Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[Naglejen]

I think everyone was just bored at home during the lockdowns and decided to go shopping for future vacations, which kept demand high.

This is literally why we have two contracts in ROFR right now!

 

[sethschroeder]

I think it's less mass sell off and instead little to no ROFR in tandem with a slow decrease in price.

Remeber when you look back at previous ROFR threads think of each taken contract as a small increase to pricing as that individual has to buy another contract thus bidding against other individuals.

If however that person gets the contract there is now less people looking at contracts.

Also someone getting a contract taken I would suspect in the past is then more likely to increase their future offer prices.

Finally ROFR also plays a roll in brokers setting a baseline market price. They can do that even without ROFR but it's harder for them especially as contracts sit on the market for 2, 3, 4 or more weeks.

The month of October will be the bell weather in my opinion on what is going to happen as we will be past the 100 to 125 point increase which will for sure cause at least a few ROFR over the next month.

 

[Aussie RJ]

The only case I could see for a mass DVC sell off is if masks and travel restrictions persist for a long period and people start to see points expiring worthless.

I agree with this. Although I’m reminded that I bought for a 20+ year vacation plan. If one or two years don’t work out, then let’s look forward to year three and four. If I can’t travel in 2021 I hope domestically at least we see a spike in rental interest. In saying that it wasn’t too difficult to rent this year although I would have preferred a few more dollars per point. I never thought I would have to rent points btw..

 

[bookwormde]

8/15 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 80% of average

 

[Leahc117]

i would love to pick up my first contact (150ish thinking AKL) oct or dec use year with banked points. I keep hesitating after reading posts on here because 1. It seems like people here are getting better prices than I see listed. 2. I’ve heard that later in year prices drop a bit due to 2021 dues coming up. Does it make sense to wait it out until around oct/nov for a resale contract? I’m planning to get 100 direct before oct 1...and want to add 150 resale.

 

[poofyo101]

i would love to pick up my first contact (150ish thinking AKL) oct or dec use year with banked points. I keep hesitating after reading posts on here because 1. It seems like people here are getting better prices than I see listed. 2. I’ve heard that later in year prices drop a bit due to 2021 dues coming up. Does it make sense to wait it out until around oct/nov for a resale contract? I’m planning to get 100 direct before oct 1...and want to add 150 resale.

Depending on the price point you are trying to achieve, I would try now. Disney was buying back last year anything below 100 before dues and closing were considered.

 

[Nabas]

It's often cited that DVC prices during the 2008 recession didn't bottom until a couple years after the stock market. I think the same would have to be true in this case as you have to see demand decrease. We have a 100 page thread here tracking prices so obviously there is still demand.

Yes, prices bottomed out in 2010 and only slightly improved in 2011/2012.

 

[Spark65]

i would love to pick up my first contact (150ish thinking AKL) oct or dec use year with banked points. I keep hesitating after reading posts on here because 1. It seems like people here are getting better prices than I see listed. 2. I’ve heard that later in year prices drop a bit due to 2021 dues coming up. Does it make sense to wait it out until around oct/nov for a resale contract? I’m planning to get 100 direct before oct 1...and want to add 150 resale.

What you see listed for pricing is negotiable. Offer up a price on one of the listings you feel your comfortable with lowball if you want too the worst they will say is NO.

When I grew up NO was my parents favorite word so I am mute to the word now

 

[CastAStone]

i would love to pick up my first contact (150ish thinking AKL) oct or dec use year with banked points. I keep hesitating after reading posts on here because 1. It seems like people here are getting better prices than I see listed. 2. I’ve heard that later in year prices drop a bit due to 2021 dues coming up. Does it make sense to wait it out until around oct/nov for a resale contract? I’m planning to get 100 direct before oct 1...and want to add 150 resale.

I think prices will, in general, fall over the next 6-9 months months as an increase in white collar job losses solidifies and people lose government backstops, and as people (fingers crossed) start using vacation money for vacations again.

Will they fall a little or fall a lot? I don’t know.

Will it impact all resorts equally? I don’t think it will.
I think SSR, Poly, and CCV will fall the most; SSR because it’s the “affordable” one that people who were stretching themselves were most likely to buy resale; Poly and CCV because they’re the ones most likely to still have direct sales loans against them - in other words, more than just dues are owed.

Wait if you can afford to from a “when do you plan to use it” standpoint - you can usually find something at AKV at 6 months out or so.

