Calling all DVC MATH gurus... Target price per point for all points over remaining life of contract?

[Sandisw]

RIV expires 2070 and CCV 2068. It's not possible to get 2020 or 2021 points anymore, so these have less time than your chart. This doesn't change the math really, but RIV doesn't give you 49 years of points anymore.

When the chart was created, though, Dec UY was still getting 2020 points. All are still getting 2021. But, as of today, there are only 48 years, 2 months to use those points left for RIV, and 46 years, 2 months for CCV owners to use points.

 

[DVCSunDevil]

I think analysis before any decision to make a major purchase is important. But the analysis is only one piece of the puzzle. There are lot of other factors/questions that go into buying DVC. When I bought my BCV resale contract last year, I did in depth analysis to see just how much I would be saving on our yearly trips to WDW. I came to two conclusions after all the analysis and spreadsheets. 1) We would be saving a lot. 2) I probably overdid it on the analysis. I realized that all I really needed to know is that I would be saving a lot of money to stay at deluxe WDW resorts by owning DVC. It is very easy to get "paralysis by analysis" when doing the math on a purchase like this. At some point, does it really matter if one method of analysis shows you are saving $2000 per week on your resort while another analysis shows you are saving $2,500 per week? Either way shows that the savings by owning DVC are significant. IMO, that's all that matters.

 

[DonMacGregor]

It is very easy to get "paralysis by analysis" when doing the math on a purchase like this. At some point, does it really matter if one method of analysis shows you are saving $2000 per week on your resort while another analysis shows you are saving $2,500 per week? Either way shows that the savings by owning DVC are significant. IMO, that's all that matters.

For me, I want to avoid the stress would come in AFTER I did all that analysis. I don't want to be worried about making all those trips on time, in the right year, banking, borrowing, etc. One year, 5 years down the road, a great opportunity to travel to Egypt, or Europe, etc. may come up that you grab with both fists, and now you've "blown" your DVC savings model. Or, maybe, you decide that an extra weekend at Aulani is in order.

For me, it's more of "it will all balance out, or it won't" attitude. For example, in early 2020, we, like so many others, did a good bit of Covid stockpiling (hoarding?) of canned and dry goods and frozen foods (no, we didn't hog the TP). Over the course of last year into this year, we actually found ourselves asking "hey, didn't we put some XXXX in the garage last year" and dipping into that stockpile out of convenience, not necessity. Conversely, we also cleaned out the pantry last month to make room for holiday supplies, and found a not-so-small amount of canned goods that had actually expired and had to be thrown away. Not to mention about 80% of the stuff we froze. Best-laid plans, as they say.

Obviously cans of chili and soup and frozen chicken aren't DVC points, but the idea that even the best planning can go off the tracks at some point down the road, based on myriad unforeseen events and forces is translatable.

 

[DVCSunDevil]

For me, I want to avoid the stress would come in AFTER I did all that analysis. I don't want to be worried about making all those trips on time, in the right year, banking, borrowing, etc. One year, 5 years down the road, a great opportunity to travel to Egypt, or Europe, etc. may come up that you grab with both fists, and now you've "blown" your DVC savings model. Or, maybe, you decide that an extra weekend at Aulani is in order.

For me, it's more of "it will all balance out, or it won't" attitude. For example, in early 2020, we, like so many others, did a good bit of Covid stockpiling (hoarding?) of canned and dry goods and frozen foods (no, we didn't hog the TP). Over the course of last year into this year, we actually found ourselves asking "hey, didn't we put some XXXX in the garage last year" and dipping into that stockpile out of convenience, not necessity. Conversely, we also cleaned out the pantry last month to make room for holiday supplies, and found a not-so-small amount of canned goods that had actually expired and had to be thrown away. Not to mention about 80% of the stuff we froze. Best-laid plans, as they say.

Obviously cans of chili and soup and frozen chicken aren't DVC points, but the idea that even the best planning can go off the tracks at some point down the road, based on myriad unforeseen events and forces is translatable.

I think once you are actually an owner managing the points is actually fun and not very stressful. Well, if you actually travel to the resorts, anyway.

I was more talking about how there are all sorts of calculations people do to see if it makes sense, like amortization schedules and predicted inflation calculators. IMO, that stuff is a little overkill when it comes to determining if DVC makes sense. It only takes some quick calculations to see how much money DVC saves on deluxe resorts. The bigger issue, to me, is the other questions that need to be answered before buying (how often do we see ourselves visiting 15 years down the line, are we ok with committing to the other financial aspects like park tickets and food, etc.). If the answers to those questions lead to DVC making sense for someone, then the question of "does DVC make financial sense" is easy and shouldn't take deep calculations to figure out. Spoiler alert: DVC pretty much makes financial sense every time (assuming someone can afford it).

