April 2023 Direct Sales Flat: https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-menu/financial/financial-news/5616-disney-vacation-club-direct-sales-flat-in-april-2023

[we"reofftoneverland]

It definitely won't be precise with the available participants on this board. That was never on the table, unfortunately.

But I can put a fairly high-confidence upper value on the sales figures and have very rough lower figure with current participation. The range right now is likely 100k - 355k, which is not precise at all, but it is probably accurate. With more participation I might be able to narrow that a bit, but admittedly not a ton.

I'm simultaneously exploring using data from the OC RecorderWorks site in the the same thread, and I think the combined efforts will be very fruitful. DISers can provide data about how big Units are, hopefully also points vs. Tax info to use for extrapolating points from OCRW, and OCRW giving actual (though limited) deeds data. The data is also delayed as deeds are recorded about 2 weeks after document dates. Either way I'll do what I can

I think you can get a pretty darn close estimate with your methodology without the OCRW! Thanks

 

[Nursemanit]

I missed that Poly sale. Was it the same as the latest AKV flash sale? Guess we can write those two off for upcoming sales.

No point buyback and the sale was only for >200 points if I recall

 

[tjkraz]

WDW direct sales have cratered.

Now do prices.

 

[shreddedshoe]

Anyone have a guess when we will find out about the next round of incentives? I would assume just after the 29th if they continue at all? What are the odds it’s better than the current offering? Anyone else waiting until closer to the 29th?

 

[pinkxray]

Come on flash sale at Copper Creek!
I do think the prices being over $200 a point is just too much. I’m waiting to add on at Poly2, but would consider CC instead if they do a sale that brings it under $200 a point. $199, sure. $200.01,nope. Just a mental thing, but that’s just too much for me.

 

[grease1739]

Anyone have a guess when we will find out about the next round of incentives? I would assume just after the 29th if they continue at all? What are the odds it’s better than the current offering? Anyone else waiting until closer to the 29th?

Anyone have a guess when we will find out about the next round of incentives? I would assume just after the 29th if they continue at all? What are the odds it’s better than the current offering? Anyone else waiting until closer to the 29th?

I definitely am. My DVC sales rep said if I buy by the 29th and did a 30, 60 day payment plan that their manager gave permission to honor any new promotions/incentives that are offered within that 30-60 day window if they are better than the current one.

 

[Nabas]

In case it wasn’t clear, I do NOT think *prices* are going up for direct or resale (outside of CA, anyway) and I think some of the attempts to create the narrative that prices are on the upswing are intentionally misleading. However, I do think direct *volumes* are going up as Disney stacks incentives at the 150/200 point mark and allows people to sell back their first year of points to reduce upfront cost.

Because of Spring Break, March and April often are peak season for DVC purchases. After a long, cold winter, vacationers arrive at WDW looking for some fun in the sun, and the idea of repeating that next year is appealing. With DVC kiosks all over, even if they don’t buy direct, it puts a bug in their ears to start looking at resale once they return home.

That pull is not so strong in the summer and fall. By next winter, we might see another decline in resale prices.

 

[LittleBitGoofy]

I definitely am. My DVC sales rep said if I buy by the 29th and did a 30, 60 day payment plan that their manager gave permission to honor any new promotions/incentives that are offered within that 30-60 day window if they are better than the current one.

That's what I was told too. I'm doing the 30/60/90 payment splits and our Guide said they could rewrite in June if the deal improves since we wouldn't be closed yet. Watching and waiting!

 

[shreddedshoe]

I definitely am. My DVC sales rep said if I buy by the 29th and did a 30, 60 day payment plan that their manager gave permission to honor any new promotions/incentives that are offered within that 30-60 day window if they are better than the current one.

Ok, yes, this was my thinking as well. I’ll make sure I mention this.

 

[shreddedshoe]

That's what I was told too. I'm doing the 30/60/90 payment splits and our Guide said they could rewrite in June if the deal improves since we wouldn't be closed yet. Watching and waiting!

Ok, sounds good.

 

[PBandJFamwich]

Anyone have a guess when we will find out about the next round of incentives? I would assume just after the 29th if they continue at all? What are the odds it’s better than the current offering? Anyone else waiting until closer to the 29th?

We are waiting until closer to the 29th then will cancel within the 10 days if the incentives are better.

