April 2023 Direct Sales Flat: https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-menu/financial/financial-news/5616-disney-vacation-club-direct-sales-flat-in-april-2023

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

This is just not good news. With all the economic indicators pointing to a continuing flat to recession economy, I cannot see sales increasing. It does not help that Disney is constantly in the news with negative press--from their struggles on Streaming, layoffs, a stupid fight with the State of Florida, accusations of Wokeness. They need to turn this around so people want to go to WDW and buy into a piece on the Mouse. Well I am going to do my part, looking forward to a Disney Cruise in 12 days.

To the contrary, this is very good news for those of us hoping to get more flash sales like we saw at AKV (and even aggressive promotions like the one running at VGF).

There are plenty of Disney families who are still very motivated to buy, but prevailing interest rates have skyrocketed and the “savings” math doesn’t really pencil out at $200/pt, a risk free rate or 5% on treasuries, and financing rates above 10%.

It’s unfortunate for Disney that they are heavily invested in a state where the governor has decided to attack them, and I’ve heard some potential buyers worry about RDS’ threats to add taxes, prisons, etc. to the WDW area, but I think their primary problem is macroeconomic factor and pricing, given how well both AKV and VGF have done after price cuts.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Wonder what this means for June incentives. I personally think raising the direct price over $200 may have proven to be meeting a resistance band with costs.

Interesting to see sales essentially flat given how many promotions or promotion-like opportunities were created. Maybe they were not aggressive enough to capture additional buyers.

Does Disney care is an open question to me. Aulani seems to have charted a new potential path for DVC - which is - who cares if we actually sell through this thing as long as we can fill the rooms in cash or ownership.

On balance I think it will be good for incentives (especially at resorts where Disney is looking to unload points)—but it may also depend on how strong hotel booking looks going into the peak travel seasons. Right now it is very easy to book at all of the Disney resorts for the week from Christmas to NYE (I know because I just made a booking in case I can’t get in at the 7mo window).

If Disney can sell out their DVC owned rooms at more than $25/pt equivalent, there is less of an incentive to aggressively discount points—but I think we can assume they are having a harder time selling out hotels generally based on all the promotions and passes that have come back lately.

We have 325 points and are still looking for another 50-100 points to reach what I think is the perfect amount for our family. This sales report suggest to me that ROFR isn’t coming back to save resale prices anytime soon…if puts better incentives on small contracts, to get them within $50 if resale, I would buy 50-75 direct, but otherwise I’ll keep hunting for deals in the resale market.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-men...vacation-club-direct-sales-flat-in-april-2023

It's too bad no one can look up direct sales at the new Disneyland Tower in Anaheim. I'm sure DVD is doing gangbuster business over on the west coast right now.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

It's too bad no one can look up direct sales at the new Disneyland Tower in Anaheim. I'm sure DVD is doing gangbuster business over on the west coast right now.

There is a thread on this forum where one of our fellow DVC owners is trying to piece together the data from buyer’s deeds.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

There is a thread on this forum where one of our fellow DVC owners is trying to piece together the data from buyer’s deeds.

I'm aware of the thread. I applaud his attempt but I'm not hopeful it will result in an accurate report. I can't imagine that lot of the new VDH buyers are on disboards

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

I'm aware of the thread. I applaud his attempt but I'm not hopeful it will result in an accurate report. I can't imagine that lot of the new VDH buyers are on disboards

I read that only existing DVC members can buy VDH now, is that correct? If so, I would expect a large fraction of them to be on disboards…though I’m not sure how many are willing to share the particulars of their purchase.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

I read that only existing DVC members can buy VDH now, is that correct? If so, I would expect a large fraction of them to be on disboards…though I’m not sure how many are willing to share the particulars of their purchase.

You're right that only existing members can buy until May 28th. I suppose the initial report might be a little revealing. But once sales begin to the public, the data will become even more thin IMO. But the guy spearheading is very resourceful. I'm looking forward to what comes into fruition.

 

[Nabas]

WDW direct sales have cratered.




Historically, March and April are the strongest direct sales months (due to Spring Break crowds). Prior to COVID, these months averaged 189,000 and 203,000 WDW DVC points.

March and April 2023 numbers were 119,000 and 120,000.

This is bad, really bad.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

WDW direct sales have cratered.

View attachment 761295


Historically, March and April are the strongest direct sales months (due to Spring Break crowds). Prior to COVID, these months averaged 189,000 and 203,000 WDW DVC points.

March 2023 numbers were 119,000 and 120,000.

This is bad, really bad.

could it be because a lot of people are buying VDH right now?

 

[Nabas]

could it be because a lot of people are buying VDH right now?

DVC's bread-and-butter are those vacationing at the theme parks or staying at WDW hotels. I suspect the vast majority want to buy something at WDW.

Interest rates no doubt are having an effect.

Plus the housing market is going soft, and DVC tends to echo that.

 

[KTownRaider]

could it be because a lot of people are buying VDH right now?

I think the biggest clue would be some additional VDH inventory being declared sooner than later...

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

WDW direct sales have cratered.

View attachment 761295


Historically, March and April are the strongest direct sales months (due to Spring Break crowds). Prior to COVID, these months averaged 189,000 and 203,000 WDW DVC points.

