Atlantis Closer To Happening

[Paul Stupin]

Looks like new developers have bought both undeveloped parcels at Ko Olina, and “plan to move forward with long delayed plans to develop a $2 billion Atlantis Resort on one of the properties.”

“The company is also looking at other hotel and resort brands such as Regent, Mandarin Oriental, St. Regis, Waldorf Astoria and Fairmont for a 17.3-acre parcel between the Beach Villas and Marriott’s Ko Olina Beach Club.”

https://www.bizjournals.com/pacific...-investors-ko-olina-land-china-oceanwide.html

 

[Paul Stupin]

Development is supposed to take about 5 years. Of course, who knows if it will actually come to fruition, since there have been similar announcements over the years that have gone nowhere.

I have mixed thoughts about this. On one hand, never ending construction next door sounds unpleasant, but the final product will certainly add more shopping and dining, and the lagoon servicing the potential resort will not be the one shared by Aulani and The Four Seasons. I’d also bet Disney will start enforcing wristbands by the pool.

 

[OKW Lover]

Can't get excited about this news release. There has been talk about development of that parcel for at least 10 years now by different organizations.

 

[Paul Stupin]

Can't get excited about this news release. There has been talk about development of that parcel for at least 10 years now by different organizations.

Yeah, agreed…I expressed the exact same sentiment. And not sure I’d get excited if construction was a certainty anyway. All I’m saying is that new developers are involved, it made headlines in Pacific Business News, and there seems to be a new push to get the resort built. True, we’ve heard this all before, but sooner or later something is bound to happen.

Will be interesting to see if new renderings are released in the next year or two. The originals from several years ago were interesting but over the top and no doubt expensive, so I’d bet that whatever ultimately gets built will still have some pizzazz, but be a tad more conventional.

 

[peder]

I think the most likely thing is that the previous owners of the parcels needed to sell to cover other real estate losses in China. And the new owner will hold the land for several years until we see a rebound in the real estate market, at which point they will sell it to the next developer, who will be the one that finally makes progress on this lot.

 

[Paul Stupin]

I think the most likely thing is that the previous owners of the parcels needed to sell to cover other real estate losses in China. And the new owner will hold the land for several years until we see a rebound in the real estate market, at which point they will sell it to the next developer, who will be the one that finally makes progress on this lot.

From what I’ve read, these new owners are going to actually try to get the necessary financing. But it’s not going to be easy to come up with 2 billion dollars.

 

[peder]

From what I’ve read, these new owners are going to actually try to get the necessary financing.

As they should. I'm not a project-finance guru, but the mere act of breaking ground can significantly increase the value of the project. So they have a strong financial incentive to get the project started, even if they intend to later decrease their ownership % or even sell the project entirely.

But they do still need to get the timing right. Purchasing these lots in a liquidation sale during a Chinese recession might not be the ideal time to break ground. And the news articles on this project make it sound like the project will come under new scrutiny over its design and how it blends or doesn't blend into the area, so that might delay things a while.

 

[Paul Stupin]

As they should. I'm not a project-finance guru, but the mere act of breaking ground can significantly increase the value of the project. So they have a strong financial incentive to get the project started, even if they intend to later decrease their ownership % or even sell the project entirely.

But they do still need to get the timing right. Purchasing these lots in a liquidation sale during a Chinese recession might not be the ideal time to break ground. And the news articles on this project make it sound like the project will come under new scrutiny over its design and how it blends or doesn't blend into the area, so that might delay things a while.

Yes, I definitely think the developers will have some work to do. Those original renderings, though futuristic and eye catching, have zero connection to local architectural styles or culture, which might diminish chances for project approval. At one point an on site casino was discussed, which I’m assuming would be off the table now. And locals will demand better parking for beach access, which is pretty woeful for every lagoon.

But with the yen to dollar pretty weak and Japanese tourism down, reduced visitor numbers projected from LA due to the fires, and Hawaii tourism still in a bit of a post COVID slump, $2 billion dollars isn’t going to be easy, if even possible, to raise.

 

[Unclelude]

We are checking out of EWA 981 today... ... Atlantis IMO will make these gem Island garden views 'worse'... Maybe still get a sliver of water, but currently have almost full view of lagoon 2 even from 9th floor!

There are a bunch of local articles on the land sale too... One stated 2 projects ( Atlantis and another) were gaining momentum. Locals pissed about parking...

Have fun DVC 'Ohana!!

PS Most probably know this, but respect the ocean man...The surf in winter is for real... Someone drowned a couple days ago in koolina ... 20 foot waves hitting the rocks is cool to see from a distance - ding dongs go out by the rocks to fish or get Instagram shots ..

 

[peder]

We are checking out of EWA 981 today... ... Atlantis IMO will make these gem Island garden views 'worse'... Maybe still get a sliver of water, but currently have almost full view of lagoon 2 even from 9th floor!

There are a bunch of local articles on the land sale too... One stated 2 projects ( Atlantis and another) were gaining momentum. Locals pissed about parking...

Definitely a lot of media coverage about this, but something still seems a bit off about it. I would have guessed they'd have updated renderings unless they're planning on moving forward with the plan exactly as it was years ago? Or more likely, they're still a bit early on in their design process, even if they're going to borrow heavily from the original design.

PS Most probably know this, but respect the ocean man...The surf in winter is for real... Someone drowned a couple days ago in koolina ... 20 foot waves hitting the rocks is cool to see from a distance - ding dongs go out by the rocks to fish or get Instagram shots ..

I think it's hard for people to understand how dangerous it is. When 99.9% of the waves are the same height it lulls people into a false sense of security until along comes a much larger wave that hits the rocks just right and suddenly you feel the force of the wave.

 

[OKW Lover]

I think a lot of people want to see this happen. Specifically the news people. Not sure about the rest of us. At this point the project is no further along than it has been for the past 5 years.