All FP machines to be removed from Animal Kingdom by next week and....

[clsteve]

For starters, since we like to talk about math, what is the dinner capacity for BOG on a given night? How does that compare to the FP capacity at TSMM on a given day?

Sorry, I was just confused because I thought you were making Laketravis' point - Disney Marketing creating enough buzz about an average restaurant that locals will drive to WDW, park at the TTC, ride the monorail, stand in line for entry, walk all the way to NFL, wait another 20 minutes to be seated, eat, and then repeat the process to get out of there.

And then drive past about 100 restaurants with better food......

 

[Silock]

For starters, since we like to talk about math, what is the dinner capacity for BOG on a given night? How does that compare to the FP capacity at TSMM on a given day?

The difference is that while capacity for BOG may be low, the number of people trying for it are also lower.

However, even if the numbers of people wanting to get a reservation isn't any lower, that's largely irrelevant as long as the capacity remains small relative to demand.

If you have a capacity of 100 and 200 people that want in, you have a problem. That problem doesn't change if you have a capacity of 10,000 and 15,000 want in. The demand might be less, but it still greatly outstrips capacity. Even if you had 14,000 people wanting in instead of 15,000, you're still going to run out.

 

[BenbowInn]

For the record, I can't see Disney implementing a system that completely shuts out offsite guests (from anything but stand by). Universal's system doesn't even completely shut out offsite guests, and they have far fewer onsite guests than Disney. I would be interested to see the percentage of onsite vs offsite at Disney and Universal if anyone knows that though. I also have a hard time seeing how a pay FP+ system or a resort benefit one would work given the limited number of FPs that can actually be given.

That said, I completely disagree with your argument that the parks and resorts are completely separate. The biggest flaw I see there is that Disney owns both and therefore wants to entice people to book their resorts. Resort guests paid for better park access for a long time, just not directly with FP. EMH is (well arguably used to be) a huge perk for onsite guests that excluded offsite guests completely. I would not be surprised to see a system that gives onsite guests more perks, even a system that differentiates based on hotel levels IF the capacity numbers weren't so restrictive. Why wouldn't Disney give the family who spent $4000 to stay onsite more perks than the family who spent $0 to stay onsite?

EMH is completely different than giving onsite guests first call on rides all the time. The two scenarios are not at all the same. Having a few extra "low crowd" park hours at one park per day for onsite guests is MUCH different than expecting offsite guests to pay the same for admission and not get to ride as much during normal business hours. I don't get how anyone can make a comparison to the two.

As far as the resorts...anyone willing to pay outrageous prices for mediocre Disney resorts gets the benefit that's often touted on here of "being in the Disney bubble". There's the benefit that people get for their money. Park admission and resorts are separate, even if they are all owned by Disney. If Disney wants to entice people to stay onsite them perhaps they should make their parks all inclusive and not allow offsite guests to visit. Otherwise we all pay the same to enter the parks and all deserve fair shots at the rides and attractions, since that is what a theme park is all about.

 

[wisblue]

The difference is that while capacity for BOG may be low, the number of people trying for it are also lower.

However, even if the numbers of people wanting to get a reservation isn't any lower, that's largely irrelevant as long as the capacity remains small relative to demand.

If you have a capacity of 100 and 200 people that want in, you have a problem. That problem doesn't change if you have a capacity of 10,000 and 15,000 want in. The demand might be less, but it still greatly outstrips capacity. Even if you had 14,000 people wanting in instead of 15,000, you're still going to run out.

I understand percentages, but I still think it's apples and oranges. If BOG is selling out 180 days in advance, then the total number of people who would like to eat dinner there if they could is probably a lot more than 2 or 3 times the capacity.

If you want dinner at BOG, the ONLY way to guarantee that is to make a reservation before it fills up. With TSMM or any ride, there is always the opportunity to ride standby, even if that line is long. For a lot of people, standing in line for an hour is a lot easier than planning anything in advance.

Look, I get that I'm never going to convince you or anyone else who is sure that the only way to get a popular FP is going to be parking at the computer pushing the refresh button until the 60 day window opens up. I just don't see it any more than I see 50% of the people who are going to visit the park suddenly showing up an hour before opening.

