VGF cheaper than RIV Direct

[Wakey]

My prediction is by June we will see quite a worldwide recession, particularly if the Ukranian war is not over by then, with continued inflationary pressures. Disney will not have the visitors, people will not be buying DVC.
Already I can see bookings from the UK to US will be massively down next year, not aided by the exchange rate either.
If this happens will they ever drop the price?

 

[Matty B13]

I don't think they will drop prices, but I don't think we will see the increases that we have seen over the past 5 years. Might have a "Special Deal" every once in awhile, but that won't happen until they see significant declines in attendance & sales (20-30% decline). As Cheapek says he will just cut costs...... meaning cutting staff and experiences.

 

[CarolMN]

They won't drop prices. If they want to increase sales, they will offer incentives.

 

[Nursemanit]

So, do we know the October direct sales numbers?

https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program/fin...rand-floridian-sales-dip-down-in-october-2022

 

[havoc315]

https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program/fin...rand-floridian-sales-dip-down-in-october-2022

Honestly, the numbers are a b it shocking, explaining the incentive change. 86,000 vs 47,000 -- VFG sales 45% lower than RIV.

I wonder how much of a factor it is that you can get "double" points with RIV and not VGF... and that will soon change.
I can't imagine the current price difference alone is enough to make RIV nearly twice as popular as VGF...
Now, price aside, I prefer RIV over VGF. And I'm sure I'm not alone.... and maybe a majority of buyers actually do like RIV more than VGF... but again, I can't imagine that RIV would be nearly twice as popular as VGF...

So it's probably a lot of factors at play. I do wonder how many people were persuaded by double points at RIV, an advantage that dries up soon.

 

[Nursemanit]

Honestly, the numbers are a b it shocking, explaining the incentive change. 86,000 vs 47,000 -- VFG sales 45% lower than RIV.

I wonder how much of a factor it is that you can get "double" points with RIV and not VGF... and that will soon change.
I can't imagine the current price difference alone is enough to make RIV nearly twice as popular as VGF...
Now, price aside, I prefer RIV over VGF. And I'm sure I'm not alone.... and maybe a majority of buyers actually do like RIV more than VGF... but again, I can't imagine that RIV would be nearly twice as popular as VGF...

So it's probably a lot of factors at play. I do wonder how many people were persuaded by double points at RIV, an advantage that dries up soon.

Double points and Epcot vs MK are the top 2 reasons

Also VGF has the best Christmas display so they may want a good discount to offer while they have thousands of guests visiting,

 

[BeachClub2014]

Those pesky resale restrictions keep dragging down sales at Riviera.

 

[Nursemanit]

Those pesky resale restrictions keep dragging down sales at Riviera.

Sales are still down from what they sold pre pandemic

 

[Sandisw]

Honestly, the numbers are a b it shocking, explaining the incentive change. 86,000 vs 47,000 -- VFG sales 45% lower than RIV.

I wonder how much of a factor it is that you can get "double" points with RIV and not VGF... and that will soon change.
I can't imagine the current price difference alone is enough to make RIV nearly twice as popular as VGF...
Now, price aside, I prefer RIV over VGF. And I'm sure I'm not alone.... and maybe a majority of buyers actually do like RIV more than VGF... but again, I can't imagine that RIV would be nearly twice as popular as VGF...

So it's probably a lot of factors at play. I do wonder how many people were persuaded by double points at RIV, an advantage that dries up soon.

The only month getting 2021 points in October was a Dec UY, so I am not sure we can consider that as a reason without knowing that specific piece of data.

Sales went down again for VGF but slightly up for RIV. I think it’s now clear that VGF has not done well and that pricing needed to change…and the incentives reflect that fact.

I do think we have enough data to support that restrictions are simply not a priority for direct buyers.

 

[BeachClub2014]

Sales are still down from what they sold pre pandemic

Uh huh. And couldn't possibly be for any other reason, right?

 

[Sandisw]

Sales are still down from what they sold pre pandemic

True, but nothing supports that is down to the restrictions. VGF doesn’t have them and they are going in the wrong direction…

Its not like the numbers are even similar between the two. I think the point is that when given the choice of two resorts, buyers are overwhelmingly choosing a resort with resale restrictions because it was less expensive and had a longer contract.

We shall see what happens in the next two months now that VGF is less expensive.

 

[havoc315]

True, but nothing supports that is down to the restrictions. VGF doesn’t have them and they are going in the wrong direction…

Its not like the numbers are even similar between the two. I think the point is that when given the choice of two resorts, buyers are overwhelmingly choosing a resort with resale restrictions because it was less expensive and had a longer contract.

We shall see what happens in the next two months now that VGF is less expensive.

Sales are down everywhere compared to pre-pandemic. And Riviera sales would be expected to decline over time, as happens with any new resort. So the evidence firmly shows that resale restrictions are not a major deterrent. It's possible that sales would be even higher without restrictions -- we don't know. But as I've always said, I can't imagine too many direct buyers are thinking to themselves, "hmmm... I might want to re-sell this in 10-30 years, and the value might be 5% lower than other resorts because of those restrictions... so gosh darn, I better cross it off my list."

