VDH Unit and Sales Tracker

[skier_pete]

As tepid as VDH sales seem to be, it's probably 10x what VGC Direct and AUL Direct have been for the last 5+ years, which might be their baseline.

I don't think Disney is at all disappointed with VDH sales. They know it is a different market, that even though Disneyland has more local repeat visitors, they aren't necessarily as moneyed, nor stay at the resort. And there is a lot more argument for not spending the money to stay on-site and have a very similar experience. So it's a bit harder market to sell. And I know some people that were convinced it would sell out in a year, but I think Disney is very happy with steady sales and if it is sold out in 4-6 years.

 

[MartyParty]

I don't think Disney is at all disappointed with VDH sales. They know it is a different market, that even though Disneyland has more local repeat visitors, they aren't necessarily as moneyed, nor stay at the resort. And there is a lot more argument for not spending the money to stay on-site and have a very similar experience. So it's a bit harder market to sell. And I know some people that were convinced it would sell out in a year, but I think Disney is very happy with steady sales and if it is sold out in 4-6 years.

I've been in contact periodically with our guide based at Disneyland. He said management is more than happy with how it's all progressing. Seemed like sales were on track for what they wanted. But one of the major goals was to have a DVC product available to sale in California. This was a major hole that they were trying to fill desiring to have a product available for many years to come.

 

[crvetter]

I don't think Disney is at all disappointed with VDH sales. They know it is a different market, that even though Disneyland has more local repeat visitors, they aren't necessarily as moneyed, nor stay at the resort. And there is a lot more argument for not spending the money to stay on-site and have a very similar experience. So it's a bit harder market to sell. And I know some people that were convinced it would sell out in a year, but I think Disney is very happy with steady sales and if it is sold out in 4-6 years.

I'd also wonder at DLR, where the 3 hotels operate at a higher capacity than the already high industry standard at WDW, if VDH was a way to expand DLR capacity until they sell it out. And more importantly be used as a marketing tool to sell DVC. Basically, the risk of reduced capacity at DLR is lower than WDW, they can fill those rooms at or above the actual operational cost in many market scenarios. We know in reality they have been filling them well above operational cost.

I know DVD is a separate arm of the division; however, that doesn't mean they truly operate independently than each other. I wouldn't be shocked its why you never see the "fire sale" at Riviera because it sells so well on the cash side they don't care right now.

 

[Disney.dad]

Monthly update!

Total points recorded as of June 30th: ~700k points (21.5% of all points).
Points recorded in June: ~24.7k points.

A little under 25k points recorded in June, 24,651 by my estimates. A little bit of a rebound! Highest since Feb 2024 (27.4k), which was likely influnced by a pre-price increase surge in late Jan. I wonder if it's a coincidence that the end-of-incentives period aligns with an uptick in sales. Do some buyers think Disney's pricing strategy is 'prices will increase until morale improves'?

Year over year, down a comical 137k points though. Oh the halcyon days of initial sales.

By my analysis, June was the first month where every contract recorded was at the base price of $239, which went into effect on Feb 1.

At the current rate, VDH will sell out in 104 months, or 8.6 years from now...that's early 2033! Though considering the rate of parks/resorts development, that might actually be a reasonable timeline for the 3rd Disneyland DVC resort being completed as part of DisneylandForever.

The April 1 price/incentive updates were our first indications that maybe DVD wanted to pick up the pace a bit as 200+ point contracts are now available below pre-sales pricing, as long as you qualify for the Welcome Home incentive, but there wasn't a statistically-confident uptick in larger contracts in April. I think that changed in May, with a decent bump in 200+ pt contracts compared to March (similar number of contracts). And it was confirmed in June, with 200+ pt contracts recording at a similar velocity as August 2023, a month with 51k points recorded.

As of April 30th, ~22.3% of points were declared and at least ~21.5% of the resort has now been sold. It appears that DVD took the plunge on May 9 to declare more points, though I don't have the declaration details at this time (due to laziness...the process to mail a check to OCRW is too much for my millenial brain). Because I don't know what's part of the most recent declaration, I don't know how much breathing room they have before declaring more units currently.

