Will VWL prices drop once Contemp. Vil. go online?

[Anjelica]

Same here. That's how we ended up owning VWL- we love the theme. The fact that it is located only a boatride away from MK is just a bonus. We love AKV, too.

As well as us - if AKV had been available a couple of years ago when we bought we would have bought there. I am glad we own at both though as the variation in location will be nice changes. Additionally I do love the theming at both locations.

 

[TSMIII]

My purpose in posting this thread, was to objectively look at the economic effect of a HUGE, new resort located ON THE MONORAIL on potential resales, most specifically VWL....

I felt that KT/CRV (or whatever people are calling it) jeopordizes that and want to see whether my alarm was justified or not.

Granted that many people buy at a particular resort for subjective reasons, ie theme, character, etc., many did not have the opportunity or financial resources to buy everywhere. Also, there are a group of people that clearly have no built in loyalty to a given DVC resort and bought out of convenience or simply because they were at WDW at the time.

That group of people will have some effect on resales and purchases. Of that, there is no doubt. The question become the nature and scope of the effect on that specific group of buyers/sellers and how that will affect pricing on resales. Will it be minimal, will it cause prices to go up or down.

My tendency is to believe that once there is something bigger nearby, with more capacity, it will drive down prices when located next to something smaller...

On a purely economic basis (disregarding how much people who own VWL love it and would never leave it), would the people who are interested in buying VWL solely on the grounds of proximity to MK really continue to purchase a VWL resale..given the added Monorail access, and other objective indicia of KT/CRV? I continue to think not.

David

If there are people whose only criteria for buying VWL resale is the proximity to MK, and they are now given another option in KT, then I think one point that may have been missed is the longer contract life of KT vs. VWL and how this may sway their decision. I tend to believe it would tip the scale in favor of KT.

That being said, however, I'm not convinced that there would be a substantial enough number of these people to have any more than a minimal impact on VWL resale pricing, if any at all.

 

[Deb & Bill]

If there are people whose only criteria for buying VWL resale is the proximity to MK, and they are now given another option in KT, then I think one point that may have been missed is the longer contract life of KT vs. VWL and how this may sway their decision. I tend to believe it would tip the scale in favor of KT.

That being said, however, I'm not convinced that there would be a substantial enough number of these people to have any more than a minimal impact on VWL resale pricing, if any at all.

We bought into VWL for the theming there, not the closeness to MK.

 

[Peepster]

I love the theme of Wilderness Lodge. I get a great feeling walking around the place. It's hard to describe. That is one of the reasons why I believe that the price will not go down that much.

wildernessDad, I so totally agree with you about the great feeling when you walk around the Lodge and grounds!

We love the relaxing boat ride and appreciate the proximity of our fav park, MK, but that's not what prompted us to buy here. I'm ashamed to admit that whenever we first walk into the Lodge on a trip, my peepers mist over. And we have no desire to even stay at KT.

(Okay, how did I screw up the quote thing THIS time?)

 

[4Pluto]

I think one point that may have been missed is the longer contract life of KT vs. VWL and how this may sway their decision. I tend to believe it would tip the scale in favor of KT.

So maybe this might inspire DVC to offer a contract extension for VWL similar to OKW?

 

[gblast123]

If there are people whose only criteria for buying VWL resale is the proximity to MK, and they are now given another option in KT, then I think one point that may have been missed is the longer contract life of KT vs. VWL and how this may sway their decision. I tend to believe it would tip the scale in favor of KT.

That being said, however, I'm not convinced that there would be a substantial enough number of these people to have any more than a minimal impact on VWL resale pricing, if any at all.

You are the first one to bring this point up and it is a very important point!!

Something that I and everyone else have missed far.

I do remember when I bought my first SSR contract from DVC, I was comparing an OKW resale. When I brought up the price difference to the Sales Rep, he pointed out the difference in length of time. That was one of many factors in buying SSR vs. and OKW resale. Not necessarily the most important but..it was one consideration.

That argument would also apply to BWV and BCV as well as OKW, if unextended, that is.

I guess the DVC sales reps will have that as part of their pitch.

Great catch!!

David

 

[Deb & Bill]

I love the theme of Wilderness Lodge. I get a great feeling walking around the place. It's hard to describe. That is one of the reasons why I believe that the price will not go down that much.

(Okay, how did I screw up the quote thing THIS time?)

You left off the "[/QUOTE]" at the end of the quote.

 

[TSMIII]

We bought into VWL for the theming there, not the closeness to MK.

