessDuck]

Trend continues downward, even with a few blips along the way

 

[DVC-Don]

Still on the way up in central Florida.

 

[DisneyMomx7]

I’m in NJ and ours are dropping. DD lives in Florida though and the cases are spiking there