VGF 2 points usage question

[DougUSMC]

I'll be the VGF1 owner in the new building, so I guess we break even? Historic DVC demand shows there are a lot more of me than you, and that's why studios are always the first booked at all the resorts, well, with a couple outliers, like the OKW 3BR.

The question is whether you are confident enough in 47 rooms being enough availability to risk five figures on it.

Yeah, I dig it, and thanks for helping me to realize that was something we had to consider.

Here's my thought process, please let me know where I have break downs in logic:
We already have 2 homes that we can do a 1 wk, 2BR on alternating years. I'm looking to add VGF2 points to either add a couple of days to the beginning/end of those stays OR for a quick 2-4 day mid year. I've been thinking about adding 150ish (maybe up to 200) points at VGF2 to make that happen. The only risk I see now is if we get 150 points and try to get 2 studios? Maybe we'll be always short points?

Anything you can help us think through would be appreciated!

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Nobody knows how this room mix will work out.

I can't wait for the inevitable first year when the points chart for Resort Studios and Deluxe Studios diverge. I'm sure the membership will respond reasonably.

 

[RoseGold]

We already have 2 homes that we can do a 1 wk, 2BR on alternating years. I'm looking to add VGF2 points to either add a couple of days to the beginning/end of those stays OR for a quick 2-4 day mid year. I've been thinking about adding 150ish (maybe up to 200) points at VGF2 to make that happen. The only risk I see now is if we get 150 points and try to get 2 studios? Maybe we'll be always short points?

If you have to have a 2BR, 47 rooms isn't many. If you can work with a few studios (cheaper!), you'll have hundreds more coming.

It's easy to calculate how many points you need, but just because you have the points, doesn't mean you can book it. It might be hard to book a 2BR. It might still be hard to get a studio. We just don't know. VGF has about 2.5M points now, and it's adding 1.8M in all studios.

 

[bobbiwoz]

I keep saying this, but am repeatedly met with every kind of argument claiming I'm wrong.

Everyone can have an opinion.
Interestingly, there’s a night next January where I have a VGF (1) studio for three friends before a cruise we are all doing. I’ll be with my DH elsewhere for that night. My friends actually WANT a resort studio for the night. They don’t care about kitchenette, and want to see the “new.” Plus, the two Queen beds win them over. So, if I can get it, that may the only time I expect to willingly book a resort studio with my original VGF points!

 

[tidefan]

VGF1 has 47 2BR lockoffs and 47 2BR dedicated. VGF2 will add a ton of studios, and we don't know what that new room mix will do the demand for larger rooms. Some people here think everyone will still demand the microwaves of VGF1 studios, which would block the lockoffs. And some people think the new buyers will all want 1BR, which would also impact 2BR inventory.

I'll be in the shiny new wing in two connecting studios, which was impossible in the VGF1 room mix.

And here is the rub. We do NOT want to be in the old, refurbished wing, however, there are a few reasons why.

First is that we don't particularly care to walk in the rain (Poly has this issue as well). If it's raining, you are going to be walking in the rain at Big Pine Key. VGF1 has the covered walkway to the main building.
Second is that we always drive and the original VGF building is MUCH more convenient to parking than BPK. Also, the convenience to the grills (which we use) is better from the original building as well.
Third is that we prefer the Deluxe studio setups. I was hoping that the setups at VGF2 would be more like the Inn Rooms at Vero, which have the 2 queens and a kitchenette, but they are not. As an aside, that's one of the reasons we really like the BLT studios. IMHO, they have the best kitchenette setup of any WDW DVC.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

So, this is part of what has me, as an original VGF1 owner, worried. There will be much more competition to get the rooms at the original building. It leaves a bit of a bad taste in your mouth…

I keep saying this, but am repeatedly met with every kind of argument claiming I'm wrong.

It's not that you're wrong, it's that you're only factoring in one side of the equation.

Fact 1, which supports your argument: Some VGF2 buyers will want to stay in VGF1 rooms.