Yes, and clearly there are many like you. However, if I understood the OP's analysis correctly, the question refers to those people, unlike you, who are only looking to buy VWL because it is close to MK. In other words, they could care less about the theming and are chiefly concerned with staying near the Magic Kingdom. The OP believes that KT as an option would pull these people away from VWL, thereby decreasing demand and resale prices for VWL.

My point was that for those people who are not interested in the theming but only for the closeness to MK, the longer contract life of a KT DVC may be another factor in the decision that causes them to select KT over VWL. However, I'm doubtful that there would be enough of these people to have any real impact on VWL demand/resale prices, especially considering there would need to be more than enough of these people to offset the demand generated by people like yourself who will still continue to buy at VWL for the theming and other attributes.

 

[gblast123]

So maybe this might inspire DVC to offer a contract extension for VWL similar to OKW?

I am not sure that I would extend depending on what the extension price is and what incentives are being offered at the time.

When the OKW extension came out, mathematically, it made more sense to sell OKW, add $15 and buy SSR, with the incentives that they were offering at that time for SSR (which were $500 visa Dis. Dollars, 270 incentive point, prior use year, and no closing costs, $10 credit - which was an awesome promotion!!)

There is no expection of any promotions at KT/CRV so the math may not work out, but it would be part of the equation whether to sell BWV (I would never sell BCV or VWL personally) and apply any extension money to buy KT/CRV versus paying the extension amounts and keeping BWV.

Whether I would extend at VWL would be a tough question...if it were offered, I would be mighty tempted..but it would depend on the nature and cost of the extension.

David

 

[gblast123]

Just an FYI - I recently looked at the posting at TSS - There are a number of listings at $76 or below with 08 points (albeit a December UY) for VWL.

Quite frankly, have bought VWL for above $84, with closing costs, I am quite concerned.

Apparently there is a possibility of passing ROFR even at these low levels.

Normally, I would be very tempted to buy this, however, at this point I am going to pass!!

Anyone still think that KT/CRV still won't have a effect on VWL resales?

 

[ZekeKelso]

Just an FYI - I recently looked at the posting at TSS - There are a number of listings at $76 or below with 08 points (albeit a December UY) for VWL.

I see exactly one - at $76. And it's a 330 point contract.

Anyone still think that KT/CRV still won't have a effect on VWL resales?

KT may well have an impact on VWL resales. But I don't think it will be from masses of folks who just wanted to be close to the MK abandoning VWL.

I looked very closely at BW and VWL 12 to 6 months ago. I've checked them both over the last few days. I see the same trends at each resort:

- on average, similar contracts seem to be slightly cheaper - $1-2/point
- small contracts have held their value best
- large (250+ points) contracts have held their value worst

Is that a KT effect - or just the general state of the economy / real estate market? Has the increase in the number of choices made large contracts undesirable? Not to mention the contracts being a year older, with 2057 and now 2060 contracts coming up for sale (there's one thing I think KT will do - make the 2042 contracts seem short).

EDIT -

Just to throw out some numbers - after tracking for 6 months, I bought what looked like a good deal - 140 points, fully banked, $83/point. That was last year.

There are two comparable sales pending in the TSS listings

150 point contract, 125 banked $84/point
200 point contract, 100 banked $80/point

 

[gblast123]

Actually, there is one for $77 with all 08, one for $76 with all 08 and another for $74!! with most of 08 points gone.

Go to the main listing and you will see all three!!

There is another place, run by ******** Williams, where I saw a listing for $74 for VWL...with "make an offer" attached to it.

Several months ago I was looking and VWL was not available at anything close to these prices.

Normally, I would jump on these!!

Now, I am going to take a wait and see attitude!

You are quite correct in several aspects.

1) I agree that people won't start dumping and selling their VWL points....in fact, my thread was about the price of resales...the fact that less demand may lead to lower offers for VWL contracts. DVC is like owning a house, if you never sell, a lower resale value doesn't affect you.

2) Is this a KT/CRV effect or is it just a general DVC malaise with ROFR's recently? I cannot, nor can anyone, really tell at this point in time. That will be a ex-post facto analysis based on what happens during a several month period...of course there will be different conclusions drawn from the data.

It seems that resale prices are down in general because of the lack of ROFR activity...except at HHI (that is a strange one...), and nobody seems to understand why.

Well, it will be interesting to look at all the nay-sayers on this thread a few months hence!!

