Will VWL prices drop once Contemp. Vil. go online?

[kfalsey]

kt- kingdom tower, what is crv. I thought kt will have monorail access too

 

[Deb & Bill]

kt- kingdom tower, what is crv. I thought kt will have monorail access too

KT=CRV. Same thing. Just a different name.

GBlast, are you over here trying to or something?

 

[DVC Mater]

I had another thought.

In fact, I would pick CRV over BWV and BCV as the first stop from monorail leaving would be the transportation center, then to epcot, and the first stop leaving Magic kingdom would be CRV.

I suspect that it will be considered the best DVC resort of all, when it is done.

I think there is a BIG difference in walking from KT tower to CRV building, waiting for monorail, transfer monorails at TTC, and ride to epcot, as supposed to rolling out of bed and WALKING to Epcot from BCV/BWV.

 

[BigDogMom7]

Like many here have said, different locations and resorts appeal to different people. While I really like the VWL, I live in the Rocky Mountains and when I go to Florida, I don't want to feel like I am back in the Rocky Mountains. We really like BCV, and that's why we are waiting to close on our very first contract, at BCV. Being able to walk to Epcot or take the boat to DHS is one reason why, and SAB is another reason. KT doesn't appeal to us at all. So I think there is still going to be demand for all the different types of resorts.

 

[jimmytammy]

IMO, I dont think VWL will be affected at all by KT. 2 totally different resorts. Every time I do an add-on at VWL, the price has gone up. I started at 72 per point in 2001, and just paid 101 this past week per pt. Having more resorts may affect the overall points value at all resorts, but it doesnt seem to me that VWL would be targeted.

 

[Laxmom]

I personally agree with the previous posters who love VWL for the theming. I also think that there won't be a price drop. This is a small resort with high demand. Even if the demand drops somewhat, this resort can afford that given it's size. There may be some who prefer CRV or KT, whatever it will be called, but there are just as many, if not more, who prefer the overall experience that VWL offers. The demand for DVC is there no matter what resort you look at. Given the choice between VWL and any other DVC resort on property and I would choose VWL every time. That is just my preference.

 

[dianeschlicht]

IMO, I dont think VWL will be affected at all by KT. 2 totally different resorts. Every time I do an add-on at VWL, the price has gone up. I started at 72 per point in 2001, and just paid 101 this past week per pt. Having more resorts may affect the overall points value at all resorts, but it doesnt seem to me that VWL would be targeted.

I agree. VWL is a very small resort with very heavy and specific theme. I think many people buy there fur the theme, embiance etc, and those aren't likely to be the same type of people who would want to buy KTV@C. I own at OKW and AKV both because of their themes and because they are quiet laid back resort destinations. I see VWL fitting into that same catagory, but I don't see KTV in that catagory at all. KTV would probably effect sales/resales of SSR most, since it is a destination based resort. In other words, people will decide if they want the activity of DTD or MK.

 

[Laxmom]

OT here but I am glad to hear that you bought OKW because of the theming. We are staying at OKW for the first time this summer. DH is apprehensive because he loves VWL so much.

 

[Deb & Bill]

OT here but I am glad to hear that you bought OKW because of the theming. We are staying at OKW for the first time this summer. DH is apprehensive because he loves VWL so much.

I haven't stayed at OKW for about two years and am looking forward to it in June. It's just a great place to vacation.

 

[Muushka]

VWL = Apples

KT or CRV = Oranges

 

[gblast123]

I think that people may be losing sight of the original purpose of this thread.

I didn't want to get into which resort is the best for them or the most favorite. Everyone owner at each resort can justify their purchase simply by stating their own personal preferences. A new resort will have no effect on these owners because they bought what they wanted and are happy with it.

My purpose in posting this thread, was to objectively look at the economic effect of a HUGE, new resort located ON THE MONORAIL on potential resales, most specifically VWL.

I have no axe to grind in any way regarding any particular resort. Between various family members and I, we have a total of over 4200 DVC points at all the various WDW resorts (no VB or HHI however), so I have no vested interest in deprecating any DVC resort in any way. In fact, it is quite the opposite...I have a substantial financial interest in insuring that DVC continues to increase prices in every way, significantly greater than most people here.

