VGF 2 points usage question

[tidefan]

So, this is part of what has me, as an original VGF1 owner, worried. There will be much more competition to get the rooms at the original building. It leaves a bit of a bad taste in your mouth…

 

[bobbiwoz]

So, this is part of what has me, as an original VGF1 owner, worried. There will be much more competition to get the rooms at the original building. It leaves a bit of a bad taste in your mouth…

It does to me too.

 

[DonMacGregor]

So, this is part of what has me, as an original VGF1 owner, worried. There will be much more competition to get the rooms at the original building. It leaves a bit of a bad taste in your mouth…

I keep saying this, but am repeatedly met with every kind of argument claiming I'm wrong.

 

[Her Dotness]

The bulk of demand will hinge on how many current VGF owners and owners looking to add VGF points actually do buy more points, IMO. That's why I'm not so sure there'll be that much more demand for 1+brs. No way to know yet, obviously.

The reason why I think this is that the GF is simply not a popular resort like Poly, WL, CR, BC, or BWI. Over the years since 2010 (when I began haunting Disney forums), I've seen people clamoring for those Deluxe resorts and AKL and reporting satisfying experiences there--if they stay Deluxe at all. Which the vast majority don't.

Very few say they're dying to stay at the GF. Most say they feel out of place there; it's too "grandma or spinsterish," far too expensive or just "too snooty."

That's why I expect VGF2 points demand to come primarily from current VGF-loving owners, adding it to their home resorts collection or adding on points to "upstay" to the 1+brs.

Only some DVC newbies who like the GF and realize they can save a bundle with VGF will be that eager to buy in. And I'm betting there aren't many of the latter at all. There'll be some demand by those who actually prefer the "enhanced hotel room" that VGF2 will be and only later may "stay up" to VGF1. I can see DVC newbies being more in this category.

This thread of VGF devotees simply isn't representative of the general Disneygoer's attitude toward the GF:
Can't possibly afford it, dislikes it or both.

 

[nuhusky123]

The bulk of demand will hinge on how many current VGF owners and owners looking to add VGF points actually do buy more points, IMO. That's why I'm not so sure there'll be that much more demand for 1+brs. No way to know yet, obviously.

The reason why I think this is that the GF is simply not a popular resort like Poly, WL, CR, BC, or BWI. Over the years since 2010 (when I began haunting Disney forums), I've seen people clamoring for those Deluxe resorts and AKL and reporting satisfying experiences there--if they stay Deluxe at all. Which the vast majority don't.

Very few say they're dying to stay at the GF. Most say they feel out of place there; it's too "grandma or spinsterish," far too expensive or just "too snooty."

That's why I expect VGF2 points demand to come primarily from current VGF-loving owners, adding it to their home resorts collection or adding on points to "upstay" to the 1+brs.

Only some DVC newbies who like the GF and realize they can save a bundle with VGF will be that eager to buy in. And I'm betting there aren't many of the latter at all. There'll be some demand by those who actually prefer the "enhanced hotel room" that VGF2 will be and only later may "stay up" to VGF1. I can see DVC newbies being more in this category.

This thread of VGF devotees simply isn't representative of the general Disneygoer's attitude toward the GF:
Can't possibly afford it, dislikes it or both.

So you think existing vgf owners will spend upwards of $414000000? That’s a lot of zeros

pretty sure dvc disagrees and expects new non dvc members to make up the bulk of sales

 

[Her Dotness]

So you think existing vgf owners will spend upwards of $414000000? That’s a lot of zeros

Hardly. I said no such thing.

Note that I said "The bulk of demand will hinge on how many current VGF owners and owners looking to add VGF points actually do buy more points, IMO." The context was how much more competition there may be for VGF1 and specifically for 1+brs.

pretty sure dvc disagrees and expects new non dvc members to make up the bulk of sales

And then, I spent the remainder of my post detailing why I don't think there will be as much demand for VGF2 by new DVC members as those like yourself seem to think.

