Would you change your trip based on updates to the Crowd Calendar?

[Timothy02359]

Nope.

 

[Klayfish]

"Crowd calendars" are a joke. They're nothing more than wild guesses...at best. They're also deceptive and misleading.

 

[holden]

Like PP said, crowd calendars are worthless. There are only two types of crowd days in WDW...crowded and more crowded. SWGE might bring a new level of “most crowded.”

 

[gharter]

I look at the crowd calendars to get an idea of what crowds may be . However, I have never changed or cancelled a trip based on them.
This fall, after SWGE opens, the calendars will be totally useless. They will be based on old data that doesn't include SWGE and adding that is a guess.
The answer is this fall and probably all of next year will be crowded. Expect that, plan for that, and if it isn't, thats a bonus.

 

[Ladyandthepuppies]

The Dis Unplugged podcast interviewed Len Testa about the Touring Plans methodology behind their crowd calendar forecasts. I found it to be really interesting, it was back on 3/6/18 if you want to look it up. I do tend to put stock in their crowd calendar forecasts, they do take into account hundreds of factors to try to make their 'best guess' of what the crowds will look like.

Of course, no one has a crystal ball so no one can predict crowds with 100% accuracy. We went the first week in Sept 2017... crowds were supposed to be in the 5s but ended up at level 1 due to Hurricane Irma. No one could have predicted that!

OP it's off topic but I think it's worth mentioning... after getting stuck in FL during Hurricane Irma, we spent an extra $1k unexpectedly (our flight home was canceled and we couldn't get another one till after the storm so we spent 4 extra nights in our deluxe hotel, 4 extra days of food, paying for laundry, etc. etc.) We loved our Sept trip but I wouldn't do it again without trip insurance.

 

[kiford]

I use it to get a basic idea of when I might want to go as long as it fits with my timing. I use it to maybe change up my plans for which park to visit on which days. But not to change my trip dates once I've booked. I'll just work with projections and actual crowds the day of. I'm not even that committed to my plans which may change on a daily basis depending on what we feel like. So no way would I ever change bookings because of a crown calendar.

 

[kboo]

I look at the crowd calendars to get an idea of what crowds may be . However, I have never changed or cancelled a trip based on them.
This fall, after SWGE opens, the calendars will be totally useless. They will be based on old data that doesn't include SWGE and adding that is a guess.
The answer is this fall and probably all of next year will be crowded. Expect that, plan for that, and if it isn't, thats a bonus.

Somewhat straying from the OP -
We are going Easter Week 2019, long before THAT LAND opens. Touring plans has the crowd calendar at 6-8 for every park except DHS, which is listed as a "1" for several days we are there. Anyone have any thoughts why, other than "the people who are planning to go to DHS are pushing their trips to after 8/29"? I mean, it would be great if DHS were indeed that empty, but I can't imagine that being the case, especially on a holiday week.

 

[Shughart]

Not by a day or two. Maybe by a year or two..

 

[SarahC97]

"Crowd calendars" are a joke. They're nothing more than wild guesses...at best. They're also deceptive and misleading.

And they're based on old, outdated information. I'm really sad to see people put so much stock in them.

To the OP, as the others have said, stick with what you've got. Assume it'll be crowded and have a good plan -- you'll be able to do everything you want. I will say, however, that you are right in the fact that MK will be less crowded on party days -- significantly so. I would expect large crowds on that Saturday if you switch your days. But, as mentioned, taking advantage of rope drop and having a plan will help you overcome any crowd situation. Have fun!

 

[memo10]

Not based on Touring Plans. They’re notorious for predicting low numbers and changing them last minute. I wouldn’t put any stock in them at all.

 

[KenHutch]

When I began planning our last trip the crowds were projected to be 4-6 most days. A month before the trip they changed to 8-9's. Knowing what we know we still managed to ride anything we wanted and had a blast. Not to be insulting remember this most people do not hit this site and plan. They mill around.

 

[OpieDoodle]

If you're only talking a single day then no I wouldn't, especially since we're talking a major land opening. I use the calendar to avoid peak seasons when I am initially planning but I don't actually go super in depth to use it to pick which parks I am going to on what days. These calendars are just based on trends, you can't really use a trend for a significant park change so it will honestly be a shot in the dark regardless.

I don't think changing your hollywood studios day will make a difference regardless of weekend versus weekday. Its going to be a mad house regardless of the day the first couple months of it opening.

 

[kaybird]

No. I did change dates for free dining.

 

[kylieh]

"Crowd calendars" are a joke. They're nothing more than wild guesses...at best. They're also deceptive and misleading.

You sound burnt by them. I read the TouringPlans blogs and for the most part they are pretty accurate. I used to do prediction for a job, many moons ago, there is science to it that many will never understand.

 

[Klayfish]

You sound burnt by them. I read the TouringPlans blogs and for the most part they are pretty accurate. I used to do prediction for a job, many moons ago, there is science to it that many will never understand.

