All FP machines to be removed from Animal Kingdom by next week and....

[doconeill]

And don't forget the Disney marketing machine is just revving its engine. That campaign is just in its infancy.

I think they forgot they needed the turbo engine, and started with a moped...now the engine broke, and they are trying to fit the turbo engine ON the moped...or, they just cleaned and chromed another moped engine...

Only half Considering I got the "Yes, we're paying extra to send you not one but two sets of magicbands, but not yet, so here is a thumb drive we paid to ship to you as well" on Friday.

 

[Mkrop]

California.

Some do say that people from California are out of this world...ok you got me.

I guess we did something wrong bc the two times we went to DL the line were long except in the morning. We rode once first thing, and then the next trip we got sucked it waiting in a long line outside. These were summer trips if that matters.

 

[mom2rtk]

I think they forgot they needed the turbo engine, and started with a moped...now the engine broke, and they are trying to fit the turbo engine ON the moped...or, they just cleaned and chromed another moped engine...

Only half Considering I got the "Yes, we're paying extra to send you not one but two sets of magicbands, but not yet, so here is a thumb drive we paid to ship to you as well" on Friday.

Maybe they have all their marketing folks working on operational issues for now. Which I can make fun of as a marketing person myself.

Some do say that people from California are out of this world...ok you got me.

I guess we did something wrong bc the two times we went to DL the line were long except in the morning. We rode once first thing, and then the next trip we got sucked it waiting in a long line outside. These were summer trips if that matters.

Can I assume you were there before Carsland opened? I think that shook up the natural order of things pretty well.

 

[Laketravis]

Average daily attendance at HS is slightly more than 27,000.

Optimal capacity of TSM is 900 per hour.

Over a 12 hour operating schedule, a maximum of 10,800 guests can ride TSM.

I'm sure there are some math scholars on here who could calculate what the probability is that a family of three will be able to make/change a FP+ for TSM at all or for a particular hour of a chosen day, starting at 60 days out and leading up to an hour before.

But the point is that more than half the guests in the park have no chance to ride TSM the day they are there. It's mathematically impossible.

 

[Mkrop]

Maybe they have all their marketing folks working on operational issues for now. Which I can make fun of as a marketing person myself.



Can I assume you were there before Carsland opened? I think that shook up the natural order of things pretty well.

yes we were! Wow imagine adding more ride capacity alleviates lines and waits at popular rides...what a concept

 

[practicallyperfect77]

Average daily attendance at HS is slightly more than 27,000.

Optimal capacity of TSM is 900 per hour.

Over a 12 hour operating schedule, a maximum of 10,800 guests can ride TSM.

I'm sure there are some math scholars on here who could calculate what the probability is that a family of three will be able to make/change a FP+ for TSM at all or for a particular hour of a chosen day, starting at 60 days out and leading up to an hour before.

But the point is that more than half the guests in the park have no chance to ride TSM the day they are there. It's mathematically impossible.

Sad. And some folks don't know how crazy it is either. On my.last trip, I was at RnRC around 3:30pm and heard a mom tell her kids "we'll go see if TSM has any FPs left". I didn't have the heart to tell her it was a 120 min wait and FPs had been gone since prolly 9:15. Why won't they just build another ride and alleviate this problem?

 

[mom2rtk]

yes we were! Wow imagine adding more ride capacity alleviates lines and waits at popular rides...what a concept

Yeah. Go figure. The people at Disney should talk to...... the people at Disney.

 

[wisblue]

The math can tell us how many people it would take to exhaust the supply of FPs. But math does not tell us how many guests will be organized enough to make their reservations 60 days out, 30 days out, or at all. It also doesn't tell us how many guests would not select TSMM as their tier 1 FP at DHS, either because they prefer RNRC or one of the other choices, they have done TSMM before and aren't interested in doing it again, or just because they don't know any better about what FPs are more useful.

The math also doesn't tell us whether offsite guests will be given the opportunity to book FP+ as early as onsite guests. My guess is that if Disney detects that FPs for popular attractions are going to sell out early, they will give onsite guests the first crack at them.

The math also doesn't tell us how the vaunted Disney marketing machine is going to try to push FP+ and how uninformed guests will respond to those efforts. Unless they give out the most valuable FPs to guests on the first day of their 60 day window without requiring any action on the guests' part, the uninformed are not likely to be snatching them up at the first possible moment. If they take the easy way out and go with the "fast picks", they probably won't be getting the most coveted FPs either.

There are a lot of Disney policy decisions and human behavior factors at play here in addition to the math. I do not think that sell outs of FP+ reservations are going to happen within hours after they become available except maybe for the very busiest days, and maybe not even then.