Not a lot of people like the place enough to lay out $200/pt. I can see it selling well for a month or two and then the thrill quickly evaporating.

 

[Sandisw]

The bulk of demand will hinge on how many current VGF owners and owners looking to add VGF points actually do buy more points, IMO. That's why I'm not so sure there'll be that much more demand for 1+brs. No way to know yet, obviously.

The reason why I think this is that the GF is simply not a popular resort like Poly, WL, CR, BC, or BWI. Over the years since 2010 (when I began haunting Disney forums), I've seen people clamoring for those Deluxe resorts and AKL and reporting satisfying experiences there--if they stay Deluxe at all. Which the vast majority don't.

Very few say they're dying to stay at the GF. Most say they feel out of place there; it's too "grandma or spinsterish," far too expensive or just "too snooty."

That's why I expect VGF2 points demand to come primarily from current VGF-loving owners, adding it to their home resorts collection or adding on points to "upstay" to the 1+brs.

Only some DVC newbies who like the GF and realize they can save a bundle with VGF will be that eager to buy in. And I'm betting there aren't many of the latter at all. There'll be some demand by those who actually prefer the "enhanced hotel room" that VGF2 will be and only later may "stay up" to VGF1. I can see DVC newbies being more in this category.

This thread of VGF devotees simply isn't representative of the general Disneygoer's attitude toward the GF:
Can't possibly afford it, dislikes it or both.

Once all points are sold..I predict it takes 2 years…then we will know for sure the impact.

Unlike Poly, VGF does have the 1 and 2 bedrooms and it’s impossible to say that almost 2 million points added with no need rooms won’t have an impact,

The question for me is if that impact is on owners or just non owners who try at 7 months like me.

Of course, I will be a VGF owner so I will be booking those 1 bedrooms every other year for my winter trips, and hope for 2 bedrooms on the off year in December now at 11 months vs trying at 7 with my SSR points.

Just can’t imagine it not impacting things in some way. In terms of who buys, I think you may see new buyers choosing to buy points at both resorts of RIV and VGF…vs one or the other if priced well.

VGF, the first time around, was popular and I see it being the same with new buyers If the price is right. I realize you don’t think it is as popular for a family choice but my time there has always been when it’s filled with families and kids.

 

[Her Dotness]

We go in the fall, November most trips. Perhaps that's why I don't see as many families with kids as at Poly or WL, for instance.

Been almost 20 years since I was at WDW in summer.

 

[DonMacGregor]

Of course, I will be a VGF owner so I will be booking those 1 bedrooms every other year for my winter trips, and hope for 2 bedrooms on the off year in December now at 11 months vs trying at 7 with my SSR points

No you won’t. You think you will, but you won’t. You are wrong.

VGF, the first time around, was popular and I see it being the same with new buyers If the price is right. I realize you don’t think it is as popular for a family choice but my time there has always been when it’s filled with families and kids.

Again, wrong. It is a very unpopular resort, and what family wants to stay within walking distance of the Magic Kingdom? Oh, and those weren’t kids, it was a convention of tiny adults. All summer long.

 

[Her Dotness]

It is a very unpopular resort, and what family wants to stay within walking distance of the Magic Kingdom?

ha ha

Oh, I don't doubt families with young kids would like to stay near the MK. My contention is that not that many can afford to, one major reason why there are so many Values. Another being that those are more colorful and obviously Disney-themed, appealing to kids.

I bet if we could survey parents and kids separately, we'd find the parents like the GF; the kids would rather stay somewhere more exciting.

 

[DonMacGregor]

ha ha

Oh, I don't doubt families with young kids would like to stay near the MK. My contention is that not that many can afford to, one major reason why there are so many Values. Another being that those are more colorful and obviously Disney-themed, appealing to kids.

I bet if we could survey parents and kids separately, we'd find the parents like the GF; the kids would rather stay somewhere more exciting.