Fact 2, which counters your argument: Some VGF1 owners will want to stay in VGF2 rooms.

Until we see it play out in the wild, there's no way of knowing which of those two forces will be stronger. As it stands, it's equally likely to get easier to book VGF1 rooms as it is to get more difficult.

 

[tidefan]

It's not that you're wrong, it's that you're only factoring in one side of the equation.

Fact 1, which supports your argument: Some VGF2 buyers will want to stay in VGF1 rooms.

Fact 2, which counters your argument: Some VGF1 owners will want to stay in VGF2 rooms.

Until we see it play out in the wild, there's no way of knowing which of those two forces will be stronger. As it stands, it's equally likely to get easier to book VGF1 rooms as it is to get more difficult.

While I don't disagree that for sure we would have to see how this plays out, if DVC would have just made GFV2 it's own condo association, then there wouldn't be the possibility of VGF1 rooms being harder to book. However, I believe that DVC decided to do it this way so that they only had to sell 42 years of points vs. selling 50 years of points. Again, a way to increase pricing without "increasing pricing".

But, even though it may not work out that way, now there is a possibility that the original rooms will become more difficult to get, even at 11 months. (I don't think the new Villas will be difficult at 11 months).

 

[tidefan]

Just thought of another, bigger picture reason why I don't like this direction from DVC.

If DVC can just add units into existing condo associations (like they did here at VGF and prior to this at SSR with the Treehouses), then what is stopping them from say tearing down the Aruba section of CBR in a year or two to create mega-point "Mediterranean Villas" along the lake that they just roll into the existing Riviera association. It would create a ton of points and my guess would be that all those buying would be looking for the RIV studios...

Or... could they build a second tower at BLT in the other garden wing and just say, hey, we'll roll it into the existing association, but you new buyers only have 38 years...

Not exactly the same situation as what is going on at VGF, however, as one that wants the new building, I am disappointed that they are opening it up to new sales.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

While I don't disagree that for sure we would have to see how this plays out, if DVC would have just made GFV2 it's own condo association, then there wouldn't be the possibility of VGF1 rooms being harder to book. However, I believe that DVC decide to do it this way so that they only had to sell 42 years of points vs. selling 50 years of points. Again, a way to increase pricing without "increasing pricing".

Could be, but I don't think it's as sinister as that. I think 1) Disney (broadly defined) was having a hard time selling cash GF rooms, so they wanted to shrink that inventory, and 2) with COVID nuking Reflections, Disney needed something to sell to East Coasters once Riviera sells out.

(I don't think the new Villas will be difficult at 11 months).

We'll see, of course. I'm a bad test case because I don't really like the Grand in the first place, but I would never even consider staying at VGF1 because it's just not my cup of tea. But I absolutely love the Resort Studio concept, so, at 7 months, they're the only rooms at the Grand I'd consider.

I think you're underestimating the appeal that "two real beds" will have for a lot of people. Right now, the only options for that are Old Key West and (kind of) Saratoga.

Or... could they build a second tower at BLT in the other garden wing and just say, hey, we'll roll it into the existing association, but you new buyers only have 38 years...

They don't need to roll anything into existing associations if they wanted to do that. They could build brand new, new association, Disney's XYZ Villas, and have it expire in 2032 if they wanted to. There's no need for the "excuse" you're alluding to.

 

[tidefan]

Could be, but I don't think it's as sinister as that. I think 1) Disney (broadly defined) was having a hard time selling cash GF rooms, so they wanted to shrink that inventory, and 2) with COVID nuking Reflections, Disney needed something to sell to East Coasters once Riviera sells out.

I guess my response to that would be then why not create 2 different condo associations like they did for BRV and CCV?

We'll see, of course. I'm a bad test case because I don't really like the Grand in the first place, but I would never even consider staying at VGF1 because it's just not my cup of tea. But I absolutely love the Resort Studio concept, so, at 7 months, they're the only rooms at the Grand I'd consider.

