April 2023 Direct Sales Flat: https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-menu/financial/financial-news/5616-disney-vacation-club-direct-sales-flat-in-april-2023

[lilsonicfan]

The broker I recently bought from told me BRV had an average sales price of $94. This is much more in line with what Fidelity has reported rather than the Board Sponsor. Are the figures reliable? It’s not really in their interests to be reporting low figures.

I searched OCC for BRV "villas at wilderness lodge" deeds recorded from April 3 to May 12, 2023.
25 pts - $145
40 pts - $136
44 pts - $102
50 pts - $127, $138, $120
60 pts - $120
100 pts - $155, $110
130 pts - $94
150 pts - $109, $100, $100, $96, $110, $107, $94, $153*, $90, $106, $100, $110
175 pts - $103, $110
200 pts - $150*, $99, $95, $102, $115
210 pts - $90
220 pts - $95, $103
240 pts - $94
250 pts - $120, $106, $102, $111
275 pts - $75
300 pts - $100, $50*, $94

The asterisk ones were ones that caught my eye as outliers, being sold to corporations - the two high ones to the same LLC. Of course, there's also someone who paid $155 for 100 points.

 

[RachStu]

I searched OCC for BRV "villas at wilderness lodge" deeds recorded from April 3 to May 12, 2023.
25 pts - $145
40 pts - $136
44 pts - $102
50 pts - $127, $138, $120
60 pts - $120
100 pts - $155, $110
130 pts - $94
150 pts - $109, $100, $100, $96, $110, $107, $94, $153*, $90, $106, $100, $110
175 pts - $103, $110
200 pts - $150*, $99, $95, $102, $115
210 pts - $90
220 pts - $95, $103
240 pts - $94
250 pts - $120, $106, $102, $111
275 pts - $75
300 pts - $100, $50*, $94

The asterisk ones were ones that caught my eye as outliers, being sold to corporations - the two high ones to the same LLC. Of course, there's also someone who paid $155 for 100 points.

Thank you so much! That’s really great to see and makes me feel pretty good about my $90 200 point contract with full Dec 2022 points. Can anyone search the OCC or do you need some sort of account?

 

[Sandisw]

Thank you so much! That’s really great to see and makes me feel pretty good about my $90 200 point contract with full Dec 2022 points. Can anyone search the OCC or do you need some sort of account?

Anyone can search the database....

 

[lilsonicfan]

@RachStu you don't need an account to search, but you do end up looking at every deed and so it's a bit time consuming. Also some deeds don't have the purchase price on it, so you have to use the deed doc tax to find the total purchase price. And of course you don't know what deeds were fully loaded vs stripped.
https://or.occompt.com/recorder/eagleweb/docSearch.jsp - if you go to "Advanced" tab you can put in the legal remarks "disney" or some other key word, e.g. for BRV I searched "wilderness -copper" so that it wouldn't pull up the CCV sales.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

I searched OCC for BRV "villas at wilderness lodge" deeds recorded from April 3 to May 12, 2023.
25 pts - $145
40 pts - $136
44 pts - $102
50 pts - $127, $138, $120
60 pts - $120
100 pts - $155, $110
130 pts - $94
150 pts - $109, $100, $100, $96, $110, $107, $94, $153*, $90, $106, $100, $110
175 pts - $103, $110
200 pts - $150*, $99, $95, $102, $115
210 pts - $90
220 pts - $95, $103
240 pts - $94
250 pts - $120, $106, $102, $111
275 pts - $75
300 pts - $100, $50*, $94

The asterisk ones were ones that caught my eye as outliers, being sold to corporations - the two high ones to the same LLC. Of course, there's also someone who paid $155 for 100 points.

Thank you. Far fewer than half of these sales went over $110, so I’m very skeptical of a claim that the average DVC sale price went *up* from $118 to $122 (and all other properties also went up by a few points each). I am willing to believe that the broker with a reputation for having much higher prices has an higher average price than shown above…but I think the disparity between their numbers and the numbers pulled from OCC shows they aren’t really representative of the market. Fidelity’s numbers (which do not show a general strengthening of the market beyond VGC) are much closer aligned with the actual sales data reported above.