March 2023 numbers were 119,000 and 120,000.

This is bad, really bad.

I am pretty bearish on pricing, but both of the two “active” resorts seem to suggest a bit of a recovery/upwards trend in terms of sales volumes in the past quarter. They were both trending down as the stock/housing market went down and interest rates went up, but now they have defied the (still rising interest rate trend) and ticked back up a bit (much like the housing market and tech stocks). I believe there should also be an AKV spike here that’s bigger than Poly’s?

Anyway, I don’t know if Disney can tolerate these usually low volumes or if we will get better deals direct soon () but it does appear that the past couple months look a lot better than Dec/Jan, at least from this chart…and the AKV flash sale shows there are people interested if the price is right.

 

[disney-inspired]

It's too bad no one can look up direct sales at the new Disneyland Tower in Anaheim. I'm sure DVD is doing gangbuster business over on the west coast right now.

off topic - but where did you get those cool logos for in your signature?

 

[HIRyeDVC]

I think the biggest clue would be some additional VDH inventory being declared sooner than later...

I agree. Though, I'm not sure if that'll happen in the near term. Seems like a lot of people are selling their first year of points back to Disney through the magical beginnings program.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

off topic - but where did you get those cool logos for in your signature?

TBH, I just googled for logos of my specific resorts.

 

[LittleBitGoofy]

The good news for direct buyers is that the AKL sale worked - as did the Poly sale 2 months ago - hopefully there will be a BLT and CCV sale in the summer.

I missed that Poly sale. Was it the same as the latest AKV flash sale? Guess we can write those two off for upcoming sales.

 

[ehh]

I'm aware of the thread. I applaud his attempt but I'm not hopeful it will result in an accurate report. I can't imagine that lot of the new VDH buyers are on disboards

It definitely won't be precise with the available participants on this board. That was never on the table, unfortunately.

But I can put a fairly high-confidence upper value on the sales figures and have very rough lower figure with current participation. The range right now is likely 100k - 355k, which is not precise at all, but it is probably accurate. With more participation I might be able to narrow that a bit, but admittedly not a ton.

I'm simultaneously exploring using data from the OC RecorderWorks site in the the same thread, and I think the combined efforts will be very fruitful. DISers can provide data about how big Units are, hopefully also points vs. Tax info to use for extrapolating points from OCRW, and OCRW giving actual (though limited) deeds data. The data is also delayed as deeds are recorded about 2 weeks after document dates. Either way I'll do what I can

 

[RichVIII]

Contract inventory has definitely dropped from the peak just a few months back. I think those fishing for high prices, dropped out. Those with reasonable prices sold and those in between is what is still around. There are still some way out of line prices. I think there was a lot of froth when people heard deals could be had and to me we have settled in to a healthy level. I am sure all the resellers are a happier the narrative or at least the perception would be there is a swing back up but I think the direct sales data shows us, more folks are on the sidelines at this point. The mouse gets traction when that buy in price drops below $200 or the magical beginnings helps make it more tolerable. VDG to me is a different beast and it (in my opinion) should not be compared to WDW resorts. I will be curious to see if the tax thing really did turn people off. The rise of the direct costs seems like it has reached a level (in this market) is enough to cause pause. For smaller contracts with no incentives, that is harder to swallow for current members - who also are seeing a bigger spread for resale.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

It definitely won't be precise with the available participants on this board. That was never on the table, unfortunately.

But I can put a fairly high-confidence upper value on the sales figures and have very rough lower figure with current participation. The range right now is likely 100k - 355k, which is not precise at all, but it is probably accurate. With more participation I might be able to narrow that a bit, but admittedly not a ton.

I'm simultaneously exploring using data from the OC RecorderWorks site in the the same thread, and I think the combined efforts will be very fruitful. DISers can provide data about how big Units are, hopefully also points vs. Tax info to use for extrapolating points from OCRW, and OCRW giving actual (though limited) deeds data. The data is also delayed as deeds are recorded about 2 weeks after document dates. Either way I'll do what I can

God bless you! Keep up the great work!

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Contract inventory has definitely dropped from the peak just a few months back. I think those fishing for high prices, dropped out. Those with reasonable prices sold and those in between is what is still around. There are still some way out of line prices. I think there was a lot of froth when people heard deals could be had and to me we have settled in to a healthy level. I am sure all the resellers are a happier the narrative or at least the perception would be there is a swing back up but I think the direct sales data shows us, more folks are on the sidelines at this point. The mouse gets traction when that buy in price drops below $200 or the magical beginnings helps make it more tolerable. VDG to me is a different beast and it (in my opinion) should not be compared to WDW resorts. I will be curious to see if the tax thing really did turn people off. The rise of the direct costs seems like it has reached a level (in this market) is enough to cause pause. For smaller contracts with no incentives, that is harder to swallow for current members - who also are seeing a bigger spread for resale.

In case it wasn’t clear, I do NOT think *prices* are going up for direct or resale (outside of CA, anyway) and I think some of the attempts to create the narrative that prices are on the upswing are intentionally misleading. However, I do think direct *volumes* are going up as Disney stacks incentives at the 150/200 point mark and allows people to sell back their first year of points to reduce upfront cost.