I think you're underestimating the appeal that "two real beds" will have for a lot of people. Right now, the only options for that are Old Key West and (kind of) Saratoga.

If you are referring to the murphy beds with the queen mattress on them, I believe VGF1 is getting them in the refurb. I hope that you are right that more people will want the 2 true queens!

 

[RamblinWreck]

I guess I have to apologize now, we're likely to be one of those "new VGF2 families that take a 2BR".

I've never tracked VGF availability, how challenging is it to get a 2BR at 11months? We haven't had a problem (pre-COVID craziness) getting them at either CCV or DRR, they seem to be in much less demand than the lesser points rooms. Does that currently hold true for VGF?



I love BLT for Chef Mickey's but much prefer VGF for the vibe of the resort.
Interesting that you don't list the Poly, any reason?

The poly only has studios. That was just kind of a non-starter for us.

We aren't planning on staying in studios unless it's just the 2 of us traveling for some reason. But even if we were, I wouldn't like the idea of that being my only option unless I want to be hunting at the 7 month window.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

The poly only has studios. That was just kind of a non-starter for us.

We aren't planning on staying in studios unless it's just the 2 of us traveling for some reason. But even if we were, I wouldn't like the idea of that being my only option unless I want to be hunting at the 7 month window.

Is it beds you're after, or the kitchen? With the price premium on 1BRs, you can get 2 Poly studios for roughly the same points cost as a 1BR elsewhere on the monorail loop.

 

[RamblinWreck]

Is it beds you're after, or the kitchen? With the price premium on 1BRs, you can get 2 Poly studios for roughly the same points cost as a 1BR elsewhere on the monorail loop.

All else being more or less equal, I'll take the 1 BR with the kitchen 10 times out of 10.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I guess my response to that would be then why not create 2 different condo associations like they did for BRV and CCV?

Total speculation, but my guess is that this was simply easier from a legal/regulatory perspective. I don't think this was something they had in the works for years and years, it was a semi-rushed thing that they wanted to move on quickly.

I'm sure this wasn't part of their decision-making process, but it's also a huge win for resale owners who now have more inventory to try and get VGF at 7 months without having to dodge a restriction similar to Riviera.

 

[Her Dotness]

(I don't think the new Villas will be difficult at 11 months).

I'm not so confident about that for a few reasons once available points sell:

1) Some will prefer the "enhanced hotel room" they can get at BPK because they refuse to cook at WDW.

2) Whenever the dining plan returns, its availability could also increase BPK bookings somewhat, reason same as #1. Secondary reason how many restaurants the GF has, more than any other resort. Get 1900 PF and GV Tea Room open again, more reasons not to care you've no kitchenette in BPK.

3) We could be waaay underestimating how many would rather be closer to restaurants, pool, etc. than VGF1 is. The original villa building may suddenly seem rather inconveniently located.

4) More spacious rooms at BPK. The stated average is the mid-440s sq. ft. The VGF1 studio is 347 sq. ft. That could make the resort studios much more popular with people using ECVs or powerchairs.

 

[tidefan]

Total speculation, but my guess is that this was simply easier from a legal/regulatory perspective. I don't think this was something they had in the works for years and years, it was a semi-rushed thing that they wanted to move on quickly.

I'm sure this wasn't part of their decision-making process, but it's also a huge win for resale owners who now have more inventory to try and get VGF at 7 months without having to dodge a restriction similar to Riviera.

Fair enough here, however, I still think it sets a bad precedent...

I'm not so confident about that for a few reasons once available points sell:

1) Some will prefer the "enhanced hotel room" they can get at BPK because they refuse to cook at WDW.

2) Whenever the dining plan returns, its availability could also increase BPK bookings somewhat, reason same as #1. Secondary reason how many restaurants the GF has, more than any other resort. Get 1900 PF and GV Tea Room open again, more reasons not to care you've no kitchenette in BPK.

3) We could be waaay underestimating how many would rather be closer to restaurants, pool, etc. than VGF1 is. The original villa building may suddenly seem rather inconveniently located.

