Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[Red Dog Run]

If the Grantee is Disney Vacation Development my assumption is that the contract was ROFR'd? Does anyone know?

Thank you. I was able to view several and find out the actual sale price. I'm waiting in ROFR, so at least I can check every day.

 

[Red Dog Run]

Just pulled all the listed contracts that have offer accepted or pending from DVC Resale.

312 Contract:
62 were 25-75 points
45 were 76-100 points
61 were 101-150 points
83 were 151-200 points
57 were 201-350 points
Rest were a 435, 471, 655, 700 point contract

35% of contracts were 100 points or less and with 20% being 75 points or less that is going to dramatically impact pricing in a more expensive manner.

No clue how quickly or when they remove contracts from their site? Maybe 30 days after closing?
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[CastAStone]

Thank you. I was able to view several and find out the actual sale price. I'm waiting in ROFR, so at least I can check every day.

I have since learned that some of these come from sheriffs auctions and similar. So there’s no guarantee that something with a grantee of Disney is a ROFR.

 

[bookwormde]

8/13 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 260% of average

 

[bookwormde]

8/14 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 220% of average

 

[Kickstart]

compared to last week

DVC resale 275 down 38

Fidelity 133 down 15

TSS 120 down 18

The daily average for new listings, for the last week, has been around 2x the average pre-covid (based on your posts)... Do these listings imply resale sales have been over 2x for same time period? Otherwise we should have seen these numbers go in the other direction, right?

 

[bookwormde]

The daily average for new listings, for the last week, has been around 2x the average pre-covid (based on your posts)... Do these listings imply resale sales have been over 2x for same time period? Otherwise we should have seen these numbers go in the other direction, right?

Yes, resales have been quite strong. though I do not have a direct baseline to compare to. While prices and more of a buyers market is part of it, direct sales being 0 to 20% of usual may be a factor also.

 

[CastAStone]

Yes, resales have been quite strong. though I do not have a direct baseline to compare to. While prices and more of a buyers market is part of it, direct sales being 0 to 20% of usual may be a factor also.

Isn’t summer peak season for DVC resales most years??

 

[bookwormde]

Isn’t summer peak season for DVC resales most years??

I have not seen a big enough variation for me to pick up, but that may have been my methodology, it is certainly possible

 

[huskerfanatic7]

i am a bit suprised the resale prices haven't gone down more since the start of the pandemic

 

[Kickstart]

I'm starting to wonder if July wasn't an outlier, and that the resale bottom for the year was in May.

I apologize if someone posted this and I missed it but DVCRM posted their July average prices and they are up significantly at many resorts. As has been noted in this thread and the lowball thread repeatedly, AKV in particular has seen a huge increase in price in 2 months for no real reason at all.
https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-july-2020/

View attachment 516220

The next few months will be telling.

 

[EM Lawrence]

i am a bit suprised the resale prices haven't gone down more since the start of the pandemic

I think everyone was just bored at home during the lockdowns and decided to go shopping for future vacations, which kept demand high. As the Covid situation gets more serious, I don’t think sales demand will remain strong. I’m not optimistic about the economy or the Covid situation. I hope I’m wrong on both counts!

 

[CastAStone]

i am a bit suprised the resale prices haven't gone down more since the start of the pandemic

Most of the predictions around here were that the prices wouldn’t seriously drop until end of year when dues come due for 2021.

 

[Kickstart]

I think everyone was just bored at home during the lockdowns and decided to go shopping for future vacations, which kept demand high. As the Covid situation gets more serious, I don’t think sales demand will remain strong. I’m not optimistic about the economy or the Covid situation. I hope I’m wrong on both counts!

I think there's some truth to this.

I also think this "recession" has been very asymmetrical. With many upper middle class families, with dual incomes and fortunate enough to have non-retirement money in the stock market (which is doing great right now) finding themselves with some extra free cash flow (having cut back on dining-out and having canceled their summer vacations)... feeling "covid cabin fever" and looking ahead to next summer.

I also don't think this demand will remain strong... but I also didn't think June/July would be so strong, or that Disney would start ROFR back up so soon (which tells me direct demand is doing better than expected).

If a vaccine comes out this fall, and if they make enough of it, and if enough people are willing to get it (lots of if's there, I know).. we may find the economy won't be in as bad of shape as we thought it would be - which would be great! But not so great for those betting against the market (or the DVC market).

 

[Royal Consort]

I think everyone was just bored at home during the lockdowns and decided to go shopping for future vacations, which kept demand high.

Never been a better time for me to buy. Lost 3 vactions already due to lockdown and really nothing to spend money on stuck at home. This gave me the spare income to put towards DVC which would have gone towards the vacations this year.

 

[Aussie RJ]

Never been a better time for me to buy. Lost 3 vactions already due to lockdown and really nothing to spend money on stuck at home. This gave me the spare income to put towards DVC which would have gone towards the vacations this year.

Same, canceled vacation funds diverted into new contracts. I assume this would be the case for much of the current demand.

 

[Dismrk155]

My funds went to 4 new tires on the car, new furnace and while house A/C and a stand by generator for the house. Next year's none trips will look onto real property in Florida instead of owning air.

 

[CastAStone]

Same, canceled vacation funds diverted into new contracts. I assume this would be the case for much of the current demand.

It’s a fair point. Our Disneyland/Hawaii vacation was budgeted at $8000 and it’s cancellation is part of why we have the money to buy.

 

[Aussie RJ]

It’s a fair point. Our Disneyland/Hawaii vacation was budgeted at $8000 and it’s cancellation is part of why we have the money to buy.

I received $8k just for flight refunds. Then the rental income for points I was going to use and park tickets, Insurance’s..

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

i am a bit suprised the resale prices haven't gone down more since the start of the pandemic

Any time people think there is going to be a discount the demand increases substantially. Think about stores that go out of business and sell 1/2 the store almost instantly at prices that are no better than a typical weekly sale.

It's often cited that DVC prices during the 2008 recession didn't bottom until a couple years after the stock market. I think the same would have to be true in this case as you have to see demand decrease. We have a 100 page thread here tracking prices so obviously there is still demand.

Will it ever happen? Hard to say. This recession has disproportionately affected retail/service employees who are likely not in the economic class that frequent DVC. The only case I could see for a mass DVC sell off is if masks and travel restrictions persist for a long period and people start to see points expiring worthless.