Attendance Down, Revenue Up

I think if attendance continues to go down you'll see changes whether it be less price increases or more additions to the parks.

Strategy and thought provoking-I like that. :thumbsup2

I agree, and am leaning towards that being good news (assuming they weren't really going for that), plus its still packed so not sure I would want it busier currently.

Revenue-I still am glad its up because slashing to expansion is less likely than if Rev down IMO.

Staying with #2.
 
The thing is .. "wait times" are just for those who don't get a Fast Pass.
If families come late, do their three fast Passes, grab lunch, watch the parade, catch a show or two (that don't have lines), grab a snack, use a 4th or 5th fast pass (available from their phone!), have dinner, shop and then watch the fireworks, the long wait times (for them) didn't mean a thing.

While wait times are up for those who like to do a LOT of rides in one day, I bet the general experience for the average guest is just fine if they use Fast Passes.

I just feel that because of fast Pass .. posted wait times are meaningless since there is no way to control when the people with Fast Passes will show up.
You could be at the end of 15 minute line .. but all of a sudden EVERY person who has a Fast Pass for the next hour shows up at the SAME time and heads into the Fast Pass lane. My guess is that your 15 minute wait will be a LOT longer.

And the reverse is probably true. The posted wait time is really huge because there is a lot of people in the Fast Pass line, but then no one shows up to get into the Fast Pass line for 15 minutes .. the standby line will zip faster.


I guess my feelings on that really have to do with the quality of 4th and subsequent FPs I can get from my phone. Are they for the rides I really intended to ride anyway? What are the odds of getting something I want at the 3 parks not called "Magic Kingdom"?
 
I guess my feelings on that really have to do with the quality of 4th and subsequent FPs I can get from my phone. Are they for the rides I really intended to ride anyway? What are the odds of getting something I want at the 3 parks not called "Magic Kingdom"?
I understand that .. I am just saying not EVERYONE is experiencing lines.

When I went to MK with my 2-year old son for the first time (his first time, not mine) .. most of the rides we did were Fast Passes (6 of them 3 via Kiosks) (of course we didn't hit the big rides) .. add in a nap in park, the parade, some snacks and dinner and leaving before the night shows .. we fell we had a great day (despite it being crowded (lots of congestion in the park), we felt we had a full and fun day).

I think that is what Disney wants with FP+ .. for the "average" guest to be able to experience a day without lines despite it being crowded and still be happy. To see "100 minute wait" and have a Fast Pass for it must feel great for the average guest.

I think WDW would love it if they could get everyone to "schedule" all their rides for the day and have FP only .. which would be awful for the customer.
 
I guess my feelings on that really have to do with the quality of 4th and subsequent FPs I can get from my phone. Are they for the rides I really intended to ride anyway? What are the odds of getting something I want at the 3 parks not called "Magic Kingdom"?

Very slim IMO, which is why Rev Up and Atten down is good news IMO-more likely to keep moving forward on expansion.

That said, I don't think any other park will get near MK levels of attractions. Mk is always going to be the "go to" for that scenario.

A casualty of having 4 parks instead of 2. Just think how much stuff there would be at EPCOT and MK if they had just continued to add at those. Sort of a DL and US scenario. Our group would not prefer that, I'm sure many would.
 

Interesting

http://www.**************.net/2016/...e-up-according-to-new-disney-earnings-report/
 
Very slim IMO, which is why Rev Up and Atten down is good news IMO-more likely to keep moving forward on expansion.
I think that you are focusing too much on the "Rev Up" portion of this without disentangling Parks and Resorts from DIS in general. Overall, Rev is up. Thank the movie studio. Rev is not up at Parks and Resorts in any way not attributable to price increases and revenue increases based on price increases are ultimately unsustainable. That is not "growth". Seen in another light, imagine that there is a chat Board for ESPN lovers. (Or Disney Infinity lovers). I doubt anyone there would be trumpeting the fact that "Rev is up. Viewership is down" and calling that good news that is likely to keep expansion moving forward.