We'll just have to see how it plays out.

 

[over50visits]

Someone posted on this thread the information from the CM hub. It said they would be covered during the test.

Originally Posted by joelkfla View Post
Some info was posted for cm's yesterday:
The test begins 12/18. No end date was in the communication.
Any Guest visiting DAK during the test will have the option to participate (the other option is Standby).
FP machines will be covered up (not removed.)
Guests can select up to 3 FP+ experiences; no mention of tiers.
Off-site Guests may select & change their experiences only at FP+ kiosks (which will have expanded staffing.) MDE can be used to view times, but not to make changes (by off-site Guests; on-site will continue as now.)
Guests will be given a Times Guide sized paper slip listing the available experiences, with space to write in the appt. times. Or, Disney suggests they take a phone photo of the kiosk screen.
Guests must select all 3 experiences at one time. They can make changes later as available.
There are no plans to charge for FP+ in the future.

Hmmmmm…..isn't that last point interesting. Not "we will not charge for FP+" instead just there are "no plans"

 

[Silock]

I understand percentages, but I still think it's apples and oranges.

If you want dinner at BOG, the ONLY way to guarantee that is to make a reservation before it fills up. With TSMM or any ride, there is always the opportunity to ride standby, even if that line is long. For a lot of people, standing in line for an hour is a lot easier than planning anything in advance.

Look, I get that I'm never going to convince you or anyone else who is sure that the only way to get a popular FP is going to be parking at the computer pushing the refresh button until the 60 day window opens up. I just don't see it any more than I see 50% of the people who are going to visit the park suddenly showing up an hour before opening.


We'll just have to see how it plays out.

It doesn't have to be right at the 60 day window. For it to be less flexible than FP-, it can be any time between 1 day and 60 days out. Any time you have to plan ahead of time is an inferior system. You'd only want to make sure you book 60 days out so you can get the time you want, if it's available.

EDIT: Also, if you've ever logged in to reserve a boarding pass for Southwest Airlines exactly 24 hours before your flight, but no matter how much you hit the "refresh button," you end up with a B group boarding spot . . . you can easily imagine how it's going to be with many thousands more people trying to do the same thing.

 

[wordwitt]

I understand percentages, but I still think it's apples and oranges.

If you want dinner at BOG, the ONLY way to guarantee that is to make a reservation before it fills up. With TSMM or any ride, there is always the opportunity to ride standby, even if that line is long. For a lot of people, standing in line for an hour is a lot easier than planning anything in advance.

Look, I get that I'm never going to convince you or anyone else who is sure that the only way to get a popular FP is going to be parking at the computer pushing the refresh button until the 60 day window opens up. I just don't see it any more than I see 50% of the people who are going to visit the park suddenly showing up an hour before opening.

We'll just have to see how it plays out.

Right. And for those who think the sky is falling, don't let it hit you in the **** on the way out.

 

[Silock]

Right. And for those who think the sky is falling, don't let it hit you in the **** on the way out.

Pssh... typical Disney apologist. Don't you know that the sky falls from ABOVE?

 

[Shaden]

Just for the record, I am not saying that I hope Disney marketing fails.

There are two distinct issues here. One is FP available same day and the other is only being able to book a popular FP within the first hour that your 60 day window opening up.

Disney marketing will have achieved its purpose if guests book their FP anytime in advance; it doesn't have to be 60 days.

I have no doubt that the most educated guests will have the best shot at FPs and the best shot at standby rides. It has always been that way.

Of course, as I pointed out earlier, the difference now will be that travel agents will be able to go on at 60 days out, and book FPs for their clients ... and they will. Even if the clients don't use the FPs, though, if someone actually GIVES them a schedule and says "go" chances are a lot more ARE going to use them.

We wont just be competing with the average first time Disney newb. We will be in the pool with the Travel agent with 300 Clients going for a Spring break vacation, going online at 60 days and starting to scoop up all the FP+s for their clients.

