2023 resale price speculation

[AnnaKristoff2013]

Did an insurance company leave the state?

Florida has weird laws regarding insurance that has caused many to nearly go bankrupt and leave the state. There was a roofing scam that went on for years that basically had thousands of people getting free new roofs from their insurance companies because of the way FL law is set up. Insurers have fled the state as a result.

 

[Bearval]

SSR at 95 on Fidelity, geez. Poly in the 150s. Prices are coming down. There's so much on the market and there are always motivated sellers.

This will be interesting against the pricing for DLT and Poly2.

Just wait until it is announced by our government that we are officially in a recession, the bottom will fall out of the prices like they did 2007-2009. People will be dumping DVC to get out from under the yearly MFs especially if they have adjustable mortgages.

 

[BamaGuy44]

Just wait until it is announced by our government that we are officially in a recession, the bottom will fall out of the prices like they did 2007-2009. People will be dumping DVC to get out from under the yearly MFs especially if they have adjustable mortgages.

We're safe for a while then because this administration will never officially admit to being in a recession. They'll just choose to ignore the traditional definition of the term, as they're doing now.

 

[Bearval]

We're safe for a while then because this administration will never officially admit to being in a recession. They'll just choose to ignore the traditional definition of the term, as they're doing now.

I am going to have to give you that one. Ok, when people fully realize we are in a recession and have to decide on paying bills and cutting back on luxury items, DVC will be what goes especially if they have an adjustable mortgage and a new vehicle is in their future. I for one will be tempted to add points if the resale prices drop enough.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

Florida has weird laws regarding insurance that has caused many to nearly go bankrupt and leave the state. There was a roofing scam that went on for years that basically had thousands of people getting free new roofs from their insurance companies because of the way FL law is set up. Insurers have fled the state as a result.

78% of all lawsuits anywhere in the US that are people suing insurance companies, are in the state of Florida. Either the companies there are especially terrible or there’s a specific Florida problem that makes it extremely advantageous to sue insurers.

The state is actually trying to pass a bill now under the assumption that the later is the case that will make suing an insurance company much harder.

All of this is interesting but impacts to cost are MUCH higher on homeowners than on commercial properties. Florida commercial property insurance is among the highest in the nation (hurricanes matter) but isn’t a total unicorn like they are with the crazy homeowners insurance rates.

 

[BamaGuy44]

I am going to have to give you that one. Ok, when people fully realize we are in a recession and have to decide on paying bills and cutting back on luxury items, DVC will be what goes especially if they have an adjustable mortgage and a new vehicle is in their future. I for one will be tempted to add points if the resale prices drop enough.

No question people will realize it on their own and have some tough choices to make. I was just taking a jab at our friends in Washington My current plan is to wait for Poly 2 and add on direct, but I'm with you. If the prices drop far enough in the next year or so, resale will be very tempting.

 

[tom1944]

Is it common for any administration to admit they are governing while we are in a recession?

I don’t believe the attempt to sugar coat economic news is unique to any particular party or administration

And it does not matter what an administration say’s families know their own specific economic situation.

 

[Bearval]

No question people will realize it on their own and have some tough choices to make. I was just taking a jab at our friends in Washington My current plan is to wait for Poly 2 and add on direct, but I'm with you. If the prices drop far enough in the next year or so, resale will be very tempting.

If we have a full blown recession same as 2007-2009 you will see places like AKL roll back to low 80's.

 

[Sandisw]

Let’s get this topic back to connecting to resale values and not delve into talk that could be viewed by others as political or out of bounds.

 

[BamaGuy44]

nevermind, getting back off politics

 

[E2ME2]

Fidelity is more realistic and doesn't post crazy expensive listings that no one is going to buy. Fidelity also doesn't negotiate as much in my experience.

I think it's fair to make an offer matching Fidelity elsewhere. Fidelity is not wrong about value.

Any stats on what volume of DVC resale does Fidelity process, and how they compare to other DVC resellers as a percent of total resale sales ??

 

[sethschroeder]

Florida has weird laws regarding insurance that has caused many to nearly go bankrupt and leave the state. There was a roofing scam that went on for years that basically had thousands of people getting free new roofs from their insurance companies because of the way FL law is set up. Insurers have fled the state as a result.

Yes but you didn't answer the question.

Did one leave between last year and this year that would do something drastic to the DVC insurance?

This is all how things have changed to where resale prices will go and one of the comments was insurance.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

Any stats on what volume of DVC resale does Fidelity process, and how they compare to other DVC resellers as a percent of total resale sales ??

There’s no easy way to track that since sales only list the title company. Typically they have about half as many listings as DVC Resale Market but more than anyone else besides them. I’d guess DVCRM has somewhere between a quarter and a third of all DVC resales and Fidelity, www.DVCStore.com, and another 2 larger brokers are roughly in the ballpark of 15% a piece, then there’s a long tail of smaller dedicated DVC sites and of course your oddball places like eBay or Redweek.