No, I've never used them, I've never believed in them. There's no way to predict what a crowd is going to be on a random Tuesday three months from now. Far too many variables for those guesses to have any accuracy value. You can make broad generalizations such as Xmas and Spring Break are busier than June, but anything more granular is nothing but a complete WAG, IMO. Might as well pull a number out of a hat, it'll have the same odds of being right.

Besides, they call themselves "crowd calendars" when it's not even crowds they're predicting, it's wait times which may or may not have relevance to crowd size. So why not call it a "wait time calendar"? Just IMO, but that's rather deceptive.

Yes, I know and respect that everyone is entitled to do what suits them. But as a PP said, it's just a shame when people post things like "TP (or insert name here) just changed their prediction from a 5 to a 6, should I change all of my plans? Do I need to avoid that park?". Or they'll post how legitimately stressed they are due to the predictions. Makes me sad to see.

 

[quandrea]

No, I've never used them, I've never believed in them. There's no way to predict what a crowd is going to be on a random Tuesday three months from now. Far too many variables for those guesses to have any accuracy value. You can make broad generalizations such as Xmas and Spring Break are busier than June, but anything more granular is nothing but a complete WAG, IMO. Might as well pull a number out of a hat, it'll have the same odds of being right.

Besides, they call themselves "crowd calendars" when it's not even crowds they're predicting, it's wait times which may or may not have relevance to crowd size. So why not call it a "wait time calendar"? Just IMO, but that's rather deceptive.

Yes, I know and respect that everyone is entitled to do what suits them. But as a PP said, it's just a shame when people post things like "TP (or insert name here) just changed their prediction from a 5 to a 6, should I change all of my plans? Do I need to avoid that park?". Or they'll post how legitimately stressed they are due to the predictions. Makes me sad to see.

I agree. With any trip to Disney, I approach it with a good plan and then enjoy myself. Could be a quiet day in January or Christmas Day at the Magic Kingdom. Crowd predictions never factor into it.

 

[Lydia S]

Don't change just for 1 day. Instead, consider getting there for Rope Drop, or staying late. We went to MK on what we had originally thought was going to be a 4 crowd level day, ended up being an 8. The worst part of the day was the afternoon, but in the morning, we were able to do a bunch of rides with minimal wait times (less than 20 mins) and got 5-6 additional fast passes by refreshing the app. It wasn't nearly as bad as we though it would be.

 

[mrsap]

Definitely not. Even at a predicted Level 6, the crowds aren’t terrible. Besides, these are just a guesstimate of what they feel the crowds will be, I wouldn’t let it worry you. Hope you have a great time!

 

[SarahC97]

No, I've never used them, I've never believed in them. There's no way to predict what a crowd is going to be on a random Tuesday three months from now. Far too many variables for those guesses to have any accuracy value. You can make broad generalizations such as Xmas and Spring Break are busier than June, but anything more granular is nothing but a complete WAG, IMO. Might as well pull a number out of a hat, it'll have the same odds of being right.

Besides, they call themselves "crowd calendars" when it's not even crowds they're predicting, it's wait times which may or may not have relevance to crowd size. So why not call it a "wait time calendar"? Just IMO, but that's rather deceptive.

Yes, I know and respect that everyone is entitled to do what suits them. But as a PP said, it's just a shame when people post things like "TP (or insert name here) just changed their prediction from a 5 to a 6, should I change all of my plans? Do I need to avoid that park?". Or they'll post how legitimately stressed they are due to the predictions. Makes me sad to see.

I'll just add to this too that Josh from EasyWDW recently had a whole blog post about wait times and he said this (after a really deep dive into the information Touring Plans provides) about the information they share:

"As recently as last year, TouringPlans was using data stretching back 8+ years in their predictions. And while you might initially think, “the more the merrier,” the fact is that putting any weight whatsoever to wait times before FastPass+ came online in 2014 makes absolutely no sense. Spaceship Earth’s wait times throughout 2013, when it didn’t offer FastPass+, are irrelevant. Yet, TouringPlans was still using that data in their predictions up through April 2018. Using those lower wait times from 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014 is going to produce predictions that are too low. The same thing is happening with their Animal Kingdom predictions. Even if they only used January 2017 and January 2018 wait times in their wait time predictions for January 2019, that still means 50% of the data used comes from before Pandora opened."

So, while there are things I truly like about TP and why I have a subscription, TP isn't as "scientific" in their approach to data as they lead people to believe.I give little weight to what they say a crowd is going to look like on a certain day. The truth of the matter is that no one knows (except Disney and they're not sharing), but you can glean from information leading up to your dates or from the recent past what you may be able to expect. But to plan your whole vacation around it? That's just asking for disappointment, IMO.

 

[gorkt]

Honestly, I wouldn't plan based on "low crowd seasons" anymore. It just isn't predictable, particularly with all the changes going on this fall in HS. I would anticipate HS to be slammed pretty much most of the fall, and the effect of GE might push that out to the other parks. I am going to plan on hitting more EMH than I ever have before and might spring for multiple paid events.