4) More spacious rooms at BPK. The stated average is the mid-440s sq. ft. The VGF1 studio is 347 sq. ft. That could make the resort studios much more popular with people using ECVs or powerchairs.

You could also counterpoint this with:

1) The points I made above (covered walkway, closer to parking, grills, sport court, spa, etc.)
2) The split bath setup I think is another thing that will be important to many
3) The dedicated check in at VGF1
4) The porte cochere at VGF1 (tying into Point #1 about things not getting wet)
5) Monorail Views! (OK, that one is just MY personal preference)

On a plus for VGF2, at least no one over there will get stuck with Room 1221 (the dreaded Porte Cochere view!)

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Some will prefer the "enhanced hotel room" they can get at BPK because they refuse to cook at WDW.

I would caveat this with "they refuse to cook in a WDW Deluxe Studio in particular." I'm happy to cook at WDW... when I'm in a 1BR, 2BR, or Ft. Wilderness Cabin. I have always found the kitchenettes in the Deluxe Studios (or AoA Family Suites) to be basically useless for what I'd want to cook.

 

[tidefan]

I would caveat this with "they refuse to cook in a WDW Deluxe Studio in particular." I'm happy to cook at WDW... when I'm in a 1BR, 2BR, or Ft. Wilderness Cabin. I have always found the kitchenettes in the Deluxe Studios (or AoA Family Suites) to be basically useless for what I'd want to cook.

I prefer to think of the studio kitchenettes more of a way to heat up all of those 'Ohana or Grand Floridian Cafe (Lobster Thermidor Burger anyone???) leftovers. It's my understanding that the new studios won't have a micowave.

Also, to add to your point, I can't even think of going to Aulani in less than a 1 or 2 Bedroom as we cook during the majority of our visit there (sure does save $$$ in Hawaii)...

 

[Her Dotness]

If you are referring to the murphy beds with the queen mattress on them, I believe VGF1 is getting them in the refurb. I hope that you are right that more people will want the 2 true queens!

Yes, VGF1 did get the Murphy-over-sofa to replace the queen sofa beds.

Vloggers and I agree that a Murphy bed mattress isn't as comfortable as a regular one. They're more comfy than those yukky queen sofa beds but not as supportive as a regular mattress.

Esthetically, I'd much rather be in a room with 2 queens and a sofa. I think it's a pain to have to raise the Murphy to have daytime seating.

You could also counterpoint this with:

1) The points I made above (covered walkway, closer to parking, grills, sport court, spa, etc.)
2) The split bath setup I think is another thing that will be important to many
3) The dedicated check in at VGF1
4) The porte cochere at VGF1 (tying into Point #1 about things not getting wet)
5) Monorail Views! (OK, that one is just MY personal preference)

Closer to parking, I'll grant you. That could be a strength of VGF1, inadequate though that lot is when there's a wedding next door.

Split bath, same. Hadn't thought of that since we don't get it in the accessible DH needs.

The dedicated check-in? Well, maybe. But not if VGF2 guests can check in at the GF front desk. That could negate any check-in advantage VGF1 has, IMO.

Not getting wet, okay. We don't go during downpour season, but I agree that might be a factor for those who do.

Bottom line, I suspect spaciousness and not cooking are more important factors favoring VGF2, although parking inconvenience might offset those slightly. Maybe not if more with no car also don't cook. No telling how many VGFers don't drive and have Owner's Locker.

 

[Her Dotness]

I would caveat this with "they refuse to cook in a WDW Deluxe Studio in particular." I'm happy to cook at WDW... when I'm in a 1BR, 2BR, or Ft. Wilderness Cabin. I have always found the kitchenettes in the Deluxe Studios (or AoA Family Suites) to be basically useless for what I'd want to cook.

Nope, I think the new studios will be really popular with people who refuse to cook at all on vacation principle.

I heartily agree the Deluxe Studios are worthless for much more than nuking leftovers or nuke-a-box "cooking."