David

 

[Laxmom]

I'm going to chime in here that the reduction in price per point has more to do with the time left on the contracts than CRV or KT. And as the time on the contracts reduces, the price will continue to drop on the contracts that don't have extensions added if offered. Just plain economics.

I think there will be those who prefer the closeness to MK and sell but there will be those that prefer the ambience of VWL and keep their points. And I think there will be new members who buy KT's for the closeness and new members who buy VWL for the ambience in the future. I don't see a huge impact coming. Matter of fact, we are thinking of buying there when we purchase more points,as I stated before, because of the theme and surroundings.

 

[ldo]

granted, it was a 50 point contract, with 07 points and no 07 maint. fee, which I bought to get into DVC system---but I never considered closeness to MK--bought for theming and ability to book at 11 mths for Holidays---I think this is a BIG intangible that has to be factored in to the allure of VWL. We will add on at AKV (no interest in KT)--and might sell VWL in 3-5 years---or keep for the next 35.

 

[ZekeKelso]

Actually, there is one for $77 with all 08, one for $76 with all 08 and another for $74!! with most of 08 points gone.

Go to the main listing and you will see all three!!

I saw them - just didn't feel the other two fit your criteria.

It seems that resale prices are down in general because of the lack of ROFR activity...except at HHI (that is a strange one...), and nobody seems to understand why.

Side issue for antother day - I don't believe ROFR has a major impact on resale prices. The price is set by market supply and demand. Lots of folks here disagree.

 

[milmom6]

Do any of you consider cost of dues when adding on or buying in general? We only own 150points @ SSR, have considered a small add on, but I would consider the dues important, along with the length of years and cost.

 

[Chester's Mum]

Do any of you consider cost of dues when adding on or buying in general? We only own 150points @ SSR, have considered a small add on, but I would consider the dues important, along with the length of years and cost.

I would be interested in this also. I intend to buy at the contemporary but the number of points will be determined in part by the maintenance fees. As for the question of VWL decreasing in value when Kingdom Towers is built, it might, but I don't think it is suddenly going to drop like a stone. Contemporary is closer to MK, but there will still be people who just enjoy the theming of VWL. As for the monorail, when I stayed at the Contemporary, I didn't think it was as convenient as walking. I found there were quite long waits and it took a long time to get around the loop. The waits will surely increase with the opening of a new tower.

Also, given the projected higher point charts at contemporary, VWL might become like BWV standard category, which are in very high demand at certain times of year.

 

[codina818]

After reading this, I now really regret buying my SSR contract. It seemed like a good deal but the new tower coming up seems like it is worth waiting for.

Well, I guess I will just have to buy some more.

Daniel

 

[eliza61]

I love the theme of Wilderness Lodge. I get a great feeling walking around the place. It's hard to describe. That is one of the reasons why I believe that the price will not go down that much.

Also, you are not taking into consideration that VWL is a MUCH smaller DVC resort.

VWL = Apples

KT or CRV = Oranges

My fellow groupies said it all. My heart is into the lodge.

 

[thelionqueen]

Like many here have said, different locations and resorts appeal to different people. While I really like the VWL, I live in the Rocky Mountains and when I go to Florida, I don't want to feel like I am back in the Rocky Mountains. We really like BCV, and that's why we are waiting to close on our very first contract, at BCV. Being able to walk to Epcot or take the boat to DHS is one reason why, and SAB is another reason. KT doesn't appeal to us at all. So I think there is still going to be demand for all the different types of resorts.

I am SO glad I saw this post before putting up my comments. All I can say is DITTO DITTO DITTO DITTO

Wilderness Lodge is BEAUTIFUL, no doubt! But I want to go to Florida to experience the beach, sun and fun. I don't want to get a lodge theme, or Africa Theme, which is why neither of those DVC's appeal to me.

Having said that..a previous poster mentioned something about KTV being the most "popular" DVC. Obviously each DVC has its loyal fans and each will likely always attract buyers. However, in "general" I think KTV will have the popular general appeal. For those brand new to DVC I think KTV will be a much easier sell than say SSR (not that SSR is not amazing, I love it there too).

In any event, I personally like KTV for many reasons, but first and foremost is because it's a part of the Contemporary. I stayed at CR the very 1st trip I ever made to WDW and it is PURE Disney Magic to me. Seeing the monorail outside my door at contemporary, and seeing Mickey & Minnie from up above at Chef Mickey's was just amazing. So, KTV to me is as close to owning pure Disney magic as it comes; for me personally.

Good thing DVC has something for everyone and special to members hearts!