Either way, until shown otherwise, those 60 day sell outs are far enough away that I'm not going to worry about them until they become a reality. In the meantime, when I have a trip planned, I will do my best to make FP+ reservations as early as I can just to get a stake in the ground. I have to do the same thing to get flights at the best fares possible when we travel on popular dates.

 

[chanda7]

Maybe I've missed it, but have they released info on how many FPs people will be able to get on Wednesday? Will it still be a limit of 3?

 

[wisblue]

Average daily attendance at HS is slightly more than 27,000.

Optimal capacity of TSM is 900 per hour.

Over a 12 hour operating schedule, a maximum of 10,800 guests can ride TSM.

I'm sure there are some math scholars on here who could calculate what the probability is that a family of three will be able to make/change a FP+ for TSM at all or for a particular hour of a chosen day, starting at 60 days out and leading up to an hour before.

But the point is that more than half the guests in the park have no chance to ride TSM the day they are there. It's mathematically impossible.

And, of course, that is true regardless of what FP system is in place. Based on what many posters here have done in the past, including us, it is likely that a higher percentage of park guests will be riding TSMM at least once than did with the paper FP system. Whether or not that is Disney's reason for FP+, it does seem to be a likely result.

 

[doconeill]

Maybe I've missed it, but have they released info on how many FPs people will be able to get on Wednesday? Will it still be a limit of 3?

No reason to think otherwise. It's always been 3.

 

[jade1]

Average daily attendance at HS is slightly more than 27,000.

Optimal capacity of TSM is 900 per hour.

Over a 12 hour operating schedule, a maximum of 10,800 guests can ride TSM.

I'm sure there are some math scholars on here who could calculate what the probability is that a family of three will be able to make/change a FP+ for TSM at all or for a particular hour of a chosen day, starting at 60 days out and leading up to an hour before.

But the point is that more than half the guests in the park have no chance to ride TSM the day they are there. It's mathematically impossible.

Yea but if you built TSM II charged for FP+.....never mind.

 

[surferdave]

And, of course, that is true regardless of what FP system is in place.

I certainly like how Disneyland spent their billion to relieve pressure on TSMM better than how Disney World did it.

 

[rebbyparker]

Yea but if you built TSM II charged for FP+.....never mind.

I'll go with the first sentence. Adding rides would have been better than what they chose to do.

 

[Laketravis]

The math can tell us how many people it would take to exhaust the supply of FPs. But math does not tell us how many guests will be organized enough to make their reservations 60 days out, 30 days out, or at all. It also doesn't tell us how many guests would not select TSMM as their tier 1 FP at DHS, either because they prefer RNRC or one of the other choices, they have done TSMM before and aren't interested in doing it again, or just because they don't know any better about what FPs are more useful.

The math also doesn't tell us whether offsite guests will be given the opportunity to book FP+ as early as onsite guests. My guess is that if Disney detects that FPs for popular attractions are going to sell out early, they will give onsite guests the first crack at them.

The math also doesn't tell us how the vaunted Disney marketing machine is going to try to push FP+ and how uninformed guests will respond to those efforts. Unless they give out the most valuable FPs to guests on the first day of their 60 day window without requiring any action on the guests' part, the uninformed are not likely to be snatching them up at the first possible moment. If they take the easy way out and go with the "fast picks", they probably won't be getting the most coveted FPs either.

There are a lot of Disney policy decisions and human behavior factors at play here in addition to the math. I do not think that sell outs of FP+ reservations are going to happen within hours after they become available except maybe for the very busiest days, and maybe not even then.

Either way, until shown otherwise, those 60 day sell outs are far enough away that I'm not going to worry about them until they become a reality. In the meantime, when I have a trip planned, I will do my best to make FP+ reservations as early as I can just to get a stake in the ground. I have to do the same thing to get flights at the best fares possible when we travel on popular dates.

True, lots of variables to account for and I was never good enough at statistics to figure out what equations could possibly account for them all.

Instead, I figured a reservation for dinner at BOG might be subject to the same types of mind-boggling variables and conditions.

So I just went online and tried to reserve a table 60 days out. And there were none.

Then I tried 90 days out. And there were none.

120 days out? Nada. I didn't strike gold until I went out 150 days.

Some may argue that isn't the same as trying to make a FP+ reservation for TSM, but I think many of the same variables are at play.

 

[Tozer]

But the point is that more than half the guests in the park have no chance to ride TSM the day they are there. It's mathematically impossible.