 

[kevtlas]

I thought I was done, but started looking again when I noticed the average dipping. If the upswing holds, I guess I'll save some money lol

 

[CherryDB]

I definitely am. My DVC sales rep said if I buy by the 29th and did a 30, 60 day payment plan that their manager gave permission to honor any new promotions/incentives that are offered within that 30-60 day window if they are better than the current one.

Nice. I didnt know the window was that long if you do split payments. I was always under the impression that it was just the 10 day rescission period. I was planning to buy GF direct next week within the 10 day window of hopefully when they release a new set of incentives.

 

[grease1739]

Nice. I didnt know the window was that long if you do split payments. I was always under the impression that it was just the 10 day rescission period. I was planning to buy GF direct next week within the 10 day window of hopefully when they release a new set of incentives.

It isn’t the norm but I think they are so hard up for sales that the agent proactively offered it after our 2nd call. I wouldn’t tell them you got the info from a message board but I’d just say that my friend’s agent offered it and I’m wonder if I can get the same.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

View attachment 761344


Come on flash sale at Copper Creek!
I do think the prices being over $200 a point is just too much. I’m waiting to add on at Poly2, but would consider CC instead if they do a sale that brings it under $200 a point. $199, sure. $200.01,nope. Just a mental thing, but that’s just too much for me.

The difference in price for a 150 point contract would be $151.50 at those prices. I think $200.01 is good to buy

 

[CherryDB]

It isn’t the norm but I think they are so hard up for sales that the agent proactively offered it after our 2nd call. I wouldn’t tell them you got the info from a message board but I’d just say that my friend’s agent offered it and I’m wonder if I can get the same.

Gotcha. Hopefully better incentives are coming and the magical beginnings promo stay around to stack with them.

 

[grease1739]

Gotcha. Hopefully better incentives are coming and the magical beginnings promo stay around to stack with them.

Honestly this is what I am so torn about. Holding out for another 6 months or year for a better discount vs signing up now thinking this or the upcoming promotion is the best it will get.

 

[Nabas]

Honestly this is what I am so torn about. Holding out for another 6 months or year for a better discount vs signing up now thinking this or the upcoming promotion is the best it will get.

Between the hotel discounts, end of Park Passes for specific day tickets, the return of DDP and, most recently, specially discounted theme park tickets, signs are pointing to softer WDW attendance. Heck, afternoon boarding groups for Tron and Cosmic Rewind have been available for hours.

Everyone’s favorite bellwether, Home Depot, reported sales at same stores are softening.

I just paid $118 to fly round trip to Orlando in August.

Signs are pointing to a recession at a time when Disney is going to be selling at an unprecedented number of DVC resorts.

You have softening travel, a weakening economy, and Disney trying to sell at one time more DVC resorts than ever before.

If you can wait a year or two, you might see some tremendous discounts.

 

[CherryDB]

Honestly this is what I am so torn about. Holding out for another 6 months or year for a better discount vs signing up now thinking this or the upcoming promotion is the best it will get.

Yeah we were kind of on the same boat for a while but I think we are going to take the plunge and buy our first direct contract. Just looking at last year, it seemed like they had better incentives (at least for Riviera) during the summer. If they can come up with those types of incentives again and you can still get the magical beginnings promo then we would be happy with the price.

I never really thought we would ever go direct. We have 2 resale contract and waiting to close on the 3rd but the FOMO on the ability to stay at the new resorts really got us.

 

[CherryDB]

Between the hotel discounts, end of Park Passes for specific day tickets, the return of DDP and, most recently, specially discounted theme park tickets, signs are pointing to softer WDW attendance. Heck, afternoon boarding groups for Tron and Cosmic Rewind have been available for hours.

Everyone’s favorite bellwether, Home Depot, reported sales at same stores are softening.

I just paid $118 to fly round trip to Orlando in August.

Signs are pointing to a recession at a time when Disney is going to be selling at an unprecedented number of DVC resorts.

You have softening travel, a weakening economy, and Disney trying to sell at one time more DVC resorts than ever before.

If you can wait a year or two, you might see some tremendous discounts.

Do you know if they've ever decreased the price of the points once its released or they just come up with more enticing incentives? Just wondering if there's been precedence for that.