If not, Bid what you want to pay, but I’d suggest not sweating the last few bucks if you can afford not to. Animal Kingdom Villas is certainly the most expensive it’s ever been but it’s also still one of the best “deals” in the DVC universe when compared to renting or paying cash for the same resort.

 

[Prince John Robin Hood]

I believe that a lot more layoffs are coming unfortunately. Larger companies will be looking to cut costs and some small businesses will find they just can't survive. Hopefully there is a lot of progress with vaccines and treatments over the next 6 months. If there isn't we could be looking at another recession.

I worked for one of the largest Subprime lenders in the U.S. when things went bad in 2007 but quickly found a new job. I was lucky as unemployment then rose and new jobs were hard to come by.
We are only 5 months into feeling the effects of Covid and unemployment during the Great Recession peaked around late 2009, well after the subprime meltdown. Things will likely get worse with the economy before they get better.

 

[ldo]

i would love to pick up my first contact (150ish thinking AKL) oct or dec use year with banked points. I keep hesitating after reading posts on here because 1. It seems like people here are getting better prices than I see listed. 2. I’ve heard that later in year prices drop a bit due to 2021 dues coming up. Does it make sense to wait it out until around oct/nov for a resale contract? I’m planning to get 100 direct before oct 1...and want to add 150 resale.

I'd wait for Oct and start looking for AKV with banked points, or "no fees for 2020" contract, which is then essentially free current points. My broker said that in Oct people start to tend of offer "no 2020 fee" as part of the sale. That essentially knocks off $8/point for AKV if all 2020 points are available.
Again, maybe people are suddenly getting higher for AKV in the past 3 weeks, but I got no full price offers after a week listed at $108 for 160 AKV (nonstripped) at a major broker. It'll be interesting to see what ROFR submitted in Aug. look like, as those are actual sales prices.

 

[Mattknite]

I think prices will, in general, fall over the next 6-9 months months as an increase in white collar job losses solidifies and people lose government backstops, and as people (fingers crossed) start using vacation money for vacations again.

Will they fall a little or fall a lot? I don’t know.

Will it impact all resorts equally? I don’t think it will.
I think SSR, Poly, and CCV will fall the most; SSR because it’s the “affordable” one that people who were stretching themselves were most likely to buy resale; Poly and CCV because they’re the ones most likely to still have direct sales loans against them - in other words, more than just dues are owed.

Wait if you can afford to from a “when do you plan to use it” standpoint - you can usually find something at AKV at 6 months out or so.

If not, Bid what you want to pay, but I’d suggest not sweating the last few bucks if you can afford not to. Animal Kingdom Villas is certainly the most expensive it’s ever been but it’s also still one of the best “deals” in the DVC universe when compared to renting or paying cash for the same resort.

maybe I should of waited to buy.

 

[Kylie_1504]

I received $8k just for flight refunds. Then the rental income for points I was going to use and park tickets, Insurance’s..

Taking an assumption that your Australian, can I ask as a fellow Aussie what is the best way to pay for a resale contract?
We too have used our holiday money from this year to jump into the DVC world.

We have just signed contracts and paid the $1000 deposit on the credit card but not sure what to do with the final payment and the best way to do it in terms of getting a better exchange rates.
Any words of wisdom?

 

[Aussie RJ]

Taking an assumption that your Australian, can I ask as a fellow Aussie what is the best way to pay for a resale contract?
We too have used our holiday money from this year to jump into the DVC world.

We have just signed contracts and paid the $1000 deposit on the credit card but not sure what to do with the final payment and the best way to do it in terms of getting a better exchange rates.
Any words of wisdom?

We normally just transfer the funds directly from our bank account. I was looking at transferwise this time around to lower the fees but our closing has come in today so I think I’ll just transfer directly again.

 

[bookwormde]

8/16 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 100% of average

For the week of 8/10 to 8/16 newly posted resale contracts at about 180% of average

 

[Kylie_1504]

We normally just transfer the funds directly from our bank account. I was looking at transferwise this time around to lower the fees but our closing has come in today so I think I’ll just transfer directly again.

Congratulations on passing!!!!
I just checked out transferwise and it’s $987aud cheaper so I’ll definitely check it out. Thank you so much.

Fingers crossed for travel for 2021.