**********************************
A few other random thoughts...

The "insiders" take on Disney wanting to shrink attendance, (posted twice in this thread), is perplexing. For years POP sat as an unfinished, vacant project looking all the while like a state penitentiary. Then they finished it and added thousands more rooms on line. Not done yet, they added AoA, adding thousands more. And while that was going on, more and more DVC rooms were being added to existing resorts. And all of a sudden Disney wakes up and concludes that there are too many people visiting the parks? Not buying it. Also, there is an easy solution to this "problem" assuming that one exists, and it benefits Disney in many ways. If Disney truly wanted to move turnstile attendance downward, all it would have to do is shift the Code Orange (or whatever they call it) numbers downward and close the park to off site guests at attendance numbers far lower than they do now. Staying on site? Good for you! You get in no matter what. Staying off site? Sorry. It's 11:00 a.m. and are park has 30,000 people in it. No Dumbo for you! BAM! Lower crowd levels and higher hotel occupancy rates as people not willing to risk getting shut out fill up Disney's rooms. But are we seeing anything of the sort? No. Instead, we hear unsubstantiated reports from insiders who say that raising prices was Disney's brilliant strategy to decrease attendance. All I can say to that is, if that is true, then this company is run by the dumbest group of execs on the planet and they deserve to fail and will fail.

What I see now is what I have seen over the past 2-3 years. People who are habitual guests continue to be so, but find ways to spend less money (or the same amount as before, resulting in a "downgraded" experience), and come home longing for the "good old days". People who are first time guests come home and say "never again!", or, "it was OK, but I am in no rush to go back." Those are painful words to hear if you are a Disney exec. And it cannot be denied that pricing is a major factor. Those of us who used to pay $49 for a room at the Contemporary and have seen the price climb to $150, to $225, to $300, to $425, and upward to $650 have slowly adjusted to the increases and accepted them, (or not). But for a first time visitor paying $650? Their point of reference is that it is really, really, really hard to find a hotel that charges $650 per night anywhere in the country (not named New York City or San Francisco), and when you do pay $650 for a room while on vacation, you get a level of quality and service that blows the Grand Floridian or Poly out of the water. I think that current pricing might be accepted begrudgingly by repeat guests, but I don't see it being tolerated by first time guests. Yes, Value resorts are still a good value. But the gap in price between the Values and the rest of the resorts has gotten to the point where it is really hard to justify paying Disney's prices unless you have already been won over by the Mouse. I am not seeing "new growth" in the customer base the way I used to.
 
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I think that you are focusing too much on the "Rev Up" portion of this without disentangling Parks and Resorts from DIS in general. Overall, Rev is up. Thank the movie studio. Rev is not up at Parks and Resorts in any way not attributable to price increases and revenue increases based on price increases are ultimately unsustainable. That is not "growth". Seen in another light, imagine that there is a chat Board for ESPN lovers. (Or Disney Infinity lovers). I doubt anyone there would be trumpeting the fact that "Rev is up. Viewership is down" and calling that good news that is likely to keep expansion moving forward.

**********************************
A few other random thoughts...

The "insiders" take on Disney wanting to shrink attendance, (posted twice in this thread), is perplexing. For years POP sat as an unfinished, vacant project looking all the while like a state penitentiary. Then they finished it and added thousands more rooms on line. Not done yet, they added AoA, adding thousands more. And while that was going on, more and more DVC rooms were being added to existing resorts. And all of a sudden Disney wakes up and concludes that there are too many people visiting the parks? Not buying it. Also, there is an easy solution to this "problem" assuming that one exists, and it benefits Disney in many ways. If Disney truly wanted to move turnstile attendance downward, all it would have to do is shift the Code Orange (or whatever they call it) numbers downward and close the park to off site guests at attendance numbers far lower than they do now. Staying on site? Good for you! You get in no matter what. Staying off site? Sorry. It's 11:00 a.m. and are park has 30,000 people in it. No Dumbo for you! BAM! Lower crowd levels and higher hotel occupancy rates as people not willing to risk getting shut out fill up Disney's rooms. But are we seeing anything of the sort? No. Instead, we hear unsubstantiated reports from insiders who say that raising prices was Disney's brilliant strategy to decrease attendance. All I can say to that is, if that is true, then this company is run by the dumbest group of execs on the planet and they deserve to fail and will fail.

