VDH Unit and Sales Tracker

[ehh]

Me wondering if these 15 people realized 250pts is the same cost per point as 200.

My fear with the shift to bigger contracts: more buyers are realizing that Studios are easy(ish) to book most of the year, so buyers are buying specifically for the bigger villas...which is what I did

 

[ehh]

Thank you for the update! We did purchase a FW in June and maybe this data will be helpful? It’s unit 3A for a standard studio in week 48. The total number of points on the contract is 161.

Thanks for sharing!

For background for everyone else, we had a bit of a back and forth over DMs and have come to conclude that there is a new potential source of error in all the numbers I've posted: simple clerical errors on OCRW's site.

I was able to locate @pangyal's contract in the July deeds (which I haven't posted about yet), but it's represented as a 129pt contract on OCRW for some reason. And it's an issue beyond the typical OCR type of issue that can confuse 2B vs. 28, or 1i vs. 11, or 13 vs. 1B. The info on OCRW is simply incorrect.

So, uh, yeah, add that grain of salt to all the numbers I've shared.

 

[pangyal]

The “You had one job” meme comes to mind when I think about OCRW at the moment…

 

[Heroes_or_Villains]

Monthly update!

Total points recorded as of June 30th: ~700k points (21.5% of all points).
Points recorded in June: ~24.7k points.

A little under 25k points recorded in June, 24,651 by my estimates. A little bit of a rebound! Highest since Feb 2024 (27.4k), which was likely influnced by a pre-price increase surge in late Jan. I wonder if it's a coincidence that the end-of-incentives period aligns with an uptick in sales. Do some buyers think Disney's pricing strategy is 'prices will increase until morale improves'?

Year over year, down a comical 137k points though. Oh the halcyon days of initial sales.

By my analysis, June was the first month where every contract recorded was at the base price of $239, which went into effect on Feb 1.

I always love these updates! Thank you for taking the time to do the work and post them!

 

[AstroBlasters]

Thank you for the update! We did purchase a FW in June and maybe this data will be helpful? It’s unit 3A for a standard studio in week 48. The total number of points on the contract is 161.

Do you plan to actually stay in a SV studio for a whole week or was it just for resale value?

 

[pangyal]

Do you plan to actually stay in a SV studio for a whole week or was it just for resale value?

Resale value only. I don’t think we will ever use that room and week, to be honest. We are mostly interested in the garden rooms and 1BD units.

 

[VGCgroupie]

Don’t want to take over this thread but curious if anyone has noticed that there is a particular FW at VDH that is more valuable like RIV’s week 39 and 7?

 

[thadhouse]

Don’t want to take over this thread but curious if anyone has noticed that there is a particular FW at VDH that is more valuable like RIV’s week 39 and 7?

I did a little big of digging on this a few weeks ago.

Week 10 is the best because it is a 3 tier jump in the middle of the week. This year its a 6 point gap for a studio (132 to 138 FW), but in 2029 would cost 146, so you'd come out ahead a lot of years

Week 4 is the next best, because its a 2 tier jump. This year its a 6 point gap (101 vs 107 FW), but 2029 would cost 109 points, so you'd come out ahead by 2 points.

 

[VGCgroupie]

I did a little big of digging on this a few weeks ago.

Week 10 is the best because it is a 3 tier jump in the middle of the week. This year its a 6 point gap for a studio (132 to 138 FW), but in 2029 would cost 146, so you'd come out ahead a lot of years

Week 4 is the next best, because its a 2 tier jump. This year its a 6 point gap (101 vs 107 FW), but 2029 would cost 109 points, so you'd come out ahead by 2 points.

Exactly the info I was looking for. Thanks!! Oddly enough week 7 is actually a week me *may* use but it didnt seem to me to hold the same potential overvalue like the RIV week 7. But I am brand new to looking at point charts

 

[thadhouse]

Exactly the info I was looking for. Thanks!! Oddly enough week 7 is actually a week me *may* use but it didnt seem to me to hold the same potential overvalue like the RIV week 7. But I am brand new to looking at point charts

Yeah the points charts are the trick. The best fixed week deals are weeks where the points chart changes mid week. This is because weekends cost more, and are always in the later half of a fixed week. So if you jump a tier mid week, you can take advantage of fixed week points. The more tiers you jump, the better the deal.