My personal opinion, based on experience and observation here is that the market no longer seems to be rapidly sliding down, but it’s only trending up at one property.

 

[Sandisw]

Thank you. Far fewer than half of these sales went over $110, so I’m very skeptical of a claim that the average DVC sale price went *up* from $118 to $122 (and all other properties also went up by a few points each). I am willing to believe that the broker with a reputation for having much higher prices has an higher average price than shown above…but I think the disparity between their numbers and the numbers pulled from OCC shows they aren’t really representative of the market. Fidelity’s numbers (which do not show a general strengthening of the market beyond VGC) are much closer aligned with the actual sales data reported above.

My personal opinion, based on experience and observation here is that the market no longer seems to be rapidly sliding down, but it’s only trending up at one property.

The chart starts with April 2022 and ends at April 2023...so, the $122 is from April 2022 and the $118 is from May 2022. I think you are looking at it going the wrong way!!

For 2023, it was $106 in March 2023, with $107 in April 2023...which definitely puts it in line with some of the actual data that was shared.

 

[lilsonicfan]

I think it is hard to glean a ton of information from the board sponsor or from Fidelity's posts regarding average resale. You do get an idea of the trends - that is, that the board sponsor's average listings do seem to sell higher than Fidelity's, plus Fidelity breaks it out by size of contract which does more closely resemble the data you can see on OCC for deeds recorded in April 2023. But even so, there were 100 recorded items from Apr 3, 2023 to May 12, 2023 on OCC for BRV and of course many of them were not actually transferred deeds - many were probably name changes. I saw a couple of direct sales and at least one sale at foreclosure. I also saw one deed that was transferred back to DVD, it wasn't a foreclosure, MAYBE a ROFR?? Odd. Anyway my point is that all of these are potentially small sample sizes for data, and I'm no expert in statistics, but maybe a larger sample size would be useful.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

The chart starts with April 2022 and ends at April 2023...so, the $122 is from April 2022 and the $118 is from May 2022. I think you are looking at it going the wrong way!!

For 2023, it was $106 in March 2023, with $107 in April 2023...which definitely puts it in line with some of the actual data that was shared.

You are right, I was reading it backwards. A lot of those numbers in the right column still look pretty divorced from what we see here and also $10-30 below numbers I personally received counters from sellers at for AKL, PVB, and VGF in April (I have not attempted to buy resale anywhere else).

We already own about 75% of the points we ever want to own, so I’ll be content if the resale market starts going up again…Maybe it’s leveling out, but I don’t believe it’s going to go up much before interest rates start dropping.

 

[Sandisw]

You are right, I was reading it backwards. A lot of those numbers in the right column still look pretty divorced from what we see here and also $10-30 below numbers I personally received counters from sellers at for AKL, PVB, and VGF in April (I have not attempted to buy resale anywhere else).

We already own about 75% of the points we ever want to own, so I’ll be content if the resale market starts going up again…Maybe it’s leveling out, but I don’t believe it’s going to go up much before interest rates start dropping.

I don’t think this board is representative for all sales but such a small sample and many here are your deal hunters as well. We also don’t know how many contracts for each resort either and if sales are only a few, it can sway an average.

I do not think we are going to see rises in any meaningful way, but I do think we are seeing some leveling and that the big drops may be done.

For example, I can see BRV staying in that $95 to $110 range..for the foreseeable future.

 

[Nursemanit]

I don’t think this board is representative for all sales but such a small sample and many here are your deal hunters as well. We also don’t know how many contracts for each resort either and if sales are only a few, it can sway an average.

I do not think we are going to see rises in any meaningful way, but I do think we are seeing some leveling and that the big drops may be done.

For example, I can see BRV staying in that $95 to $110 range..for the foreseeable future.