 

[TinkB278]

I think everyone was just bored at home during the lockdowns and decided to go shopping for future vacations, which kept demand high. As the Covid situation gets more serious, I don’t think sales demand will remain strong. I’m not optimistic about the economy or the Covid situation. I hope I’m wrong on both counts!

I agree with you. I was reading yesterday that COVID could be an issue through 2021, possibly through 2024 and then also that it won’t ever go away. I’ve been wanting to buy DVC but am really struggling to make a move with so much Covid uncertainty. If moving forward we are living life with Covid outbreaks regularly I’m just not sure how safe of an investment DVC will be. Others must not be as concerned as I am about how our world will be moving forward given the crazy fast DVC sales that have been going on this summer. I wish I could be as confident as everyone else.

 

[Spark65]

I agree with you. I was reading yesterday that COVID could be an issue through 2021, possibly through 2024 and then also that it won’t ever go away. I’ve been wanting to buy DVC but am really struggling to make a move with so much Covid uncertainty. If moving forward we are living life with Covid outbreaks regularly I’m just not sure how safe of an investment DVC will be. Others must not be as concerned as I am about how our world will be moving forward given the crazy fast DVC sales that have been going on this summer. I wish I could be as confident as everyone else.

Don't let Covid ruin your life if it's here to say like the regular flu the world is going to have to move on. Don't let the naysayers stop you from living.

 

[meanwoodwhite]

I'm not so sure about this. For starters, millennials (Gen Y) are currently 26-40. These folks are actively buying timeshares right now. A Consumer Reports article from 2016 quotes:


Those folks are almost certainly web-search-literate; the use of the word "google" as a verb appeared in popular culture as early as 2002. Likewise, there are already plenty of timeshares that have little or no resale value, have similarly cosmetic differences between resale and retail, yet still sell ownerships at full-freight. Wyndham is a good example, but there are others. So, the information is there, and the differences are stark and usually very clear: a secondary-market purchase is just a better deal. So, why do people still buy from developers? My guess: people who buy timeshares do not want to know that they spent more than they could have. If someone doesn't want to know something, it doesn't matter what the facts are. That sounds hard to believe, but bear with me.

Think about how the business works. Timeshares are a product that is sold, not bought. Very few people go on vacation with a plan to buy a timeshare---DISboards company excepted, of course. . Instead, a family is on vacation having the time of their lives. They take a tour, where they are told that they can bottle this magical feeling they have forever, "vacationing for decades to come at the cost of a handful of trips like today's." This sounds like a grand idea---and, really, it is! But it is also just a little bit aspirational: it means taking more vacations, more often, in a little more luxury than they are used to. And this possibility is presented to them in a way that has payments that seem affordable for the next few years. So they buy.

Now, you have a new buyer who feels really good about the decision they just made. Maybe they have kids who are in grade school, and they are imagining taking them on vacation every year in a way that they never have before. Maybe their kids are older and they are thinking about grandchildren down the pike. Maybe they are about to become empty nesters and imaging all the travel they've put off while they've been raising a family. Suddenly there is an easy way to do whatever it is that they are thinking about.

That person is probably not going to spend the next several days trying to come up with reasons why this good decision they just made was a bad idea. And, once that period passes, the timeshare is irrevocably theirs. Of course, some will, because it is a lot of money. Some of those will see the cosmetic differences between resale and retail and convince themselves that they were right all along. Some will rescind. But, few enough will rescind that the overall business model still works for the developer, and the world keeps spinning.

I was watching some British disney vloggers just before I made my purchase. They were mid 30's obviously pretty big disney fans so must be on a few forums. Yet they bought their 100pt Rivera contract direct on site. They went on about how they plan to use it for a two week stays at OKW every other year. Which is perfectly fine. Apart from the fact that you have just thrown about $10,000 down the toilet.

 

[sethschroeder]

Don't let Covid ruin your life if it's here to say like the regular flu the world is going to have to move on. Don't let the naysayers stop you from living.

Except if its coming back annually or with new outbreaks things will change. Now if the R0 tanks or the mortality rate tanks then things will possibly be more similar. Will there be mask requirements forever? No that is fear mongering by those trying to take a freedom stand regarding mask requirements by government/business.

What you could see is permanent changes like family specific rows in planes, redesign of ride vehicles for additional spacing, lowering of capacity, additional cleaning requirements (increases costs of upkeep).

I think owning DVC is actually a better bet since Disney could jack up hotel rates and reduce park entry allotment except for Hotel guests in the future if they actively take to limiting park attendance.