I felt that KT/CRV (or whatever people are calling it) jeopordizes that and want to see whether my alarm was justified or not.

Granted that many people buy at a particular resort for subjective reasons, ie theme, character, etc., many did not have the opportunity or financial resources to buy everywhere. Also, there are a group of people that clearly have no built in loyalty to a given DVC resort and bought out of convenience or simply because they were at WDW at the time.

That group of people will have some effect on resales and purchases. Of that, there is no doubt. The question become the nature and scope of the effect on that specific group of buyers/sellers and how that will affect pricing on resales. Will it be minimal, will it cause prices to go up or down.

My tendency is to believe that once there is something bigger nearby, with more capacity, it will drive down prices when located next to something smaller.

Let us look at BCV...assume that BWV didn't exist, how much would those points costs and how available would the rooms be? It is not a big logical leap to realize that without BWV, BCV would be virtually unobtainable within the 7 month window.

The fact that BWV is nearby and is a reasonable alternative (I know...there will be 10 posts how the 2 cannot compare..but try to ignore that for the sake of this hypothetical) makes BCV less exclusive..ie - there is more supply to offset the demand.

That, to me, is the proper analogy to the KT/CRV proximity to VWL. The monorail is an added complexity as well as the fact that KT/CRV is slated to have a much bigger pool, etc.

On a purely economic basis (disregarding how much people who own VWL love it and would never leave it), would the people who are interested in buying VWL solely on the grounds of proximity to MK really continue to purchase a VWL resale..given the added Monorail access, and other objective indicia of KT/CRV? I continue to think not.

David

 

[gblast123]

While the location of VWL was one of the reasons I bought points there (the only MK DVC resort), the main reason is the magnificently rendered theme and the quiet, peaceful and romantic setting. I don't think KTR will come close to VWL when it comes to theme.

Once KTR goes on sale, I will add-on points there but still keep my VWL points.

Of course, not everyone is like me and there could be a small drop in VWL resales due to KTR. I can see folks who are interested in VWL primarily because it's a MK resort want the better-located KTR and the monorail access.

Something that was brought up after I originally posted was the potential effect on other DVC resort...obviously SSR, AKV and OKW would be the least affected, if at all, but what do you think the effect on BWV and BCV will be?

To me, this is less clear. The monorail route should take the people from KT/CRV to TTP as its first stop. Thus, a visit to Epcot would be very tempting, even though it entails changing to another monorail.

Certainly it would be faster than going from SSR and OKW but would not be "walking distance" like BCV and BWV, yet still, a ride on the monorail had a thrill of its own and it brings you to the front of Epcot.

It negates some of the proximity advantage of BCV and BWV but is it enough? Will the combination of the Monorail, MK access and the huge pool make BCV less enticing? My gut reaction is yes..but I don't have any real numbers or a survey to back me up.

Maybe I will do a poll....

David

 

[bobbiwoz]

We will not be buying at the Contemporary. As a resort it is not nearly as attractive to me as VWL.

I think there is a huge difference between taking 2 monorails over to Epcot and walking from your DVC villa. I still think the BWV and BCV will be more attractive for those who want easy access to DHS and Epcot.

Bobbi

 

[DVC Mike]

KTR will be very attractive to those whose favorite park is MK, as no other DVC resort offers the ability to walk to the MK. The other big plus are the great views of the MK and Bay Lake. Finally, access to the monorail for quick jumps to Poly and GF.

Yes, you can access Epcot via a transfer at TTC, but it's not like BCV where you can simply stroll in. I don't see KTR impacting sales of folks primarily interested in Epcot and DHS, as both BCV and BWV will be best for that.

As for OKW and SSR, there are folks who prefer the condo feel of those resorts and probably wouldn't be interested in KTR as it's a big concrete tower. Same for those folks who love the lush theme of VWL and AKV.