 

[DonMacGregor]

I think once you are actually an owner managing the points is actually fun and not very stressful. Well, if you actually travel to the resorts, anyway.

I was more talking about how there are all sorts of calculations people do to see if it makes sense, like amortization schedules and predicted inflation calculators. IMO, that stuff is a little overkill when it comes to determining if DVC makes sense. It only takes some quick calculations to see how much money DVC saves on deluxe resorts. The bigger issue, to me, is the other questions that need to be answered before buying (how often do we see ourselves visiting 15 years down the line, are we ok with committing to the other financial aspects like park tickets and food, etc.). If the answers to those questions lead to DVC making sense for someone, then the question of "does DVC make financial sense" is easy and shouldn't take deep calculations to figure out. Spoiler alert: DVC pretty much makes financial sense every time (assuming someone can afford it).

That’s what I was responding to. People spend hours and hours doing spreadsheets and tables and calculations, and once they buy they have to make it all work or they feel they haven’t maximized their value. Next thing, they’re talking exit strategies.

I am an owner, and I don’t stress my points utilization. I don’t walk or stalk, and if I end up losing a handful of points one year, well stuff happens. I figure I have around 12,000 points or so over the lifetime of the various contracts, so losing 10 or 15 one year isn’t the end of the world.

 

[DVCSunDevil]

That’s what I was responding to. People spend hours and hours doing spreadsheets and tables and calculations, and once they buy they have to make it all work or they feel they haven’t maximized their value. Next thing, they’re talking exit strategies.

I am an owner, and I don’t stress my points utilization. I don’t walk or stalk, and if I end up losing a handful of points one year, well stuff happens. I figure I have around 12,000 points or so over the lifetime of the various contracts, so losing 10 or 15 one year isn’t the end of the world.

Without a doubt. I agree. We go every year, so we use pretty much all of our points naturally. We are going to lose 5 this year that we can't bank, but that's not too bad.

 

[DonMacGregor]

Without a doubt. I agree. We go every year, so we use pretty much all of our points naturally. We are going to lose 5 this year that we can't bank, but that's not too bad.

I saw someone on another thread say they (very seriously) were contemplating selling their contracts because they told themselves when they first became owners that if they ever wasted and points, they would sell.

To me, that’s like saying you’re going to quit the gym if you ever miss a day. Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face…

 

[DVCSunDevil]

I saw someone on another thread say they (very seriously) were contemplating selling their contracts because they told themselves when they first became owners that if they ever wasted and points, they would sell.

To me, that’s like saying you’re going to quit the gym if you ever miss a day. Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face…

That's crazy. I assume every owner will lose at least a handful of points from time to time. That's just the nature of things considering not every reservation lines up exactly with the number of points you have.

 

[miTnosnhoJ]

I think analysis before any decision to make a major purchase is important. But the analysis is only one piece of the puzzle. There are lot of other factors/questions that go into buying DVC. When I bought my BCV resale contract last year, I did in depth analysis to see just how much I would be saving on our yearly trips to WDW. I came to two conclusions after all the analysis and spreadsheets. 1) We would be saving a lot. 2) I probably overdid it on the analysis. I realized that all I really needed to know is that I would be saving a lot of money to stay at deluxe WDW resorts by owning DVC. It is very easy to get "paralysis by analysis" when doing the math on a purchase like this. At some point, does it really matter if one method of analysis shows you are saving $2000 per week on your resort while another analysis shows you are saving $2,500 per week? Either way shows that the savings by owning DVC are significant. IMO, that's all that matters.

This is very similar to my experience. We took the tour at BLT, and then the guide took us over in a van to VGF, which was then on sale. We loved the idea.

When we got home, I ran spreadsheets with the time value of money baked in. The analysis showed that it wasn't a slam dunk, but it wasn't a stupid decision either. It was about break even. The key questions at the end were "Will we commit to going every year, rather than every three or four as we have been doing?" and "Will this make us happy? Does it feel right?"

We made the decision to buy in. I knew it was the right decision when after committing, I felt no buyers remorse. We have enjoyed it ever since, as have our kids and now grandkids. We have since added on so we can enjoy 2BRs

 

[Chili327]

Lets slot in some current resale pricing to see if that changes anything......yes, it does (I've used OKW-E resale pricing)
Personally I would try and get CCV resale if buying another contract, a great mix of long contract, low cost and low point chart. Each to their own though.

View attachment 621439

My calculations show that of the WDW DVC contracts, Copper Creek is the winner from a price per point over the life of the contract perspective (without RIV incentives)

View attachment 621791

How do the current number stack up? (with new resorts added, etc.)

 

[tidefan]

I have always looked at this a little bit differently. I always assign a dollar value to the actual point itself. Here is an example using VGF. Scenario 1 is when we bought in 2013 at "$145 per point". Scenario 2 is if someone bought in 2023 at the "161 per point".

