Would you change your trip based on updates to the Crowd Calendar?

[SarahC97]

Honestly, I wouldn't plan based on "low crowd seasons" anymore. It just isn't predictable, particularly with all the changes going on this fall in HS. I would anticipate HS to be slammed pretty much most of the fall, and the effect of GE might push that out to the other parks. I am going to plan on hitting more EMH than I ever have before and might spring for multiple paid events.

I was listening to a podcast just today talking about how they expect the attendance numbers for HS as a whole to go up by 40-50%. Makes sense if you look at how Pandora has impacted wait times at AK.

 

[Jocelynaus]

.

 

[Mambo Junkie]

I read crowd calendars backwards. I realize everyone else is reading them so when they say a certain day is low crowd expectations, that's when everyone goes. I don't, because I know it will be crowded. Just expect it to be busy at HS. Personally, I would not go to a predicted busy park on any weekend day. Definitely don't do Epcot on a Saturday or Sunday during food and wine. The front wasn't so bad, but the food and wine kiosk areas were very busy.

 

[disneymagicgirl]

One day, no. But if you can move it one month...yes.

 

[Klayfish]

I'll just add to this too that Josh from EasyWDW recently had a whole blog post about wait times and he said this (after a really deep dive into the information Touring Plans provides) about the information they share:

"As recently as last year, TouringPlans was using data stretching back 8+ years in their predictions. And while you might initially think, “the more the merrier,” the fact is that putting any weight whatsoever to wait times before FastPass+ came online in 2014 makes absolutely no sense. Spaceship Earth’s wait times throughout 2013, when it didn’t offer FastPass+, are irrelevant. Yet, TouringPlans was still using that data in their predictions up through April 2018. Using those lower wait times from 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014 is going to produce predictions that are too low. The same thing is happening with their Animal Kingdom predictions. Even if they only used January 2017 and January 2018 wait times in their wait time predictions for January 2019, that still means 50% of the data used comes from before Pandora opened."

So, while there are things I truly like about TP and why I have a subscription, TP isn't as "scientific" in their approach to data as they lead people to believe.I give little weight to what they say a crowd is going to look like on a certain day. The truth of the matter is that no one knows (except Disney and they're not sharing), but you can glean from information leading up to your dates or from the recent past what you may be able to expect. But to plan your whole vacation around it? That's just asking for disappointment, IMO.

Interesting...didn't even realize that. What a joke.

 

[SaintsManiac]

I read Josh's blog about this and I agree with him. The best way to figure out "crowd predictions" is to simply look at the ticket prices on Disney's site. That will tell you everything you need to know.

I keep my TP subscription for other reasons. I don't think it's right that people plan entire trips around their "data."

 

[SarahC97]

I read Josh's blog about this and I agree with him. The best way to figure out "crowd predictions" is to simply look at the ticket prices on Disney's site. That will tell you everything you need to know.

I keep my TP subscription for other reasons. I don't think it's right that people plan entire trips around their "data."

Agree. That is probably the best predictor we've got for how busy it will be.

 

[rpb718]

While I never changed a trip around crowd calendars, I would sometimes take them into account planning my park days. Years ago they were very useful. But slowly over time, with park additions and changes to WDW operating practices (cutting back on the number of CMs and/or running certain rides at less than capacity based on need) even parks where crowds are actually manageable can be perceived more crowded than they actually are because the ride throughput may be lower. So now I have certain personal guidelines that I follow as to which park days to plan ahead of time, and when all else fails - utilize hoppers.