 

[Mai Ku Tiki]

Yes but you didn't answer the question.

Did one leave between last year and this year that would do something drastic to the DVC insurance?

Yes. FLA Govt considers it a "crisis" according to this news piece. But whether DVC is or has ever been impacted by it, maybe others here know more. It has been an ongoing issue in FLA generally since at least the 90s.

https://www.wfla.com/8-on-your-side/united-property-casualty-insurance-ending-business-in-florida/

 

[sethschroeder]

Yes. FLA Govt considers it a "crisis" according to this news piece. But whether DVC is or has ever been impacted by it, maybe others here know more. It has been an ongoing issue in FLA generally since at least the 90s.

https://www.wfla.com/8-on-your-side/united-property-casualty-insurance-ending-business-in-florida/

Finally after 3 responses someone providing an example.

Based on the article they said there were 140k insurance policies so with roughly 7m just residential properties (not individual insurance policies an apartment complex might have) in the state that means they held a 2% market share in the state.

So while there might be an issue for individual residents especially those along the coast thats unlikely to be an issue for Disney with their location and properties.

Finally someone else I think brought it up but lets breakdown the current costs:
At Riviera $0.1569 of the dues is attributed to insurance. This means its 2.7% of the budget for dues and even less when you consider everything you are paying each year.
At Boardwalk $0.1192 of the dues is attributed to insurance. This would make up 2% of the budget at that location.

If you were to have 150 points that would you would be paying $17.88-$23.53 annually for those two resorts. Even if they doubled the insurance rates its barely anything on the total cost that would make someone think one way or another regarding buying DVC.

Honestly it might be MORE likely that someone might buy DVC now rather than take on the risk of owning a stand alone property.

 

[Mai Ku Tiki]

Finally after 3 responses someone providing an example.

Based on the article they said there were 140k insurance policies so with roughly 7m just residential properties (not individual insurance policies an apartment complex might have) in the state that means they held a 2% market share in the state.

So while there might be an issue for individual residents especially those along the coast thats unlikely to be an issue for Disney with their location and properties.

Finally someone else I think brought it up but lets breakdown the current costs:
At Riviera $0.1569 of the dues is attributed to insurance. This means its 2.7% of the budget for dues and even less when you consider everything you are paying each year.
At Boardwalk $0.1192 of the dues is attributed to insurance. This would make up 2% of the budget at that location.

If you were to have 150 points that would you would be paying $17.88-$23.53 annually for those two resorts. Even if they doubled the insurance rates its barely anything on the total cost that would make someone think one way or another regarding buying DVC.

Honestly it might be MORE likely that someone might buy DVC now rather than take on the risk of owning a stand alone property.

LOL! Well, I provided a link in my earlier response you missed ? Obviously your only point was to make your point. HOOORAY for you.
Hope you had fun.

 

[Lumpy1106]

Whether the word "recession" is used or not, well, if it quacks like a duck and walks like a duck...
2008 was a different monster - that was all-out fraud on the part of the banks. Disney took that pretty hard - temporarily closing some resorts (POFQ), putting projects on hold (what was to be AoA). This isn't that, but I do think that tourism will slow down enough to illicit a response from Disney. Think "free dining" if DDP was a thing (and it isn't right now). Chapek's nickel and diming to milk every penny out of visitors is not going to make it easy. After all, you don't lower prices when profits are down. But, back to OP, lower demand for hotels has to correlate with lower demand for DVC. I would think it is almost certain resale prices will come down. If the recession hits hard enough Disney will be in no position to counter with ROFR buybacks. Who is buying the next refill of popcorn for this one?

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

I mean if we do have a hard recession in 2023 I think it’s pretty obvious prices will fall; GDP grew almost 3% last quarter and most 2023 forecasters are saying between -1% and +1%, so I’m not sure we’re headed for armageddon.

Honestly, I’m really more interested in debating the scenario where we aren’t, because it’s pretty obvious what will happen to DVC prices if the bottom falls out of the economy.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

I’m gonna make some guesses.

June 2023 lowest price available (excluding auctions):
SSR: 88
OKW: 80
AKV: 110
VGC: 220
RVA: 110
BLT: 135
BWV:108
BRV: 90

Poly, VGF, and Beach Club seam hard to guess for me so I’m not gonna and I don’t follow the prices of the ones not near parks.

Anyone else want to make some guesses?

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

I’m gonna make some guesses.

June 2023 lowest price available (excluding auctions):
SSR: 88
OKW: 80
AKV: 110
VGC: 220
RVA: 110
BLT: 135
BWV:108
BRV: 90

Poly, VGF, and Beach Club seam hard to guess for me so I’m not gonna and I don’t follow the prices of the ones not near parks.

Anyone else want to make some guesses?

i think you’re right about BLT (which is what I’m waiting to buy next). I’m already seeing it at $145. $135 doesn’t seem unbelievable.