Let's just assume we are looking at 150 point contracts.

Scenario 1 - Original 150 point purchase at VGF - 50 years remaining on contract

Number of total points purchased = 50 years x 150 pts/year = 7,500 total points

Purchase price: $21,750

Total cost per ACTUAL point: =$21,750/7,500 = $2.90 per ACTUAL point

Scenario 2 - Summer 2023 Incentive 150 point purchase at VGF - 40 years remaining on contract

Number of total points purchased = 40 years x 150 pts/year = 6,000 total points

Purchase price: $24,150

Total cost per ACTUAL point: =$24,150/6,000 = $4.025 per ACTUAL point

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I have always maintained that you have to take into account each and every point and that the length of the contract is a much bigger deal than people let on. So let's suppose buyers in both scenarios were taking a weeklong, 125 point stay in January. We'll tack on the $7.33 in this current year's annual dues.

Scenario 1

Actual cost of stay: ($2.90 + $7.33) * 125 points = $1,278.75

Scenario 2

Actual cost of stay: ($4.025 + $7.33) * 125 points = $1,419.375


Anyway, this is how I look at it... BTW, that Scenario 1 is our exact situation. I figure that our weeklong stay at VGF1 in January will cost us $182.68 per night (which, since there are no checkout taxes at VGF, you are looking at a cash rate in the neighborhood of $164 per night + tax). This is potentially cheaper, cost-wise, than staying at POP...

 

[Jgc014]

I have always looked at this a little bit differently. I always assign a dollar value to the actual point itself. Here is an example using VGF. Scenario 1 is when we bought in 2013 at "$145 per point". Scenario 2 is if someone bought in 2023 at the "161 per point".

Let's just assume we are looking at 150 point contracts.

Scenario 1 - Original 150 point purchase at VGF - 50 years remaining on contract

Number of total points purchased = 50 years x 150 pts/year = 7,500 total points

Purchase price: $21,750

Total cost per ACTUAL point: =$21,750/7,500 = $2.90 per ACTUAL point

Scenario 2 - Summer 2023 Incentive 150 point purchase at VGF - 40 years remaining on contract

Number of total points purchased = 40 years x 150 pts/year = 6,000 total points

Purchase price: $24,150

Total cost per ACTUAL point: =$24,150/6,000 = $4.025 per ACTUAL point

-----------
I have always maintained that you have to take into account each and every point and that the length of the contract is a much bigger deal than people let on. So let's suppose buyers in both scenarios were taking a weeklong, 125 point stay in January. We'll tack on the $7.33 in this current year's annual dues.

Scenario 1

Actual cost of stay: ($2.90 + $7.33) * 125 points = $1,278.75

Scenario 2

Actual cost of stay: ($4.025 + $7.33) * 125 points = $1,419.375


Anyway, this is how I look at it... BTW, that Scenario 1 is our exact situation. I figure that our weeklong stay at VGF1 in January will cost us $182.68 per night (which, since there are no checkout taxes at VGF, you are looking at a cash rate in the neighborhood of $164 per night + tax). This is potentially cheaper, cost-wise, than staying at POP...

Thanks! I do think this is interesting to see laid out, but wanted to mention $2.90 in 2013 is the equivalent of about $3.80 today, so the per year cost in each scenario is fairly close adjusting for inflation.

 

[Ruttangel]

How do the current number stack up? (with new resorts added, etc.)

Ah thanks, but this is 2 years old now.
There are better sources of data out there that scalp Occompt site etc..
You can mess around and create your own cost per night like I’ve done here
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...ouid=112294580548222749122&rtpof=true&sd=true

 

[CVG]

It's time to add a comfort factor by converting these costs into price per square foot!

 

[tidefan]

Thanks! I do think this is interesting to see laid out, but wanted to mention $2.90 in 2013 is the equivalent of about $3.80 today, so the per year cost in each scenario is fairly close adjusting for inflation.

Perhaps, but the point really wasn't a then vs. now comparison other than the fact that I used it as an example. I just think that you have to think of every single point having a value and go from there.

That said, inflation makes purchases made 10-20 years ago look great!

 

[Cfabar1]

Buying 10 years ago is no longer an option for customers. It should, however, be a cautionary tale, to point out that a good time to buy is now, because you only get your 50 years (or less).

 

[tidefan]

Buying 10 years ago is no longer an option for customers. It should, however, be a cautionary tale, to point out that a good time to buy is now, because you only get your 50 years (or less).

Time of purchase wasn’t really the point. You could run the same comparison now for VGF vs. RIV (which has 6 additional years, so that’s 900 more points over the life of the contract).

My point was only to get to the true cost, you have to look at each individual point that is bought over the life of the contract. I 100% agree with you that best time to buy is early in the contract.