Got to love the dramatic nature of this statement when most of the guests stand in line to ride TSMM. I guess no one told them it was mathematically impossible for them to ride without an FP+

 

[minnie-apple-mouse]

Follow-up reports have indicated that the legacy FP machines at AK will be turned off starting Wednesday. Plan accordingly.

Thanks, but turned off or removed as the OP says?

My planning will be much different if they are removing them-because there would be no chance of them being turned back on in upcoming weeks.

I think they will all be removed eventually, but until then we would plan different stays-like on or off site etc.

 

[Laketravis]

Got to love the dramatic nature of this statement when most of the guests stand in line to ride TSMM. I guess no one told them it was mathematically impossible for them to ride without an FP+

Hint: The ones standing in line are part of the less-than-half of the park population that will ride it that day. Ride capacity doesn't distinguish between who has an FP and who doesn't.

 

[bcrook]

The math can tell us how many people it would take to exhaust the supply of FPs. But math does not tell us how many guests will be organized enough to make their reservations 60 days out, 30 days out, or at all. It also doesn't tell us how many guests would not select TSMM as their tier 1 FP at DHS, either because they prefer RNRC or one of the other choices, they have done TSMM before and aren't interested in doing it again, or just because they don't know any better about what FPs are more useful.

The math also doesn't tell us whether offsite guests will be given the opportunity to book FP+ as early as onsite guests. My guess is that if Disney detects that FPs for popular attractions are going to sell out early, they will give onsite guests the first crack at them.

The math also doesn't tell us how the vaunted Disney marketing machine is going to try to push FP+ and how uninformed guests will respond to those efforts. Unless they give out the most valuable FPs to guests on the first day of their 60 day window without requiring any action on the guests' part, the uninformed are not likely to be snatching them up at the first possible moment. If they take the easy way out and go with the "fast picks", they probably won't be getting the most coveted FPs either.

There are a lot of Disney policy decisions and human behavior factors at play here in addition to the math. I do not think that sell outs of FP+ reservations are going to happen within hours after they become available except maybe for the very busiest days, and maybe not even then.

Either way, until shown otherwise, those 60 day sell outs are far enough away that I'm not going to worry about them until they become a reality. In the meantime, when I have a trip planned, I will do my best to make FP+ reservations as early as I can just to get a stake in the ground. I have to do the same thing to get flights at the best fares possible when we travel on popular dates.

The math has been the same since last December. This argument is the counter to the math and has been the same since last December. We may not see the answer until spring break.

So now we wait...again.

The DAK advancement will be revealing, but it won't be a true test yet.

 

[Laketravis]

The math can tell us how many people it would take to exhaust the supply of FPs. But math does not tell us how many guests will be organized enough to make their reservations 60 days out, 30 days out, or at all. It also doesn't tell us how many guests would not select TSMM as their tier 1 FP at DHS, either because they prefer RNRC or one of the other choices, they have done TSMM before and aren't interested in doing it again, or just because they don't know any better about what FPs are more useful.

The math also doesn't tell us whether offsite guests will be given the opportunity to book FP+ as early as onsite guests. My guess is that if Disney detects that FPs for popular attractions are going to sell out early, they will give onsite guests the first crack at them.

The math also doesn't tell us how the vaunted Disney marketing machine is going to try to push FP+ and how uninformed guests will respond to those efforts. Unless they give out the most valuable FPs to guests on the first day of their 60 day window without requiring any action on the guests' part, the uninformed are not likely to be snatching them up at the first possible moment. If they take the easy way out and go with the "fast picks", they probably won't be getting the most coveted FPs either.

There are a lot of Disney policy decisions and human behavior factors at play here in addition to the math. I do not think that sell outs of FP+ reservations are going to happen within hours after they become available except maybe for the very busiest days, and maybe not even then.

Either way, until shown otherwise, those 60 day sell outs are far enough away that I'm not going to worry about them until they become a reality. In the meantime, when I have a trip planned, I will do my best to make FP+ reservations as early as I can just to get a stake in the ground. I have to do the same thing to get flights at the best fares possible when we travel on popular dates.

True, lots of variables to account for and I was never good enough at statistics to figure out what equations could possibly account for them all.

Instead, I figured a reservation for dinner at BOG might be subject to the same types of mind-boggling variables and conditions.

So I just went online and tried to reserve a table 60 days out. And there were none.

Then I tried 90 days out. And there were none.

120 days out? Nada. I didn't strike gold until I went out 150 days.

Some may argue that isn't the same as trying to make a FP+ reservation for TSM, but I think many of the same variables are at play