Also important is how the week falls when the fixed week points are calculated. For instance in 2023, week 10 started on march 5th, which falls entirely in tier 3. If instead fixed weeks were computed in 2029, week 10 would be a terrible week, because it'd mostly be all in the higher tier.

2023 in general was a good year for computing fixed weeks, because January 1st was a Sunday. So the week cutoffs aligned for any tiers where the cutoff was a specific week, rather than at the end of a month.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Don’t want to take over this thread but curious if anyone has noticed that there is a particular FW at VDH that is more valuable like RIV’s week 39 and 7?

I like the first week because Disneyland is still decorated for Christmas. It’s actually still in VGC’s high point season.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Every time I talk to a guide at Grand Cal and Aulani, they can’t stop boasting how sales at VDH is crazy hot. I always think about this report and stare at them like hmm really?

 

[ehh]

Every time I talk to a guide at Grand Cal and Aulani, they can’t stop boasting how sales at VDH is crazy hot. I always think about this report and stare at them like hmm really?

As tepid as VDH sales seem to be, it's probably 10x what VGC Direct and AUL Direct have been for the last 5+ years, which might be their baseline.

 

[AstroBlasters]

As tepid as VDH sales seem to be, it's probably 10x what VGC Direct and AUL Direct have been for the last 5+ years, which might be their baseline.

This is good perspective….

 

[AstroBlasters]

Every time I talk to a guide at Grand Cal and Aulani, they can’t stop boasting how sales at VDH is crazy hot. I always think about this report and stare at them like hmm really?

We’ll be headed back to Aulani next month. Any thing important for a mainlander to take into account when visiting?

 

[DonMacGregor]

As tepid as VDH sales seem to be, it's probably 10x what VGC Direct and AUL Direct have been for the last 5+ years, which might be their baseline.

I was going to say something similar, adding that there really does appear to be a new business model post-pandemic. They really do appear to be actively constructing new resorts with the intent of having multiple overlapping direct sales options, while incorporating extended cash sales periods in preference (?) to declaring as many units as possible, as quickly as possible.

I honestly don't think they are in any hurry whatsoever to declare units. Aulani is constantly selling out on the cash side, VDH is as well. They moved VGF quickly but seem content with RR sales. Otherwise, they wouldn't have started the Poly tower when they did (and added the BPK building at VGF), and would never, ever, have even contemplated the Cabins. They build the resort/addition, sell points at whatever modest rate they set, and enjoy dumping operating costs onto the DVC side along with deferred maintenance, all while charging cash rates for what end up be the most expensive cash rooms at the resort.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

We’ll be headed back to Aulani next month. Any thing important for a mainlander to take into account when visiting?

I don’t think much has changed since your last visit. When did you last visit?

 

[HIRyeDVC]

I was going to say something similar, adding that there really does appear to be a new business model post-pandemic. They really do appear to be actively constructing new resorts with the intent of having multiple overlapping direct sales options, while incorporating extended cash sales periods in preference (?) to declaring as many units as possible, as quickly as possible.

I honestly don't think they are in any hurry whatsoever to declare units. Aulani is constantly selling out on the cash side, VDH is as well. They moved VGF quickly but seem content with RR sales. Otherwise, they wouldn't have started the Poly tower when they did (and added the BPK building at VGF), and would never, ever, have even contemplated the Cabins. They build the resort/addition, sell points at whatever modest rate they set, and enjoy dumping operating costs onto the DVC side along with deferred maintenance, all while charging cash rates for what end up be the most expensive cash rooms at the resort.

Disney really does have a different business model for the west coast.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I don’t think much has changed since your last visit. When did you last visit?

A year ago.

 

[DonMacGregor]

Disney really does have a different business model for the west coast.

With Riviera, the Poly Tower, and the Cabins all slated to sell direct concurrently in Florida, I’d say their model has changed everywhere.