The apparent declaration on May 9th is supported by the first Unit 3A deeds showing up on May 28.

As a reminder, I'm just doing ad hoc and monthly updates now.

Fun facts about June's sales:

May was boring. June was less boring!

June set the record for highest pts/contract, at 179.9pt/contract. 2nd place is Feb 2024 at 167.2pt/contract.

The largest contract was 1000 points, and 2nd largest was 550. And someone bought 150 points split across 70pt and 80pt contracts...which child do they like 14% more?!

There wasn't much in terms of FW candidate this month, though.

Unit 3A, which only started appearing in May, was the most recorded unit. 2nd place was Unit 2C, which might have sales winding down.

And maybe only interesting to me: there were no apparent OCR (optical character recognition) issues in the OCRW (Orange County Recorder Works) data! Every contract had a sensible Unit number and tax amount associated for the first time in my entire time tracking VDH sales.

It is likely that a bunch of Units are now sold out: 1B, 1C, 1D, 1F, 1G, 1H, 1J, 2A, and 2B. We still haven't seen 1A show up in any recorded deeds yet.

Other interesting facts about the contracts recorded in June:

• 137 contracts recorded
  • 46x 150pt contracts (40 the prior month)
  • 37x 200pt contracts (25 the prior month)
  • 15x 250pt contracts (7 the prior month)
  • 13x 100pt contracts (8 the prior month)
  • 9x 50pt contracts (9 the prior month)
  • 6x 300pt contracts (7 the prior month)
  • 11x other contracts (8 the prior month)
• 179.9pt average contract size in June
  • May had an average of 128.2pt
  • June had an average of 142.8pt
  • July had an average of 157.2pt
  • August had an average of 152.7pt
  • September had an average of 149.8pt
  • October had an average of 165.1pt
  • November had an average of 164.8pt
  • December had an average of 154.7pt
  • January 2024 had an average of 162.6pt
  • February 2024 had an average of 167.2pt, highest ever
  • March 2024 had an average of 153.1pt
  • April 2024 had an average of 166.6pt
  • May 2024 had an average of 166.8pt
• 1000pt is largest contract in June (1x)
• 50pt is smallest contract
• 300pt is the largest contract size purchased multiple times (6x)
• Unit 3A was assigned the most (12k, 2nd most was 2C at 11.1k)

Points recorded by date:
View attachment 876459
"U" unit stands for "Unknown". This is because OCRW recorded a Unit number with an error and no 'most likely' correct fix. This is most likely due to issues with OCR (optical character recognition) used in their recording process.

View attachment 876460


Points recorded by month:
View attachment 876461

View attachment 876462


View attachment 876463

View attachment 876464

We bought that 70 and that 80 along with a 100 and a 56. 306 points total to equal 1 summer week in a 1 bedroom. So the real question is which of our 3 kids gets the 200 point resale Grand California vs the other 2 getting 150/156 Disneyland Hotel each. That is if we don’t end up deciding to let some Disneyland go at a more resellable smaller contract size and can pick how many points we want to keep with that combination.

 

[ehh]

We bought that 70 and that 80 along with a 100 and a 56. 306 points total to equal 1 summer week in a 1 bedroom. So the real question is which of our 3 kids gets the 200 point resale Grand California vs the other 2 getting 150/156 Disneyland Hotel each. That is if we don’t end up deciding to let some Disneyland go at a more resellable smaller contract size and can pick how many points we want to keep with that combination.

I love that you're a member here and read my little quip about the 70pt and 80pt contracts!! (and thank you for having a good sense of humor about it!)

I didn't see the 100 and 56pt contracts, mostly because I don't normally look at names (nor do I record them in my spreadsheet), but those 70pt and 80pt contracts were the first of their size in the $239 base price era, so they showed up as errors until I updated my tax:oints lookup table. They were also recorded consecutively, so I was curious if they were related and checked to see if the name was the same on both.

Very nice plan with the 56/70/80/100 split!

 

[rentfn]

We've been researching DVC for awhile and got a tour of VDH last weekend and decided to buy. Our contracts lists 1A - 200 points - 0.7549%

 

[MartyParty]

We've been researching DVC for awhile and got a tour of VDH last weekend and decided to buy. Our contracts lists 1A - 200 points - 0.7549%

1A you say?