Thus, KTR is something unique. It's the first big tower DVC and the first one with both walking access to MK and access to the monorail.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

KTR will be very attractive to those whose favorite park is MK, as no other DVC resort offers the ability to walk to the MK. The other big plus are the great views of the MK and Bay Lake. Finally, access to the monorail for quick jumps to Poly and GF.

Yes, you can access Epcot via a transfer at TTC, but it's not like BCV where you can simply stroll in. I don't see KTR impacting sales of folks primarily interested in Epcot and DHS, as both BCV and BWV will be best for that.

As for OKW and SSR, there are folks who prefer the condo feel of those resorts and probably wouldn't be interested in KTR as it's a big concrete tower. Same for those folks who love the lush theme of VWL and AKV.

Thus, KTR is something unique. It's the first big tower DVC and the first one with both walking access to MK and access to the monorail.

Not to mention it will be at least 15 stories high!! A high-rise hotel is definitely not for me, and I'm sure not for others too!

 

[global_mom]

Our simple answer to the OP's question would be this:

We would pass on a VWL resale and would choose KT instead even though it may cost much more. For us, the location of KT would trump the location of VWL. An added bonus to us would be the "high rise" lifestyle of KT even though we LOVE our stays at VWL.

Personally, I dont think that the KT will cause VWL resale vaule to drop signifcantly. People buy where they love to stay and the differences between KT and VWL will be so gigantic (from an architecture and style perspective) that most people will prefer one over the other. The resale market should still see plenty of folks who prefer VWL and will buy VWL. JMO.

 

[ZekeKelso]

My tendency is to believe that once there is something bigger nearby, with more capacity, it will drive down prices when located next to something smaller.

1) I think such effects are small
2) To the extent that it exists, you have the effect exactly backwards. Being small = higher (not lower prices).

Let us look at BCV..

A smaller resort next to a bigger resort. It's resale value is the highest of the 2042 resorts. In particular, significantly higher than the larger resort.

That, to me, is the proper analogy to the KT/CRV proximity to VWL.

The two resorts aren't necessarily attracting the same folks.

On a purely economic basis (disregarding how much people who own VWL love it and would never leave it), would the people who are interested in buying VWL solely on the grounds of proximity to MK

I don't think many folks choose VWL because it happens to be closest to the MK.

 

[ZekeKelso]

To me, this is less clear. The monorail route should take the people from KT/CRV to TTP as its first stop. Thus, a visit to Epcot would be very tempting, even though it entails changing to another monorail.

Certainly it would be faster than going from SSR and OKW

I'm not so sure this is true. And, in particular, getting home from EPCOT will be very slow.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

1)
A perfect example - a smaller resort next to a bigger resort. It's resale value is the highest of the 2042 resorts. In particular, significantly higher than the larger resort.

If the above reference is to BCV, that analogy is changing. In fact, Disney's price for BCV is exactly the same as BWV, $104/pt. The real factors in resale prices are supply and demand plus the devaluation over time, esp. for the 2042 resorts. Vero Beach and HHI are not in high demand. Their resale prices are considerably lower. BWV's demand has obviously equaled that of BCV as Disney has increased its new point purchase to equal that of BCV. SSR's resale demand is not high, we see this reflected in the drastic resale price drops even as it is still selling thru Disney. Disney's answer for OKW was the increase in length of time to 2057. This has had a great affect on the resale prices, not to mention Disney's new point purchase price. Again, supply vs. demand will determine the value's, not necisarilly it size or location.

 

[mikesmom]

I don't think it will be an issue at all. VWL is consistently a sellout at many times of the year because of theming. That's not going to change. Additionally, the draw of KT is MK and only MK if you don't enjoy the theming. If you don't have small children it's not a factor at all. Epcot, AK and the Studios are far more an adult draw than MK, IMO. Even if you have children - thinking ahead to when they grow also makes it a non-issue. We bought when DS was 16. MK was not even close to our prime destination. We haven't even walked into it in the last 4 years (DS is now 25). That's about to change as DS now has a new baby son. In 2-3 years we will again be interested in MK, but that will probably only last about 8 -10 years at most.