Watch Out HH, TS Bonnie 70% Chance of Forming

[com_op_2000]

Checkout this article:
http://www.clickorlando.com/weather/tropical-system-may-brew-off-florida
A low pressure area east of Fla has a 70% chance of becoming TS Bonnie within 5 days. Track is to the NW towards GA/SC/NC.

 

[com_op_2000]

From the NHC:
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
825 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A low pressure area centered between Bermuda and the Bahamas is
gradually becoming better defined while shower activity is
increasing. Environmental conditions are expected to become more
conducive for tropical or subtropical cyclone formation on Friday
while the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward toward
the southeastern United States coast. With the Memorial Day weekend
approaching, all interests along the southeast coast from Georgia
through North Carolina should monitor the progress of this low. An
Air Force reconnaissance plane will be scheduled to investigate
this low on Friday. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on
this disturbance will be issued by 3 PM EDT today. For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

 

[com_op_2000]

Update from NHC:
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
745 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower activity associated with the low pressure area located
between Bermuda and the Bahamas continues to show signs of
organization, and the circulation of the low has become a little
better defined overnight. Environmental conditions are generally
conducive for a tropical or subtropical cyclone to form later today
or Saturday while this system moves west-northwestward to
northwestward toward the southeastern United States coast. All
interests along the southeast coast from Georgia through North
Carolina should monitor the progress of this low. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
low this afternoon. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on
this disturbance will be issued by 3 PM EDT this afternoon. For
additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

 

[ScubaCat]

I wonder if they'd let you cancel or reschedule based on the hurricane policy. The policy states June 1 thru November 30. Oh, so close...

https://disneyvacationclub.disney.go.com/faq/pre-arrival-checklist/hurricane-policy/

 

[JimMIA]

I wonder if they'd let you cancel or reschedule based on the hurricane policy. The policy states June 1 thru November 30. Oh, so close...

https://disneyvacationclub.disney.go.com/faq/pre-arrival-checklist/hurricane-policy/

Well, the policy says June 1 - November 30, which is the official hurricane season. More importantly, it also says Hurricane (not Tropical Storm) Warnings -- and this system will not get anywhere near Hurricane Warnings in all probability.

That said, the policy does have latitude for case-by-case consideration. I think the history is that DVC has tried more to use the policy to help people within reasonable limits than to hold people's feet to the fire.

I don't think this system is going to be a big problem, but if a storm does cause major disruption I think DVC will do the right thing.