Hey ehh, was it 1A they were holding back on declarations?

 

[ehh]

We've been researching DVC for awhile and got a tour of VDH last weekend and decided to buy. Our contracts lists 1A - 200 points - 0.7549%

1A!!!

First one I've seen, but I haven't checked OCRW recently.

1A you say?

Hey ehh, was it 1A they were holding back on declarations?

As of my last monthly update, 1A had not shown up in OCRW yet. I gotta check now!

EDIT: nothing on OCRW from 1A yet. But there is a curious Trust Deed/Assignment RNT that has DVD as the grantor and DVC Sales & Services as the grantee--did they effectively sell some points to the sales office? Oh how I wish ordering documents were easier.

 

[rentfn]

I've been reading your reports and noticed 1A wasn't on them. That's why I wanted to share!

 

[AstroBlasters]

Welcome Home!

We've been researching DVC for awhile and got a tour of VDH last weekend and decided to buy. Our contracts lists 1A - 200 points - 0.7549%

 

[ehh]

We've been researching DVC for awhile and got a tour of VDH last weekend and decided to buy. Our contracts lists 1A - 200 points - 0.7549%

I missed the sizing of 1A the first time I read that.

Looks like 1A is between 26,492 - 26,495pts based on that, pretty small!

Looking at the Condo Plan (thank you past @ehh for leaving a link on page 1), it's two Garden Duos and two Garden Studios, which should work out to 34,364pts based on 2024 points charts. Yet another Unit with pretty significantly different points declared compared to what the actual points chart represents.

EDIT: for clarity, across all of Unit 1 (except 1I, I need a contract example from that Unit), the errors offset each other. According to the % listed in contracts, Unit 1 (without 1I) is ~553,434pts and the same Units add up to 550,535pts based on 2024 points chart. This <3k points difference could easily be offset by 1I.

 

[VGCgroupie]

My contracts today are for 1A

 

[AstroBlasters]

My contracts today are for 1A

You did it! Welcome Home!

#TeamHybrid

 

[VGCgroupie]

You did it! Welcome Home!

#TeamHybrid

Yep! Very happy.
Thanks

 

[MartyParty]

Yep! Very happy.
Thanks

Welcome Home! Our next VDH trip is January.

 

[VGCgroupie]

Welcome Home! Our next VDH trip is January.

Thanks!!
We go in Feb

 

[MartyParty]

Thanks!!
We go in Feb

For info, we made our visit VDH stay February this year 2024. Weather was all or nothing. February can be a very wet month for Anaheim. When it was sunny the weather was gorgeous. We had one day like that. The other three days were heavy rain. What we learned is that the locals don't come out in the rain. Not the best weather but it was the only time I've seen the Disney App showing zero-minute wait time for Rise of the Resistance! Zero wait time for most of the rides.

Have a look at the forecast a week or so before you go to get an idea of any rain gear to bring. My DW bought these slip on waterproof shoe covers (pic below). Having your feet dry was a game changer and allowed us to stay in the parks quite a while.

Doesn't have to be these. Important thing is to have some shoes that will keep your feet dry for February if necessary.

Good luck! It'll be fun. It was for us.

 

[VGCgroupie]

For info, we made our visit VDH stay February this year 2024. Weather was all or nothing. February can be a very wet month for Anaheim. When it was sunny the weather was gorgeous. We had one day like that. The other three days were heavy rain. What we learned is that the locals don't come out in the rain. Not the best weather but it was the only time I've seen the Disney App showing zero-minute wait time for Rise of the Resistance! Zero wait time for most of the rides.

Have a look at the forecast a week or so before you go to get an idea of any rain gear to bring. My DW bought these slip on waterproof shoe covers (pic below). Having your feet dry was a game changer and allowed us to stay in the parks quite a while.

Doesn't have to be these. Important thing is to have some shoes that will keep your feet dry for February if necessary.

Good luck! It'll be fun. It was for us.

View attachment 882413

Thanks for the info. Wish I had these when we got poured on at WDW!

 

[ehh]

Monthly update!