I think we have to start discounting 2042 in the trends - at this point they will go down each year ( except for BC which must give their members a bar of gold each visit to justify the price)

 

[varns529]

I don’t think this board is representative for all sales but such a small sample and many here are your deal hunters as well. We also don’t know how many contracts for each resort either and if sales are only a few, it can sway an average.

I do not think we are going to see rises in any meaningful way, but I do think we are seeing some leveling and that the big drops may be done.

For example, I can see BRV staying in that $95 to $110 range..for the foreseeable future.

I agree with this. Was looking at Fidelity for example, people love the points breakdown, well they make the range 100-200 point contracts, thats a pretty big gap. A 100 point contract is usually going to cost quite a bit more than a 200 point contract.

At the same time, how many sales are Fidelity doing. Do they have a certain number of contracts they have to sell before they post the average? For example, for April it shows no data for Riviera. Did they not sell a single Riviera contract in April or not enough to get an average?

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

I think we have to start discounting 2042 in the trends - at this point they will go down each year ( except for BC which must give their members a bar of gold each visit to justify the price)

I just want BC to drop to BRV and BWV range so I can justify buying it for half the life of VGF.

I’m telling myself I should take the 15k I don’t spend on 2042 points now in a dedicated brokerage account and then I can use them to buy whatever comes out next in 2042 on Crescent Lake.

 

[Nursemanit]

I just want BC to drop to BRV and BWV range so I can justify buying it for half the life of VGF.

I’m telling myself I should take the 15k I don’t spend on 2042 points now in a dedicated brokerage account and then I can use them to buy whatever comes out next in 2042 on Crescent Lake.

I think you may need a Tesla-like investment for what next at Crescent lake - 300 -350 a point would be my guess - unless they just do a hard refurb and resell.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

Our board sponsors sales are on the upswing. They do sell a lot of contracts and for them, things are moving up, not down.

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-april-2023/

I know people might want to say they are higher priced than other places, and this may be true…deals may indeed be out there for lower prices…but, in the end, their sales are going up…and my guess is that we will see it at other places as well.

There are already reports that seem to imply fewer sellers are negotiating much lower than they were.

Market definitely seems to have bottomed out and is currently back in an upswing. The only question is whether that is just seasonal effects (dues season is over), or an actual trend. It’ll probably be a while before we know for sure.

 

[KalamityJane]

https://www.fidelityrealestate.com/blog/april-2023-average-dvc-resale-price-per-point/

It looks like Fidelity averaged a bit lower on a lot of properties in April vs March.

 

[bryaalre]

April Direct Sales

Looks like April direct sales were essentially flat. Big increase at AKV, but that was expected with the promo.

 

[AvidDisReader]

April Direct Sales

Looks like April direct sales were essentially flat. Big increase at AKV, but that was expected with the promo.

This is just not good news. With all the economic indicators pointing to a continuing flat to recession economy, I cannot see sales increasing. It does not help that Disney is constantly in the news with negative press--from their struggles on Streaming, layoffs, a stupid fight with the State of Florida, accusations of Wokeness. They need to turn this around so people want to go to WDW and buy into a piece on the Mouse. Well I am going to do my part, looking forward to a Disney Cruise in 12 days.

 

[Nursemanit]

The good news for direct buyers is that the AKL sale worked - as did the Poly sale 2 months ago - hopefully there will be a BLT and CCV sale in the summer.

 

[Cfabar1]

Wonder what this means for June incentives. I personally think raising the direct price over $200 may have proven to be meeting a resistance band with costs.

Interesting to see sales essentially flat given how many promotions or promotion-like opportunities were created. Maybe they were not aggressive enough to capture additional buyers.

Does Disney care is an open question to me. Aulani seems to have charted a new potential path for DVC - which is - who cares if we actually sell through this thing as long as we can fill the rooms in cash or ownership.

 

[Frugal Fairy Tales]

https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-men...vacation-club-direct-sales-flat-in-april-2023