What I see now is what I have seen over the past 2-3 years. People who are habitual guests continue to be so, but find ways to spend less money and come home longing for the "good old days". People who are first time guests come home and say "never again!", or, "it was OK, but I am in no rush to go back." Those are painful words to hear if you are a Disney exec. And it cannot be denied that pricing is a major factor. Those of us who used to pay $49 for a room at the Contemporary and have seen the price climb to $150, to $225, to $300, to $425, and upward to $650 have slowly adjusted to the increases and accepted them, (or not). But for a first time visitor paying $650? Their point of reference is that it is really, really, really hard to find a hotel that charges $650 per night anywhere in the country (not named New York City or San Francisco), and when you do pay $650 for a room while on vacation, you get a level of quality and service that blows the Grand Floridian or Poly out of the water. I think that current pricing might be accepted begrudgingly by repeat guests, but I don't see it being tolerated by first time guests. Yes, Value resorts are still a good value. But the gap in price between the Values and the rest of the resorts has gotten to the point where it is really hard to justify paying Disney's prices unless you have already been won over by the Mouse. I am not seeing "new growth" in the customer base the way I used to.

^ that makes more sense to me than anything else I've read. I can stop reading now.
 
There is no pixie dust on Wall Street. You have to accept the fact that Disney is part of corporate America now, where the only thing that matters is the bottom line. They don't care about people's memories or feelings. They don't believe in magic. They only care about how much money they can extract from people.

Shouldn't wall street be concerned over the fact that the only way the WDW made money this year was by raising prices. I would think they should be concerned that next quarter the decrees in attendance is more than "moderate" and the reduction in visitors can not be overcome by the price increases that may be keeping people away.
 

Not surprising - none of the big three have really added anything on the scale that New Fantasyland and Harry Potter were in 2012-14. And while those are both welcome and beautiful areas, they can't sustain attendance records on their own.

Pair that with Brazil's tanking economy, and I expect we're going to see a general slowdown for the next three to four years - which is when a good portion of the current Disney construction is finished, and Universal has made progress on their third gate.
 
2 thoughts about this.

1. Based on this, I'd say that Josh's assertion that the long lines and crowds are mor due to FP+ than increased attendance definitely has merit.

2. Disney has reached the tipping point with all their price increases.

Oh, and for anyone who thought they'd see the reversal of cutbacks in park operations at the end of the quarter? Stop snorting the pixie dust.
 
I think that you are focusing too much on the "Rev Up" portion of this without disentangling Parks and Resorts from DIS in general. Overall, Rev is up. Thank the movie studio. Rev is not up at Parks and Resorts in any way not attributable to price increases and revenue increases based on price increases are ultimately unsustainable. That is not "growth". Seen in another light, imagine that there is a chat Board for ESPN lovers. (Or Disney Infinity lovers). I doubt anyone there would be trumpeting the fact that "Rev is up. Viewership is down" and calling that good news that is likely to keep expansion moving forward.

**********************************
A few other random thoughts...

The "insiders" take on Disney wanting to shrink attendance, (posted twice in this thread), is perplexing. For years POP sat as an unfinished, vacant project looking all the while like a state penitentiary. Then they finished it and added thousands more rooms on line. Not done yet, they added AoA, adding thousands more. And while that was going on, more and more DVC rooms were being added to existing resorts. And all of a sudden Disney wakes up and concludes that there are too many people visiting the parks? Not buying it. Also, there is an easy solution to this "problem" assuming that one exists, and it benefits Disney in many ways. If Disney truly wanted to move turnstile attendance downward, all it would have to do is shift the Code Orange (or whatever they call it) numbers downward and close the park to off site guests at attendance numbers far lower than they do now. Staying on site? Good for you! You get in no matter what. Staying off site? Sorry. It's 11:00 a.m. and are park has 30,000 people in it. No Dumbo for you! BAM! Lower crowd levels and higher hotel occupancy rates as people not willing to risk getting shut out fill up Disney's rooms. But are we seeing anything of the sort? No. Instead, we hear unsubstantiated reports from insiders who say that raising prices was Disney's brilliant strategy to decrease attendance. All I can say to that is, if that is true, then this company is run by the dumbest group of execs on the planet and they deserve to fail and will fail.