 

[Mad Hattered]

Pssh... typical Disney apologist. Don't you know that the sky falls from ABOVE?

I prefer PFFFFT.

 

[Shaden]

It doesn't have to be right at the 60 day window. For it to be less flexible than FP-, it can be any time between 1 day and 60 days out. Any time you have to plan ahead of time is an inferior system. You'd only want to make sure you book 60 days out so you can get the time you want, if it's available.

EDIT: Also, if you've ever logged in to reserve a boarding pass for Southwest Airlines exactly 24 hours before your flight, but no matter how much you hit the "refresh button," you end up with a B group boarding spot . . . you can easily imagine how it's going to be with many thousands more people trying to do the same thing.

lol exactly.

This doesn't have to all work out in the worst case scenario some people (sometimes myself included) paint. Even if it lands somewhere in the middle, its still a worse system than FP-. Its less flexible, it will require some prebooking, will limit your ability (or remove it) to adjust due to weather, or sickness, or mood, etc. It will make a MORE scheduled vacation, reducing spontaneity.

Ands its all well in good to say "you can ride standby" ... why would I ? I refuse to wait more than 20 - 30 mins in a line, I am not paying thousands of dollars to do so, and if I have to under FP+, then its a worse system than FP- ... but since prices have gone up, I am going to pay more to do less ???

Awesome.

 

[DebbieB]

It doesn't have to be right at the 60 day window. For it to be less flexible than FP-, it can be any time between 1 day and 60 days out. Any time you have to plan ahead of time is an inferior system. You'd only want to make sure you book 60 days out so you can get the time you want, if it's available. EDIT: Also, if you've ever logged in to reserve a boarding pass for Southwest Airlines exactly 24 hours before your flight, but no matter how much you hit the "refresh button," you end up with a B group boarding spot . . . you can easily imagine how it's going to be with many thousands more people trying to do the same thing.

Southwest isn't a good example because people pay to be checked in at 36 hours. If you don't pay for early bird check-in, you can't complain about getting a B at 24 hours.

 

[rebbyparker]

Of course, as I pointed out earlier, the difference now will be that travel agents will be able to go on at 60 days out, and book FPs for their clients ... and they will. Even if the clients don't use the FPs, though, if someone actually GIVES them a schedule and says "go" chances are a lot more ARE going to use them.

We wont just be competing with the average first time Disney newb. We will be in the pool with the Travel agent with 300 Clients going for a Spring break vacation, going online at 60 days and starting to scoop up all the FP+s for their clients.

Hmm...Never considered a TA for the parks but did just book through DU for our cruise. Maybe this is something to be considered.

 

[clsteve]

I am on the side that believes Disney is going to market the hell out of this thing to where you won't be able to help but be made aware of it. I'm pretty sure they will make sure you are fully aware that you have the opportunity to "wait less time in line" if you do use it. Oh, and it's suddenly a "perk".

Just look at that annoying Stacy that runs 24/7 on the TV. She is screaming to you what rides you are going to want to use FP+ on. I imagine the marketing for this will come across something like this:

Imagine being surrounded on all sides by a typical TV display wall at Best Buy or the likes. Now imagine that Stacy commercial playing really really loud. But don't sync the TVs up so that it will be even more annoying.

Yeah...it's gonna be something like that.

I think you just dropped Best Buy's stock 5 points at opening tomorrow

 

[Silock]

Southwest isn't a good example because people pay to be checked in at 36 hours. If you don't pay for early bird check-in, you can't complain about getting a B at 24 hours.

1) This was happening long before you could pay for auto-check-in.

2) Not everyone pays for auto-check-in.

 

[Mad Hattered]

Of course, as I pointed out earlier, the difference now will be that travel agents will be able to go on at 60 days out, and book FPs for their clients ... and they will. Even if the clients don't use the FPs, though, if someone actually GIVES them a schedule and says "go" chances are a lot more ARE going to use them.

We wont just be competing with the average first time Disney newb. We will be in the pool with the Travel agent with 300 Clients going for a Spring break vacation, going online at 60 days and starting to scoop up all the FP+s for their clients.