I don’t know at this point if it is a “sunk cost” argument for you or not, but by your own admission you haven’t stayed at the resort during summer break in 20 years, and your trips align with the beginning of the school year, when the fewest number of families are visiting.

There are already numerous members in this thread and others who have literally stated they will be buying new or add-on contracts with the specific intention of staying in existing VGF rooms. Also, whether kids like the resort or not is moot. As you said, if the parents want VGF, then that’s what they are going to buy. Whether the kids will be happy or not, doesn’t matter. They will/are still staying at VGF. Finally, we also have first hand accounts of crowds of kids filling the resort by members right here in this forum, so clearly plenty of young families can afford it, even the cash rooms.

ANYWAY, this has gone around a few too many times for me at this point and I’m getting dizzy.

 

[RoseGold]

So, this is part of what has me, as an original VGF1 owner, worried. There will be much more competition to get the rooms at the original building. It leaves a bit of a bad taste in your mouth…

I think this is going to be tight at peak times, I mean that's why we call them peak times. But I don't think we know enough about how the room mix will go in general. Reality is studios are most popular, including at VGF. Maybe this will help room mix?

I'm a VGF1 owner, a studio or two will work for me and I don't travel peak, so I'm pretty thrilled.

And it's Disney. All of the hotels are completely overrun with kids. That's the point. If you don't want kids at your hotel, don't come to Orlando.

 

[Her Dotness]

I don’t know at this point if it is a “sunk cost” argument for you or not, but by your own admission you haven’t stayed at the resort during summer break in 20 years, and your trips align with the beginning of the school year, when the fewest number of families are visiting.

Seems to me equally likely that those arguing that the GF is popular with families with kids are basing their contention on going in the summer when every resort will be loaded with kids.

Both our perspectives are substantially biased.

My observations during an admittedly low-kid time of year are not my sole basis for concluding that GF/VGF aren't as popular as some here insist.

I've seen more dislike/disinterest in the GF expressed over my dozen years on Disney forums than for any other resort.

It's not as much of a draw as those of us who like the place believe it to be. IMO

Certainly, YMMV.

 

[DonMacGregor]

Seems to me equally likely that those arguing that the GF is popular with families with kids are basing their contention on going in the summer when every resort will be loaded with kids.

That makes no sense. Regardless of when the resort may be filled with kids, the fact that there are enough families purchasing either DVC points or spending cash on rooms to fill the resort at ANY time supports the argument that families with kids DO purchase/stay at VGF in some volume.

The arguments "There are few families with kids buying because I never see them" and "There are families with kids buying, but they stay there when you're not around" are not equally biased. Your argument is that there are few families because you've never seen many (although you can't refute their existence), while the other side side simply says "Yes there are families with kids buying, because we HAVE seen them (or "we are them"). "Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence."

"Bacteria don't exist because I haven't seen them with my naked eye" and "Bacteria do exist because I've seen them through a microscope" aren't equally biased either.

Anyway, this time I really am out.

 

[DougUSMC]

As long as they offer current points for every UY. then you would get 2021 UY points that could be banked into 2022 since March is still in the April 2021 UY.

You would then be limited to using them prior to opening, assuming they are tied to the new rooms,

I bought RIV in October of 2019…it didn’t open until Dec 2019 so I could not use those points for any trip before that December date. Same with BLT. I bought in February with an Aug 4th opening date. I had to wait to start my summer trip to that date or later to use the BLT points.

Now, they didn’t offer Feb UY 2019 points when RIV went on sale which meant those owners didn’t get the points for a year…they didn’t pay MFs though either…so there is a chance they could leave a UY or two out…

9 days to go!

I'm trying to remember how Riviera went, and it's all lost in the blur...

Buying VGF for 2BR is a risky strategy. Half of them are lockoffs. Between the demand for the 1BR and the old studios, maybe they get taken? Or maybe everyone just wants to stay in the new building anyway? Nobody knows how this room mix will work out.