Honestly, the degree of difference between VGF and RIV sales is just surprising. And I say this as someone who prefers Riviera.

I don't know.. I'm just speculating, but I could see a lot of couples/families taking the tours of both Riviera and GFV.... And GFV seeming a bit stuffy, not very "new" feeling, and underwhelmed by "Resort Studios"... and seeing Riviera, including the skyliner, as just feeling newer, brighter.

 

[Nursemanit]

True, but nothing supports that is down to the restrictions. VGF doesn’t have them and they are going in the wrong direction…

Its not like the numbers are even similar between the two. I think the point is that when given the choice of two resorts, buyers are overwhelmingly choosing a resort with resale restrictions because it was less expensive and had a longer contract.

We shall see what happens in the next two months now that VGF is less expensive.

No data to support contract length makes any difference.

I still say it’s 80% Epcot location 10% price 10% “other”. With DHS and Epcot ticket sales rising and the new rides people want to be near the parks they love the most.

 

[BeachClub2014]

No data to support contract length makes any difference.

I still say it’s 80% Epcot location 10% price 10% “other”. With DHS and Epcot ticket sales rising and the new rides people want to be near the parks they love the most.

True.

I tend to think there is a myriad of reasons why people choose one resort over another. Here's a link to a poll I started way back when, which is clearly unscientific and not really representative, but it does provide a view into the mindset of some buyers.

https://www.disboards.com/threads/p...ng-are-your-top-three-considerations.3876367/

 

[Sandisw]

No data to support contract length makes any difference.

I still say it’s 80% Epcot location 10% price 10% “other”. With DHS and Epcot ticket sales rising and the new rides people want to be near the parks they love the most.

I agree we have not concrete data as to reasons why peoole have chosen RIV almost 2:1 and I do agree that location is most likely a big factor.

What we do know though is that restrictions are not high enough on the list for buyers to decide to choose an MK resort, with a higher price and less years.

So, for all those who believe that the restrictions for resale are deal breaker and direct buyers will not buy resorts with them, the data simply does not support that
An overwhelming number of DVC direct buyer for three months have now bought RIV, in-spite of those restrictions…so much so that DVD is now offering their “flagship resort” for less.

That’s a big deal…at least IMO.

 

[Ruttangel]

I agree we have not concrete data as to reasons why peoole have chosen RIV almost 2:1 and I do agree that location is most likely a big factor.

It can't be location as for a new family visiting WDW MK is by far and away the most important and most visited park.
I think it is 2 factors, 1 is the price differential and the other is I believe guides have given RIV more of a harder sales push than VGF.
Both those factors switched now it seems so by January I would expect that to play out in the sales numbers moving to VGF

 

[tjkraz]

Whatever the reasons for Riviera's success vs VGF, the pre-opening price poll had 79% of respondents believing VGF would be priced higher than Riviera.

https://www.disboards.com/threads/the-vgf-2-pricing-thread.3838921/

As it turns out, no VGF could not succeed at higher prices than Riviera.

 

[Sandisw]

It can't be location as for a new family visiting WDW MK is by far and away the most important and most visited park.
I think it is 2 factors, 1 is the price differential and the other is I believe guides have given RIV more of a harder sales push than VGF.
Both those factors switched now it seems so by January I would expect that to play out in the sales numbers moving to VGF

I still think location is a big factor in peoples choices. I also think that VGF being studio heavy now is a plus for getting in at 7 months so the home resort advantage isn’t as important.

However the data still shows that for the past three months being unrestricted has not helped VGF sales in anyway and that in order to sell it even close to the levels that RIV has sold, they have to price it lower than RIV,

I suspect that sales will go up now for VGF but it will be interesting to see how much. Will we see it be similar or will we see the situation flip?

Now, if Poly tower ends up with restrictions, I have no doubt you will see it sell at better than RIV because of it being near MK.

 

[tjkraz]

It can't be location as for a new family visiting WDW MK is by far and away the most important and most visited park.

There's really no point in putting everyone in the same "box". There are eleven Deluxe + DVC resorts at WDW. Only 3 of them are on the monorail line. People still stay at the other 8. Why? 'Cause reasons.

Buyers are of all different ages, family make-ups, tastes, expectations, budgets, etc. Even if you want to float an opinion as to how many people value the MK as a destination enough to drive their decision, it's just a wild guess.

 

[havoc315]

Now, if Poly tower ends up with restrictions, I have no doubt you will see it sell at better than RIV because of it being near MK.

How well Poly sells will depend largely on unknowns: The quality of the new tower itself, pricing.

A possible problem for GFV is the lack of any "new" feeling. It's a conversion of an older building within an older resort.

If the Poly tower is gorgeous and people love it, it could potentially really help its sales. One can imagine it being sleek, modern, with a beautiful infinity pool, great dining and lounge options... and a selling point of being the best of the new with the best of traditional Disney (still sharing property with traditional Poly).
On the other hand, if buyers hate the tower.....

It may easily be a similar situation as Riviera -- Where there is internet/Disney-fan hate -- "It looks like a Marriott, it doesn't feel very Disney..." But actual new buyers mostly love it.