This!! The marketing WILL be shoved down the throat of every person who books through a TA, especially the newbs.

 

[practicallyperfect77]

Of course, as I pointed out earlier, the difference now will be that travel agents will be able to go on at 60 days out, and book FPs for their clients ... and they will. Even if the clients don't use the FPs, though, if someone actually GIVES them a schedule and says "go" chances are a lot more ARE going to use them.

We wont just be competing with the average first time Disney newb. We will be in the pool with the Travel agent with 300 Clients going for a Spring break vacation, going online at 60 days and starting to scoop up all the FP+s for their clients.

Uughhh...I didn't think about TAs doing the booking b/c it's a personal account. I'm really not sure what to think. I was there a couple weeks ago (stayed at Pop so only FP+). While I do feel that decreased the amount of attractions I was able to experience, I still had a great time and band as able to ride many headliners more than once due to getting.to the parks before it opened. I can't imagine trying to book FP+ if TAs are able to book for their clients.

 

[wisblue]

The difference is that while capacity for BOG may be low, the number of people trying for it are also lower.

However, even if the numbers of people wanting to get a reservation isn't any lower, that's largely irrelevant as long as the capacity remains small relative to demand.

If you have a capacity of 100 and 200 people that want in, you have a problem. That problem doesn't change if you have a capacity of 10,000 and 15,000 want in. The demand might be less, but it still greatly outstrips capacity. Even if you had 14,000 people wanting in instead of 15,000, you're still going to run out.

It doesn't have to be right at the 60 day window. For it to be less flexible than FP-, it can be any time between 1 day and 60 days out. Any time you have to plan ahead of time is an inferior system. You'd only want to make sure you book 60 days out so you can get the time you want, if it's available.

EDIT: Also, if you've ever logged in to reserve a boarding pass for Southwest Airlines exactly 24 hours before your flight, but no matter how much you hit the "refresh button," you end up with a B group boarding spot . . . you can easily imagine how it's going to be with many thousands more people trying to do the same thing.

Flexibility is a whole different issue. The discussion leading up to this is just about how quickly FP+ will run out.

On the Southwest flights, I was really talking about booking the flight itself because if you're traveling at a busy time the fares go up quickly and don't come down. To book a flight on the first day they are available you have to know when they are opening up the schedule to cover your travel dates and then be prepared to act. The cost of missing that window opening can be hundreds of dollars for a round trip for a family. Getting or not getting a ride on TSMM not worth anything close to that.

Try this sometime while paper FPs are still around. Stand near the FP return and offer people $50 apiece for their FPs. I'd bet you get some takers.

The boarding position is a terrible analogy. For that, you have a small population of about 200 people who are planning for a flight one day away, so it is high on their priority list. Once you account for people who have paid extra for the preferred boarding positions, there aren't that many A spots available. Plus, I have gotten A positions about half the time.

 

[Silock]

Flexibility is a whole different issue. The discussion leading up to this is just about how quickly FP+ will run out.

It's not entirely about how quickly it will fill up. It's also about what spots are going to be left to switch to if you have to cancel a FP for some reason.

Try this sometime while paper FPs are still around. Stand near the FP return and offer people $50 apiece for their FPs. I'd bet you get some takers.

Uh, what? I'm not sure what led you to believe that I'm made of money. But yes, I'd guess you would get quite a few takers. That's a refund of an entire day's worth of a ticket on a multi-day ticket.

Once you account for people who have paid extra for the preferred boarding positions, there aren't that many A spots available. Plus, I have gotten A positions about half the time.

Have you ever tried it and see what position you get if you wait 5 minutes? 15 minutes? An hour?

Now, think about that kind of timeline on a 60-day scale. You'll probably get a massive spike in takers right as the deadline is up, tapering off to a low right up to about a week or so before when it spikes up again as people take the remaining FP+ spots.

Now, what happens when it's the day-of, and you need to switch? It doesn't project to be a pretty picture.

 

[wisblue]

As long as we're into the math, what percentage of guests book their packages through travel agents?