Oh, interesting, thanks for that - I wasn't even going there. So you're saying that we may need to buy additional points, to have enough to either get 2x 1BRs, or a 1BR + a studio...

For the record: We're a family with kids, who love being one stop from the MK by monorail. We are looking to add on at "the nice hotel in MK resort area", which is OUR opinion. I understand most of us love our own resorts - which IMO is one of the best things about Disney!

 

[RamblinWreck]

So, this is part of what has me, as an original VGF1 owner, worried. There will be much more competition to get the rooms at the original building. It leaves a bit of a bad taste in your mouth…

I don't think anyone knows for sure how that will shake out, but it will be interesting to see for sure! And you're definitely not wrong to be worried about it.

It's part of why we sold our GF points last year (the other part being that we could get over $200 a point for them and it seemed like we could probably buy them back direct when VGF2 goes on sale for about the same price if we wanted).

 

[RoseGold]

Oh, interesting, thanks for that - I wasn't even going there. So you're saying that we may need to buy additional points, to have enough to either get 2x 1BRs, or a 1BR + a studio...

VGF1 has 47 2BR lockoffs and 47 2BR dedicated. VGF2 will add a ton of studios, and we don't know what that new room mix will do the demand for larger rooms. Some people here think everyone will still demand the microwaves of VGF1 studios, which would block the lockoffs. And some people think the new buyers will all want 1BR, which would also impact 2BR inventory.

I'll be in the shiny new wing in two connecting studios, which was impossible in the VGF1 room mix.

 

[RamblinWreck]

I'm trying to remember how Riviera went, and it's all lost in the blur...



Oh, interesting, thanks for that - I wasn't even going there. So you're saying that we may need to buy additional points, to have enough to either get 2x 1BRs, or a 1BR + a studio...

For the record: We're a family with kids, who love being one stop from the MK by monorail. We are looking to add on at "the nice hotel in MK resort area", which is OUR opinion. I understand most of us love our own resorts - which IMO is one of the best things about Disney!

We are like you!

A family with young kids who really values being on the monorail, especially while the kids are so small.

And really there are only 2 options. VGF and BLT. And, well, I know this opinion is not a popular one with many, but we have a very low opinion of the Contemporary.

 

[DougUSMC]

VGF1 has 47 2BR lockoffs and 47 2BR dedicated. VGF2 will add a ton of studios, and we don't know what that new room mix will do the demand for larger rooms. Some people here think everyone will still demand the microwaves of VGF1 studios, which would block the lockoffs. And some people think the new buyers will all want 1BR, which would also impact 2BR inventory.

I'll be in the shiny new wing in two connecting studios, which was impossible in the VGF1 room mix.

I guess I have to apologize now, we're likely to be one of those "new VGF2 families that take a 2BR".

I've never tracked VGF availability, how challenging is it to get a 2BR at 11months? We haven't had a problem (pre-COVID craziness) getting them at either CCV or DRR, they seem to be in much less demand than the lesser points rooms. Does that currently hold true for VGF?

We are like you!

A family with young kids who really values being on the monorail, especially while the kids are so small.

And really there are only 2 options. VGF and BLT. And, well, I know this opinion is not a popular one with many, but we have a very low opinion of the Contemporary.

I love BLT for Chef Mickey's but much prefer VGF for the vibe of the resort.
Interesting that you don't list the Poly, any reason?

 

[RoseGold]

I guess I have to apologize now, we're likely to be one of those "new VGF2 families that take a 2BR".

I'll be the VGF1 owner in the new building, so I guess we break even? Historic DVC demand shows there are a lot more of me than you, and that's why studios are always the first booked at all the resorts, well, with a couple outliers, like the OKW 3BR.

The question is whether you are confident enough in 47 rooms being enough availability to risk five figures on it.