What I see now is what I have seen over the past 2-3 years. People who are habitual guests continue to be so, but find ways to spend less money (or the same amount as before, resulting in a "downgraded" experience), and come home longing for the "good old days". People who are first time guests come home and say "never again!", or, "it was OK, but I am in no rush to go back." Those are painful words to hear if you are a Disney exec. And it cannot be denied that pricing is a major factor. Those of us who used to pay $49 for a room at the Contemporary and have seen the price climb to $150, to $225, to $300, to $425, and upward to $650 have slowly adjusted to the increases and accepted them, (or not). But for a first time visitor paying $650? Their point of reference is that it is really, really, really hard to find a hotel that charges $650 per night anywhere in the country (not named New York City or San Francisco), and when you do pay $650 for a room while on vacation, you get a level of quality and service that blows the Grand Floridian or Poly out of the water. I think that current pricing might be accepted begrudgingly by repeat guests, but I don't see it being tolerated by first time guests. Yes, Value resorts are still a good value. But the gap in price between the Values and the rest of the resorts has gotten to the point where it is really hard to justify paying Disney's prices unless you have already been won over by the Mouse. I am not seeing "new growth" in the customer base the way I used to.

Well maybe the expansion cuts will begin then. Will see.

I just think an entire "Revenue is down" overall would have been worse, but never know.
 
Well maybe the expansion cuts will begin then. Will see.
That may be tough to "see". Disney is very cagey when it comes to revealing its expansion plans. Whatever they cut the ribbon on will be presented to us as "their plan all along", when in reality, something much bigger, grander and/or more expensive may once have been on the drawing board. So while it is certainly true that there may be expansion cuts coming, we may never actually "see" them.
 
That may be tough to "see". Disney is very cagey when it comes to revealing its expansion plans. Whatever they cut the ribbon on will be presented to us as "their plan all along", when in reality, something much bigger, grander and/or more expensive may once have been on the drawing board. So while it is certainly true that there may be expansion cuts coming, we may never actually "see" them.

Sorry, edited

I just think an entire "Revenue is down" overall would have been worse, but never know.
 
I just think an entire "Revenue is down" overall would have been worse, but never know.
True that. "Revenue down across the board" would be the worst. But for a Board that focuses on the theme park experience, there is little to be joyful about from the last two quarters, coupled with the changes that we all see happening at the parks.
 
True that. "Revenue down across the board" would be the worst. But for a Board that focuses on the theme park experience, there is little to be joyful about from the last two quarters, coupled with the changes that we all see happening at the parks.

:thumbsup2

I think we got an OK, maybe best case scenario report.

Rev up (overall) so not a complete panic, attendance down so they need to do something.
 
I have a very good friend whose dad is an imagineer and was talking to her a couple days ago about all the price increases. She told me her dad says the main reason is to try to lessen crowds...that they do not like reaching capacity and having to close gates.
This seems odd. As others have stated, the days the parks actually close to capacity can be counted on one hand. Secondly, if Disney themselves are confirming what some of us have been speculating all along, that attendance is down, the only reason crowds are an issue is because of FP+ and lowered capacity; two things that Disney has thrust upon guests. If they truly wanted to lower crowds, they could operate more than one Dumbo spinner, more than two of the six Star Tours bays, or eliminate FP+ from attractions that never needed it to begin with. Pirates of the Caribbean and The Haunted Mansion are not seeing inflated wait times because Disney World is so gosh-darned popular, it is because of FP+.

They also did not do themselves any favors by neglecting Epcot and Hollywood Studios for so long. Of course the Magic Kingdom is packed; who wants to spend $100 for an outdoor mall and Toy Story Mania?
 














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