Total points recorded as of July 31st: ~735k points (22.6% of all points).
Points recorded in July: ~35.2k points.

A really good month! At 35,167pts (by my estimates), it's the best month since the very end of the initial surge in August 2023!

Last month I speculated that the end-of-incentive periods drive small bumps in sales for buyers trying to avoid a potential increase, but pricing stayed pretty much flat this incentive period, so this might just be organic growth.

At the current rate, VDH will sell out in 72 months, or 6 years from now...and that kind of feels like the right sales pace for VDH. It might actually be a reasonable timeline for the 3rd Disneyland DVC resort being completed as part of DisneylandForever.

The April 1 price/incentive updates were our first indications that maybe DVD wanted to pick up the pace a bit as 200+ point contracts were available below pre-sales pricing, as long as you qualify for the Welcome Home incentive, and that was upheld in the June pricing update. Ever since this pricing strategy, we keep seeing an increase in 200+ pt contracts. So much so that in July 2024, 22.7k points were sold in contracts 200pts or greater, similar to the August 2023 number of 24.5k, but August was a 51k month total!

As of April 30th, ~22.3% of points were declared and at least ~22.6% of the resort has now been sold. It appears that DVD took the plunge on May 9 to declare more points, though I don't have the declaration details at this time (due to laziness...the process to mail a check to OCRW is too much for my millenial brain). Because I don't know what's part of the most recent declaration, I don't know how much breathing room they have before declaring more units currently.

The apparent declaration on May 9th is supported by the first Unit 3A deeds showing up on May 28.

As a reminder, I'm just doing ad hoc and monthly updates now.

Fun facts about July's sales:

July set yet another record for highest pts/contract, at 184.1pt/contract. 2nd place was last month at 179.9pt/contract and 3rd place is Feb 2024 at 167.2pt/contract.

The largest contract was 1000 points, and 2nd largest was 500.

There was one FW candidate, a 122/123pt contract that I suspect is a 122pt W19-20 or W34-36 Standard View Deluxe Studio.

Unit 3A, which only started appearing in May, was the most recorded unit. 2nd place was Unit 2C, which might have sales winding down.

Unit 1A also appeared for the first time! I know we've had 2 members here say they received 1A...that's also how many contracts showed up on OCRW, though more might show up in the coming days considering recording delays.

It is likely that a bunch of Units are now sold out: 1B, 1C, 1D, 1F, 1G, 1H, 1J, 2A, and 2B.

Other interesting facts about the contracts recorded in July:

• 191 contracts recorded
  • 62x 150pt contracts (46 the prior month)
  • 55x 200pt contracts (47 the prior month)
  • 18x 100pt contracts (13 the prior month)
  • 12x 250pt contracts (15 the prior month)
  • 10x 300pt contracts (6 the prior month)
  • 10x 50pt contracts (9 the prior month)
  • 24x other contracts (11 the prior month)
• 184.1pt average contract size in July
  • May had an average of 128.2pt
  • June had an average of 142.8pt
  • July had an average of 157.2pt
  • August had an average of 152.7pt
  • September had an average of 149.8pt
  • October had an average of 165.1pt
  • November had an average of 164.8pt
  • December had an average of 154.7pt
  • January 2024 had an average of 162.6pt
  • February 2024 had an average of 167.2pt, highest ever
  • March 2024 had an average of 153.1pt
  • April 2024 had an average of 166.6pt
  • May 2024 had an average of 166.8pt
  • June 2024 had an average of 179.9pt
• 1000pt is largest contract in July (1x)
• 50pt is smallest contract
• 500pt is the largest contract size purchased multiple times (2x)
• Unit 3A was assigned the most (24.1k, 2nd most was 2C at 8k)

Points recorded by date:

"U" unit stands for "Unknown". This is because OCRW recorded a Unit number with an error and no 'most likely' correct fix. This is most likely due to issues with OCR (optical character recognition) used in their recording process.

Points recorded by month:

 

[sevargas]

Hello! We just purchased yesterday at VDH for 2-100 point contracts.

100 pt -- 1A -- 0.3775% -- 8/10/24 -- Dec UY
100 pt -- 1A -- 0.3775% -- 8/10/24 -- Dec UY